Reporting England's progress towards the ambitions in the UK action plan for antimicrobial resistance: the English surveillance programme for antimicrobial utilisation and resistance (ESPAUR).

The plans for a new antimicrobial utilization and resistance national surveillance programme, alongside the development of quality measures and methods to monitor unintended outcomes of antimicrobial stewardship and both public and professional behaviour interventions were published in 2013. Since then, England has published an annual surveillance report including outlining progress against the ambitions of the UK national action plans on antimicrobial resistance (2013 to 2018 and 2019 to 2024). A decade later we provide a brief update on progress so far, with a focus on key highlights from the latest report published in November 2022. We also provide our recommendations for areas of focus as we move into the next decade. From an initial focus on antibiotic consumption and resistance, the report now includes surveillance data for antifungals, antivirals (including novel agents, such as those targeting SARS-CoV-2) and antimalarials. Evaluation of key stewardship interventions including professional and public engagement initiatives are also reported, as well as progress against NHS England's (NHSE's) improvement measures.

National point-prevalence survey of healthcare-associated infections and antimicrobial use: UK-PAS/UKHSA joint call to action for all paediatric services.

The negative impact of high antimicrobial use (AMU), antimicrobial resistance and healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs) on children is concerning. However, a lack of available paediatric data makes it challenging to design and implement interventions that would improve health outcomes in this population, and impedes efforts to secure additional resources. The upcoming 2023 national point-prevalence survey of HCAIs and AMU in hospitals, led by the UK Health Security Agency, is an opportunity to collect valuable information, which will enable healthcare providers and policy makers to optimize antimicrobial stewardship and infection prevention practices in all populations, including children. These data will facilitate benchmarking and sharing of best practice, internally, nationally and internationally. This is a joint call to action asking all healthcare professionals-particularly in paediatrics-to nominate a lead for their institution and participate in this survey, to ensure appropriate paediatric representation, and help protect children from these growing threats.

Exploring temporal trends and risk factors for resistance in Escherichia coli-causing bacteraemia in England between 2013 and 2018: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Escherichia coli are Gram-negative bacteria associated with an increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in England. OBJECTIVES: To create a comprehensive epidemiological picture of E. coli bacteraemia resistance trends and risk factors in England by linking national microbiology data sources and performing a longitudinal analysis of rates. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted on all national records for antimicrobial susceptibility testing on E. coli bacteraemia in England from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2018 from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the BSAC Resistance Surveillance Programme (BSAC-RSP). Trends in AMR and MDR were estimated using iterative sequential regression. Logistic regression analyses were performed on UKHSA data to estimate the relationship between risk factors and AMR or MDR in E. coli bacteraemia isolates. RESULTS: An increase in resistance rates was observed in community- and hospital-onset bacteraemia for third-generation cephalosporins, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin and ciprofloxacin. Among community-acquired cases, and after adjustment for other factors, patients aged >65 years were more likely to be infected by E. coli isolates resistant to at least one of 11 antibiotics than those aged 18-64 years (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.18-1.25; P < 0.05). In hospital-onset cases, E. coli isolates from those aged 1-17 years were more likely to be resistant than those aged 18-64 years (OR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.02-1.73; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic resistance rates in E. coli-causing bacteraemia increased between 2013 and 2018 in England for key antimicrobial agents. Findings of this study have implications for guiding future policies on a prescribing of antimicrobial agents, for specific patient populations in particular.

Screening for Candida auris in patients admitted to eight intensive care units in England, 2017 to 2018.

BackgroundCandida auris is an emerging multidrug-resistant fungal pathogen associated with bloodstream, wound and other infections, especially in critically ill patients. C. auris carriage is persistent and is difficult to eradicate from the hospital environment.AimWe aimed to pilot admission screening for C. auris in intensive care units (ICUs) in England to estimate prevalence in the ICU population and to inform public health guidance.MethodsBetween May 2017 and April 2018, we screened admissions to eight adult ICUs in hospitals with no previous cases of C. auris, in three major cities. Swabs were taken from the nose, throat, axilla, groin, perineum, rectum and catheter urine, then cultured and identified using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Patient records were linked to routine ICU data to describe and compare the demographic and health indicators of the screened cohort with a national cohort of ICU patients admitted between 2016 and 2017.ResultsAll C. auris screens for 921 adults from 998 admissions were negative. The upper confidence limit of the pooled prevalence across all sites was 0.4%. Comparison of the screened cohort with the national cohort showed it was broadly similar to the national cohort with respect to demographics and co-morbidities.ConclusionThese findings imply that C. auris colonisation among patients admitted to ICUs in England is currently rare. We would not currently recommend widespread screening for C. auris in ICUs in England. Hospitals should continue to screen high-risk individuals based on local risk assessment.

Investigation of the impact of the NICE guidelines regarding antibiotic prophylaxis during invasive dental procedures on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England: an electronic health records study.

BACKGROUND: Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change. METHODS: Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998-2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date. RESULTS: Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2-41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0-67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000-May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999-January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006-April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013-November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date. CONCLUSIONS: Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase.

'Caveat emptor': the cautionary tale of endocarditis and the potential pitfalls of clinical coding data-an electronic health records study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic codes from electronic health records are widely used to assess patterns of disease. Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, with objective diagnostic criteria. Electronic health records have been used to explore the impact of changing guidance on antibiotic prophylaxis for dental procedures on incidence, but limited data on the accuracy of the diagnostic codes exists. Endocarditis was used as a clinically relevant case study to investigate the relationship between clinical cases and diagnostic codes, to understand discrepancies and to improve design of future studies. METHODS: Electronic health record data from two UK tertiary care centres were linked with data from a prospectively collected clinical endocarditis service database (Leeds Teaching Hospital) or retrospective clinical audit and microbiology laboratory blood culture results (Oxford University Hospitals Trust). The relationship between diagnostic codes for endocarditis and confirmed clinical cases according to the objective Duke criteria was assessed, and impact on estimations of disease incidence and trends. RESULTS: In Leeds 2006-2016, 738/1681(44%) admissions containing any endocarditis code represented a definite/possible case, whilst 263/1001(24%) definite/possible endocarditis cases had no endocarditis code assigned. In Oxford 2010-2016, 307/552(56%) reviewed endocarditis-coded admissions represented a clinical case. Diagnostic codes used by most endocarditis studies had good positive predictive value (PPV) but low sensitivity (e.g. I33-primary 82% and 43% respectively); one (I38-secondary) had PPV under 6%. Estimating endocarditis incidence using raw admission data overestimated incidence trends twofold. Removing records with non-specific codes, very short stays and readmissions improved predictive ability. Estimating incidence of streptococcal endocarditis using secondary codes also overestimated increases in incidence over time. Reasons for discrepancies included changes in coding behaviour over time, and coding guidance allowing assignment of a code mentioning 'endocarditis' where endocarditis was never mentioned in the clinical notes. CONCLUSIONS: Commonly used diagnostic codes in studies of endocarditis had good predictive ability. Other apparently plausible codes were poorly predictive. Use of diagnostic codes without examining sensitivity and predictive ability can give inaccurate estimations of incidence and trends. Similar considerations may apply to other diseases. Health record studies require validation of diagnostic codes and careful data curation to minimise risk of serious errors.

Epidemiology and Outcomes of Nontyphoidal Salmonella Bacteremias from England, 2004 to 2015.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) bacteremia causes hospitalization and high morbidity and mortality. We linked Gastrointestinal Bacteria Reference Unit (GBRU) data to the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data set to study the trends and outcomes of NTS bacteremias in England between 2004 and 2015. All confirmed NTS isolates from blood from England submitted to GBRU between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2015 were deterministically linked to HES records. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR), proportions, and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to describe differences in age, sex, antibiotic resistance patterns, and serotypes over time. Males, neonates, and adults above 65 years were more likely to have NTS bacteremia (AOR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.46 to 1.67]; 2.57 [95% CI, 1.43 to 4.60]; and 3.56 [95% CI, 3.25 to 3.90], respectively). Proportions of bacteremia increased from 1.41% in 2004 to 2.67% in 2015. Thirty-four percent of all blood isolates were resistant to a first-line antibiotic, and 1,397 (56%) blood isolates were linked to an HES record. Of the patients with NTS bacteremia, 969 (69%) had a cardiovascular condition and 155 (12%) patients died, out of which 120 (77%) patients were age 65 years and above. NTS bacteremia mainly affects older people with comorbidities placing them at increased risk of prolonged hospital stay and death. Resistance of invasive NTS to first-line antimicrobial agents appeared to be stable in England, but the emergence of resistance to last-resort antibiotics, such as colistin, requires careful monitoring.

Adaptation of the WHO Essential Medicines List for national antibiotic stewardship policy in England: being AWaRe.

OBJECTIVES: Appropriate use of and access to antimicrobials are key priorities of global strategies to combat antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The WHO recently classified key antibiotics into three categories (AWaRe) to improve access (Access), monitor important antibiotics (Watch) and preserve effectiveness of 'last resort' antibiotics (Reserve). This classification was assessed for antibiotic stewardship and quality improvement in English hospitals. METHODS: Using an expert elicitation exercise, antibiotics used in England but not included in the WHO AWaRe index were added to an appropriate category following a workshop consensus exercise with national experts. The methodology was tested using national antibiotic prescribing data and presented by primary and secondary care. RESULTS: In 2016, 46/108 antibiotics included within the WHO AWaRe index were routinely used in England and an additional 25 antibiotics also commonly used in England were not included in the WHO AWaRe index. WHO AWaRe-excluded and -included antibiotics were reviewed and reclassified according to the England-adapted AWaRE index with the justification by experts for each addition or alteration. Applying the England-adapted AWaRe index, Access antibiotics accounted for the majority (60.9%) of prescribing, followed by Watch (37.9%) and Reserve (0.8%); 0.4% of antibiotics remained unclassified. There was unexplained 2-fold variation in prescribing between hospitals within each AWaRe category, highlighting the potential for quality improvement. CONCLUSIONS: We have adapted the WHO AWaRe index to create a specific index for England. The AWaRe index provides high-level understanding of antibiotic prescribing. Subsequent to this process the England AWaRe index is now embedded into national antibiotic stewardship policy and incentivized quality improvement schemes.

Association between use of different antibiotics and trimethoprim resistance: going beyond the obvious crude association.

Objectives: To evaluate the association between use of different antibiotics and trimethoprim resistance at the population level. Methods: Monthly primary care prescribing data were obtained from NHS Digital. Positive Enterobacteriaceae records from urine samples from patients between April 2014 and January 2016 in England were extracted from PHE's Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS). Elastic net regularization and generalized boosted regression models were used to evaluate associations between antibiotic prescribing and trimethoprim resistance, both measured at Clinical Commission Group level. Results: In total, 2 487 635 (99%) of 2 513 285 urine Enterobacteriaceae samples from 1 667 839 patients were tested for trimethoprim resistance. Using both elastic net regularization and generalized boosted regression models, geographical variation in trimethoprim resistance among Enterobacteriaceae urinary samples could be partly explained by geographical variation in use of trimethoprim (relative risk = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.02-1.75; relative influence = 4.1) and penicillins with extended spectrum (mainly amoxicillin/ampicillin in England) (relative risk = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.11-1.30; relative influence = 7.4). Nitrofurantoin use was associated with lower trimethoprim resistance levels (relative risk = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.57-0.96; relative influence = 9.2). Conclusions: Use of amoxicillin/ampicillin explained more of the variance in trimethoprim resistance than trimethoprim use, suggesting that co-selection by these antibiotics is an important driver of trimethoprim resistance levels at the population level. Nitrofurantoin use was consistently associated with lower trimethoprim resistance levels, indicating that trimethoprim resistance levels could be lowered if trimethoprim use is replaced by nitrofurantoin.

Improving feedback of surveillance data on antimicrobial consumption, resistance and stewardship in England: putting the data at your Fingertips.

The provision of better access to and use of surveillance data is a key component of the UK 5 Year Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Strategy. Since April 2016, PHE has made data on practice (infection prevention and control; antimicrobial stewardship) and outcome (prevalence of AMR, antibiotic use and healthcare-associated infections) available through Fingertips, a publicly accessible web tool (https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/amr-local-indicators). Fingertips provides access to a wide range of public health data presented as thematic profiles, with the above data being available through the 'AMR local indicators' profile. Local data on a range of indicators can be viewed at the level of National Health Service acute trusts, Clinical Commissioning Groups or general practitioner practices, all of which can be compared with the corresponding aggregate values for England to allow benchmarking. The data can be viewed in a range of formats including an overview showing counts and rates, interactive maps, spine charts and graphs that show temporal trends over a range of time scales or allow correlations between pairs of indicators. The aim of the AMR local indicators profile on Fingertips is to support the development of local action plans to optimize antibiotic prescribing and reduce AMR and healthcare-associated infections. Provision of access to relevant information in an easy to use format will help local stakeholders, including healthcare staff, commissioners, Directors of Public Health, academics and the public, to benchmark relevant local AMR data and to monitor the impact of local initiatives to tackle AMR over time.

Non-susceptibility of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp., Pseudomonas spp., Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus in the UK: temporal trends in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

OBJECTIVES: To monitor and compare trends in the non-susceptibility of bloodstream isolates of pathogens to key antibiotics in the constituent countries of the UK between 2010 and 2014. METHODS: Routinely generated antibiotic susceptibility test results for bloodstream isolates of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Klebsiella oxytoca, Pseudomonas spp., Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus were collected from hospital microbiology laboratories in each country. RESULTS: With the exception of a decrease in the proportion of S. aureus that were MRSA, non-susceptibility to key antibiotics among the pathogens studied remained largely unchanged over the 5 year study period, with any increases in non-susceptibility being small. Although some intercountry variation in the proportions of non-susceptible isolates was seen, apart from MRSA, the differences were generally small (<5%) and fluctuated from year to year, with no country showing consistently higher or lower rates of resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Collaboration between the constituent countries of the UK allows an integrated approach to nationwide surveillance of antibiotic resistance.

Detection of the plasmid-mediated mcr-1 gene conferring colistin resistance in human and food isolates of Salmonella enterica and Escherichia coli in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVES: In response to the first report of transmissible colistin resistance mediated by the mcr-1 gene in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella spp. from animals and humans in China, we sought to determine its presence in Enterobacteriaceae isolated in the UK. METHODS: The PHE archive of whole-genome sequences of isolates from surveillance collections, submissions to reference services and research projects was retrospectively analysed for the presence of mcr-1 using Genefinder. The genetic environment of the gene was also analysed. RESULTS: Rapid screening of the genomes of ∼24 000 Salmonella enterica, E. coli, Klebsiella spp., Enterobacter spp., Campylobacter spp. and Shigella spp. isolated from food or humans identified 15 mcr-1-positive isolates. These comprised: 10 human S. enterica isolates submitted between 2012 and 2015 (8 Salmonella Typhimurium, 1 Salmonella Paratyphi B var Java and 1 Salmonella Virchow) from 10 patients; 3 isolates of E. coli from 2 patients; and 2 isolates of Salmonella Paratyphi B var Java from poultry meat imported from the EU. The mcr-1 gene was located on diverse plasmids belonging to the IncHI2, IncI2 and IncX4 replicon types and its association with ISApl1 varied. Six mcr-1-positive S. enterica isolates were from patients who had recently travelled to Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of WGS data allowed rapid confirmation of the presence of the plasmid-mediated colistin resistance gene mcr-1 in diverse genetic environments and plasmids. It has been present in E. coli and Salmonella spp. harboured by humans in England and Wales since at least 2012.

Monitoring quality of care through linkage of administrative data: national trends in bloodstream infection in U.K. PICUs 2003-2012.

OBJECTIVES: Interventions to reduce hospital-acquired bloodstream infection have succeeded in reducing rates in U.S. PICUs, but there is a lack of evidence for the impact of similar interventions in the United Kingdom. We assessed variation in bloodstream infection rates within and between PICUs over a 10-year period, during which time infection control strategies (care bundles) were implemented. DESIGN: Observational study linking laboratory data to national audit data of pediatric intensive care admissions (Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network). SETTING: Twenty PICUs in England and Wales, 2003-2012. PATIENTS: One hundred and two thousand nine hundred ninety-nine children less than 16 years. INTERVENTIONS: Implementation of infection control strategies in PICU captured through a survey of clinicians. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Rates of bloodstream infection per 1,000 bed-days were estimated from samples taken between 2 days after admission and up to 2 days following discharge from PICU. Two percent of children experienced at least one bloodstream infection, corresponding to 5.11 (95% CI, 4.90-5.31) per 1,000 bed-days. There was a significant difference in trends preimplementation of infection control strategies (annual decrease of 8.0%; 95% CI, 6.3-9.7%) versus postimplementation (annual decrease of 13.4%; 95% CI, 10.3-16.4%). By 24 months postimplementation, the rate of bloodstream infection had fallen 25.5% and was 15.1% lower than would have been expected if preimplementation trends had continued. CONCLUSIONS: Our population-based study of PICUs in England and Wales demonstrates a steady decline in bloodstream infection rates over time. In addition, there was a significant and incremental further decrease in rates associated with timing of implementation of infection control strategies. Assessment of bloodstream infection trends before as well as after implementation of infection control strategies can be facilitated using data linkage and is important to avoid overestimating the impact of unit-level interventions to improve infection control. Advances in collection and linkage of real-time data could further support quality improvement efforts.

Incidence, etiology, and outcome of bacterial meningitis in infants aged <90 days in the United kingdom and Republic of Ireland: prospective, enhanced, national population-based surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial meningitis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in young infants. Understanding the epidemiology and burden of disease is important. METHODS: Prospective, enhanced, national population-based active surveillance was undertaken to determine the incidence, etiology, and outcome of bacterial meningitis in infants aged <90 days in the United Kingdom and Ireland. RESULTS: During July 2010-July 2011, 364 cases were identified (annual incidence, 0.38/1000 live births; 95% confidence interval [CI], .35-.42). In England and Wales, the incidence of confirmed neonatal bacterial meningitis was 0.21 (n = 167; 95% CI, .18-.25). A total of 302 bacteria were isolated in 298 (82%) of the cases. The pathogens responsible varied by route of admission, gestation at birth, and age at infection. Group B Streptococcus (GBS) (150/302 [50%]; incidence, 0.16/1000 live births; 95% CI, .13-.18) and Escherichia coli (41/302 [14%]; incidence, 0.04/1000; 95% CI, .03-.06) were responsible for approximately two-thirds of identified bacteria. Pneumococcal (28/302 [9%]) and meningococcal (23/302 [8%]) meningitis were rare in the first month, whereas Listeria meningitis was seen only in the first month of life (11/302 [4%]). In hospitalized preterm infants, the etiology of both early- and late-onset meningitis was more varied. Overall case fatality was 8% (25/329) and was higher for pneumococcal meningitis (5/26 [19%]) than GBS meningitis (7/135 [5%]; P = .04) and for preterm (15/90 [17%]) compared with term (10/235 [4%]; P = .0002) infants. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of bacterial meningitis in young infants remains unchanged since the 1980s and is associated with significant case fatality. Prevention strategies and guidelines to improve the early management of cases should be prioritized.

Evaluating bias due to data linkage error in electronic healthcare records.

BACKGROUND: Linkage of electronic healthcare records is becoming increasingly important for research purposes. However, linkage error due to mis-recorded or missing identifiers can lead to biased results. We evaluated the impact of linkage error on estimated infection rates using two different methods for classifying links: highest-weight (HW) classification using probabilistic match weights and prior-informed imputation (PII) using match probabilities. METHODS: A gold-standard dataset was created through deterministic linkage of unique identifiers in admission data from two hospitals and infection data recorded at the hospital laboratories (original data). Unique identifiers were then removed and data were re-linked by date of birth, sex and Soundex using two classification methods: i) HW classification - accepting the candidate record with the highest weight exceeding a threshold and ii) PII-imputing values from a match probability distribution. To evaluate methods for linking data with different error rates, non-random error and different match rates, we generated simulation data. Each set of simulated files was linked using both classification methods. Infection rates in the linked data were compared with those in the gold-standard data. RESULTS: In the original gold-standard data, 1496/20924 admissions linked to an infection. In the linked original data, PII provided least biased results: 1481 and 1457 infections (upper/lower thresholds) compared with 1316 and 1287 (HW upper/lower thresholds). In the simulated data, substantial bias (up to 112%) was introduced when linkage error varied by hospital. Bias was also greater when the match rate was low or the identifier error rate was high and in these cases, PII performed better than HW classification at reducing bias due to false-matches. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of evaluating the potential impact of linkage error on results. PII can help incorporate linkage uncertainty into analysis and reduce bias due to linkage error, without requiring identifiers.

Quantifying the primary and secondary effects of antimicrobial resistance on surgery patients: Methods and data sources for empirical estimation in England.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) may negatively impact surgery patients through reducing the efficacy of treatment of surgical site infections, also known as the "primary effects" of AMR. Previous estimates of the burden of AMR have largely ignored the potential "secondary effects," such as changes in surgical care pathways due to AMR, such as different infection prevention procedures or reduced access to surgical procedures altogether, with literature providing limited quantifications of this potential burden. Former conceptual models and approaches for quantifying such impacts are available, though they are often high-level and difficult to utilize in practice. We therefore expand on this earlier work to incorporate heterogeneity in antimicrobial usage, AMR, and causative organisms, providing a detailed decision-tree-Markov-hybrid conceptual model to estimate the burden of AMR on surgery patients. We collate available data sources in England and describe how routinely collected data could be used to parameterise such a model, providing a useful repository of data systems for future health economic evaluations. The wealth of national-level data available for England provides a case study in describing how current surveillance and administrative data capture systems could be used in the estimation of transition probability and cost parameters. However, it is recommended that such data are utilized in combination with expert opinion (for scope and scenario definitions) to robustly estimate both the primary and secondary effects of AMR over time. Though we focus on England, this discussion is useful in other settings with established and/or developing infectious diseases surveillance systems that feed into AMR National Action Plans.

Surveillance of Antibacterial Usage during the COVID-19 Pandemic in England, 2020.

Changes in antibacterial prescribing during the COVID-19 pandemic were anticipated given that the clinical features of severe respiratory infection syndrome caused by SARS-CoV-2 mirror bacterial respiratory tract infections. Antibacterial consumption was measured in items/1000 population for primary care and in Defined Daily Doses (DDDs)/1000 admissions for secondary care in England from 2015 to October 2020. Interrupted time-series analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of the pandemic on antibacterial consumption. In the community, the rate of antibacterial items prescribed decreased further in 2020 (by an extra 1.4% per month, 95% CI: -2.3 to -0.5) compared to before COVID-19. In hospitals, the volume of antibacterial use decreased during COVID-19 overall (-12.1% compared to pre-COVID, 95% CI: -19.1 to -4.4), although the rate of usage in hospitals increased steeply in April 2020. Use of antibacterials prescribed for respiratory infections and broad-spectrum antibacterials (predominately 'Watch' antibacterials in hospitals) increased in both settings. Overall volumes of antibacterial use at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic decreased in both primary and secondary settings, although there were increases in the rate of usage in hospitals in April 2020 and in specific antibacterials. This highlights the importance of antimicrobial stewardship during pandemics to ensure appropriate prescribing and avoid negative consequences on patient outcomes and antimicrobial resistance.

Effect of antibiotic stewardship interventions in primary care on antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England (2013-18): a quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a major global health concern, driven by overuse of antibiotics. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a national antimicrobial stewardship intervention, the National Health Service (NHS) England Quality Premium implemented in 2015-16, on broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing and Escherichia coli bacteraemia resistance to broad-spectrum antibiotics in England. METHODS: In this quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study, we used longitudinal data on bacteraemia for patients registered with a general practitioner in the English National Health Service and patients with E coli bacteraemia notified to the national mandatory surveillance programme between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2018. We linked these data to data on antimicrobial susceptibility testing of E coli from Public Health England's Second-Generation Surveillance System. We did an ecological analysis using interrupted time-series analyses and generalised estimating equations to estimate the change in broad-spectrum antibiotics prescribing over time and the change in the proportion of E coli bacteraemia cases for which the causative bacteria were resistant to each antibiotic individually or to at least one of five broad-spectrum antibiotics (co-amoxiclav, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, ofloxacin), after implementation of the NHS England Quality Premium intervention in April, 2015. FINDINGS: Before implementation of the Quality Premium, the rate of antibiotic prescribing for all five broad-spectrum antibiotics was increasing at rate of 0·2% per month (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·002 [95% CI 1·000-1·004], p=0·046). After implementation of the Quality Premium, an immediate reduction in total broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing rate was observed (IRR 0·867 [95% CI 0·837-0·898], p<0·0001). This effect was sustained until the end of the study period; a 57% reduction in rate of antibiotic prescribing was observed compared with the counterfactual situation (ie, had the Quality Premium not been implemented). In the same period, the rate of resistance to at least one broad-spectrum antibiotic increased at rate of 0·1% per month (IRR 1·001 [95% CI 0·999-1·003], p=0·346). On implementation of the Quality Premium, an immediate reduction in resistance rate to at least one broad-spectrum antibiotic was observed (IRR 0·947 [95% CI 0·918-0·977], p=0·0007). Although this effect was also sustained until the end of the study period, with a 12·03% reduction in resistance rate compared with the counterfactual situation, the overall trend remained on an upward trajectory. On examination of the long-term effect following implementation of the Quality Premium, there was an increase in the number of isolates resistant to at least one of the five broad-spectrum antibiotics tested (IRR 1·002 [1·000-1·003]; p=0·047). INTERPRETATION: Although interventions targeting antibiotic use can result in changes in resistance over a short period, they might be insufficient alone to curtail antimicrobial resistance. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Economic and Social Research Council, Rosetrees Trust, and The Stoneygate Trust.

Interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, and the impact of coinfection on disease severity: a test-negative design.

BACKGROUND: The impact of SARS-CoV-2 alongside influenza is a major concern in the northern hemisphere as winter approaches. METHODS: Test data for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 from national surveillance systems between 20 January 2020 and 25 April 2020 were used to estimate influenza infection on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. A test-negative design was used to assess the odds of SARS-CoV-2 in those who tested positive for influenza compared with those who tested negative. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 was also assessed using univariable and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: The risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was 58% lower among influenza-positive cases and patients with a coinfection had a risk of death of 5.92 (95% confidence interval: 3.21-10.91) times greater than among those with neither influenza nor SARS-CoV-2. The odds of ventilator use or death and intensive care unit admission or death were greatest among coinfected patients. CONCLUSIONS: Coinfection of these viruses could have a significant impact on morbidity, mortality and health-service demand.

Impact of the childhood influenza vaccine programme on antibiotic prescribing rates in primary care in England.

Vaccines are a key part of the global strategy to tackle antimicrobial resistance (AMR) since prevention of infection should reduce antibiotic use. England commenced national rollout of a live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) programme for children aged 2-3 years together with a series of geographically discrete pilot areas for primary school age children in 2013 extending to older children in subsequent seasons. We investigated vaccine programme impact on community antibiotic prescribing rates. Antibiotic prescribing incidence rates for respiratory (RTI) and urinary tract infections (UTI; controls) were calculated at general practice (GP) level by age category (children<=10 years/adults) and season for LAIV pilot and non-pilot areas between 2013/14 and 2015/16. To estimate the LAIV (primary school age children only) intervention effect, a random effects model was fitted. A multivariable random-effects Poisson regression investigated the association of antibiotic prescribing rates in children with LAIV uptake (2-3-year-olds only) at GP practice level. RTI antibiotic prescribing rates for children <=10 years and adults showed clear seasonal trends and were lower in LAIV-pilot and non-pilot areas after the introduction of the LAIV programme in 2013. The reductions for RTI prescriptions (children) were similar (within 3%) in all areas, which coincided with the start the UK AMR strategy. Antibiotic prescribing was significantly (p < 0.0001) related to LAIV uptake in 2-3-year-olds with antibiotic prescribing reduced by 2.7% (95% CI: 2.1% to 3.4%) for every 10% increase in uptake. We found no evidence the LAIV programme for primary school age children resulted in reductions in RTI antibiotic prescribing, however we detected a significant inverse association between increased vaccine uptake in pre-school age children and antibiotic prescribing at GP level. The temporal association of reduced RTI and UTI antibiotic prescribing with the launch of the UK's AMR Strategy in 2013 highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach to tackle AMR.