Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review.

Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.

The unwelcome houseguest: secondary household transmission of norovirus.

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the USA. Although secondary household transmission of norovirus is frequently reported in outbreaks, little is known about specific risk factors for susceptibility and infectiousness in the household. Three norovirus outbreaks were investigated and data were collected on individuals exposed in the primary outbreak setting and their household members. Potential individual- and household-level risk factors for susceptibility and infectiousness were assessed using univariate and multivariate generalised linear mixed models. In the univariate models, the secondary attack rate (SAR) was significantly higher when living in a household with two or more primary cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 2·1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·37-3·29), more than one primary case with vomiting (IRR = 1·9; CI 1·11-3·37), and at least one primary case with diarrhoea (IRR = 3·0; CI 1·46-6·01). After controlling for other risk factors in the multivariate models, the SAR was significantly higher among those living in a household with two or more primary cases (adjusted IRR = 2·0; CI 1·17-3·47) and at least one primary case with diarrhoea (adjusted IRR = 2·8; CI 1·35-5·93). These findings underscore the importance of maintaining proper hygiene and isolating ill household members to prevent norovirus transmission in the household.

Association of host, agent and environment characteristics and the duration of incubation and symptomatic periods of norovirus gastroenteritis.

We analysed the reported duration of incubation and symptomatic periods of norovirus for a dataset of 1022 outbreaks, 64 of which reported data on the average incubation period and 87 on the average symptomatic period. We found the mean and median incubation periods for norovirus to be 32·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 30·9-34·6] hours and 33·5 (95% CI 32·0-34·0) hours, respectively. For the symptomatic period we found the mean and median to be 44·2 (95% CI 38·9-50·7) hours and 43·0 (95% CI 36·0-48·0) hours, respectively. We further investigated how these average periods were associated with several reported host, agent and environmental characteristics. We did not find any strong, biologically meaningful associations between the duration of incubation or symptomatic periods and the reported host, pathogen and environmental characteristics. Overall, we found that the distributions of incubation and symptomatic periods for norovirus infections are fairly constant and showed little differences with regard to the host, pathogen and environmental characteristics we analysed.

The development of Web-based surveillance provides new insights into the burden of norovirus outbreaks in hospitals in England.

A new surveillance system for outbreaks of norovirus in English hospitals, the hospital norovirus outbreak reporting system (HNORS), was launched in January 2009. On site investigators were enabled to enter data on outbreaks of norovirus directly onto a tailored system via an Internet-based front end. A standard dataset was designed to collect information describing the key epidemiological characteristics of each outbreak. In the period 1992-2008, 1817 suspected and confirmed outbreaks of norovirus in English hospitals were reported to national surveillance. After introduction of the new system there were 3980 reports of outbreaks of suspected and confirmed norovirus received in the years 2009-2011. Data from the new reporting system demonstrates that transmission of norovirus levies a heavy burden on English hospitals. On average, reported outbreaks are associated with 13,000 patients and 3400 staff becoming ill, 8900 days of ward closure and the loss of over 15,500 bed-days annually.

Predicting indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination programs on rotavirus mortality among children in 112 countries.

Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhea deaths in children, particularly in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs). Licensed rotavirus vaccines provide strong direct protection, but their indirect effect-the protection due to reduced transmission-is not fully understood. We aimed to quantify the population-level effects of rotavirus vaccination and identify factors that drive indirect protection. We used an SIR-like transmission model to estimate the indirect effects of vaccination on rotavirus deaths in 112 LMICs. We performed a regression analysis to identify predictors of indirect effect magnitude (linear regression) and the occurrence of negative indirect effects (logistic regression). Indirect effects contributed to vaccine impacts in all regions, with effect sizes 8-years post-vaccine introduction ranging from 16.9% in the WHO European region to 1.0% in the Western Pacific region. Indirect effect estimates were higher in countries with higher under-5 mortality, higher vaccine coverage, and lower birth rates. Of the 112 countries analyzed, 18 (16%) had at least 1 year with a predicted negative indirect effect. Negative indirect effects were more common in countries with higher birth rate, lower under-5 mortality and lower vaccine coverage. Rotavirus vaccination may have a larger impact than would be expected from direct effects alone, but the impact of these indirect effects is expected to vary by country.

The role of booster vaccination and ongoing viral evolution in seasonal circulation of SARS-CoV-2.

Periodic resurgences of COVID-19 in the coming years can be expected, while public health interventions may be able to reduce their intensity. We used a transmission model to assess how the use of booster doses and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) amid ongoing pathogen evolution might influence future transmission waves. We find that incidence is likely to increase as NPIs relax, with a second seasonally driven surge expected in autumn 2022. However, booster doses can greatly reduce the intensity of both waves and reduce cumulative deaths by 20% between 7 January 2022 and 7 January 2023. Reintroducing NPIs during the autumn as incidence begins to increase again could also be impactful. Combining boosters and NPIs results in a 30% decrease in cumulative deaths, with potential for greater impacts if variant-adapted boosters are used. Reintroducing these NPIs in autumn 2022 as transmission rates increase provides similar benefits to sustaining NPIs indefinitely (307 000 deaths with indefinite NPIs and boosters compared with 304 000 deaths with transient NPIs and boosters). If novel variants with increased transmissibility or immune escape emerge, deaths will be higher, but vaccination and NPIs are expected to remain effective tools to decrease both cumulative and peak health system burden, providing proportionally similar relative impacts.

Predicting the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination in 112 countries from 2006 to 2034: A transmission modeling analysis.

Rotavirus vaccination has been shown to reduce rotavirus burden in many countries, but the long-term magnitude of vaccine impacts is unclear, particularly in low-income countries. We use a transmission model to estimate the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2006 to 2034 for 112 low- and middle-income countries. We also explore the predicted effectiveness of a one- vs two- dose series and the relative contribution of direct vs indirect effects to overall impacts. To validate the model, we compare predicted percent reductions in severe rotavirus cases with the percent reduction in rotavirus positivity among gastroenteritis hospital admissions for 10 countries with pre- and post-vaccine introduction data. We estimate that vaccination would reduce deaths from rotavirus by 49.1 % (95 % UI: 46.6-54.3 %) by 2034 under realistic coverage scenarios, compared to a scenario without vaccination. Most of this benefit is due to direct benefit to vaccinated individuals (explaining 69-97 % of the overall impact), but indirect protection also appears to enhance impacts. We find that a one-dose schedule would only be about 57 % as effective as a two-dose schedule 12 years after vaccine introduction. Our model closely reproduced observed reductions in rotavirus positivity in the first few years after vaccine introduction in select countries. Rotavirus vaccination is likely to have a substantial impact on rotavirus gastroenteritis and its mortality burden. To sustain this benefit, the complete series of doses is needed.

Risk factors for symptomatic and asymptomatic norovirus infection in the community.

The objective of this study was to investigate risk factors for norovirus-associated infectious intestinal disease (IID) and asymptomatic norovirus infection. Individuals with IID and healthy controls were recruited in a community-based study in England (1993-1996). This is the first risk-factor study to use viral load measurements, generated by real-time RT-PCR, to identify cases of norovirus-associated IID and asymptomatic infections. Using multivariable logistic regression the main risk factor identified for norovirus-associated IID was contact with a person with IID symptoms. Infectious contacts accounted for 54% of norovirus cases in young children and 39% of norovirus cases in older children and adults. For young children, contacts outside the household presented the highest risk; for older children and adults, the highest risk was associated with child contacts inside the household. Foreign travel and consumption of shellfish increased the risk of norovirus-associated IID. Lifestyle and dietary factors were associated with a decreased risk of both norovirus-associated IID and asymptomatic infection. No risk factors were identified for asymptomatic norovirus infection.

Temperature-dependent transmission of rotavirus in Great Britain and The Netherlands.

In Europe, rotavirus gastroenteritis peaks in late winter or early spring suggesting a role for weather factors in transmission of the virus. In this study, multivariate regression models adapted for time-series data were used to investigate effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on reported rotavirus infections and the infection-rate parameter, a derived measure of infection transmission that takes into account population immunity, in England, Wales, Scotland and The Netherlands. Delayed effects of weather were investigated by introducing lagged weather terms into the model. Meta-regression was used to pool together country-specific estimates. There was a 13 per cent (95% confidence interval (CI), 11-15%) decrease in reported infections per 1 degrees C increase in temperature above a threshold of 5 degrees C and a 4 per cent (95% CI, 3-5%) decrease in the infection-rate parameter per 1 degrees C increase in temperature across the whole temperature range. The effect of temperature was immediate for the infection-rate parameter but delayed by up to four weeks for reported infections. There was no overall effect of humidity or rainfall. There is a direct and simple relationship between cold weather and rotavirus transmission in Great Britain and The Netherlands. The more complex and delayed temperature effect on disease incidence is likely to be mediated through the effects of weather on transmission.

Causes and consequences of psychological distress among orphans in eastern Zimbabwe.

Substantial resources are invested in psychological support for children orphaned or otherwise made vulnerable in the context of HIV/AIDS (OVC). However, there is still only limited scientific evidence for greater psychological distress amongst orphans and even less evidence for the effectiveness of current support strategies. Furthermore, programmes that address established mechanisms through which orphanhood can lead to greater psychological distress should be more effective. We use quantitative and qualitative data from Eastern Zimbabwe to measure the effects of orphanhood on psychological distress and to test mechanisms for greater distress amongst orphans suggested in a recently published theoretical framework. Orphans were found to suffer greater psychological distress than non-orphans (sex- and age-adjusted co-efficient: 0.15; 95% CI 0.03-0.26; P=0.013). Effects of orphanhood contributing to their increased levels of distress included trauma, being out-of-school, being cared for by a non-parent, inadequate care, child labour, physical abuse, and stigma and discrimination. Increased mobility and separation from siblings did not contribute to greater psychological distress in this study. Over 40% of orphaned children in the sample lived in households receiving external assistance. However, receipt of assistance was not associated with reduced psychological distress. These findings and the ideas put forward by children and caregivers in the focus group discussions suggest that community-based programmes that aim to improve caregiver selection, increase support for caregivers, and provide training in parenting responsibilities and skills might help to reduce psychological distress. These programmes should be under-pinned by further efforts to reduce poverty, increase school attendance and support out-of-school youth.

Prevalence and characteristics of asymptomatic norovirus infection in the community in England.

Norovirus is a major cause of infectious intestinal disease, and a substantial prevalence of asymptomatic infection has been reported. We describe the prevalence, seasonality and characteristics of asymptomatic norovirus infection in England. Healthy individuals were recruited at random from the general population during the Study of Infectious Intestinal Disease (1993-1996). Norovirus was identified using real-time RT-PCR. The age-adjusted prevalence of asymptomatic norovirus infection was 12%; prevalence was highest in children aged <5 years and showed wintertime seasonality. More work is needed to understand whether asymptomatic infections are important for norovirus transmission leading to sporadic illness and outbreaks.

Meeting Report: WHO Workshop on modelling global mortality and aetiology estimates of enteric pathogens in children under five. Cape Town, 28-29th November 2018.

Investment in vaccine product development should be guided by up-to-date and transparent global burden of disease estimates, which are also fundamental to policy recommendation and vaccine introduction decisions. For low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), vaccine prioritization is primarily driven by the number of deaths caused by different pathogens. Enteric diseases are known to be a major cause of death in LMICs. The two main modelling groups providing mortality estimates for enteric diseases are the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Seattle and the Maternal Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) group, led by Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Whilst previous global diarrhoea mortality estimates for under five-year-olds from these two groups were closely aligned, more recent estimates for 2016 have diverged, particularly with respect to numbers of deaths attributable to different enteric pathogens. This has impacted prioritization and investment decisions for vaccines in the development pipeline. The mission of the Product Development for Vaccines Advisory Committee (PDVAC) at the World Health Organisation (WHO) is to accelerate product development of vaccines and technologies that are urgently needed and ensure they are appropriately targeted for use in LMICs. At their 2018 meeting, PDVAC recommended the formation of an independent working group of subject matter experts to explore the reasons for the difference between the IHME and MCEE estimates, and to assess the respective strengths and limitations of the estimation approaches adopted, including a review of the data on which the estimates are based. Here, we report on the proceedings and recommendations from a consultation with the working group of experts, the IHME and MCEE modelling groups, and other key stakeholders. We briefly review the methodological approaches of both groups and provide a series of proposals for investigating the drivers for the differences in enteric disease burden estimates.

Role of widows in the heterosexual transmission of HIV in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, 1998-2003.

BACKGROUND: AIDS is the main driver of young widowhood in southern Africa. METHODS: The demographic characteristics of widows, their reported risk behaviours and the prevalence of HIV were examined by analysing a longitudinal population-based cohort of men and women aged 15-54 years in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. The results from statistical analyses were used to construct a mathematical simulation model with the aim of estimating the contribution of widow behaviour to heterosexual HIV transmission. RESULTS: 413 (11.4%) sexually experienced women and 31 (1.2%) sexually experienced men were reported to be widowed at the time of follow-up. The prevalence of HIV was exceptionally high among both widows (61%) and widowers (male widows) (54%). Widows were more likely to have high rates of partner change and engage in a pattern of transactional sex than married women. Widowers took partners who were a median of 10 years younger than themselves. Mathematical model simulations of different scenarios of sexual behaviour of widows suggested that the sexual activity of widow(er)s may underlie 8-17% of new HIV infections over a 20-year period. CONCLUSIONS: This combined statistical analysis and model simulation suggest that widowhood plays an important role in the transmission of HIV in this rural Zimbabwean population. High-risk partnerships may be formed when widowed men and women reconnect to the sexual network.

Clinical laboratory practices for the detection of rotavirus in England and Wales: can surveillance based on routine laboratory testing data be used to evaluate the impact of vaccination?

Two rotavirus vaccines have recently been licensed in Europe. Rotavirus surveillance data in many European countries are based on reports of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections. If surveillance data based on routine laboratory testing data are to be used to evaluate the impact of vaccination programmes, it is important to determine how the data are influenced by differences in testing practices, and how these practices are likely to affect the ability of the surveillance data to represent trends in rotavirus disease in the community. We conducted a survey of laboratory testing policies for rotavirus gastroenteritis in England and Wales in 2008. 60% (94/156) of laboratories responded to the survey. 91% of reporting laboratories offered routine testing for rotavirus all year round and 89% of laboratories offered routine rotavirus testing of all stool specimens from children under the age of five years. In 96% of laboratories, rotavirus detection was presently done either by rapid immunochromatographic tests or by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Currently, rotavirus testing policies among laboratories in England and Wales are relatively homogenous. Therefore, surveillance based on laboratory testing data is likely to be representative of rotavirus disease trends in the community in the most frequently affected age groups (children under the age of five years) and could be used to help determine the impact of a rotavirus vaccine.

Viral gastroenteritis outbreaks in deployed British troops during 2002-7.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to see what lessons could be learnt from the suspected viral gastroenteritis outbreaks that have occurred in deployed British troops during 2002-7. METHOD: Epidemiological and laboratory data from identifiable outbreaks were reviewed, including epidemic curves and the results of PCR testing for enteropathic viruses. RESULTS: The epidemic curves of outbreaks varied predictably in accordance with the size of the population at risk and whether this population was constant or expanding. Of 11 outbreaks identified, 10 (91%) had a proven viral cause and 10 (91%) occurred in Iraq. Of 84 enteropathic viruses identified, 61 (73%) were noroviruses and these included both unknown strains and those that were common in the UK and Europe. Of the 10 viral outbreaks, 3 (30%) occurred in medical units, 5 (50%) were associated with large-scale relief in place (RiP) deployments and 5 (50%) involved >3 different viruses, which is strongly suggestive of food or water contamination. CONCLUSION: These findings can help to predict future viral gastroenteritis outbreaks and target improved prevention strategies appropriately. However, more systematic studies are now required.

Institutional risk factors for outbreaks of nosocomial gastroenteritis: survival analysis of a cohort of hospital units in South-west England, 2002-2003.

Nosocomial outbreaks of gastroenteritis are a major burden on hospital inpatient services, costing an estimated pound115 million annually to the English National Health Service. We actively followed-up 171 inpatient units from four major acute hospitals and 11 community hospitals in South-west England for one year. Outbreaks of gastroenteritis were ascertained through an active surveillance network using standard clinical definitions. Survival analysis Cox regression models using an outbreak of gastroenteritis as the endpoint were fitted to identify institutional and operational attributes related to increased outbreak rates at the level of the care unit. Greater number of beds in unit [hazard ratio (HR) 1.22 (per 10 additional beds), 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.96-1.55] was associated with increased hazard, as were geriatric (HR 2.6, 95%CI 1.6-4.3) and general medical (HR 1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.6) care units. The average length of stay on a unit was inversely associated with outbreak incidence [HR=0.89 (per additional week of stay), 95%CI 0.80-0.99]. Larger care units and those with higher throughput have increased rates of gastroenteritis outbreaks. These results should guide infection control policy and support the design of hospitals with smaller care units.

Burden of norovirus in healthcare facilities and strategies for outbreak control.

Norovirus is the most frequently occurring cause of community-acquired acute gastroenteritis in people of all ages. It is also one of the most frequent causes of outbreaks in healthcare settings, affecting both long-term care facilities and acute care hospitals. Whereas norovirus gastroenteritis is typically mild and resolves without medical attention, healthcare-associated infections often affect vulnerable populations, resulting in severe infections and disruption of healthcare services. Globally, most norovirus outbreaks in hospitals and residential care institutions are associated with genogroup II type 4 (GII.4) strains. Recent data demonstrate that excess mortality occurs during outbreak periods in healthcare facilities. Nosocomial outbreaks can result in large economic and societal costs. Current control measures for norovirus are largely based on general infection control principles, and treatment is mainly supportive and non-specific. While neither vaccines nor antiviral agents are currently available, both are being developed with encouraging results.

Human caliciviruses in Europe.

Caliciviruses are single-stranded RNA viruses, which are divided into four genera based on their morphology and genomic structure. Viruses from two genera, the Norwalk like viruses and Sapporo like viruses, are a common cause of acute, nonbacterial gastroenteritis in humans. Although the first human calicivirus discovered nearly 30 years ago, much of the epidemiological and biological character of these viruses is only now beginning to unfold. Investigation has been difficult due to a number of factors, the viruses cannot be amplified by in vitro cell culture or animal models and electron microscopy (EM) is often not sensitive enough to detect the viruses in stool samples. Recent advances in molecular diagnostic techniques and the advent of a baculovirus expression system have highlighted the clinical and public health importance of calicivirus in all age groups, their ability to cause infection via a number of transmission routes as well as their considerable genetic diversity. These characteristics, in conjunction with the inability of humans to develop long-term immunity make HuCV an important public health issue in Europe and worldwide.

Evaluation of a commercial ELISA for detecting Norwalk-like virus antigen in faeces.

A commercially available enzyme immunoassay, the IDEIA Norwalk-like virus (NLV) enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA; Dako Cytomation, Ely, UK) for detecting NLV antigen in faecal samples and determining the NLV genogroup was evaluated. The performance of the ELISA was compared with that of electron microscopy and the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction by testing a panel of faecal samples collected from patients involved in outbreaks of gastroenteritis. When compared with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), the ELISA had a sensitivity and specificity of 55.5 and 98.3%, respectively. This compares with a sensitivity and specificity for EM of 23.9 and 99.2%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA for determining the aetiology of a Norwalk virus-like outbreak, based on two or more positive samples within an outbreak, were 52.2 and 100% when two samples were collected from an outbreak and 71.4 and 100% when six or more samples were collected. The ELISA correctly identified the NLV genogroups of viruses previously characterised by partial DNA sequencing. The ELISA is a suitable alternative to the preliminary screening by EM for investigating outbreaks of gastroenteritis. Outbreaks, negative by ELISA should be examined by RT-PCR in order to detect strains non-reactive in the assay and virus strains from representative ELISA positive outbreaks should be characterised fully to allow the genetic diversity of NLVs co-circulating in the population to be described.

National epidemic of Lordsdale Norovirus in the UK.

BACKGROUND: In early 2002 reports of outbreaks of gastroenteritis reached unprecedented levels in the UK. Forty five Norovirus outbreaks were reported in January 2002. OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to determine whether the outbreaks were Noroviral in origin and if so whether they represented a homogeneous or heterogeneous collection of Noroviruses by applying EIA and sequence analysis to representative faecal samples. STUDY DESIGN: Faecal specimens were collected during the week of highest incidence from 21 outbreaks in a variety of health care settings including hospitals and nursing homes. The outbreaks occurred in geographically distinct regions of the UK and samples were collected by reference laboratories in Glasgow, Manchester, Bristol and Southampton. RESULTS: The samples were all positive for Noroviruses by negative stain electron microscopy (EM) and Lordsdale virus (LV) EIA, therefore reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) amplification and nucleotide sequencing of the Norovirus RNA polymerase gene was performed on amplicons from samples of each of the 21 outbreaks to investigate the nature and extent of diversity. All samples were very closely related to the reference Lordsdale virus genome sequence. LV was first discovered during an hospital outbreak of gastroenteritis in Southampton General Hospital in March 1993. CONCLUSIONS: Noroviruses are a major cause of outbreaks of gastroenteritis in health care settings. LV is the predominant Norovirus in the UK and was detected in outbreaks that occurred during the national peak of gastroenteritis reports in January 2002.