Health benefits of US light-duty vehicle electrification: Roles of fleet dynamics, clean electricity, and policy timing.

We present a dynamic perspective to quantify the air quality-related health impacts of the electrification of light-duty vehicles in the United States between 2022 and 2050. Using a fleet turnover model and future electricity generation mix scenarios, we compare ambitious vehicle electrification to fleet renewal relying on newer internal combustion engine vehicles, without electric vehicles. The model includes vehicle-level pollutant emission factors and a reduced complexity air quality and valuation model and covers direct (tailpipe, brake wear, and tire wear) and indirect (production of electricity and liquid fuels) emissions of NOx, SO2, PM2.5, NH3, and VOCs, with a breakdown at the county level to identify geographical disparities in the distribution of health impacts. Short-term health benefits are mostly generated by reductions in NOx emissions from newer gasoline vehicles, while fleet electrification generates further benefits in the long term. The electricity mix plays a crucial role in the success of electrification policies. With continued grid decarbonization, electrification would reduce harmful air quality-related health impacts cumulatively by 84 to 188 billion USD over the study period, compared with fleet renewal without electric vehicles. In contrast, artificially freezing the 2022 grid would make electrification responsible for 32 to 71 billion USD additional health disbenefits compared with fleet renewal. Finally, we show that while fleet electrification achieves most of its benefits over fleet renewal in the long term, delaying the implementation of such policies would sacrifice meaningful cumulative benefits.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Pathways for Urban Passenger Land Transport under Ambitious Climate Targets.

Urban passenger land transport is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, but it is challenging to mitigate these emissions as this sector interacts with many other economic sectors. We develop the Climate change constrained Urban passenger Transport Integrated Life cycle assessment (CURTAIL) model to outline mitigation pathways of urban passenger land transport that are consistent with ambitious climate targets. CURTAIL uses the transport activity of exogenously defined modal shares to simulate the associated annual vehicle stocks, sales, and life cycle GHG emissions. It estimates GHG emission budgets that are consistent with global warming below 2 and 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and seeks mitigation strategies to remain within the budgets. We apply it to a case study of Singapore, a city-state. Meeting a 1.5 °C target requires strong commitments in the transport and electricity sectors, such as reducing the motorized passenger activity, accelerating the deployment of public transit and of electrification, and decarbonizing the power generation system. Focusing on one mitigation technology or one mode of transport alone will not be sufficient to meet the target. Our novel model could be applied to any city to provide insights relevant to the design of urban climate change mitigation targets and policies.

Optimizing the Use of a Constrained Resource to Minimize Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Case Study of Slag in Ontario's Concrete.

Green policies currently incentivize concrete producers to replace portland cement with industrial byproducts to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, policies are based on attributional life cycle assessments (LCAs) that do not account for market constraints and consider byproducts either available burden-free to the user (cutoff approach) or partially responsible for the emissions generated in the upstream processes (allocation). The goal of this study was to investigate whether these approaches (and incentives) could lead to a mismanagement of byproducts and to suboptimal solutions in terms of regional GHG emissions. The use of ground granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS) in Ontario was studied, and an optimization model to find the least GHG-intense way of using GGBS was developed. Results showed that producers should replace 30 to 40% of portland cement in high-strength concrete to minimize the regional GHG emissions associated with concrete. However, traditional LCA approaches do not suggest this solution and are estimated to lead to up to a 10% increase in concrete GHG emissions in Ontario. The substitution method, which assigns emissions or credits to byproducts based on emissions associated with the products they may displace, can yield decisions consistent with the regional emission optimization model. A revision of current policies is recommended to include market constraints.

A Dynamic Fleet Model of U.S Light-Duty Vehicle Lightweighting and Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2016 to 2050.

Substituting conventional materials with lightweight materials is an effective way to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light-duty vehicles. However, estimated GHG emission reductions of lightweighting depend on multiple factors including the vehicle powertrain technology and efficiency, lightweight material employed, and end-of-life material recovery. We developed a fleet-based life cycle model to estimate the GHG emission changes due to lightweighting the U.S. light-duty fleet from 2016 to 2050, using either high strength steel or aluminum as the lightweight material. Our model estimates that implementation of an aggressive lightweighting scenario using aluminum reduces 2016 through 2050 cumulative life cycle GHG emissions from the fleet by 2.9 Gt CO2 eq (5.6%), and annual emissions in 2050 by 11%. Lightweighting has the greatest GHG emission reduction potential when implemented in the near-term, with two times more reduction per kilometer traveled if implemented in 2016 rather than in 2030. Delaying implementation by 15 years sacrifices 72% (2.1 Gt CO2 eq) of the cumulative GHG emission mitigation potential through 2050. Lightweighting is an effective solution that could provide important near-term GHG emission reductions especially during the next 10-20 years when the fleet is dominated by conventional powertrain vehicles.

Evaluation of Variability in Greenhouse Gas Intensity of Canadian Oil Sands Surface Mining and Upgrading Operations.

We present a statistically enhanced version of the GreenHouse gas emissions of current Oil Sands Technologies model that facilitates characterization of variability of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with mining and upgrading of bitumen from Canadian oil sands. Over 30 years of publicly available project-specific operating data are employed as inputs, enabling Monte Carlo simulation of individual projects and the entire industry, for individual years and project life cycles. We estimate that median lifetime GHG intensities range from 89 to 137 kg CO2eq/bbl synthetic crude oil (SCO) for projects that employ upgrading. The only project producing dilbit that goes directly to a refinery has a median lifetime GHG intensity of 51 kg CO2eq/bbl dilbit. As SCO and dilbit are distinct products with different downstream processing energy requirements, a life cycle assessment ("well to wheel") is needed to properly compare them. Projects do not reach steady-state in terms of median GHG intensity. Projects with broader distributions of annual GHG intensities and higher median values are linked to specific events (e.g., project expansions). An implication for policymakers is that no specific technology or operating factor can be directly linked to GHG intensity and no particular project or year of operation can be seen as representative of the industry or production technology.

Statistically Enhanced Model of In Situ Oil Sands Extraction Operations: An Evaluation of Variability in Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with extraction of bitumen from oil sands can vary from project to project and over time. However, the nature and magnitude of this variability have yet to be incorporated into life cycle studies. We present a statistically enhanced life cycle based model (GHOST-SE) for assessing variability of GHG emissions associated with the extraction of bitumen using in situ techniques in Alberta, Canada. It employs publicly available, company-reported operating data, facilitating assessment of inter- and intraproject variability as well as the time evolution of GHG emissions from commercial in situ oil sands projects. We estimate the median GHG emissions associated with bitumen production via cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) to be 77 kg CO2eq/bbl bitumen (80% CI: 61-109 kg CO2eq/bbl), and via steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to be 68 kg CO2eq/bbl bitumen (80% CI: 49-102 kg CO2eq/bbl). We also show that the median emissions intensity of Alberta's CSS and SAGD projects have been relatively stable from 2000 to 2013, despite greater than 6-fold growth in production. Variability between projects is the single largest source of variability (driven in part by reservoir characteristics) but intraproject variability (e.g., startups, interruptions), is also important and must be considered in order to inform research or policy priorities.

Review of the Fuel Saving, Life Cycle GHG Emission, and Ownership Cost Impacts of Lightweighting Vehicles with Different Powertrains.

The literature analyzing the fuel saving, life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and ownership cost impacts of lightweighting vehicles with different powertrains is reviewed. Vehicles with lower powertrain efficiencies have higher fuel consumption. Thus, fuel savings from lightweighting internal combustion engine vehicles can be higher than those of hybrid electric and battery electric vehicles. However, the impact of fuel savings on life cycle costs and GHG emissions depends on fuel prices, fuel carbon intensities and fuel storage requirements. Battery electric vehicle fuel savings enable reduction of battery size without sacrificing driving range. This reduces the battery production cost and mass, the latter results in further fuel savings. The carbon intensity of electricity varies widely and is a major source of uncertainty when evaluating the benefits of fuel savings. Hybrid electric vehicles use gasoline more efficiently than internal combustion engine vehicles and do not require large plug-in batteries. Therefore, the benefits of lightweighting depend on the vehicle powertrain. We discuss the value proposition of the use of lightweight materials and alternative powertrains. Future assessments of the benefits of vehicle lightweighting should capture the unique characteristics of emerging vehicle powertrains.

Development and Application of a Life Cycle-Based Model to Evaluate Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Oil Sands Upgrading Technologies.

A life cycle-based model, OSTUM (Oil Sands Technologies for Upgrading Model), which evaluates the energy intensity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of current oil sands upgrading technologies, is developed. Upgrading converts oil sands bitumen into high quality synthetic crude oil (SCO), a refinery feedstock. OSTUM's novel attributes include the following: the breadth of technologies and upgrading operations options that can be analyzed, energy intensity and GHG emissions being estimated at the process unit level, it not being dependent on a proprietary process simulator, and use of publicly available data. OSTUM is applied to a hypothetical, but realistic, upgrading operation based on delayed coking, the most common upgrading technology, resulting in emissions of 328 kg CO2e/m3 SCO. The primary contributor to upgrading emissions (45%) is the use of natural gas for hydrogen production through steam methane reforming, followed by the use of natural gas as fuel in the rest of the process units' heaters (39%). OSTUM's results are in agreement with those of a process simulation model developed by CanmetENERGY, other literature, and confidential data of a commercial upgrading operation. For the application of the model, emissions are found to be most sensitive to the amount of natural gas utilized as feedstock by the steam methane reformer. OSTUM is capable of evaluating the impact of different technologies, feedstock qualities, operating conditions, and fuel mixes on upgrading emissions, and its life cycle perspective allows easy incorporation of results into well-to-wheel analyses.

Life cycle air emissions impacts and ownership costs of light-duty vehicles using natural gas as a primary energy source.

This paper aims to comprehensively distinguish among the merits of different vehicles using a common primary energy source. In this study, we consider compressed natural gas (CNG) use directly in conventional vehicles (CV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and natural gas-derived electricity (NG-e) use in plug-in battery electric vehicles (BEV). This study evaluates the incremental life cycle air emissions (climate change and human health) impacts and life cycle ownership costs of non-plug-in (CV and HEV) and plug-in light-duty vehicles. Replacing a gasoline CV with a CNG CV, or a CNG CV with a CNG HEV, can provide life cycle air emissions impact benefits without increasing ownership costs; however, the NG-e BEV will likely increase costs (90% confidence interval: $1000 to $31 000 incremental cost per vehicle lifetime). Furthermore, eliminating HEV tailpipe emissions via plug-in vehicles has an insignificant incremental benefit, due to high uncertainties, with emissions cost benefits between -$1000 and $2000. Vehicle criteria air contaminants are a relatively minor contributor to life cycle air emissions impacts because of strict vehicle emissions standards. Therefore, policies should focus on adoption of plug-in vehicles in nonattainment regions, because CNG vehicles are likely more cost-effective at providing overall life cycle air emissions impact benefits.

Modelling spatial & temporal variability of air pollution in an area of unconventional natural gas operations.

Despite the growing unconventional natural gas production industry in northeastern British Columbia, Canada, few studies have explored the air quality implications on human health in nearby communities. Researchers who have worked with pregnant women in this area have found higher levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the indoor air of their homes associated with higher density and closer proximity to gas wells. To inform ongoing exposure assessments, this study develops land use regression (LUR) models to predict ambient air pollution at the homes of pregnant women by using natural gas production activities as predictor variables. Using the existing monitoring network, the models were developed for three temporal scales for 12 air pollutants. The models predicting monthly, bi-annual, and annual mean concentrations explained 23%-94%, 54%-94%, and 73%-91% of the variability in air pollutant concentrations, respectively. These models can be used to investigate associations between prenatal exposure to air pollutants associated with natural gas production and adverse health outcomes in northeastern British Columbia.

Residential proximity to conventional and unconventional wells and exposure to indoor air volatile organic compounds in the Exposures in the Peace River Valley (EXPERIVA) study.

BACKGROUND: In a previous study located in Northeastern British Columbia (Canada), we observed associations between density and proximity of oil and gas wells and indoor air concentrations of certain volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Whether conventional or unconventional well types and phases of unconventional development contribute to these associations remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between proximity-based metrics for conventional and unconventional wells and measured indoor air VOC concentrations in the Exposures in the Peace River Valley (EXPERIVA) study samples. METHODS: Eighty-four pregnant individuals participated in EXPERIVA. Passive indoor air samplers were analyzed for 47 VOCs. Oil and gas well legacy data were sourced from the British Columbia Energy Regulator. For each participant's home, 5 km, 10 km and no buffer distances were delineated, then density and Inverse Distance Square Weighted (ID2W) metrics were calculated to estimate exposure to conventional and unconventional wells during pregnancy and the VOC measurement period. Multiple linear regression models were used to test for associations between the well exposure metrics and indoor air VOCs. For exposure metrics with >30% participants having a value of 0, we dichotomized exposure (0 vs. >0) and performed ANOVAs to assess differences in mean VOCs concentrations. RESULTS: Analyses indicated that: 1) conventional well density and ID2W metrics were positively associated with indoor air acetone and decanal; 2) unconventional well density and ID2W metrics were positively associated with indoor air chloroform and decamethylcyclopentasiloxane, and negatively associated with decanal; 3) drilling specific ID2W metrics for unconventional wells were positively associated with indoor air chloroform. CONCLUSION: Our analysis revealed that the association between the exposure metrics and indoor air acetone could be attributed to conventional wells and the association between exposure metrics and indoor air chloroform and decamethylcyclopentasiloxane could be attributed to unconventional wells.

Ethanol or bioelectricity? Life cycle assessment of lignocellulosic bioenergy use in light-duty vehicles.

Our study evaluates life cycle energy use and GHG emissions of lignocellulosic ethanol and bioelectricity use in U.S. light-duty vehicles. The well-to-pump, pump-to-wheel, and vehicle cycle stages are modeled. All ethanol (E85) and bioelectricity pathways have similar life cycle fossil energy use (~ 100 MJ/100 vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT)) and net GHG emissions (~5 kg CO2eq./100 VKT), considerably lower (65-85%) than those of reference gasoline and U.S. grid-electricity pathways. E85 use in a hybrid vehicle and bioelectricity use in a fully electric vehicle also have similar life cycle biomass and total energy use (~ 350 and ~450 MJ/100 VKT, respectively); differences in well-to-pump and pump-to-wheel efficiencies can largely offset each other. Our energy use and net GHG emissions results contrast with findings in literature, which report better performance on these metrics for bioelectricity compared to ethanol. The primary source of differences in the studies is related to our development of pathways with comparable vehicle characteristics. Ethanol or vehicle electrification can reduce petroleum use, while bioelectricity may displace nonpetroleum energy sources. Regional characteristics may create conditions under which either ethanol or bioelectricity may be the superior option; however, neither has a clear advantage in terms of GHG emissions or energy use.

Predicting project environmental performance under market uncertainties: case study of oil sands coke.

A method combining life cycle assessment (LCA) and real options analyses is developed to predict project environmental and financial performance over time, under market uncertainties and decision-making flexibility. The method is applied to examine alternative uses for oil sands coke, a carbonaceous byproduct of processing the unconventional petroleum found in northern Alberta, Canada. Under uncertainties in natural gas price and the imposition of a carbon price, our method identifies that selling the coke to China for electricity generation by integrated gasification combined cycle is likely to be financially preferred initially, but eventually hydrogen production in Alberta is likely to be preferred. Compared to the results of a previous study that used life cycle costing to identify the financially preferred alternative, the inclusion of real options analysis adds value as it accounts for flexibility in decision-making (e.g., to delay investment), increasing the project's expected net present value by 25% and decreasing the expected life cycle greenhouse gas emissions by 11%. Different formulations of the carbon pricing policy or changes to the natural gas price forecast alter these findings. The combined LCA/real options method provides researchers and decision-makers with more comprehensive information than can be provided by either technique alone.

The complex relationship between carbon literacy and pro-environmental actions among engineering students.

Lifestyle choices and consumption play a large role in contributing to per capita greenhouse gas emissions. Certain activities, like fossil fuel ground transportation, long-haul flights, diets with animal products and residential heating and cooling contribute significantly to per capita emissions. There is uncertainty around whether literacy about these actions encourages individuals to act pro-environmentally to reduce personal carbon footprints or to prioritize the most effective actions. This study investigated the relationship between carbon literacy and pro-environmental actions performed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions among undergraduate engineering students at the University of Toronto. The pro-environmental actions by the participants produced an average carbon footprint of 4.8 tCO2 (within the subset of actions included in the survey) which was lower than the average for residents each of Toronto, Ontario, and Canada overall but still higher than the global target of ∼2.8 tCO2e. The carbon literacy by participants was best for high impact actions like ground transportation and dietary choices but less so for air travel and there was mixed awareness for the moderate and low impact actions. For high impact actions and many moderate and low impact actions, participants who thought the action was high impact (even if incorrect) had lower carbon footprints related to the associated activity than those who thought the action was moderate or low impact. The overall relationship between pro-environmental action and carbon literacy was weak. It showed that for high impact actions, there is a slight negative correlation between carbon literacy and personal carbon footprint whereas for moderate and low impact actions, there is a positive correlation.

Estimating the environmental impacts of global lithium-ion battery supply chain: A temporal, geographical, and technological perspective.

A sustainable low-carbon transition via electric vehicles will require a comprehensive understanding of lithium-ion batteries' global supply chain environmental impacts. Here, we analyze the cradle-to-gate energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of current and future nickel-manganese-cobalt and lithium-iron-phosphate battery technologies. We consider existing battery supply chains and future electricity grid decarbonization prospects for countries involved in material mining and battery production. Currently, around two-thirds of the total global emissions associated with battery production are highly concentrated in three countries as follows: China (45%), Indonesia (13%), and Australia (9%). On a unit basis, projected electricity grid decarbonization could reduce emissions of future battery production by up to 38% by 2050. An aggressive electric vehicle uptake scenario could result in cumulative emissions of 8.1 GtCO2eq by 2050 due to the manufacturing of nickel-based chemistries. However, a switch to lithium iron phosphate-based chemistry could enable emission savings of about 1.5 GtCO2eq. Secondary materials, via recycling, can help reduce primary supply requirements and alleviate the environmental burdens associated with the extraction and processing of materials from primary sources, where direct recycling offers the lowest impacts, followed by hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 61, 51, and 17%, respectively. This study can inform global and regional clean energy strategies to boost technology innovations, decarbonize the electricity grid, and optimize the global supply chain toward a net-zero future.

Electricity production from anaerobic digestion of household organic waste in Ontario: techno-economic and GHG emission analyses.

The first Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) program in North America was recently implemented in Ontario, Canada to stimulate the generation of electricity from renewable sources. The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economics of electricity generation through anaerobic digestion (AD) of household source-separated organic waste (HSSOW) are investigated within the FiT program. AD can potentially provide considerable GHG emission reductions (up to 1 t CO(2)eq/t HSSOW) at relatively low to moderate cost (-$35 to 160/t CO(2)eq) by displacing fossil electricity and preventing the emission of landfill gas. It is a cost-effective GHG mitigation option compared to some other FiT technologies (e.g., wind, solar photovoltaic) and provides unique additional benefits (waste diversion, nutrient recycling). The combination of electricity sales at a premium rate, savings in waste management costs, and economies of scale allow AD facilities processing >30,000 t/yr to be cost-competitive against landfilling. However, the FiT does not sufficiently support smaller-scale facilities that are needed as a transition to larger, more economically viable facilities. Refocusing of the FiT program and waste policies are needed to support the adoption of AD of HSSOW, which has not yet been developed in the Province, while more costly technologies (e.g., photovoltaic) have been deployed.

Implications of driving patterns on well-to-wheel performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

This study examines how driving patterns (distance and conditions) and the electricity generation supply interact to impact well-to-wheel (WTW) energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The WTW performance of a PHEV is compared with that of a similar (nonplug-in) gasoline hybrid electric vehicle and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). Driving PHEVs for short distances between recharging generally results in lower WTW total and fossil energy use and GHG emissions per kilometer compared to driving long distances, but the extent of the reductions depends on the electricity supply. For example, the shortest driving pattern in this study with hydroelectricity uses 81% less fossil energy than the longest driving pattern. However, the shortest driving pattern with coal-based electricity uses only 28% less fossil energy. Similar trends are observed in reductions relative to the nonplug-in vehicles. Irrespective of the electricity supply, PHEVs result in greater reductions in WTW energy use and GHG emissions relative to ICEVs for city than highway driving conditions. PHEVs charging from coal facilities only reduce WTW energy use and GHG emissions relative to ICEVs for certain favorable driving conditions. The study results have implications for environmentally beneficial PHEV adoption and usage patterns.

Life cycle Greenhouse gas emissions of current Oil Sands Technologies: surface mining and in situ applications.

Life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with two major recovery and extraction processes currently utilized in Alberta's oil sands, surface mining and in situ, are quantified. Process modules are developed and integrated into a life cycle model-GHOST (GreenHouse gas emissions of current Oil Sands Technologies) developed in prior work. Recovery and extraction of bitumen through surface mining and in situ processes result in 3-9 and 9-16 g CO(2)eq/MJ bitumen, respectively; upgrading emissions are an additional 6-17 g CO(2)eq/MJ synthetic crude oil (SCO) (all results are on a HHV basis). Although a high degree of variability exists in well-to-wheel emissions due to differences in technologies employed, operating conditions, and product characteristics, the surface mining dilbit and the in situ SCO pathways have the lowest and highest emissions, 88 and 120 g CO(2)eq/MJ reformulated gasoline. Through the use of improved data obtained from operating oil sands projects, we present ranges of emissions that overlap with emissions in literature for conventional crude oil. An increased focus is recommended in policy discussions on understanding interproject variability of emissions of both oil sands and conventional crudes, as this has not been adequately represented in previous studies.

Potentials for sustainable transportation in cities to alleviate climate change impacts.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is an important social goal to mitigate climate change. A common mitigation paradigm is to consider strategy "wedges" that can be applied to different activities to achieve desired GHG reductions. In this policy analysis piece, we consider a wide range of possible strategies to reduce light-duty vehicle GHG emissions, including fuel and vehicle options, low carbon and renewable power, travel demand management and land use changes. We conclude that no one strategy will be sufficient to meet GHG emissions reduction goals to avoid climate change. However, many of these changes have positive combinatorial effects, so the best strategy is to pursue combinations of transportation GHG reduction strategies to meet reduction goals. Agencies need to broaden their agendas to incorporate such combination in their planning.

Understanding variability in petroleum jet fuel life cycle greenhouse gas emissions to inform aviation decarbonization.

A pressing challenge facing the aviation industry is to aggressively reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the face of increasing demand for aviation fuels. Climate goals such as carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards require continuous improvements in technology, operations, infrastructure, and most importantly, reductions in aviation fuel life cycle emissions. The Carbon Offsetting Scheme for International Aviation of the International Civil Aviation Organization provides a global market-based measure to group all possible emissions reduction measures into a joint program. Using a bottom-up, engineering-based modeling approach, this study provides the first estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum jet fuel on regional and global scales. Here we show that not all petroleum jet fuels are the same as the country-level life cycle emissions of petroleum jet fuels range from 81.1 to 94.8 gCO2e MJ-1, with a global volume-weighted average of 88.7 gCO2e MJ-1. These findings provide a high-resolution baseline against which sustainable aviation fuel and other emissions reduction opportunities can be prioritized to achieve greater emissions reductions faster.