Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century.

We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046-2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25-0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980-2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24-124% in area burned using regressions and 63-169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46-70% and black carbon by 20-27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84th percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest.

Longitudinal observation of an HIV prevention community planning group (CPG).

HIV prevention community planning groups were formed to increase stakeholder participation and develop evidence-based comprehensive HIV prevention plans. To date, it is not well understood what factors affect group behavior as the planning group prepares for data-informed decision making. In this observational case study, the authors videotaped 18 meetings of a community planning group (CPG) to observe how a group's behavior changes over time in response to modifications in its structure and function. Discussions on authority and conflict were common, particularly during presentations on prioritized populations and interventions. Changes in the frequency of data-informed discussions were not statistically significant. Observed group conflict may have been an unintended consequence of efforts to improve equity. The authors suggest that formal and informal mechanisms to manage conflict and agreed-on procedures for decision making should be incorporated into the technical assistance offered to CPGs. Future studies should address whether data-informed decisions increase once contentious issues are resolved.

Origins of tropospheric ozone interannual variation (IAV) over Réunion: A model investigation.

Observations from long-term ozonesonde measurements show robust variations and trends in the evolution of ozone in the middle and upper troposphere over Réunion Island (21.1°S, 55.5°E) in June-August. Here we examine possible causes of the observed ozone variation at Réunion Island using hindcast simulations by the stratosphere-troposphere Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model (GMI-CTM) for 1992-2014, driven by assimilated Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. Réunion Island is at the edge of the subtropical jet, a region of strong stratospheric-tropospheric exchange (STE). Our analysis implies that the large interannual variation (IAV) of upper tropospheric ozone over Réunion is driven by the large IAV of the stratospheric influence. The IAV of the large-scale, quasi-horizontal wind patterns also contributes to the IAV of ozone in the upper troposphere. Comparison to a simulation with constant emissions indicates that increasing emissions do not lead to the maximum trend in the middle and upper troposphere over Réunion during austral winter implied by the sonde data. The effects of increasing emission over southern Africa are limited to the lower troposphere near the surface in August - September.

Creating a bridge between data collection and program planning: a technical assistance model to maximize the use of HIV/AIDS surveillance and service utilization data for planning purposes.

Over time, improvements in HIV/AIDS surveillance and service utilization data have increased their usefulness for planning programs, targeting resources, and otherwise informing HIV/AIDS policy. However, community planning groups, service providers, and health department staff often have difficulty in interpreting and applying the wide array of data now available. We describe the development of the Bridging Model, a technical assistance model for overcoming barriers to the use of data for program planning. Through the use of an iterative feedback loop in the model, HIV/AIDS data products constantly are evolving to better inform the decision-making tasks of their multiple users. Implementation of this model has led to improved data quality and data products and to a greater willingness and ability among stakeholders to use the data for planning purposes.

Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-21st century.

We estimate area burned in southern California at mid-century (2046-2065) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. We develop both regressions and a parameterization to predict area burned in three ecoregions, and apply present-day (1981-2000) and future meteorology from the suite of general circulation models (GCMs) to these fire prediction tools. The regressions account for the impacts of both current and antecedent meteorological factors on wildfire activity and explain 40-46% of the variance in area burned during 1980-2009. The parameterization yields area burned as a function of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, and includes the impact of Santa Ana wind and other geographical factors on wildfires. It explains 38% of the variance in area burned over southern California as a whole, and 64% of the variance in southwestern California. The parameterization also captures the seasonality of wildfires in three ecoregions of southern California. Using the regressions, we find that area burned likely doubles in Southwestern California by midcentury, and increases by 35% in the Sierra Nevada and 10% in central western California. The parameterization suggests a likely increase of 40% in area burned in southwestern California and 50% in the Sierra Nevada by midcentury. It also predicts a longer fire season in southwestern California due to warmer and drier conditions on Santa Ana days in November. Our method provides robust estimates of area burned at midcentury, a key metric which can be used to calculate the fire-related effects on air quality, human health, and the associated costs.

Systems biology and modeling in neuroblastoma: practicalities and perspectives.

Neuroblastoma (NB) is a common pediatric malignancy characterized by clinical and biological heterogeneity. A host of prognostic markers are available, contributing to accurate risk stratification and appropriate treatment allocation. Unfortunately, outcome is still poor for many patients, indicating the need for a new approach with enhanced utilization of the available biological data. Systems biology is a holistic approach in which all components of a biological system carry equal importance. Systems biology uses mathematical modeling and simulation to investigate dynamic interactions between system components, as a means of explaining overall system behavior. Systems biology can benefit the biomedical sciences by providing a more complete understanding of human disease, enhancing the development of targeted therapeutics. Systems biology is largely contiguous with current approaches in NB, which already employ an integrative and pseudo-holistic approach to disease management. Systems modeling of NB offers an optimal method for continuing progression in this field, and conferring additional benefit to current risk stratification and management. Likewise, NB provides an opportunity for systems biology to prove its utility in the context of human disease, since the biology of NB is comprehensively characterized and, therefore, suited to modeling. The purpose of this review is to outline the benefits, challenges and fundamental workings of systems modeling in human disease, using a specific example of bottom-up modeling in NB. The intention is to demonstrate practical requirements to begin bridging the gap between biological research and applied mathematical approaches for the mutual gain of both fields, and with additional benefits for clinical management.

HIV prevention community planning: enhancing data-informed decision-making.

The primary purpose of this study was to test the impact of the first year of a 3-year intervention designed to enhance the use of behavioral data in the Massachusetts HIV Prevention Community Planning Group (MPPG). A one-group, pretest-posttest, nonequivalent independent variables, quasi-experimental design was used to assess changes before and after the first year of implementing strategies to enhance the use of behavioral data in decision-making. Over 90% of the CPG members completed surveys at baseline and at the end of the first year of the intervention. Consistent with the focus of the MPPG intervention in Year One, significant improvements were found from baseline to follow-up in member perceptions of decision-making structure and leadership, satisfaction with prevention planning processes, and intervention prioritization decisions. Findings provide preliminary evidence for the impact on member satisfaction of changes in CPG organizational structures and processes, including redistribution of power and broader constituent representation.

Bridging data and decision making: development of techniques for improving the HIV prevention community planning process.

Assessments of community planning in Massachusetts and Texas were used to develop tools for increasing the use of data by HIV prevention community planning groups (CPGs) and prevention providers while also increasing participation of CPG members. Barriers to data use included organizational problems in CPGs (e.g., lack of clear procedures, distrust of peers and leadership) and technical assistance needs for CPG members and researchers who provide data. The absence of data relevant to local epidemics was another barrier. Specific linkages are provided between the assessments of these needs and the development of a technical assistance tools (e.g., websites, templates for data presentation, experiential involvement in data use) and strategies for organizational change in CPGs, as well as efforts to better use available data and create or identify new sources of local data.

Improving the use of data for HIV prevention decision making: lessons learned.

HIV prevention community planning was developed to promote identification of local prevention priorities through a process that was evidence-based and provided community input. There are a variety of barriers to effective use of data in community planning which include characteristics of data (availability, timeliness, relevance to planning tasks), characteristics of planning group members and providers of data (e.g., skills in understanding and applying data), and social-organizational aspects of community-planning groups (CPGs). Lessons learned from this project illustrate how to create locally relevant sources of data, build data use skills of CPG members and data providers, and address social-organizational aspects of planning, while also better integrating community planning with implementation of prevention plans. Adaptation of tools and methods is discussed along with future considerations for research and planning practice.