Early warning and predicting of COVID-19 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression model and negative binomial regression model.

BACKGROUND: It is difficult to detect the outbreak of emergency infectious disease based on the exiting surveillance system. Here we investigate the utility of the Baidu Search Index, an indicator of how large of a keyword is in Baidu's search volume, in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19. METHODS: The daily number of cases and the Baidu Search Index of 8 keywords (weighted by population) from December 1, 2019 to March 15, 2020 were collected and analyzed with times series and Spearman correlation with different time lag. To predict the daily number of COVID-19 cases using the Baidu Search Index, Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used in phase 1 and negative binomial regression model was used in phase 2 and phase 3 based on the characteristic of independent variable. RESULTS: The Baidu Search Index of all keywords in Wuhan was significantly higher than Hubei (excluded Wuhan) and China (excluded Hubei). Before the causative pathogen was identified, the search volume of "Influenza" and "Pneumonia" in Wuhan increased with the number of new onset cases, their correlation coefficient was 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. After the pathogen was public but before COVID-19 was classified as a notifiable disease, the search volume of "SARS", "Pneumonia", "Coronavirus" in all study areas increased with the number of new onset cases with the correlation coefficient was 0.69 ~ 0.89, while "Influenza" changed to negative correlated (rs: -0.56 ~ -0.64). After COVID-19 was closely monitored, the Baidu Search Index of "COVID-19", "Pneumonia", "Coronavirus", "SARS" and "Mask" could predict the epidemic trend with 15 days, 5 days and 6 days lead time, respectively in Wuhan, Hubei (excluded Wuhan) and China (excluded Hubei). The predicted number of cases would increase 1.84 and 4.81 folds, respectively than the actual number of cases in Wuhan and Hubei (excluded Wuhan) from 21 January to 9 February. CONCLUSION: The Baidu Search Index could be used in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19, but the search keywords changed in different period. Considering the time lag from onset to diagnosis, especially in the areas with medical resources shortage, internet search data can be a highly effective supplement of the existing surveillance system.

Effects of NAD+ precursors on blood pressure, C-reactive protein concentration and carotid intima-media thickness: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: There are contradictory effects regarding the effect of NAD+ precursor on blood pressure and inflammation. In order to obtain a better viewpoint from them, this study aimed to comprehensively investigate the effects of NAD+ precursor supplementation on blood pressure, C-reactive protein (CRP) and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). METHODS: PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science, SCOPUS and Embase databases were searched using standard keywords to identify all controlled trials investigating the effects of NAD+ precursor on blood pressure, CRP and CIMT. Pooled weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were achieved by random-effects model analysis for the best estimation of outcomes. RESULTS: Twenty-nine articles (with 8664 participants) were included in this article. Results from meta-analyses of RCTs from random-effects models indicated a significant reduction in systolic (SBP) (weighted mean difference (WMD): -2.54 mmHg, p < .001) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (WMD: -2.15 mmHg, p < .001), as well as in CRP (WMD: -.93 mg/L, 95% CI -1.47 to -.40, p < .001) concentrations and CIMT (WMD: -.01 mm, 95% CI -.02 to -.00, p = .005) with the NAD+ precursors supplementation compared with the control group. In addition, a greater effect of supplementation with NAD+ precursors in reducing blood pressure (BP) were observed with the highest dose (≥2 g) and duration of the intervention (>12 weeks), as well as with NA supplementation when compared to NE. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these findings suggest that NAD+ precursor supplementation might have a beneficial effect on cardiovascular risk factors such as BP, CRP concentration and CIMT.

Probiotics are beneficial for liver cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized control trials.

Introduction: Gut dysbiosis may play a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of cirrhosis and the severity of complications. Numerous studies have investigated the probiotics as treatments for cirrhosis. However, there is still a lack of definitive evidence confirming the beneficial effects of probiotics on cirrhosis. Methods: Databases including PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched for randomized controlled trials that compared the effects of probiotic intervention and control treatments, including placebo, no treatment, and active control, on cirrhosis, published from inception to February 2024. Outcomes included hepatic encephalopathy (HE) reversal, safety and tolerability of probiotics, liver function, quality of life, and other cirrhotic-related outcomes. A meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize evidence. Results: Thirty studies were included. The quantitative synthesis results showed that compared with the control group, probiotics significantly reverse minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) (risk ratio [RR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03 to 2.32) and improve HE (RR 1.94, 95% CI 1.24 to 3.06). Additionally, probiotics demonstrated higher safety and tolerability by causing a lower incidence of serious adverse events (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.87). Probiotics could potentially improve liver function by reducing the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores (standardized mean difference [SMD] -0.57, 95% CI -0.85 to -0.30), and displayed favorable changes in quality of life (SMD 0.51, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.75) and gut flora (SMD 1.67, 95% CI 1.28 to 2.06). Conclusion: This systematic review and meta-analysis offers compelling evidence that probiotics are beneficial for cirrhosis by demonstrating reversal of HE, potential for liver function improvements, enhancements in quality of life, and regulation of gut dysbiosis. Furthermore, the apparent safety profile suggests that probiotics are a promising intervention for treating cirrhosis. Clinical trial registration number: CRD42023478380.

The lead time and geographical variations of Baidu Search Index in the early warning of COVID-19.

Internet search data was a useful tool in the pre-warning of COVID-19. However, the lead time and indicators may change over time and space with the new variants appear and massive nucleic acid testing. Since Omicron appeared in late 2021, we collected the daily number of cases and Baidu Search Index (BSI) of seven search terms from 1 January to 30 April, 2022 in 12 provinces/prefectures to explore the variation in China. Two search peaks of "COVID-19 epidemic", "Novel Coronavirus" and "COVID-19" can be observed. One in January, which showed 3 days lead time in Henan and Tianjin. Another on early March, which occurred 0-28 days ahead of the local epidemic but the lead time had spatial variation. It was 4 weeks in Shanghai, 2 weeks in Henan and 5-8 days in Jilin Province, Jilin and Changchun Prefecture. But it was only 1-3 days in Tianjin, Quanzhou Prefecture, Fujian Province and 0 day in Shenzhen, Shandong Province, Qingdao and Yanbian Prefecture. The BSI was high correlated (rs:0.70-0.93) to the number of cases with consistent epidemiological change trend. The lead time of BSI had spatial and temporal variation and was close related to the strength of nucleic acid testing. The case detection ability should be strengthened when perceiving BSI increase.