Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage - World Health Organization African Region, 2021-2023.

With the availability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, vaccination became an effective tool to reduce COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality. Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) set an ambitious target to vaccinate 70% of the global population by mid-2022. However, in July 2022, WHO recommended that all countries, including those in the African Region, prioritize COVID-19 vaccination of high-risk groups, including older adults and health care workers, to have the greatest impact on morbidity and mortality. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 860 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine had been delivered to countries in the African Region, and 646 million doses had been administered. Cumulatively, 38% of the African Region's population had received ≥1 dose, 32% had completed a primary series, and 21% had received ≥1 booster dose. Cumulative total population coverage with ≥1 dose ranged by country from 0.3% to 89%. Coverage with the primary series among older age groups was 52% (range among countries = 15%-96%); primary series coverage among health care workers was 48% (range = 13%-99%). Although the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern was declared over in May 2023, current WHO recommendations reinforce the need to vaccinate priority populations at highest risk for severe COVID-19 disease and death and build more sustainable programs by integrating COVID-19 vaccination into primary health care, strengthening immunization across the life course, and improving pandemic preparedness.

COVID-19 Mortality and Progress Toward Vaccinating Older Adults - World Health Organization, Worldwide, 2020-2022.

After the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019, transmission expanded globally, and on January 30, 2020, COVID-19 was declared a public health emergency of international concern.* Analysis of the early Wuhan, China outbreak (1), subsequently confirmed by multiple other studies (2,3), found that 80% of deaths occurred among persons aged ≥60 years. In anticipation of the time needed for the global vaccine supply to meet all needs, the World Health Organization (WHO) published the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) Values Framework and a roadmap for prioritizing use of COVID-19 vaccines in late 2020 (4,5), followed by a strategy brief to outline urgent actions in October 2021.† WHO described the general principles, objectives, and priorities needed to support country planning of vaccine rollout to minimize severe disease and death. A July 2022 update to the strategy brief§ prioritized vaccination of populations at increased risk, including older adults,¶ with the goal of 100% coverage with a complete COVID-19 vaccination series** for at-risk populations. Using available public data on COVID-19 mortality (reported deaths and model estimates) for 2020 and 2021 and the most recent reported COVID-19 vaccination coverage data from WHO, investigators performed descriptive analyses to examine age-specific mortality and global vaccination rollout among older adults (as defined by each country), stratified by country World Bank income status. Data quality and COVID-19 death reporting frequency varied by data source; however, persons aged ≥60 years accounted for >80% of the overall COVID-19 mortality across all income groups, with upper- and lower-middle-income countries accounting for 80% of the overall estimated excess mortality. Effective COVID-19 vaccines were authorized for use in December 2020, with global supply scaled up sufficiently to meet country needs by late 2021 (6). COVID-19 vaccines are safe and highly effective in reducing severe COVID-19, hospitalizations, and mortality (7,8); nevertheless, country-reported median completed primary series coverage among adults aged ≥60 years only reached 76% by the end of 2022, substantially below the WHO goal, especially in middle- and low-income countries. Increased efforts are needed to increase primary series and booster dose coverage among all older adults as recommended by WHO and national health authorities.

Parental views and the key role of nurses for high vaccine acceptance in Sweden - a focus group study.

BACKGROUND: In Sweden, vaccine uptake is exceptionally high due to an efficient child immunization program. More than 97% of Swedish children were vaccinated at child health care centers (CHCs) according to the schedule at 2 years of age in 2021. From the age of 6 years, vaccinations are given within the school health care. Maintaining high vaccination coverage over time is one of the central motives to explore and understand drivers for vaccine acceptance. The current study aimed to assess parental vaccine acceptance concerning the national immunization program and explore factors contributing to the high vaccine acceptance in Sweden. METHODS: Parents of children aged 1-2 years and 8-12 years were recruited through purposive sampling and asked to participate in focus groups held in three cities in Sweden, in February and March 2019. In total, 47 parents participated in two focus groups per city, one session for parents of younger (1-2 years) and older (8-12 years) children respectively. The focus group discussions were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Parents of children aged 1-2 years expressed the themes; strong compliance to and protection of the value of vaccinations; parents feel safe with an attentive relationship with their nurse; the spectrum of communication needs is essential to meet. For parents to children aged 8-12 years, the themes expressed were; vaccinate to do good for the individual and society; a foundation of trust is built at CHCs for decisions later on; decisions for vaccination become more complex as children get older; communication changes as children get older and need to be explicit and tailored to the situation. CONCLUSION: Both individual and societal perspectives were shown to influence the vaccination decision for childhood immunizations, as manifested in parental reflections and experiences. As nurses have a key role, it is important to provide them with continued support and tools to facilitate their support for parents in making informed decisions. Continuous work for supporting driving factors for vaccination over time is needed to maintain high vaccine acceptance in Sweden.

Estimated number of reported vaccine-preventable disease cases averted following the introduction of routine vaccination programs in Sweden, 1910-2019.

BACKGROUND: Routine childhood vaccination programs have had enormous positive public health impacts worldwide. However, in some areas, these benefits may be impeded by vaccine hesitancy and undervaccination. We estimated the number of reported cases of measles, pertussis, mumps and poliomyelitis averted in Sweden after the introduction of routine childhood vaccination programs. METHODS: We used annual national data on population size and the number of reported cases of measles (1911-2019), pertussis (1911-2019), mumps (1914-2019) and poliomyelitis (1910-2019) for Sweden. For each disease, we calculated the median and 95% confidence interval of the annual pre-vaccination incidence to estimate the number of counterfactual cases; that is, the estimated number of cases that would have been observed in the post-vaccination period had no vaccine been introduced (median incidence × average annual population). For the post-vaccination periods, we calculated reported cases averted and assumed all decreases were due to vaccines. RESULTS: In total, for all four diseases combined, over 2.1 million cases were reported over the respective surveillance periods. Since the introduction of vaccinations, we estimate that over 1.5 million reported cases of these four diseases combined have been averted: measles (633 091), pertussis (608 670), mumps (262 951) and poliomyelitis (58 240). However, due to underreporting, especially during pre-vaccination years, these are likely underestimates. CONCLUSIONS: Since the introduction of these routine childhood vaccination programs in Sweden, a substantial number of reported cases of vaccine-preventable diseases have been averted. Vigilance against both failure to vaccinate and undervaccination is necessary to prevent future increases of these vaccine-preventable diseases.

Building global capacity for COVID-19 vaccination through interactive virtual learning.

BACKGROUND: To support the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine, the World Health Organization and its partners developed an interactive virtual learning initiative through which vaccination stakeholders could receive the latest guidance, ask questions, and share their experiences. This initiative, implemented between 9 February 2021 and 15 June 2021, included virtual engagement between technical experts and participants during a 15-session interactive webinar series as well as web and text-messaging discussions in English and French. METHODS: This article uses a mixed-methods approach to analyze survey data collected following each webinar and a post-series survey conducted after the series had concluded. Participant data were tracked for each session, and feedback surveys were conducted after each session to gauge experience quality and content usability. Chi-square tests were used to compare results across professions (health workers, public health practitioners, and others). RESULTS: The COVID-19 Vaccination: Building Global Capacity webinar series reached participants in 179 countries or 93% of the WHO Member States; 75% of participants were from low- and middle-income countries. More than 60% of participants reported using the resources provided during the sessions, and 47% reported sharing these resources with colleagues. More than 79% of participants stated that this initiative significantly improved their confidence in preparing for and rolling out COVID-19 vaccinations; an additional 20% stated that the initiative "somewhat" improved their confidence. In the post-series survey, 70% of participants reported that they will "definitely use" the knowledge derived from this learning series in their work; an additional 20% will "probably use" and 9% would "possibly use" this knowledge in their work. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 Vaccination: Building Global Capacity learning initiative used a digital model of dynamic, interactive learning at scale. The initiative enhanced WHO's ability to disseminate knowledge, provide normative guidance, and share best practices to COVID-19 vaccination stakeholders in real time. This approach allowed WHO to hear the information needs of stakeholders and respond by developing guidance, tools, and training to support COVID-19 vaccine introduction. WHO and its partners can learn from this capacity-building experience and apply best practices for digital interactive learning to other health programs moving forward.

The World of Immunization: Achievements, Challenges, and Strategic Vision for the Next Decade.

Immunization is among the most cost-effective public health interventions available and is estimated to have averted at least 37 million deaths between 2000 and 2019. Since the establishment of the Expanded Programme on Immunization in 1974, global vaccination coverage increased and the coverage gap between rich and poor countries decreased. Creation of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, in 2000 allowed the poorest countries in the world to benefit from new, life-saving vaccines and expand the breadth of protection against an increasing number of vaccine-preventable diseases. Despite this progress, inequities in access to and uptake of vaccines persist. Opportunities to realize the full potential of vaccines are within reach but require focused, tailored and committed action by Governments and immunization stakeholders. The Immunization Agenda 2030 provides a framework for action during the next decade to attain a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age fully benefits from vaccines for good health and well-being.

Immunisation of healthcare workers in the Nordic countries: Variation in recommendations and practices and a lack of assessment.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at increased risk of both exposure and transmission of infectious disease. Two European Union (EU) directives state that health services are responsible for assessing their employees' potential exposure to infectious diseases and offering immunisation free of charge. We assessed current policy for immunisation of HCWs and the availability of vaccine coverage data in the Nordic countries by surveying national vaccination experts in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, as well as Swedish county medical officers (CMOs). All national experts and 17 of 21 Swedish CMOs responded. All EU countries had transposed the European directives into national law, while Norway and Iceland had similar national legislation. Recommendations or guidelines were issued in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and 15 of 17 responding Swedish counties. The range of diseases covered differed by countries and Swedish counties. HCW vaccine coverage data were not systematically collected; incomplete estimates were only available for Finland and two Swedish counties. In conclusion, recommendations or guidelines exist in the Nordic countries, but their impact cannot be assessed, as vaccine uptake among HCWs is not currently measured. Systematic collection of data is a necessary step towards improving HCW immunisation policy and practice in the Nordic countries.

The impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on community-acquired pneumonia hospitalizations in children with comorbidity.

The burden of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in high-income countries is still significant. The introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) has reduced the overall need for hospitalization for CAP. However, it is not clear whether children with underlying disease also have benefitted from the PCV immunization programme. Children 0 to <5 years of age hospitalized with CAP and discharged with an ICD-10 code of J13-J18.9 between November 1, 2005, and April 30, 2007 (pre-vaccination period), and November 1, 2010, and April 30, 2012 (post-vaccination period), were eligible for this study. Data on hospitalization and discharge diagnoses were retrieved from the Hospital Registry. In addition, chart review was performed in 50% of the patients. Our result confirmed a decrease in hospitalization rate for CAP in the PCV13 period. Chart review revealed that half of the patients had underlying comorbidity and these children had more severe symptoms and required longer hospital stay. Intensive care was provided to less than 10% of the children and mostly for children with an underlying neurological disease. CONCLUSIONS: We show that all children have benefitted from the reduction of CAP hospitalization after introduction of PCV. Our finding emphasizes the importance of children with chronic diseases receiving adequate vaccinations that may protect from lower respiratory diseases. What is known? • Community-acquired pneumonia is a leading infectious cause of hospitalizations and death among children <5 years of age globally • Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine reduces the hospitalizations of all-cause pneumonia What is new? • We show that also children with underlying comorbidities have benefitted from PCV immunization with a reduction of CAP hospitalization • We show that approximately half of all children hospitalized with CAP also have underlying comorbidities.

Receiving early information and trusting Swedish child health centre nurses increased parents' willingness to vaccinate against rotavirus infections.

AIM: Rotavirus vaccines are effective against severe infections, but have a modest impact on mortality in high-income countries. Parental knowledge and attitudes towards vaccines are crucial for high vaccination coverage. This study aimed to identify why parents refused to let their infant have the vaccination or were unsure. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was based on 1,063 questionnaires completed by the parents of newborn children in 2014. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the main predictors. RESULTS: Most (81%) parents intended to vaccinate their child against the rotavirus, while 19% were unwilling or uncertain. Parents with less education and children up to five weeks of age were more likely to be unwilling or uncertain about vaccinating their child. Factors associated with a refusal or uncertainty about vaccinating were not having enough information about the vaccine, no intention of accepting other vaccines, paying little heed to the child health nurses' recommendations, thinking that the rotavirus was not a serious illness and not believing that the vaccine provided protection against serious forms of gastroenteritis. CONCLUSION: Early information, extra information for parents with less education and close positive relationships between parents and child health nurses were important factors in high rotavirus vaccination rates.

Effects of PCV7 and PCV13 on invasive pneumococcal disease and carriage in Stockholm, Sweden.

The effects of pneumococcal conjugated vaccines (PCVs) need to be investigated. In Stockholm County, Sweden, PCV7 was introduced in the childhood immunisation programme in 2007 and changed to PCV13 in 2010.Over 90% of all invasive isolates during 2005-2014 (n=2336) and carriage isolates, 260 before and 647 after vaccine introduction, were characterised by serotyping, molecular typing and antibiotic susceptibility, and serotype diversity was calculated. Clinical information was collected for children and adults with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD).The IPD incidence decreased post-PCV7, but not post-PCV13, in vaccinated children. Beneficial herd effects were seen in older children and adults, but not in the elderly. The herd protection was more pronounced post-PCV7 than post-PCV13. PCV7 serotypes decreased. IPD caused by PCV13 serotypes 3 and 19A increased post-PCV7. Post-PCV13, serotypes 6A and 19A, but not serotype 3, decreased. The serotype distribution changed in carriage and IPD to nonvaccine types, also in nonvaccinated populations. Expansion of non-PCV13 serotypes was largest following PCV13 introduction. Serotype diversity increased and nonvaccine clones emerged, such as CC433 (serotype 22F) in IPD and CC62 (serotype 11A) in carriage. In young children, meningitis, septicaemia and severe rhinosinusitis, but not bacteraemic pneumonia, decreased.Pneumococcal vaccination leads to expansion of new or minor serotypes/clones, also in nonvaccinated populations.

Outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis capsular group W among scouts returning from the World Scout Jamboree, Japan, 2015.

The 23rd World Scout Jamboree was held in Japan from 28 July to 8 August 2015 and was attended by over 33,000 scouts from 162 countries. An outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease capsular group W was investigated among participants, with four confirmed cases identified in Scotland, who were all associated with one particular scout unit, and two confirmed cases in Sweden; molecular testing showed the same strain to be responsible for illness in both countries. The report describes the public health action taken to prevent further cases and the different decisions reached with respect to how wide to extend the offer of chemoprophylaxis in the two countries; in Scotland, chemoprophylaxis was offered to the unit of 40 participants to which the four cases belonged and to other close contacts of cases, while in Sweden chemoprophylaxis was offered to all those returning from the Jamboree. The report also describes the international collaboration and communication required to investigate and manage such multinational outbreaks in a timely manner.

Respiratory viruses associated with community-acquired pneumonia in children: matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of death in children worldwide and a substantial proportion of childhood CAP is caused by viruses. A better understanding of the role of virus infections in this condition is needed to improve clinical management and preventive measures. The aim of the study was therefore to assess the association between specific respiratory viruses and childhood CAP. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted during 3 years in Stockholm, Sweden. Cases were children aged ≤5 years with radiological CAP. Healthy controls were consecutively enrolled at child health units during routine visits and matched to cases on age and calendar time. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were obtained and analysed by real-time PCR for 15 viruses. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used to account for coinfections with other viruses and baseline characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 121 cases, of which 93 cases met the WHO criteria for radiological pneumonia, and 240 controls were included in the study. Viruses were detected in 81% of the cases (n=98) and 56% of the controls (n=134). Influenza virus, metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus were detected in 60% of cases and were significantly associated with CAP with ORs >10. There was no association with parainfluenza virus, human enterovirus or rhinovirus and coronavirus and bocavirus were negatively associated with CAP. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates viral CAP is an underestimated disease and points out hMPV as a new important target for the prevention of childhood CAP.

Key Learnings from the Development and Early Use of Global Guidance on the Integration of COVID-19 Vaccination into Broader Health Systems.

More than 13.5 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses were delivered between 2021 and 2023 through a mix of delivery platforms, with mass vaccination campaigns being the main approach. In 2022, with the continued circulation of SARS-CoV2 and the need for periodic boosters being most likely, countries were required to plan for more sustainable approaches to provide COVID-19 vaccinations. In this context of uncertainty, a global tool for integrating COVID-19 vaccines into immunization programs and as part of broader health systems was published jointly by the WHO and UNICEF to respond to country needs. This paper summarizes the approach to, and lessons learned during, the development of a global guidance document and describes some examples of its early use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The guidance leveraged existing health system frameworks, proposed four steps for planning and implementing the COVID-19 vaccination integration journey, and identified investment areas. The development process maximized robust global stakeholder and country engagement, and the timeframe was aligned with donor funding windows to support countries with the integration of COVID-19 vaccination. The rapid dissemination of the guidance document allowed countries to ascertain their readiness for integrating COVID-19 vaccination and inform the development of national plans and funding applications. While progress has been made in specific areas (e.g., optimizing cold chain and logistics leveraging COVID-19 vaccination), in the context of decreasing demand for COVID-19 vaccines, reaching adult COVID-19 vaccine high-priority-use groups and engaging and coordinating with other health programs (beyond immunization) remain challenges, particularly in LMICs. We share the learning that despite the uncertainties of a pandemic, guidance documents can be developed and used within a short timeframe. Working in partnership with stakeholders within and beyond immunization towards a common objective is powerful and can allow progress to be made in terms of integrating health services and better preparing for future pandemics.

A Practical Guide to Full Value of Vaccine Assessments.

Articulating the wide range of health, social and economic benefits that vaccines offer may help to overcome obstacles in the vaccine development pipeline. A framework to guide the assessment and communication of the value of a vaccine-the Full Value of Vaccine Assessment (FVVA)-has been developed by the WHO. The FVVA framework offers a holistic assessment of the value of vaccines, providing a synthesis of evidence to inform the public health need of a vaccine, describing the supply and demand aspects, its market and its impact from a health, financial and economic perspective. This paper provides a practical guide to how FVVAs are developed and used to support investment in vaccines, ultimately leading to sustained implementation in countries. The FVVA includes a range of elements that can be broadly categorised as synthesis, vaccine development narrative and defining vaccine impact and value. Depending on the features of the disease/vaccine in question, different elements may be emphasised; however, a standardised set of elements is recommended for each FVVA. The FVVA should be developed by an expert group who represent a range of stakeholders, perspectives and geographies and ensure a fair, coherent and evidence-based assessment of vaccine value.

Digital health funding for COVID-19 vaccine deployment across four major donor agencies.

The international response to the COVID-19 pandemic provided opportunities for countries to use digital technologies for vaccine deployment and associated activities, but misaligned digital investments could weaken or fragment national systems. In this review of 311 funding applications from 120 country governments to four donor agencies (UNICEF; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; and the World Bank) up to May 1, 2022, we found that 272 (87%) of the applications included at least one digital aspect and that substantial funding has been dedicated towards digital aspects from donors. The majority of digital aspects concerned immunisation information systems, vaccine acceptance and uptake, and COVID-19 surveillance. As the global community sets its sights on a COVID-19-free world, continued coordinated investments in digital health and health information systems for pandemic preparedness and response will be key to strengthening the resilience of health systems.

Exploring nurses' experiences of a tailored intervention to increase MMR vaccine acceptance in a Somali community in Stockholm, Sweden: a qualitative interview study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore nurses' experiences of a tailored intervention that supported them with knowledge and tools to use during encounters and dialogue with parents with low vaccine acceptance. DESIGN: A qualitative study with in-depth interviews conducted in 2017. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. SETTING: This study was part of a multicomponent intervention targeting Somali parents and the nurses at child health centres in the Rinkeby and Tensta neighbourhoods of Stockholm. An area with documented low measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage. Previous research has revealed that Somali parents in the community delayed MMR vaccination due to fear of autism despite lack of scientific evidence. The interventions were implemented in 2015-2017. PARTICIPANTS: Eleven nurses employed at the child health centres involved in the intervention participated in interviews. The tailored intervention targeting nurses included a series of seminars, a narrative film and an information card with key messages for distribution to parents. RESULTS: The qualitative analysis revealed an overarching theme: perception of improved communication with parents. Two underlying themes were identified: (1) feeling more confident to address parents' MMR vaccine concerns and (2) diverse tools as useful support to dispel myth and reduce language barriers. CONCLUSION: From the nurses' perspective, the tailored intervention was useful to improve communication with parents having vaccine concerns. Nurses have a crucial role in vaccine uptake and acceptance. Interventions aiming to strengthen their communication with parents are therefore essential, especially in areas with lower vaccine acceptance.

Prices of paediatric vaccines in European vaccination programmes.

Objective: To compare the vaccine prices per vaccinated child under 18 and vaccine funding and procurement systems in the national vaccination programmes (NVPs) in Europe. Methods: The on-line survey targeted to NVP managers collected data referred to the information available on 31 December 2016. The prices of vaccines were categorised into three groups. The price per child 1) fully vaccinated comprised all vaccines and doses offered in the NVP; 2) vaccinated with standard vaccines comprised the vaccines included in the NVP in all countries; 3) vaccinated with recent vaccines comprised the pneumococcal conjugate, human papillomavirus and rotavirus vaccines. Results: In the 23 out of 32 countries that answered the survey, 17 funded the vaccines by taxes and six by social insurance. 18 countries procured the vaccines through public tenders or negotiations. Five countries purchased the vaccines by healthcare providers and reimbursed from the health insurance system.In the countries with vaccine procurement through public tenders the price per child vaccinated with standard vaccines ranged from €59 to €117 when using pentavalent and from €98 to €220 when using hexavalent vaccines. The mean price per child vaccinated with recent vaccines was €130 for the countries that offered pneumococcal conjugate and human papillomavirus vaccines and €142 for the countries that in addition included rotavirus vaccine.In the countries that purchased the vaccines by healthcare providers and reimbursed from the health insurance system the price per child vaccinated with standard vaccines ranged from €136 to €427. Conclusions: The vaccine prices differ notably in Europe. Prices were lower in countries where vaccines in the NVP were tax-funded and nationally or regionally procured. Improved procurement systems could lead to substantial savings or possibilities to introduce more vaccines into the NVP.

Modeling the impact of vaccination for the immunization Agenda 2030: Deaths averted due to vaccination against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The Immunization Agenda 2030 (IA2030) Impact Goal 1.1. aims to reduce the number of future deaths averted through immunization in the next decade. To estimate the potential impact of the aspirational coverage targets for IA2030, we developed an analytical framework and estimated the number of deaths averted due to an ambitious vaccination coverage scenario from 2021 to 2030 in 194 countries. METHOD: A demographic model was used to determine annual age-specific mortality estimates associated with vaccine coverage rates. For ten pathogens (Hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever), we derived single measures of country-, age-, and pathogen-specific relative risk of deaths conditional upon coverage rates, leveraging the data from 18 modeling groups as part of the Vaccine Impact Model Consortium (VIMC) for 110 countries. We used a logistic regression model to extrapolate the relative risk estimates to countries that were not modeled by VIMC. For four pathogens (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and tuberculosis), we used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study and existing literature on vaccine efficacy. A future scenario defining years of vaccine introduction and scale-up needed to reach aspirational targets was developed as an input to estimate the long-term impact of vaccination taking place from 2021 to 2030. FINDINGS: Overall, an estimated 51.5 million (95 % CI: 44.0-63.2) deaths are expected to be averted due to vaccinations administered between the years 2021 and 2030. With immunization coverage projected to increase over 2021-2030 an average of 5.2 million per year (4.4-6.3) deaths will be averted annually, with 4.4 million (3.9-5.1) deaths be averted for the year 2021, gradually rising to 5.8 million (4.9-7.5) deaths averted in 2030. The largest proportion of deaths is attributed to Measles and Hepatitis B accounting for 18.8 million (17.8-20.0) and 14.0 million (11.5-16.9) of total deaths averted respectively. INTERPRETATION: The results from this global analysis demonstrate the substantial potential mortality reductions achievable if the IA2030 targets are met by 2030. Deaths caused by vaccine preventable diseases disproportionately affect LMICs in the African region.