Integrated management for sustainable cropping systems: Looking beyond the greenhouse balance at the field scale.

Cover crops (CC) promote the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC), which provides multiple benefits to agro-ecosystems. However, additional nitrogen (N) inputs into the soil could offset the CO2 mitigation potential due to increasing N2 O emissions. Integrated management approaches use organic and synthetic fertilizers to maximize yields while minimizing impacts by crop sequencing adapted to local conditions. The goal of this work was to test whether integrated management, centered on CC adoption, has the potential to maximize SOC stocks without increasing the soil greenhouse gas (GHG) net flux and other agro-environmental impacts such as nitrate leaching. To this purpose, we ran the DayCent bio-geochemistry model on 8,554 soil sampling locations across the European Union. We found that soil N2 O emissions could be limited with simple crop sequencing rules, such as switching from leguminous to grass CC when the GHG flux was positive (source). Additional reductions of synthetic fertilizers applications are possible through better accounting for N available in green manures and from mineralization of soil reservoirs while maintaining cash crop yields. Therefore, our results suggest that a CC integrated management approach can maximize the agro-environmental performance of cropping systems while reducing environmental trade-offs.

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs.

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios - the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

Nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways 4.

Humanity's transformation of the nitrogen cycle has major consequences for ecosystems, climate and human health, making it one of the key environmental issues of our time. Understanding how trends could evolve over the course of the 21st century is crucial for scientists and decision-makers from local to global scales. Scenario analysis is the primary tool for doing so, and has been applied across all major environmental issues, including nitrogen pollution. However, to date most scenario efforts addressing nitrogen flows have either taken a narrow approach, focusing on a singular impact or sector, or have not been integrated within a broader scenario framework - a missed opportunity given the multiple environmental and socio-economic impacts that nitrogen pollution exacerbates. Capitalizing on our expanding knowledge of nitrogen flows, this study introduces a framework for new nitrogen-focused narratives based on the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that include all the major nitrogen-polluting sectors (agriculture, industry, transport and wastewater). These new narratives are the first to integrate the influence of climate and other environmental pollution control policies, while also incorporating explicit nitrogen-control measures. The next step is for them to be used as model inputs to evaluate the impact of different nitrogen production, consumption and loss trajectories, and thus advance understanding of how to address environmental impacts while simultaneously meeting key development goals. This effort is an important step in assessing how humanity can return to the planetary boundary of this essential element over the coming century.

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture.

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture - Eur-Agri-SSPs - to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.

The value of manure - Manure as co-product in life cycle assessment.

Livestock production is important for food security, nutrition, and landscape maintenance, but it is associated with several environmental impacts. To assess the risk and benefits arising from livestock production, transparent and robust indicators are required, such as those offered by life cycle assessment. A central question in such approaches is how environmental burden is allocated to livestock products and to manure that is re-used for agricultural production. To incentivize sustainable use of manure, it should be considered as a co-product as long as it is not disposed of, or wasted, or applied in excess of crop nutrient needs, in which case it should be treated as a waste. This paper proposes a theoretical approach to define nutrient requirements based on nutrient response curves to economic and physical optima and a pragmatic approach based on crop nutrient yield adjusted for nutrient losses to atmosphere and water. Allocation of environmental burden to manure and other livestock products is then based on the nutrient value from manure for crop production using the price of fertilizer nutrients. We illustrate and discuss the proposed method with two case studies.

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks.

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.

The global and regional air quality impacts of dietary change.

Air pollution increases cardiovascular and respiratory-disease risk, and reduces cognitive and physical performance. Food production, especially of animal products, is a major source of methane and ammonia emissions which contribute to air pollution through the formation of particulate matter and ground-level ozone. Here we show that dietary changes towards more plant-based flexitarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets could lead to meaningful reductions in air pollution with health and economic benefits. Using systems models, we estimated reductions in premature mortality of 108,000-236,000 (3-6%) globally, including 20,000-44,000 (9-21%) in Europe, 14,000-21,000 (12-18%) in North America, and 49,000-121,000 (4-10%) in Eastern Asia. We also estimated greater productivity, increasing economic output by USD 0.6-1.3 trillion (0.5-1.1%). Our findings suggest that incentivising dietary changes towards more plant-based diets could be a valuable mitigation strategy for reducing ambient air pollution and the associated health and economic impacts, especially in regions with intensive agriculture and high population density.

The role of nitrogen in achieving sustainable food systems for healthy diets.

The 'food system' urgently needs a sustainable transformation. Two major challenges have to be solved: the food system has to provide food security with healthy, accessible, affordable, safe and diverse food for all, and it has to do so within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries, where the pollution from reactive nitrogen turned out to be the largest bottleneck. Here we argue that thinking strategically about how to balance nitrogen flows throughout the food system will make current food systems more resilient and robust. Looking from a material and a governance perspective on the food system, we highlight major nitrogen losses and policy blind spots originating from a compartmentalization of food system spheres. We conclude that a participatory and integrated approach to manage nitrogen flows throughout the food system is necessary to stay within regional and global nitrogen boundaries, and will additionally provide synergies with a sustainable and healthy diet for all.

A Sustainability Compass for policy navigation to sustainable food systems.

Growing acknowledgement that food systems require transformation, demands comprehensive sustainability assessments that can support decision-making and sustainability governance. To do so, assessment frameworks must be able to make trade-offs and synergies visible and allow for inclusive negotiation on food system outcomes relevant to diverse food system actors. This paper reviews literature and frameworks and builds on stakeholder input to present a Sustainability Compass made up of a comprehensive set of metrics for food system assessments. The Compass defines sustainability scores for four societal goals, underpinned by areas of concern. We demonstrate proof of concept of the operationalization of the approach and its metrics. The Sustainability Compass is able to generate comprehensive food system insights that enables reflexive evaluation and multi-actor negotiation for policy making.

Applying the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production framework to map provisioning ecosystem services and their relation to ecosystem functioning across the European Union.

Human intervention on land enhances the supply of provisioning ecosystem services, but also exerts pressures on ecosystem functioning. We utilize the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) framework to assess these relations in European agriculture, for 220 NUTS2 regions. We put a particular focus on individual land system components, i.e. croplands, grasslands, and livestock husbandry and relate associated biomass flows to the potential net primary productivity NPP. For the reference year 2012, we find that 469 g dm/m2/yr (38% of NPPpot) of used biomass were harvested on total agricultural land, and that one tonne of annually harvested biomass is associated with 1.67 tonnes dry matter (dm) of HANPP, ranging from 0.8 to 8.1 tonnes dry matter (dm) across all regions. EU livestock systems are a large consumer of these provisioning ecosystem services, and invoking higher HANPP flows than current HANPP on cropland and grassland within the EU, even exceeding the potential NPP in one fifth of all NUTS2 regions. NPP remaining in ecosystems after provisioning society with biomass is essential for the functioning of ecosystems and is 563 g dm/m2/yr or 46% of NPPpot on all agricultural land. We conclude from our analysis that the HANPP framework provides useful indicators that should be integrated in future ecosystem service assessments.

Implications of a food system approach for policy agenda-setting design.

A call to governments to enact a strategy for a sustainable food system is high on the global agenda. A sustainable food system presupposes a need to go beyond a view of the food system as linear and narrow, to comprehend the food system as dynamic and interlinked, which involves understanding social, economic and ecological outcomes and feedbacks of the system. As such, it should be accompanied by strategic, collaborative, transparent, inclusive, and reflexive agenda-setting process. The concepts of, directionality relating to an agreed vision for a future sustainable food system, and, reflexivity which describes the capacity for critical deliberation and responsiveness, are particularly important. Based on those concepts, this paper proposes an evaluative framework to assess tools and instruments applied during the agenda-setting stage. We apply the evaluative framework to recent food policy processes in Finland and Sweden, revealing that their agenda-setting design cannot be assessed as fully addressing both directionality and reflexivity, thus possibly falling short of the policy design needed for enable more transformative policy approaches.

Sustainable food system policies need to address environmental pressures and impacts: The example of water use and water stress.

Sustainable food systems are high on the political and research agendas. One of the three pillars of sustainability is environmental sustainability. We argue that, when defining related policies, such as policies under the European Green Deal, both environmental pressures and impacts carry important and complementary information and should be used in combination. Although the environmental focus of a sustainable food system is to have a positive or neutral impact on the natural environment, addressing pressures is necessary to achieve this goal. We show this by means of the pressure water use (or water footprint) and its related impact water stress, by means of different arguments: 1) Water use and water stress are only weakly correlated; 2) water use can be evaluated towards a benchmark, addressing resource efficiency; 3) water use is used for resource allocation assessments within or between economic sectors; 4) water amounts are needed to set fair share amounts for citizens, regions, countries or on a global level 5) the pressure water use requires less data, whereas water stress assessments have more uncertainty and 6) both provide strong communication tools to citizens, including for food packaging labelling. As a result, we present a water quantity sustainability scheme, that addresses both water use and water stress, and can be used in support of food system policies, including food package labelling.

Unveiling the potential for an efficient use of nitrogen along the food supply and consumption chain.

Ensuring global food security is one of the challenges of our society. Nitrogen availability is key for food production, while contributing to different environmental impacts. This paper aims firstly to assess nitrogen flows and to highlight hotspots of inefficient use of nitrogen along the European food chain, excluding primary production. Secondly, it aims to analyse the potential for reducing the identified inefficiencies and increase nitrogen circularity. A baseline and three scenarios-reflecting waste targets reported in EU legislation and technological improvements- are analysed. Results highlighted a potential to reduce reactive nitrogen emissions up to more than 45%. However, this would imply the conversion of reactive nitrogen in molecular nitrogen, such as urea, before re-entering in the food chain. Techniques to harvest reactive nitrogen directly from urine and wastewater are considered promising to increase nitrogen use efficiency along the food chain.

Environmental footprint family to address local to planetary sustainability and deliver on the SDGs.

The number of publications on environmental footprint indicators has been growing rapidly, but with limited efforts to integrate different footprints into a coherent framework. Such integration is important for comprehensive understanding of environmental issues, policy formulation and assessment of trade-offs between different environmental concerns. Here, we systematize published footprint studies and define a family of footprints that can be used for the assessment of environmental sustainability. We identify overlaps between different footprints and analyse how they relate to the nine planetary boundaries and visualize the crucial information they provide for local and planetary sustainability. In addition, we assess how the footprint family delivers on measuring progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), considering its ability to quantify environmental pressures along the supply chain and relating them to the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and ecosystem services. We argue that the footprint family is a flexible framework where particular members can be included or excluded according to the context or area of concern. Our paper is based upon a recent workshop bringing together global leading experts on existing environmental footprint indicators.

Multicompartmental fate of persistent substances. Comparison of predictions from multi-media box models and a multicompartment chemistry-atmospheric transport model.

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Modelling of the fate of environmental chemicals can be done by relatively simple multi-media box models or using complex atmospheric transport models. It was the aim of this work to compare the results obtained for both types of models using a small set of non-ionic and non-polar or moderately polar organic chemicals, known to be distributed over long distances. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Predictions of multimedia exposure models of different types, namely three multimedia mass-balance box models (MBMs), two in the steady state and one in the non-steady state mode, and one non-steady state multicompartment chemistry-atmospheric transport model (MCTM), are compared for the first time. The models used are SimpleBox, Chemrange, the MPI-MBM and the MPI-MCTM. The target parameters addressed are compartmental distributions (i.e. mass fractions in the compartments), overall environmental residence time (i.e. overall persistence and eventually including other final sinks, such as loss to the deep sea) and a measure for the long-range transport potential. These are derived for atrazine, benz-[a]-pyrene, DDT, alpha and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane, methyl parathion and various modes of substance entry into the model world. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Compartmental distributions in steady state were compared. Steady state needed 2-10 years to be established in the MCTM. The highest fraction of the substances in air is predicted by the MCTM. Accordingly, the other models predict longer substance persistence in most cases. The results suggest that temperature affects the compartmental distribution more in the box models, while it is only one among many climate factors acting in the transport model. The representation of final sinks in the models, e.g. burial in the sediment, is key for model-based compartmental distribution and persistence predictions. There is a tendency of MBMs to overestimate substance sinks in air and to underestimate atmospheric transport velocity as a consequence of the neglection of the temporal and spatial variabilities of these parameters. Therefore, the long-range transport potential in air derived from MCTM simulations exceeds the one from Chemrange in most cases and least for substances which undergo slow degradation in air. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: MBMs should be improved such as to ascertain that the significance of the atmosphere for the multicompartmental cycling is not systematically underestimated. Both types of models should be improved such as to cover degradation in air in the particle-bound state and transport via ocean currents. A detailed understanding of the deviations observed in this work and elsewhere should be gained and multimedia fate box models could then be 'tuned in' to match better the results of comprehensive multicompartmental transport models.

Complementing the topsoil information of the Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) with modelled N2O emissions.

Two objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy post-2013 (CAP, 2014-2020) in the European Union (EU) are the sustainable management of natural resources and climate smart agriculture. To understand the CAP impact on these priorities, the Land Use/Cover statistical Area frame Survey (LUCAS) employs direct field observations and soil sub-sampling across the EU. While a huge amount of information can be retrieved from LUCAS points for monitoring the environmental status of agroecosystems and assessing soil carbon sequestration, a fundamental aspect relating to climate change action is missing, namely nitrous oxide (N2O) soil emissions. To fill this gap, we ran the DayCent biogeochemistry model for more than 11'000 LUCAS sampling points under agricultural use, assessing also the model uncertainty. The results showed that current annual N2O emissions followed a skewed distribution with a mean and median values of 2.27 and 1.71 kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively. Using a Random Forest regression for upscaling the modelled results to the EU level, we estimated direct soil emissions of N2O in the range of 171-195 Tg yr-1 of CO2eq. Moreover, the direct regional upscaling using modelled N2O emissions in LUCAS points was on average 0.95 Mg yr-1 of CO2eq. per hectare, which was within the range of the meta-model upscaling (0.92-1.05 Mg ha-1 yr-1 of CO2eq). We concluded that, if information on management practices would be made available and model bias further reduced by N2O flux measurement at representative LUCAS points, the combination of the land use/soil survey with a well calibrated biogeochemistry model may become a reference tool to support agricultural, environmental and climate policies.

Formation of nitrate and sulfate in the plume of Berlin.

BACKGROUND, AIMS AND SCOPE: Secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), i.e. particulate sulphate (S(VI)), ammonium and nitrate (N(V)), is formed from gaseous precursors, i.e. sulfur dioxide (S(IV)), ammonia and nitrogen oxides, in polluted air on the time-scale of hours to days. Besides particulate ammonium and nitrate, the respective gaseous species ammonia and nitric acid can be formed as well. SIA contributes significantly to elevated levels of respirable particulate matter in urban areas and in strongly anthropogenically influenced air in general. METHODS: The near-ground aerosol chemical composition was studied at two stationary sites in the vicinity of Berlin during a field campaign in the summer of 1998. By means of analysis of the wind field, two episodes were identified which allow one to study changes within individual air masses during transport, i.e. a Lagrangian type of experiment, with one station being upwind and the other downwind of the city. By reference to a passive tracer (Na+) and estimates on dry depositional losses, the influences of dispersion and mixing on concentration changes can be eliminated from the data analysis. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Chemical changes were observed in N(-III), N(V) and S(VI) species. SIA, i.e. N(V) and S(VI), was formed from emissions in the city within a few hours. Furthermore, the significance of emissions in the city was confirmed by the lacking SIA formation in the case of transport around the city. For the two episodes, SIA formation rates could be derived, albeit not more precisely than by an order of magnitude. N(V) formation rates were between 1.4 and 20 and between 1.9 and 59% h(-1) on the two days, respectively, and S(VI) formation rates were >17 and >10% h(-1). The area south of the city was identified as a source of ammonia. CONCLUSION: The probability of occurrence of situations during which the downwind site (50 km downwind of Berlin) would be hit by an urban plume is > 7.4%. Furthermore, for the general case of rural areas in Germany, it is estimated that there is a significant probability to be hit by an urban plume (>8%, corresponding to >1 month per year) for more than half of these. The S(VI) formation rates are higher than explainable by homogeneous, gas-phase chemistry and suggest the involvement of heterogeneous reactions of aerosol particles. RECOMMENDATION AND OUTLOOK: The possible contribution of heterogeneous processes to S(VI) formation should be addressed in laboratory studies. Measurements at more than two sites could improve the potential of Lagrangian field experiments for the quantification of atmospheric chemical transformations, if a second downwind site is chosen in such a way that, at least under particularly stable conditions, measurements there are representative for the source area.