Climatic changes can drive the loss of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species.

The high rates of future climatic changes, compared with the rates reported for past changes, may hamper species adaptation to new climates or the tracking of suitable conditions, resulting in significant loss of genetic diversity. Trees are dominant species in many biomes and because they are long-lived, they may not be able to cope with ongoing climatic changes. Here, we coupled ecological niche modelling (ENM) and genetic simulations to forecast the effects of climatic changes on the genetic diversity and the structure of genetic clusters. Genetic simulations were conditioned to climatic variables and restricted to plant dispersal and establishment. We used a Neotropical savanna tree as species model that shows a preference for hot and drier climates, but with low temperature seasonality. The ENM predicts a decreasing range size along the more severe future climatic scenario. Additionally, genetic diversity and allelic richness also decrease with range retraction and climatic genetic clusters are lost for both future scenarios, which will lead genetic variability to homogenize throughout the landscape. Besides, climatic genetic clusters will spatially reconfigure on the landscape following displacements of climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that climate change effects will challenge population adaptation to new environmental conditions because of the displacement of genetic ancestry clusters from their optimal conditions.

Demographic stability and high historical connectivity explain the diversity of a savanna tree species in the Quaternary.

Background and Aims: Cyclic glaciations were frequent throughout the Quaternary and this affected species distribution and population differentiation worldwide. The present study reconstructed the demographic history and dispersal routes of Eugenia dysenterica lineages and investigated the effects of Quaternary climate change on its spatial pattern of genetic diversity. Methods: A total of 333 individuals were sampled from 23 populations and analysed by sequencing four regions of the chloroplast DNA and the internal transcribed spacer of the nuclear DNA. The analyses were performed using a multi-model inference approach based on ecological niche modelling and statistical phylogeography. Key Results: Coalescent simulation showed that population stability through time is the most likely scenario. The palaeodistribution dynamics predicted by the ecological niche models revealed that the species was potentially distributed across a large area, extending over Central-Western Brazil through the last glaciation. The lineages of E. dysenterica dispersed from Central Brazil towards populations at the northern, western and south-eastern regions. A historical refugium through time may have favoured lineage dispersal and the maintenance of genetic diversity. Conclusions: The results suggest that the central region of the Cerrado biome is probably the centre of distribution of E. dysenterica and that the spatial pattern of its genetic diversity may be the outcome of population stability throughout the Quaternary. The lower genetic diversity in populations in the south-eastern Cerrado biome is probably due to local climatic instability during the Quaternary.

Pollen dispersal and breeding structure in a hawkmoth-pollinated Pampa grasslands species Petunia axillaris (Solanaceae).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The evolution of selfing is one of the most common transitions in flowering plants, and this change in mating pattern has important systematic and ecological consequences because it often initiates reproductive isolation and speciation. Petunia axillaris (Solanaceae) includes three allopatric subspecies widely distributed in temperate South America that present different degrees of self-compatibity and incompatibility. One of these subspecies is co-distributed with P. exserta in a restricted area and presents a complex, not well-understood mating system. Artificial crossing experiments suggest a complex system of mating in this sympatric area. The main aims of this study were to estimate the pollen dispersal distance and to evaluate the breeding structure of P. axillaris subsp. axillaris, a hawkmoth-pollinated taxon from this sympatric zone. METHODS: Pollen dispersal distance was compared with nearest-neighbours distance, and the differentiation in the pollen pool among mother plants was estimated. In addition, the correlation between genetic differentiation and spatial distance among plants was tested. All adult individuals (252) within a space of 2800 m(2) and 15 open-pollinated progeny (285 seedlings) were analysed. Genetic analyses were based on 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. KEY RESULTS: A high proportion of self-pollination was found, indicating a mixed-mating system. The maximum pollen dispersal distance was 1013 m, but most pollination events (96 %) occurred at a distance of 0 m, predominantly in an inbreeding system. Both parents among sampled individuals could be identifed in 60-85 % of the progeny. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that most pollen dispersal in the hawkmoth-pollinated P. axillaris subsp. axillaris occurs within populations and there is a high proportion of inbreeding. This mating system appears to favour species integrity in a secondary contact zone with the congener species P. exserta.

Mantel test in population genetics.

The comparison of genetic divergence or genetic distances, estimated by pairwise FST and related statistics, with geographical distances by Mantel test is one of the most popular approaches to evaluate spatial processes driving population structure. There have been, however, recent criticisms and discussions on the statistical performance of the Mantel test. Simultaneously, alternative frameworks for data analyses are being proposed. Here, we review the Mantel test and its variations, including Mantel correlograms and partial correlations and regressions. For illustrative purposes, we studied spatial genetic divergence among 25 populations of Dipteryx alata ("Baru"), a tree species endemic to the Cerrado, the Brazilian savannas, based on 8 microsatellite loci. We also applied alternative methods to analyze spatial patterns in this dataset, especially a multivariate generalization of Spatial Eigenfunction Analysis based on redundancy analysis. The different approaches resulted in similar estimates of the magnitude of spatial structure in the genetic data. Furthermore, the results were expected based on previous knowledge of the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying genetic variation in this species. Our review shows that a careful application and interpretation of Mantel tests, especially Mantel correlograms, can overcome some potential statistical problems and provide a simple and useful tool for multivariate analysis of spatial patterns of genetic divergence.

Megafauna Seed Dispersal in the Neotropics: A Meta-Analysis Shows No Genetic Signal of Loss of Long-Distance Seed Dispersal.

Restricted gene flow may lead to the loss of genetic diversity and higher genetic differentiation among populations, but the genetic consequences of megafauna extinction for plant populations still remain to be assessed. We performed a phylogenetic-independent meta-analysis across 102 Neotropical plants to test the hypothesis that plant species with megafaunal seed dispersal syndrome have a lower genetic diversity and a higher genetic differentiation than those without it. We classified as megafauna-dependent plant species those that potentially relied only on megafauna to seed dispersal, and as megafauna-independent those that relied on megafauna and other seed dispersers. Our data comprised 98 studies using microsatellite markers. We found no statistical difference in genetic diversity and differentiation between plants with megafauna and non-megafauna seed dispersal syndrome, although the statistical power to detect differences in genetic differentiation was low. Moreover, we found no statistical difference between megafauna-dependent and megafauna-independent plant species. We then used generalized linear mixed models and phylogenetic generalized least square models to investigate the effects of megafaunal seed dispersal syndromes and reproductive traits on variation in genetic diversity and genetic differentiation. We found no effect of megafaunal syndrome, rather, reproductive traits, such as pollination mode, mating, and breeding systems, showed significant effects. Our findings show that the genetic studies of Neotropical plants performed so far show no difference in genetic diversity and differentiation in plants with megafaunal compared to those with non-megafaunal seed dispersal syndromes. Our results also provide evidence pointing out that plant species with megafaunal seed dispersal syndromes may have used different strategies to counterbalance the extinction of their mutualistic megafauna dispersers, such as the dispersal by extant mammals that may promote long-distance seed dispersal. Our results also reinforce the importance of pollination to long-distance gene flow in Neotropical plants.