A mathematical, classical stratification modeling approach to disentangling the impact of weather on infectious diseases: A case study using spatio-temporally disaggregated Campylobacter surveillance data for England and Wales.

Disentangling the impact of the weather on transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for health protection, preparedness and prevention. Because weather factors are co-incidental and partly correlated, we have used geography to separate out the impact of individual weather parameters on other seasonal variables using campylobacteriosis as a case study. Campylobacter infections are found worldwide and are the most common bacterial food-borne disease in developed countries, where they exhibit consistent but country specific seasonality. We developed a novel conditional incidence method, based on classical stratification, exploiting the long term, high-resolution, linkage of approximately one-million campylobacteriosis cases over 20 years in England and Wales with local meteorological datasets from diagnostic laboratory locations. The predicted incidence of campylobacteriosis increased by 1 case per million people for every 5° (Celsius) increase in temperature within the range of 8°-15°. Limited association was observed outside that range. There were strong associations with day-length. Cases tended to increase with relative humidity in the region of 75-80%, while the associations with rainfall and wind-speed were weaker. The approach is able to examine multiple factors and model how complex trends arise, e.g. the consistent steep increase in campylobacteriosis in England and Wales in May-June and its spatial variability. This transparent and straightforward approach leads to accurate predictions without relying on regression models and/or postulating specific parameterisations. A key output of the analysis is a thoroughly phenomenological description of the incidence of the disease conditional on specific local weather factors. The study can be crucially important to infer the elusive mechanism of transmission of campylobacteriosis; for instance, by simulating the conditional incidence for a postulated mechanism and compare it with the phenomenological patterns as benchmark. The findings challenge the assumption, commonly made in statistical models, that the transformed mean rate of infection for diseases like campylobacteriosis is a mere additive and combination of the environmental variables.

The effect of community water fluoridation on dental caries in children and young people in England: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: The protective effect of community water fluoridation (CWF) against dental caries may be modified by secular changes in health behaviour. We aimed to determine the contemporary association between fluoride in public water supplies (PWS) and dental caries indicators and inequalities in England. METHODS: We estimated exposure to CWF and PWS fluoride concentrations from national monitoring data, using Geographic Information Systems and water supply boundaries, categorizing mean period exposure into <0.1, 0.1-<0.2, 0.2-<0.4, 0.4-<0.7 and ≥0.7 mg/l. We used area-level health outcome and confounder data in multivariable regression models to determine the association between fluoride and caries outcomes and calculated preventive fractions using these coefficients. RESULTS: The odds of caries and of severe caries in 5-year-olds fell with increasing fluoride concentration in all SES quintiles (P < 0.001 to P = 0.003). There was a negative trend between increasing fluoride concentration and dental extractions (P < 0.001). Compared to PWS with <0.2 mg/l, CWF prevented 17% (95% confidence interval (CI): 5-27%) to 28% (95% CI: 24-32%) of caries (high-low SES) and 56% (95% CI: 25-74%) of dental extractions. The association between fluoride concentration and caries prevalence/severity varied by socioeconomic status (SES) (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to fluoride in PWS appears highly protective against dental caries and reduces oral health inequalities.

The role of outdoor and indoor air quality in the spread of SARS-CoV-2: Overview and recommendations by the research group on COVID-19 and particulate matter (RESCOP commission).

There are important questions surrounding the potential contribution of outdoor and indoor air quality in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and perpetuation of COVID-19 epidemic waves. Environmental health may be a critical component of COVID-19 prevention. The public health community and health agencies should consider the evolving evidence in their recommendations and statements, and work to issue occupational guidelines. Evidence coming from the current epidemiological and experimental research is expected to add knowledge about virus diffusion, COVID-19 severity in most polluted areas, inter-personal distance requirements and need for wearing face masks in indoor or outdoor environments. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for maintaining particulate matter concentrations at low levels for multiple health-related reasons, which may also include the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Indoor environments represent even a more crucial challenge to cope with, as it is easier for the SARS-COV2 to spread, remain vital and infect other subjects in closed spaces in the presence of already infected asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people. The potential merits of preventive measures, such as CO2 monitoring associated with natural or controlled mechanical ventilation and air purification, for schools, indoor public places (restaurants, offices, hotels, museums, theatres/cinemas etc.) and transportations need to be carefully considered. Hospital settings and nursing/retirement homes as well as emergency rooms, infectious diseases divisions and ambulances represent higher risk indoor environments and may require additional monitoring and specific decontamination strategies based on mechanical ventilation or air purification.

'As safe as houses; the risk of childhood lead exposure from housing in England and implications for public health'.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Exposure to lead can harm a child's health, including damage to the nervous system, delayed growth, hearing loss, and many other adverse health effects, as well as implications for social, economic, educational and social well-being. Lead exposure in children is still a concern and cases require public health management to find the exposure source and interrupt the exposure pathway. Housing characteristics can indicate the presence of lead-contaminated paint and leaded water supply pipes. We aimed to explore the relationship between housing characteristics and elevated blood lead concentration (BLC) in children in England. METHODS: We used a retrospective cohort design and included all cases of lead exposure in children reported to the UK Health Security Agency between 2014 and 2020 via surveillance. A case was a child aged under 16 years, resident in England, BLC of ≥ 0.48 µmol/L (10 µg/dL) and referred for public health management. We collected case demographic details and housing characteristics (age and type). We explored associations between elevated BLC and risk factors, using generalised linear mixed effects models and compared cases' housing type to that expected nationally. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-six out of 290 cases met the case definition. There was no difference in BLCs between genders, age groups, deprivation, and housing type. After adjusting for reporting source, housing age and type, cases residing in housing built pre-1976 had a BLC of 0.32 (95%CI 0.02, 0.63) µmols/L (6.63 (95%CI 0.42, 13.0) µg/dL) higher than cases living in housing built after this time. Cases were 1.68 times more likely to be living in terraced housing (housing adjoined to one another) than other children and less likely to live in apartments and detached properties. CONCLUSION: This study suggests an association between housing characteristics and BLC in children. Housing age and type may act as a proxy for lead exposure risk through exposure to leaded paint, lead water pipes, and lead contaminated dust from indoor and outdoor sources. Public health action should consider targeting families more at risk in older housing by raising awareness of the potential presence of lead pipes and paint. Interventions should include working with wider stakeholders including other housing and environmental professionals, the private sector, as well as parents and carers.

Predicting the potential distribution of a near-extinct avian predator on the Arabian Peninsula: implications for its conservation management.

Species distribution models (SDMs) generate predicted distribution maps which can be used as effective tools for conservation purposes. The persistence of isolated populations at the margin of a large distributional area depends on local threats which may differ from those faced by the main population. Environmental predictors can indicate suitable areas for these species and, indirectly, evaluate the impact on peripheral populations due to fragmentation and isolation. The Lanner Falcon (Falco biarmicus) is an Afro-tropical and Mediterranean polytypic species considered critically endangered (CR) in Arabian Peninsula by IUCN, but a lack of published information about its distribution persists. Here, we model the distribution of the Lanner Falcon in the Arabian Peninsula using nest-site data and map its core area and their habitat suitability using a robust algorithm with good prediction accuracy even at low sample sizes (MaxEnt). The predictive map suggests a potential distribution of the Lanner Falcons that runs from north to south along the eastern coast of the Red Sea. The Terrain Roughness Index contributed the most to the breeding range model predictions (57.6%), followed by isothermality (Bio3, 15.3%). The model suggests a tendency by Lanner Falcons to occupy areas with a low terrain complexity according to their behavioural patterns and breeding strategies. In addition, this falcon is highly sensitive to climate occupying high isothermal regions in order to avoid extreme heating events. Overall, predictive models indicate a narrow range of suitable environmental conditions for breeding as well restricted favourable areas during dispersal and migration. Thus, these small and fragmented populations are more likely prone to anthropogenic factors and must be buffered against them.

Temporal trends and demographic risk factors for hospital admissions due to carbon monoxide poisoning in England.

Unintentional non-fire related (UNFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological data on UNFR CO poisoning can help monitor changes in the magnitude of this burden, particularly through comparisons of multiple countries, and to identify vulnerable sub-groups of the population which may be more at risk. Here, we collected data on age- and sex- specific number of hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of UNFR CO poisoning in England (2002-2016), aggregated to small areas, alongside area-level characteristics (i.e. deprivation, rurality and ethnicity). We analysed temporal trends using piecewise log-linear models and compared them to analogous data obtained for Canada, France, Spain and the US. We estimated age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants by area-level characteristics using the WHO standard population (2000-2025). We then fitted the Besag York Mollie (BYM) model, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model, to assess the independent effect of each area-level characteristic on the standardized risk of hospitalization. Temporal trends showed significant decreases after 2010. Decreasing trends were also observed across all countries studied, yet France had a 5-fold higher risk. Based on 3399 UNFR CO poisoning hospitalizations, we found an increased risk in areas classified as rural (0.69, 95% CrI: 0.67; 0.80), highly deprived (1.77, 95% CrI: 1.66; 2.10) or with the largest proportion of Asian (1.15, 95% CrI: 1.03; 1.49) or Black population (1.35, 95% CrI: 1.20; 1.80). Our multivariate approach provides strong evidence for the identification of vulnerable populations which can inform prevention policies and targeted interventions.

Case epidemiology from the first three years of a pilot laboratory-based surveillance system for elevated blood-lead concentrations among children in England, 2014-17: implications for public health action.

BACKGROUND: Children incur lead toxicity even at low blood-lead concentrations (BLCs), and testing in England is opportunistic. We described epidemiology of cases notified to a passive laboratory-based surveillance system (SS), the Lead Poisoning in Children (LPIC) SS to inform opportunities to prevent lead exposure in children in England. METHODS: Surveillance population: children <16 years of age and resident in England during the reporting period September 2014-17. Case definition: children with BLC ≥0.48 µmol/l (10 µg/dl). We extracted case demographic/location data and linked it with laboratory, area-level population and socio-economic status (SES) data. We described case BLCs and calculated age-, gender- and SES-specific notification rates, and age-sex standardised regional notification rates. RESULTS: Between 2014 and 2017 there were 86 newly notified cases, giving an annual average notification rate of 2.76 per million children aged 0-15 years. Regionally, rates varied from 0.36 to 9.89 per million. Rates were highest in the most deprived quintile (5.38 per million), males (3.75 per million) and children aged 1-4 years (5.89 per million). CONCLUSIONS: Males, children aged 1-4 years, and children in deprived areas may be at higher risk, and could be targeted for primary prevention. Varied regional notification rates suggest differences in clinician awareness of lead exposure and risk factors; guidelines standardising the indications for BLC-testing may assist secondary prevention.

The English National Cohort Study of Flooding & Health: psychological morbidity at three years of follow up.

BACKGROUND: Flooding is expected to increase due to climate change, population growth and urban development. The longer-term mental health impacts of flooding are not well understood. In 2015, the English National Study of Flooding and Health was established to improve understanding of the impact of flooding on health and inform future public health action. METHODS: We used 3 years of data from the English National Study of Flooding and Health. Participants who had consented to follow up were sent a questionnaire. Participants were classified into either "unaffected", "disrupted" or "flooded" according to their exposure. Logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for probable depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in each exposure group. The Wald test was used to assess the difference in probable mental health outcomes for those who did and did not experience "persistent damage" to their home. Conditional logistic regression was conducted to assess change in prevalence over the 3 years and to identify possible determinants of recovery. RESULTS: Eight hundred nineteen individuals were included in the final analysis - 119 were classified as unaffected, 421 disrupted and 279 flooded. Overall, 5.7% had probable depression, 8.1% had probable anxiety and 11.8% had probable PTSD, with higher prevalence in the flooded group compared with the unaffected group. After adjustment for potential confounders, probable mental health outcomes were higher in the flooded group compared to the unaffected group, significantly for probable depression (aOR 8.48, 95% CI 1.04-68.97) and PTSD (aOR 7.74, 95% CI 2.24-26.79). Seventy-seven (9.4%) participants reported experiencing persistent damage to their home, most commonly damp (n = 40) and visible mould (n = 26) in liveable rooms. Of the 569 participants who responded at all 3 years, a significant reduction in prevalence for all probable mental health outcomes was observed in the flooded group. CONCLUSIONS: Flooding can have severe long-lasting consequences on mental health in affected populations. If these problems are not identified and treated early, they may persist for years. Further research is necessary to develop and evaluate interventions to increase resilience in at risk populations and to ensure timely access to support services following flooding.

The English National Cohort Study of Flooding and Health: the change in the prevalence of psychological morbidity at year two.

BACKGROUND: The longer term impact of flooding on health is poorly understood. In 2015, following widespread flooding in the UK during winter 2013/14, Public Health England launched the English National Study of Flooding and Health. The study identified a higher prevalence of probable psychological morbidity one year after exposure to flooding. We now report findings after two years. METHODS: In year two (2016), a self-assessment questionnaire including flooding-related exposures and validated instruments to screen for probable anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was sent to all participants who consented to further follow-up. Participants exposure status was categorised according to responses in year one; we assessed for exposure to new episodes of flooding and continuing flood-related problems in respondents homes. We calculated the prevalence and odds ratio for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. We used the McNemar test to assess change in outcomes between year one and year two. RESULTS: In year two, 1064 (70%) people responded. The prevalence of probable psychological morbidity remained elevated amongst flooded participants [n = 339] (depression 10.6%, anxiety 13.6%, PTSD 24.5%) and disrupted participants [n = 512] (depression 4.1%, anxiety 6.4%, PTSD 8.9%), although these rates were reduced compared to year one. A greater reduction in anxiety 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6-9.9) was seen than depression 3.8% (95% CI 1.5-6.1) and PTSD: 6.6% (95% CI 3.9-9.2). Exposure to flooding was associated with a higher odds of anxiety (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.2 95%, 95% CI 1.7-16.3) and depression (aOR 8.7, 95% CI 1.9-39.8) but not PTSD. Exposure to disruption caused by flooding was not significantly associated with probable psychological morbidity. Persistent damage in the home as a consequence of the original flooding event was reported by 119 participants (14%). The odds of probable psychological morbidity amongst flooded participants who reported persistent damage, compared with those who were unaffected, were significantly higher than the same comparison amongst flooded participants who did not report persistent damage. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a continuance of probable psychological morbidity at least two years following exposure to flooding. Commissioners and providers of health and social care services should be aware that the increased need in populations may be prolonged. Efforts to resolve persistent damage to homes may reduce the risk of probable psychological morbidity.

Environmental and health data needed to develop national surveillance systems in industrially contaminated sites.

BACKGROUND: this paper is based upon work from COST Action ICSHNet. Public health surveillance (PHS) of industrially contaminated sites (ICSs) is likely to play a role in supporting the monitoring of harmful aspects of ICSs and related interventions. Environmental public health tracking (EPHT) has been proposed and developed as an approach to PHS when environmental factors affecting health are involved. OBJECTIVES: to identify existing arrangements for continuous collection and analysis of environmental and health data to guide the development of an optimal EPHT approach which would support the characterization of the impact on health of ICS. METHODS: a literature search was conducted in PubMed following a structured approach to identify methodological aspects relevant to surveillance of ICSs. In addition, eight further studies on this topic, mainly from three European Countries (Spain, Italy, and France), were included by the research team. RESULTS: the identified 17 examples of surveillance studies include a heterogeneous variety of industrial activities, covering from cross-national to local scenarios. Continuous monitoring systems for gathering environmental data related to ICSs were used only in two cases; a qualitative approach and/or punctual sampling for soil, air, and water of local foodstuff took place in the rest. Exposure assessment was conducted according to four main methods: qualitative definition for the presence/absence of a source, distance to a source, dispersion modelling, and biomonitoring. Health data relied on routinely vital statistics, hospital admission records, specific morbidity registers, and cancer and congenital abnormalities registries. DISCUSSION: our revision identified an overall lack of national surveillance programmes of ICSs, rather than gaps in individual dimensions of surveillance. The epidemiological approaches reviewed provided methods, some of which could be adopted for an EPHT in ICSs. However, a large proportion of examples suffers from poor exposure characterization, relying on a qualitative definition approach, which cannot account for the multiple pathways that take place in ICSs. Use of more individual data from health registries combined with improved environmental data collection and exposure assessment would improve future surveillance.

The English national cohort study of flooding and health: cross-sectional analysis of mental health outcomes at year one.

BACKGROUND: In winter 2013/14 there was widespread flooding in England. Previous studies have described an increased prevalence of psychological morbidity six months after flooding. Disruption to essential services may increase morbidity however there have been no studies examining whether those experiencing disruption but not directly flooded are affected. The National Study of Flooding and Health was established in order to investigate the longer-term impact of flooding and related disruptions on mental health and wellbeing. METHODS: In year one we conducted a cross sectional analysis of people living in neighbourhoods affected by flooding between 1 December 2013 and 31 March 2014. 8761 households were invited to participate. Participants were categorised according to exposure as flooded, disrupted by flooding or unaffected. We used validated instruments to screen for probable psychological morbidity, the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ 2), Generalised Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-2) and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) checklist (PCL-6). We calculated prevalence and odds ratios for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: 2126 people (23%) responded. The prevalence of psychological morbidity was elevated amongst flooded participants ([n = 622] depression 20.1%, anxiety 28.3%, PTSD 36.2%) and disrupted participants ([n = 1099] depression 9.6%, anxiety 10.7% PTSD 15.2%). Flooding was associated with higher odds of all outcomes (adjusted odds ratios (aORs), 95% CIs for depression 5.91 (3.91-10.99), anxiety 6.50 (3.77-11.24), PTSD 7.19 (4.33-11.93)). Flooded participants who reported domestic utilities disruption had higher odds of all outcomes than other flooded participants, (aORs, depression 6.19 (3.30-11.59), anxiety 6.64 (3.84-11.48), PTSD 7.27 (4.39-12.03) aORs without such disruption, depression, 3.14 (1.17-8.39), anxiety 3.45 (1.45-8.22), PTSD 2.90 (1.25-6.73)). Increased floodwater depth was significantly associated with higher odds of each outcome. Disruption without flooding was associated with borderline higher odds of anxiety (aOR 1.61 (0.94-2.77)) and higher odds of PTSD 2.06 (1.27-3.35)) compared with unaffected participants. Disruption to health/social care and work/education was also associated with higher odds of psychological morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an insight into the impact of flooding on mental health, suggesting that the impacts of flooding are large, prolonged and extend beyond just those whose homes are flooded.

An International Comparison of the Instigation and Design of Health Registers in the Epidemiological Response to Major Environmental Health Incidents.

CONTEXT: Epidemiological preparedness is vital in providing relevant, transparent, and timely intelligence for the management, mitigation, and prevention of public health impacts following major environmental health incidents. A register is a set of records containing systematically collected, standardized data about individual people. Planning for a register of people affected by or exposed to an incident is one of the evolving tools in the public health preparedness and response arsenal. OBJECTIVE: We compared and contrasted the instigation and design of health registers in the epidemiological response to major environmental health incidents in England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States. DESIGN: Consultation with experts from the 5 nations, supplemented with a review of gray and peer-reviewed scientific literature to identify examples where registers have been used. SETTING: Populations affected by or at risk from major environmental health incidents in England, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States. METHODS: Nations were compared with respect to the (1) types of major incidents in their remit for considering a register; (2) arrangements for triggering a register; (3) approaches to design of register; (4) arrangements for register implementation; (5) uses of registers; and (6) examples of follow-up studies. RESULTS: Health registers have played a key role in the effective public health response to major environmental incidents, including sudden chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear, as well as natural, more prolonged incidents. Value has been demonstrated in the early and rapid deployment of health registers, enabling the capture of a representative population. CONCLUSION: The decision to establish a health register must ideally be confirmed immediately or soon after the incident using a set of agreed criteria. The establishment of protocols for the instigation, design, and implementation of health registers is recommended as part of preparedness activities. Key stakeholders must be aware of the importance of, and protocols for, establishing a register.Agencies will find value in preparing and implementing registers as part of an effective public health response to major environmental incidents, including sudden chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear incidents, as well as natural, more prolonged incidents.

Decision support for risk prioritisation of environmental health hazards in a UK city.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing appreciation of the proportion of the health burden that is attributed to modifiable population exposure to environmental health hazards. To manage this avoidable burden in the United Kingdom (UK), government policies and interventions are implemented. In practice, this procedure is interdisciplinary in action and multi-dimensional in context. Here, we demonstrate how Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used as a decision support tool to facilitate priority setting for environmental public health interventions within local authorities. We combine modelling and expert elicitation to gather evidence on the impacts and ranking of interventions. METHODS: To present the methodology, we consider a hypothetical scenario in a UK city. We use MCDA to evaluate and compare the impact of interventions to reduce the health burden associated with four environmental health hazards and rank them in terms of their overall performance across several criteria. For illustrative purposes, we focus on heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution, remediation to control levels of indoor radon, carbon monoxide and fitting alarms, and encouraging cycling to target the obesogenic environment. Regional data was included as model evidence to construct a ratings matrix for the city. RESULTS: When MCDA is performed with uniform weights, the intervention of heavy goods vehicle controls to reduce outdoor air pollution is ranked the highest. Cycling and the obesogenic environment is ranked second. CONCLUSIONS: We argue that a MCDA based approach provides a framework to guide environmental public health decision makers. This is demonstrated through an online interactive MCDA tool. We conclude that MCDA is a transparent tool that can be used to compare the impact of alternative interventions on a set of pre-defined criteria. In our illustrative example, we ranked the best intervention across the equally weighted selected criteria out of the four alternatives. Further work is needed to test the tool with decision makers and stakeholders.

Analysis of hospital admissions due to accidental non-fire-related carbon monoxide poisoning in England, between 2001 and 2010.

BACKGROUND: Accidental non-fire-related (ANFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a cause of fatalities and hospital admissions. This is the first study that describes the characteristics of ANFR CO hospital admissions in England. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) inpatient data for England between 2001 and 2010 were used. ANFR CO poisoning admissions were defined as any mention of ICD-10 code T58: toxic effect of CO and X47: accidental poisoning by gases or vapours, excluding ICD-10 codes potentially related to fires (X00-X09, T20-T32 and Y26). RESULTS: There were 2463 ANFR CO admissions over the 10-year period (annual rate: 0.49/100 000); these comprised just under half (48.7%) of all non-fire-related (accidental and non-accidental) CO admissions. There was seasonal variability, with more admissions in colder winter months. Higher admission rates were observed in the north of England. Just over half (53%) of ANFR admissions were male, and the highest rates of ANFR admissions were in those aged >80 years. CONCLUSION: The burden of ANFR CO poisoning is preventable. The results of this study suggest an appreciable burden of CO and highlight differences that may aid targeting of public health interventions.

Polymorphisms in DNA repair genes XRCC1 and XRCC3, occupational exposure to arsenic and sunlight, and the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer in a European case-control study.

X-ray repair cross-complementing group 1 (XRCC1) and group 3 (XRCC3) polymorphisms are relatively frequent in Caucasian populations and may have implications in skin cancer modulation. A few studies have evaluated their association with non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), but the results are inconsistent. In the current study, we aim to assess the impact of XRCC1 R399Q and XRCC3 T241M polymorphisms on the risk of NMSC associated with sunlight and arsenic exposure. Study participants consist of 618 new cases of NMSC and 527 hospital-based controls frequency matched on age, sex, and county of residence from Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. Adjusted effects are estimated using multivariable logistic regression. The results indicate an increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) for the homozygous variant genotype of XRCC1 R399Q (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.14-5.65) and a protective effect against basal cell carcinoma (BCC) for the homozygous variant genotype of XRCC3 T241M (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.41-0.92), compared with the respective homozygous common genotypes. Significant interactions are detected between XRCC3 T241M and sunlight exposure at work, and between XRCC3 T241M and exposure to arsenic in drinking water (p-value for interaction <0.10). In conclusion, the current study demonstrates that polymorphisms in XRCC genes may modify the associations between skin cancer risk and exposure to sunlight or arsenic. Given the high prevalence of genetic polymorphisms modifying the association between exposure to environmental carcinogens and NMSC, these results are of substantial relevance to public health.

Indicators to support local public health to reduce the impacts of heat on health.

Heat exposure presents a significant weather-related health risk in England and Wales, and is associated with acute impacts on mortality and adverse effects on a range of clinical conditions, as well as increased healthcare costs. Most heat-related health outcomes are preventable with health protection measures such as behavioural changes, individual cooling actions, and strategies implemented at the landscape level or related to improved urban infrastructure. We review current limitations in reporting systems and propose ten indicators to monitor changes in heat exposures, vulnerabilities, heat-health outcomes, and progress on adaptation actions. These indicators can primarily inform local area decision-making in managing risks across multiple sectors such as public health, adult and social care, housing, urban planning, and education. The indicators can be used alongside information on other vulnerabilities relevant for heat and health such as underlying morbidity or housing characteristics, to prioritise the most effective adaptation actions for those who need it the most.

Occupational exposure to arsenic and risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer in a multinational European study.

Occupational studies show a high risk of lung cancer related to arsenic exposure by inhalation; however, only a few studies, and with conflicting results, previously examined a potential link between arsenic exposure at work and skin cancer. The aim of this study is to assess airborne arsenic exposures at the workplace and to quantify associations with nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The study sample consists of 618 incident cases of NMSC and 527 hospital-based controls aged 30-79 years from Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. Exposures were evaluated by local experts using occupational histories. Information on host factors and other exposures was collected and used to adjust the associations of interest using multivariable logistic regression. The lifetime prevalence of exposure to work-related arsenic is 23.9% for cases and 15.5% for controls. No significant association between arsenic exposure in the workplace and NMSC was detected, although an increased adjusted odd ratio was observed for participants with higher cumulative lifetime workplace exposure to arsenic in dust and fumes compared to referents [odds ratios (OR) = 1.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.76-4.95]. There is evidence for modification of the workplace arsenic-NMSC association by work-related sunlight exposure in women, with a markedly increased adjusted OR in the presence of workplace sunlight exposure (OR = 10.22, 95% CI = 2.48-42.07). Workplace coexposure to arsenic and sunlight may thus pose an increased risk of NMSC.

Sports Utility Vehicles: A Public Health Model of Their Climate and Air Pollution Impacts in the United Kingdom.

The emission benefits of shifting towards battery electric vehicles have so far been hampered by a trend towards sports utility vehicles (SUVs). This study assesses the current and future emissions from SUVs and their potential impact on public health and climate targets. We modelled five scenarios of varying SUV sales and electrification rates, and projected associated carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the relationship between vehicle characteristics and emissions. Cumulative CO2 emissions were valued using the social cost of carbon approach. Life table analyses were used to project and value life years saved from NOx emission reductions. Larger SUVs were disproportionately high emitters of CO2 and NOx. Replacing these with small SUVs achieved significant benefits, saving 702 MtCO2e by 2050 and 1.8 million life years from NO2 reductions. The largest benefits were achieved when combined with electrification, saving 1181 MtCO2e and gaining 3.7 million life years, with a societal value in the range of GBP 10-100s billion(s). Downsizing SUVs could be associated with major public health benefits from reduced CO2 and NOx emissions, in addition to the benefits of electrification. This could be achieved by demand-side mass-based vehicle taxation and supply-side changes to regulations, by tying emission limits to a vehicle's footprint rather than its mass.

Spatial and temporal trends and risk factors for intentional carbon monoxide poisoning hospitalizations in England between 2002 and 2016.

INTRODUCTION: Suicide and mental health disorders are a recognized increasing public concern. Most suicide prevention rely on evidence from mortality data, although suicide attempts are a better predictor for completed suicides. Understanding spatio-temporal patterns and demographic profiles of people at risk can improve suicide prevention schemes, including for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, a common method for gas-related suicides. OBJECTIVE: Describe spatio-temporal patterns of intentional CO poisoning hospitalization rates in England between 2002 and 2016, and identify population sub-groups at risk. METHODS: We used NHS Digital's Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) routinely collected data on hospital admissions for intentional CO poisoning. We estimated age-standardised rates (ASR) by year, gender and residential small-area characteristics, including rural/urban, deprivation and ethnic composition. Temporal trends were assessed through linear regression and joinpoint regression analysis. Regional differences were explored. RESULTS: On average, we identified 178 hospital admissions for intentional CO poisoning per year. The ASR decreased substantially over the study period, particularly among males (average annual percent change of -7.8 % (95 % CI: -11.0; -4.6)), in comparison to 3.9 % (95%CI, -6.4; -1.4) among females. Most admissions (81 %) occurred in males. White men aged 35-44 years were particularly at risk. The ASR in London (0.08/100,000) was almost six times lower than in the South-West (0.47/100,000). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel insights into attempted suicides by intentional CO poisoning. Further prevention interventions, targeting sub-groups at risk (i.e. white men in their 30s/40s), need to be developed and implemented to reduce the burden of suicides and of CO poisoning.