A Longitudinal Study of COVID-19 Sequelae and Immunity: Baseline Findings.

BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of persons who develop COVID-19 report persistent symptoms after acute illness. Various pathophysiologic mechanisms have been implicated in the pathogenesis of postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). OBJECTIVE: To characterize medical sequelae and persistent symptoms after recovery from COVID-19 in a cohort of disease survivors and controls. DESIGN: Cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04411147). SETTING: National Institutes of Health Clinical Center, Bethesda, Maryland. PARTICIPANTS: Self-referred adults with laboratory-documented SARS-CoV-2 infection who were at least 6 weeks from symptom onset were enrolled regardless of presence of PASC. A control group comprised persons with no history of COVID-19 or serologic evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, recruited regardless of their current health status. Both groups were enrolled over the same period and from the same geographic area. MEASUREMENTS: All participants had the same evaluations regardless of presence of symptoms, including physical examination, laboratory tests and questionnaires, cognitive function testing, and cardiopulmonary evaluation. A subset also underwent exploratory immunologic and virologic evaluations. RESULTS: 189 persons with laboratory-documented COVID-19 (12% of whom were hospitalized during acute illness) and 120 antibody-negative control participants were enrolled. At enrollment, symptoms consistent with PASC were reported by 55% of the COVID-19 cohort and 13% of control participants. Increased risk for PASC was noted in women and those with a history of anxiety disorder. Participants with findings meeting the definition of PASC reported lower quality of life on standardized testing. Abnormal findings on physical examination and diagnostic testing were uncommon. Neutralizing antibody levels to spike protein were negative in 27% of the unvaccinated COVID-19 cohort and none of the vaccinated COVID-19 cohort. Exploratory studies found no evidence of persistent viral infection, autoimmunity, or abnormal immune activation in participants with PASC. LIMITATIONS: Most participants with COVID-19 had mild to moderate acute illness that did not require hospitalization. The prevalence of reported PASC was likely overestimated in this cohort because persons with PASC may have been more motivated to enroll. The study did not capture PASC that resolved before enrollment. CONCLUSION: A high burden of persistent symptoms was observed in persons after COVID-19. Extensive diagnostic evaluation revealed no specific cause of reported symptoms in most cases. Antibody levels were highly variable after COVID-19. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Antigenic Restimulation of Virus-Specific Memory CD8+ T Cells Requires Days of Lytic Protein Accumulation for Maximal Cytotoxic Capacity.

In various infections or vaccinations of mice or humans, reports of the persistence and the requirements for restimulation of the cytotoxic mediators granzyme B (GrB) and perforin (PRF) in CD8+ T cells have yielded disparate results. In this study, we examined the kinetics of PRF and GrB mRNA and protein expression after stimulation and associated changes in cytotoxic capacity in virus-specific memory cells in detail. In patients with controlled HIV or cleared respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or influenza virus infections, all virus-specific CD8+ T cells expressed low PRF levels without restimulation. Following stimulation, they displayed similarly delayed kinetics for lytic protein expression, with significant increases occurring by days 1 to 3 before peaking on days 4 to 6. These increases were strongly correlated with, but were not dependent upon, proliferation. Incremental changes in PRF and GrB percent expression and mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) were highly correlated with increases in HIV-specific cytotoxicity. mRNA levels in HIV-specific CD8+ T-cells exhibited delayed kinetics after stimulation as with protein expression, peaking on day 5. In contrast to GrB, PRF mRNA transcripts were little changed over 5 days of stimulation (94-fold versus 2.8-fold, respectively), consistent with posttranscriptional regulation. Changes in expression of some microRNAs, including miR-17, miR-150, and miR-155, suggested that microRNAs might play a significant role in regulation of PRF expression. Therefore, under conditions of extremely low or absent antigen levels, memory virus-specific CD8+ T cells require prolonged stimulation over days to achieve maximal lytic protein expression and cytotoxic capacity.IMPORTANCE Antigen-specific CD8+ T cells play a major role in controlling most virus infections, primarily by perforin (PRF)- and granzyme B (GrB)-mediated apoptosis. There is considerable controversy regarding whether PRF is constitutively expressed, rapidly increased similarly to a cytokine, or delayed in its expression with more prolonged stimulation in virus-specific memory CD8+ T cells. In this study, the degree of cytotoxic capacity of virus-specific memory CD8+ T cells was directly proportional to the content of lytic molecules, which required antigenic stimulation over several days for maximal levels. This appeared to be modulated by increases in GrB transcription and microRNA-mediated posttranscriptional regulation of PRF expression. Clarifying the requirements for maximal cytotoxic capacity is critical to understanding how viral clearance might be mediated by memory cells and what functions should be induced by vaccines and immunotherapies.

Underdiagnoses of Rickettsia in patients hospitalized with acute fever in Indonesia: observational study results.

BACKGROUND: Reports of human rickettsial infection in Indonesia are limited. This study sought to characterize the epidemiology of human rickettsioses amongst patients hospitalized with fever at 8 tertiary hospitals in Indonesia. METHODS: Acute and convalescent blood from 975 hospitalized non-dengue patients was tested for Rickettsia IgM and IgG by ELISA. Specimens from cases with seroconversion or increasing IgM and/or IgG titers were tested for Rickettsia IgM and IgG by IFA and Rickettsia genomes using primers for Rickettsia (R.) sp, R. typhi, and Orientia tsutsugamushi. Testing was performed retrospectively on stored specimens; results did not inform patient management. RESULTS: R. typhi, R. rickettsii, and O. tsutsugamushi IgG antibodies were identified in 269/872 (30.8%), 36/634 (5.7%), and 19/504 (3.8%) of samples, respectively. For the 103/975 (10.6%) non-dengue patients diagnosed with acute rickettsial infection, presenting symptoms included nausea (72%), headache (69%), vomiting (43%), lethargy (33%), anorexia (32%), arthralgia (30%), myalgia (28%), chills (28%), epigastric pain (28%), and rash (17%). No acute rickettsioses cases were suspected during hospitalization. Discharge diagnoses included typhoid fever (44), dengue fever (20), respiratory infections (7), leptospirosis (6), unknown fever (6), sepsis (5), hepatobiliary infections (3), UTI (3), and others (9). Fatalities occurred in 7 (6.8%) patients, mostly with co-morbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Rickettsial infections are consistently misdiagnosed, often as leptospirosis, dengue, or Salmonella typhi infection. Clinicians should include rickettsioses in their differential diagnosis of fever to guide empiric management; laboratories should support evaluation for rickettsial etiologies; and public policy should be implemented to reduce burden of disease.

Organic Cation Transporter 3 Facilitates Fetal Exposure to Metformin during Pregnancy.

Metformin, an oral antihyperglycemic, is increasingly being prescribed to pregnant women with gestational diabetes. Metformin is a hydrophilic cation and relies on organic cation transporters to move across cell membranes. We previously demonstrated that human and mouse placentas predominantly express organic cation transporter 3 (OCT3), but the impact of this transporter on maternal and fetal disposition of metformin is unknown. Using immunofluorescence colocalization studies in term human placenta, we showed that OCT3 is localized to the basal (fetal-facing) membrane of syncytiotrophoblast cells with no expression on the apical (maternal-facing) membrane. OCT3 positive staining was also observed in fetal capillaries. To determine the in vivo role of OCT3 in maternal and fetal disposition of metformin, we determined metformin maternal pharmacokinetics and overall fetal exposure in wild-type and Oct3-null pregnant mice. After oral dosing of [14C]metformin at gestational day 19, the systemic drug exposure (AUC0-∞) in maternal plasma was slightly reduced by ∼16% in the Oct3-/- pregnant mice. In contrast, overall fetal AUC0-∞ was reduced by 47% in the Oct3-/- pregnant mice. Consistent with our previous findings in nonpregnant mice, metformin tissue distribution was respectively reduced by 70% and 52% in the salivary glands and heart in Oct3-/- pregnant mice. Our in vivo data in mice clearly demonstrated a significant role of Oct3 in facilitating metformin fetal distribution and exposure during pregnancy. Modulation of placental OCT3 expression or activity by gestational age, genetic polymorphism, or pharmacological inhibitors may alter fetal exposure to metformin or other drugs transported by OCT3.

Case-only approach to identifying markers predicting treatment effects on the relative risk scale.

Retrospectively measuring markers on stored baseline samples from participants in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) may provide high quality evidence as to the value of the markers for treatment selection. Originally developed for approximating gene-environment interactions in the odds ratio scale, the case-only method has recently been advocated for assessing gene-treatment interactions on rare disease endpoints in randomized clinical trials. In this article, the case-only approach is shown to provide a consistent and efficient estimator of marker by treatment interactions and marker-specific treatment effects on the relative risk scale. The prohibitive rare-disease assumption is no longer needed, broadening the utility of the case-only approach. The case-only method is resource-efficient as markers only need to be measured in cases only. It eliminates the need to model the marker's main effect, and can be used with any parametric or nonparametric learning method. The utility of this approach is illustrated by an application to genetic data in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trial.

A risk-based measure of time-varying prognostic discrimination for survival models.

Prognostic survival models are commonly evaluated in terms of both their calibration and their discrimination. Comparing observed and predicted survival curves can assess calibration, while discrimination is typically summarized through comparison of the properties of cases or subjects who experience an event, and the properties of controls represented by event-free individuals. For binary data, discrimination is characterized either by using the relative ranks of cases and controls and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, or by summarizing the magnitude of risk placed on cases and controls through calculation of the discrimination slope (DS). In this article, we propose a risk-based measure of time-varying discrimination that generalizes the discrimination slope to allow use with incident events and hazard models. We refer to the new measure as the hazard discrimination summary (HDS) since it compares the relative risk among incident cases to their associated dynamic risk set controls. We introduce both a model-based estimation procedure that adopts the Cox model, and an alternative approach that locally relaxes the proportional hazards assumption. We illustrate the proposed methods using both a benchmark survival data set, and an oncology study where primary interest is in the time-varying performance of candidate biomarkers.

Taste of a pill: organic cation transporter-3 (OCT3) mediates metformin accumulation and secretion in salivary glands.

Drug-induced taste disturbance is a common adverse drug reaction often triggered by drug secretion into saliva. Very little is known regarding the molecular mechanisms underlying salivary gland transport of xenobiotics, and most drugs are assumed to enter saliva by passive diffusion. In this study, we demonstrate that salivary glands selectively and highly express OCT3 (organic cation transporter-3), a polyspecific drug transporter in the solute carrier 22 family. OCT3 protein is localized at both basolateral (blood-facing) and apical (saliva-facing) membranes of salivary gland acinar cells, suggesting a dual role of this transporter in mediating both epithelial uptake and efflux of organic cations in the secretory cells of salivary glands. Metformin, a widely used anti-diabetic drug known to induce taste disturbance, is transported by OCT3/Oct3 in vitro. In vivo, metformin was actively transported with a high level of accumulation in the salivary glands of wild-type mice. In contrast, active uptake and accumulation of metformin in salivary glands were abolished in Oct3(-/-) mice. Oct3(-/-) mice also showed altered metformin pharmacokinetics and reduced drug exposure in the heart. These results demonstrate that OCT3 is responsible for metformin accumulation and secretion in salivary glands. Our study uncovered a novel carrier-mediated pathway for drug entry into saliva and sheds new light on the molecular mechanisms underlying drug-induced taste disorders.

Testing the missing at random assumption in generalized linear models in the presence of instrumental variables.

Practical problems with missing data are common, and many methods have been developed concerning the validity and/or efficiency of statistical procedures. On a central focus, there have been longstanding interests on the mechanism governing data missingness, and correctly deciding the appropriate mechanism is crucially relevant for conducting proper practical investigations. In this paper, we present a new hypothesis testing approach for deciding between the conventional notions of missing at random and missing not at random in generalized linear models in the presence of instrumental variables. The foundational idea is to develop appropriate discrepancy measures between estimators whose properties significantly differ only when missing at random does not hold. We show that our testing approach achieves an objective data-oriented choice between missing at random or not. We demonstrate the feasibility, validity, and efficacy of the new test by theoretical analysis, simulation studies, and a real data analysis.

Pandemic-Related Post-traumatic Stress Symptomatology in COVID-19 Patients with and without Post-COVID Conditions.

Trauma and stressor-related symptoms have been frequently reported during the COVID-19 pandemic. Few studies compare post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) between patients and non-infected controls. Using data from an ongoing natural history study of COVID-19, this study compared PTSS between patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 during the first year of the pandemic and controls. Within the COVID-19 patient cohort, we also compared PTSS between patients with and without post-COVID conditions, also known as post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). This study also examined the association of PTSS with trait resilience and prior trauma exposure. PTSS were assessed using the Impact of Event Scaled-Revised (IES-R), which has a validated probable PTSD cutoff (score ≥33). The results showed that patients (n=131) reported significantly higher IES-R scores than controls (n=82) and had significantly higher odds of having scores indicative of PTSD [AOR: 4.17 p: 0.029]. IES-R scores among PASC patients (n=68) were significantly elevated compared to patients without PASC (n=63) and PASC patients did not have higher odds for probable PTSD [AOR: 2.60; p: 0.14]. Trait resilience was associated with lower PTSS. These findings help characterize the mental health impact of the COVID-19 illness experience and highlight elevated PTSS in patients with persistent post-COVID conditions.

An influenza hemagglutinin stem nanoparticle vaccine induces cross-group 1 neutralizing antibodies in healthy adults.

Influenza vaccines could be improved by platforms inducing cross-reactive immunity. Immunodominance of the influenza hemagglutinin (HA) head in currently licensed vaccines impedes induction of cross-reactive neutralizing stem-directed antibodies. A vaccine without the variable HA head domain has the potential to focus the immune response on the conserved HA stem. This first-in-human dose-escalation open-label phase 1 clinical trial (NCT03814720) tested an HA stabilized stem ferritin nanoparticle vaccine (H1ssF) based on the H1 HA stem of A/New Caledonia/20/1999. Fifty-two healthy adults aged 18 to 70 years old enrolled to receive either 20 µg of H1ssF once (n = 5) or 60 µg of H1ssF twice (n = 47) with a prime-boost interval of 16 weeks. Thirty-five (74%) 60-µg dose participants received the boost, whereas 11 (23%) boost vaccinations were missed because of public health restrictions in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The primary objective of this trial was to evaluate the safety and tolerability of H1ssF, and the secondary objective was to evaluate antibody responses after vaccination. H1ssF was safe and well tolerated, with mild solicited local and systemic reactogenicity. The most common symptoms included pain or tenderness at the injection site (n = 10, 19%), headache (n = 10, 19%), and malaise (n = 6, 12%). We found that H1ssF elicited cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies against the conserved HA stem of group 1 influenza viruses, despite previous H1 subtype head-specific immunity. These responses were durable, with neutralizing antibodies observed more than 1 year after vaccination. Our results support this platform as a step forward in the development of a universal influenza vaccine.

HIV vaccines induce CD8+ T cells with low antigen receptor sensitivity.

Current HIV vaccines designed to stimulate CD8+ T cells have failed to induce immunologic control upon infection. The functions of vaccine-induced HIV-specific CD8+ T cells were investigated here in detail. Cytotoxic capacity was significantly lower than in HIV controllers and was not a consequence of low frequency or unaccumulated functional cytotoxic proteins. Low cytotoxic capacity was attributable to impaired degranulation in response to the low antigen levels present on HIV-infected targets. The vaccine-induced T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire was polyclonal and transduction of these TCRs conferred the same reduced functions. These results define a mechanism accounting for poor antiviral activity induced by these vaccines and suggest that an effective CD8+ T cell response may require a vaccination strategy that drives further TCR clonal selection.

An alternative method for quantifying coronary artery calcification: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Extent of atherosclerosis measured by amount of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in computed tomography (CT) has been traditionally assessed using thresholded scoring methods, such as the Agatston score (AS). These thresholded scores have value in clinical prediction, but important information might exist below the threshold, which would have important advantages for understanding genetic, environmental, and other risk factors in atherosclerosis. We developed a semi-automated threshold-free scoring method, the spatially weighted calcium score (SWCS) for CAC in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). METHODS: Chest CT scans were obtained from 6814 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The SWCS and the AS were calculated for each of the scans. Cox proportional hazards models and linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations of the scores with CHD events and CHD risk factors. CHD risk factors were summarized using a linear predictor. RESULTS: Among all participants and participants with AS > 0, the SWCS and AS both showed similar strongly significant associations with CHD events (hazard ratios, 1.23 and 1.19 per doubling of SWCS and AS; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.30 and 1.14 to 1.26) and CHD risk factors (slopes, 0.178 and 0.164; 95% CI, 0.162 to 0.195 and 0.149 to 0.179). Even among participants with AS = 0, an increase in the SWCS was still significantly associated with established CHD risk factors (slope, 0.181; 95% CI, 0.138 to 0.224). The SWCS appeared to be predictive of CHD events even in participants with AS = 0, though those events were rare as expected. CONCLUSIONS: The SWCS provides a valid, continuous measure of CAC suitable for quantifying the extent of atherosclerosis without a threshold, which will be useful for examining novel genetic and environmental risk factors for atherosclerosis.

Correction: An observational prospective cohort study of the epidemiology of hospitalized patients with acute febrile illness in Indonesia.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007927.].

Safety and immunogenicity of a trivalent virus-like particle vaccine against western, eastern, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis viruses: a phase 1, open-label, dose-escalation, randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Western (WEEV), eastern (EEEV), and Venezuelan (VEEV) equine encephalitis viruses are mosquito-borne pathogens classified as potential biological warfare agents for which there are currently no approved human vaccines or therapies. We aimed to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of an investigational trivalent virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine, western, eastern, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis (WEVEE) VLP, composed of WEEV, EEEV, and VEEV VLPs. METHODS: The WEVEE VLP vaccine was evaluated in a phase 1, randomised, open-label, dose-escalation trial at the Hope Clinic of the Emory Vaccine Center at Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. Eligible participants were healthy adults aged 18-50 years with no previous vaccination history with an investigational alphavirus vaccine. Participants were assigned to a dose group of 6 µg, 30 µg, or 60 µg vaccine product and were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive the WEVEE VLP vaccine with or without aluminium hydroxide suspension (alum) adjuvant by intramuscular injection at study day 0 and at week 8. The primary outcomes were the safety and tolerability of the vaccine (assessed in all participants who received at least one administration of study product) and the secondary outcome was immune response measured as neutralising titres by plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT) 4 weeks after the second vaccination. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03879603. FINDINGS: Between April 2, 2019, and June 13, 2019, 30 trial participants were enrolled (mean age 32 years, range 21-48; 16 [53%] female participants and 14 [47%] male participants). Six groups of five participants each received 6 µg, 30 µg, or 60 µg vaccine doses with or without adjuvant, and all 30 participants completed study follow-up. Vaccinations were safe and well tolerated. The most frequently reported symptoms were mild injection-site pain and tenderness (22 [73%] of 30) and malaise (15 [50%] of 30). Dose-dependent differences in the frequency of pain and tenderness were found between the 6 µg, 30 µg, and 60 µg groups (p=0·0217). No significant differences were observed between dosing groups for any other reactogenicity symptom. Two adverse events (mild elevated blood pressure and moderate asymptomatic neutropenia) were assessed as possibly related to the study product in one trial participant (60 µg dose with alum); both resolved without clinical sequelae. 4 weeks after second vaccine administration, neutralising antibodies were induced in all study groups with the highest response seen against all three vaccine antigens in the 30 µg plus alum group (PRNT80 geometric mean titre for EEEV 60·8, 95% CI 29·9-124·0; for VEEV 111·5, 49·8-249·8; and for WEEV 187·9, 90·0-392·2). Finally, 4 weeks after second vaccine administration, for all doses, the majority of trial participants developed an immune response to all three vaccine components (24 [83%] of 29 for EEEV; 26 [90%] of 29 for VEEV; 27 [93%] of 29 for WEEV; and 22 [76%] of 29 for EEEV, VEEV, and WEEV combined). INTERPRETATION: The favourable safety profile and neutralising antibody responses, along with pressing public health need, support further evaluation of the WEVEE VLP vaccine in advanced-phase clinical trials. FUNDING: The Vaccine Research Center of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health funded the clinical trial. The US Department of Defense contributed funding for manufacturing of the study product.

Safety and immunogenicity of a ferritin nanoparticle H2 influenza vaccine in healthy adults: a phase 1 trial.

Currently, licensed seasonal influenza vaccines display variable vaccine effectiveness, and there remains a need for novel vaccine platforms capable of inducing broader responses against viral protein domains conserved among influenza subtypes. We conducted a first-in-human, randomized, open-label, phase 1 clinical trial ( NCT03186781 ) to evaluate a novel ferritin (H2HA-Ferritin) nanoparticle influenza vaccine platform. The H2 subtype has not circulated in humans since 1968. Adults born after 1968 have been exposed to only the H1 subtype of group 1 influenza viruses, which shares a conserved stem with H2. Including both H2-naive and H2-exposed adults in the trial allowed us to evaluate memory responses against the conserved stem domain in the presence or absence of pre-existing responses against the immunodominant HA head domain. Fifty healthy participants 18-70 years of age received H2HA-Ferritin intramuscularly as a single 20-µg dose (n = 5) or a 60-µg dose either twice in a homologous (n = 25) prime-boost regimen or once in a heterologous (n = 20) prime-boost regimen after a matched H2 DNA vaccine prime. The primary objective of this trial was to evaluate the safety and tolerability of H2HA-Ferritin either alone or in prime-boost regimens. The secondary objective was to evaluate antibody responses after vaccination. Both vaccines were safe and well tolerated, with the most common solicited symptom being mild headache after both H2HA-Ferritin (n = 15, 22%) and H2 DNA (n = 5, 25%). Exploratory analyses identified neutralizing antibody responses elicited by the H2HA-Ferritin vaccine in both H2-naive and H2-exposed populations. Furthermore, broadly neutralizing antibody responses against group 1 influenza viruses, including both seasonal H1 and avian H5 subtypes, were induced in the H2-naive population through targeting the HA stem. This ferritin nanoparticle vaccine technology represents a novel, safe and immunogenic platform with potential application for pandemic preparedness and universal influenza vaccine development.

Performance Analysis of the National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score in the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial Cohort.

We sought to validate prognostic scores in coronavirus disease 2019 including National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and age-based modifications, and define their performance characteristics. DESIGN: We analyzed prospectively collected data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. National Early Warning Score was collected daily during the trial, Modified Early Warning Score was calculated, and age applied to both scores. We assessed prognostic value for the end points of recovery, mechanical ventilation, and death for score at enrollment, average, and slope of score over the first 48 hours. SETTING: A multisite international inpatient trial. PATIENTS: A total of 1,062 adult nonpregnant inpatients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia. INTERVENTIONS: Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 randomized participants to receive remdesivir or placebo. The prognostic value of predictive scores was evaluated in both groups separately to assess for differential performance in the setting of remdesivir treatment. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.60-0.68), and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.66-0.74). For recovery, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated somewhat better prognostic ability (c-index, 0.65-0.69); however, National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age further improved performance (c-index, 0.68-0.71). For deterioration, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.59-0.69) and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.63-0.70). All prognostic performance improvements due to addition of age were significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 cohort, National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated moderate prognostic performance in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019, with improvement in predictive ability for National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age. Area under receiver operating curve for National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score improved in patients receiving remdesivir versus placebo early in the pandemic for recovery and mortality. Although these scores are simple and readily obtainable in myriad settings, in our data set, they were insufficiently predictive to completely replace clinical judgment in coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve best as an adjunct to triage, disposition, and resourcing decisions.

Etiologies of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and misdiagnosis of influenza in Indonesia, 2013-2016.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) accounts for a large burden of illness in Indonesia. However, epidemiology of SARI in tertiary hospitals in Indonesia is unknown. This study sought to assess the burden, clinical characteristics, and etiologies of SARI and concordance of clinical diagnosis with confirmed etiology. METHODS: Data and samples were collected from subjects presenting with SARI as part of the acute febrile Illness requiring hospitalization study (AFIRE). In tertiary hospitals, clinical diagnosis was ascertained from chart review. Samples were analyzed to determine the "true" etiology of SARI at hospitals and Indonesia Research Partnership on Infectious Diseases (INA-RESPOND) laboratory. Distribution and characteristics of SARI by true etiology and accuracy of clinical diagnosis were assessed. RESULTS: Four hundred and twenty of 1464 AFIRE subjects presented with SARI; etiology was identified in 242 (57.6%), including 121 (28.8%) viruses and bacteria associated with systemic infections, 70 (16.7%) respiratory bacteria and viruses other than influenza virus, and 51 (12.1%) influenza virus cases. None of these influenza patients were accurately diagnosed as having influenza during hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza was misdiagnosed among all patients presenting with SARI to Indonesian tertiary hospitals in the AFIRE study. Diagnostic approaches and empiric management should be guided by known epidemiology. Public health strategies to address the high burden of influenza should include broad implementation of SARI screening, vaccination programs, clinician education and awareness campaigns, improved diagnostic capacity, and support for effective point-of-care tests.