Hurricanes pose a substantial risk to New England forest carbon stocks.

Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate climate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts of carbon. New England is one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States (>75% forested by land area), and forest carbon is a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a major source of uncertainty and risk for policies relying on forest carbon for climate mitigation, especially as climate change is projected to alter the intensity and extent of hurricanes. To date, most research into disturbance impacts on forest carbon stocks has focused on fire. Here, we show that a single hurricane in the region can down between 121 and 250 MMTCO2e or 4.6%-9.4% of the total aboveground forest carbon, much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests (16 MMTCO2e year-1). However, emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted. Reconstructing hurricanes with the HURRECON and EXPOS models across a range of historical and projected wind speeds, we find that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase in the extent of high-severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased wind speed also leads to unprecedented geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions traditionally less affected by hurricanes. Given that a single hurricane can emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestered by forests in New England, the status of these forests as a durable carbon sink is uncertain. Understanding the risks to forest carbon stocks from disturbances is necessary for decision-makers relying on forests as a NCS.

Logging response alters trajectories of reorganization after loss of a foundation tree species.

Forest insect outbreaks cause large changes in ecosystem structure, composition, and function. Humans often respond to insect outbreaks by conducting salvage logging, which can amplify the immediate effects, but it is unclear whether logging will result in lasting differences in forest structure and dynamics when compared with forests affected only by insect outbreaks. We used 15 years of data from an experimental removal of Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. (Eastern hemlock), a foundation tree species within eastern North American forests, and contrasted the rate, magnitude, and persistence of response trajectories between girdling (emulating mortality from insect outbreak) and timber harvest treatments. Girdling and logging were equally likely to lead to large changes in forest structure and dynamics, but logging resulted in faster rates of change. Understory light increases and community composition changes were larger and more rapid in the logged plots. Tree seedling and understory vegetation abundance increased more in the girdled plots; this likely occurred because seedlings grew rapidly into the sapling- and tree-size classes after logging and quickly shaded out plants on the forest floor. Downed deadwood pools increased more after logging but standing deadwood pools increased dramatically after girdling. Understory light levels remained elevated for a longer time after girdling. Perhaps because the window of opportunity for understory species to establish was longer in the girdled plots, total species richness increased more in the girdled than logged plots. Despite the potential for greater diversity in the girdled plots, Betula lenta L. (black birch) was the most abundant tree species recruited into the sapling- and tree-size classes in both the girdled and logged plots and is poised to dominate the new forest canopy. The largest difference between the girdling and logging treatments-deadwood structure and quantity-will persist and continue to bolster aboveground carbon storage and structural and habitat diversity in the girdled plots. Human responses to insect outbreaks hasten forest reorganization and remove structural resources that may further alter forest response to ongoing climate stress and future disturbances.