Ceftriaxone efficacy for Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease in the hollow fiber and translation to sustained sputum culture conversion in patients.

BACKGROUND: Only 35.6%-50.8% of patients with Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) pulmonary disease achieve sustained sputum culture conversion (SSCC) on treatment with the azithromycin-ethambutol-rifabutin standard of care (SOC). We tested the efficacy of ceftriaxone, a ß-lactam with a lung penetration ratio of 12.18-fold. METHODS: We mimicked lung concentration-time profiles of seven ceftriaxone once-daily doses for 28 days in the hollow fiber system model of intracellular MAC (HFS- MAC). Monte Carlo experiments were used for dose selection.We also compared the once-daily ceftriaxone monotherapy to three-drug SOC against five MAC clinical isolates in HFS-MAC using γ (kill)-slopes. Results were translated to SSCC rates. RESULTS: Ceftriaxone killed 1.02-3.82 log10 cfu/mL in dose-response studies. Ceftriaxone 2G once-daily was identified as the optimal dose. Ceftriaxone killed all five strains below day 0 versus 2/5 for SOC. The median γ (95% confidence interval) was 0.49(0.47-0.52) log10 cfu/mL/day for ceftriaxone and 0.38(0.34-0.43) log10 cfu/mL/day for SOC. In patients, the SOC was predicted to achieve SSCC rates of 39.3%(36%-42%) at 6 months (similar to meta-analyses results). The SOC SSCC was 50% at 8.18(3.64-27.66) months versus 3.58(2.20-7.23) months for ceftriaxone. Thus, ceftriaxone shortened time-to-SSCC 2.35-fold compared to SOC. CONCLUSION: Ceftriaxone is a promising agent for creation of short-course chemotherapy.

Nouveau short-course therapy and morphism mapping for clinical pulmonary Mycobacterium kansasii.

Standard therapy [isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol], with or without a macrolide, for pulmonary Mycobacterium kansasii lasts more than a year. Therefore, shorter treatment duration regimens are required. We used data from 32 Taiwanese patients treated with standard therapy who were followed using repetitive sampling-based sputum Mkn time-to-positivity in liquid cultures to calculate kill slopes [γ] based on ordinary differential equations and time-to-extinction of each patient's bacterial burden. The γ was 0.18 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.16-0.20] log10 CFU/mL/day on standard therapy. Next, we identified Mkn time-to-extinction in the hollow fiber system model of pulmonary M. kansasii disease [HFS-Mkn] treated with standard therapy, which was a γ of 0.60 [95% CI: 0.45-0.69) log10 CFU/mL/day. The γs and time-to-extinctions between the two datasets formed structure-preserving maps based on category theory: thus, we could map them from one to the other using morphisms. This mapping identified a multistep non-linear transformation-factor for time-to-extinction from HFS-Mkn to patients. Next, a head-to-head study in the HFS-Mkn identified median time-to-extinction for standard therapy of 38.7 [95% CI: 29.1-53.2) days, isoniazid-rifampin-ethambutol-moxifloxacin of 21.7 [95% CI: 19.1-25) days, isoniazid-rifampin-moxifloxacin of 22 [96% CI: 20.1-24.5) days, and rifampin-moxifloxacin-tedizolid of 20.7 [95% CI:18.5-29) days. Our transformation-factor based translation predicted the proportion of patients of 90.7 [88.74-92.35)% achieving cure with standard therapy at 12 months, and 6-months cure rates of 99.8 [95% CI: 99.27-99.95)% for isoniazid-rifampin-ethambutol-moxifloxacin, 92.2 [90.37-93.71)% for isoniazid-rifampin-moxifloxacin, and 99.9 [99.44-99.99)% for rifampin-moxifloxacin-tedizolid. Thus, rifampin-moxifloxacin-tedizolid and isoniazid-rifampin-ethambutol-moxifloxacin are predicted to be short-course chemotherapy regimens for pulmonary M. kansasii disease.

Duration of pretomanid/moxifloxacin/pyrazinamide therapy compared with standard therapy based on time-to-extinction mathematics.

OBJECTIVES: Animal models have suggested that the combination of pretomanid with pyrazinamide and moxifloxacin (PaMZ) may shorten TB therapy duration to 3-4 months. Here, we tested that in the hollow-fibre system model of TB (HFS-TB). METHODS: A series of HFS-TB experiments were performed to compare the kill rates of the PaMZ regimen with the standard three-drug combination therapy. HFS-TB experiments were performed with bacilli in log-phase growth treated for 28 days, intracellular bacilli treated daily for 28 days and semi-dormant Mycobacterium tuberculosis treated with daily therapy for 56 days for sterilizing effect. Next, time-to-extinction equations were employed, followed by morphism transformation and Latin hypercube sampling, to determine the proportion of patients who achieved a time to extinction of 3, 4 or 6 months with each regimen. RESULTS: Using linear regression, the HFS-TB sterilizing effect rates of the PaMZ regimen versus the standard-therapy regimen during the 56 days were 0.18 (95% credible interval=0.13-0.23) versus 0.15 (95% credible interval=0.08-0.21) log10 cfu/mL/day, compared with 0.16 (95% credible interval=0.13-0.18) versus 0.11 (95% credible interval=0.09-0.13) log10 cfu/mL/day in the Phase II clinical trial, respectively. Using time-to-extinction and Latin hypercube sampling modelling, the expected percentages of patients in which the PaMZ regimen would achieve sterilization were 40.37% (95% credible interval=39.1-41.34) and 72.30% (95% credible interval=71.41-73.17) at 3 and 4 months duration of therapy, respectively, versus 93.67% (95% credible interval=93.18-94.13) at 6 months for standard therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The kill rates of the PaMZ regimen were predicted to be insufficient to achieve cure in less than 6 months in most patients.

Spatial Network Mapping of Pulmonary Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Cavities Using RNA Sequencing.

Rationale: There is poor understanding about protective immunity and the pathogenesis of cavitation in patients with tuberculosis.Objectives: To map pathophysiological pathways at anatomically distinct positions within the human tuberculosis cavity.Methods: Biopsies were obtained from eight predetermined locations within lung cavities of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis undergoing therapeutic surgical resection (n = 14) and healthy lung tissue from control subjects without tuberculosis (n = 10). RNA sequencing, immunohistochemistry, and bacterial load determination were performed at each cavity position. Differentially expressed genes were normalized to control subjects without tuberculosis, and ontologically mapped to identify a spatially compartmentalized pathophysiological map of the cavity. In silico perturbation using a novel distance-dependent dynamical sink model was used to investigate interactions between immune networks and bacterial burden, and to integrate these identified pathways.Measurements and Main Results: The median (range) lung cavity volume on positron emission tomography/computed tomography scans was 50 cm3 (15-389 cm3). RNA sequence reads (31% splice variants) mapped to 19,049 annotated human genes. Multiple proinflammatory pathways were upregulated in the cavity wall, whereas a downregulation "sink" in the central caseum-fluid interface characterized 53% of pathways including neuroendocrine signaling, calcium signaling, triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1, reactive oxygen and nitrogen species production, retinoic acid-mediated apoptosis, and RIG-I-like receptor signaling. The mathematical model demonstrated that neuroendocrine, protein kinase C-θ, and triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 pathways, and macrophage and neutrophil numbers, had the highest correlation with bacterial burden (r > 0.6), whereas T-helper effector systems did not.Conclusions: These data provide novel insights into host immunity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis-related cavitation. The pathways defined may serve as useful targets for the design of host-directed therapies, and transmission prevention interventions.

Once-a-week tigecycline for the treatment of drug-resistant TB.

BACKGROUND: MDR-TB and XDR-TB have poor outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To examine the efficacy of tigecycline monotherapy in the hollow fibre system model of TB. METHODS: We performed pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic studies using tigecycline human-like concentration-time profiles in the hollow fibre system model of TB in five separate experiments using Mycobacterium tuberculosis in log-phase growth or as semi-dormant or intracellular bacilli, as monotherapy. We also compared efficacy with the isoniazid/rifampicin/pyrazinamide combination (standard therapy). We then applied extinction mathematics, morphisms and Latin hypercube sampling to identify duration of therapy with tigecycline monotherapy. RESULTS: The median tigecycline MIC for 30 M. tuberculosis clinical and laboratory isolates (67% MDR/XDR) was 2 mg/L. Tigecycline monotherapy was highly effective in killing M. tuberculosis in log-phase-growth and semi-dormant and intracellular M. tuberculosis. Once-a-week dosing had the same efficacy as daily therapy for the same cumulative dose; thus, tigecycline efficacy was linked to the AUC0-24/MIC ratio. Tigecycline replacement by daily minocycline after 4 weeks of therapy was effective in sterilizing bacilli. The AUC0-24/MIC ratio associated with optimal kill was 42.3. Tigecycline monotherapy had a maximum sterilizing effect (day 0 minus day 28) of 3.06 ±âŸ0.20 log10 cfu/mL (r2 = 0.92) compared with 3.92 ±âŸ0.45 log10 cfu/mL (r2 = 0.80) with optimized standard therapy. In our modelling, at a tigecycline monotherapy duration of 12 months, the proportion of patients with XDR-TB who reached bacterial population extinction was 64.51%. CONCLUSIONS: Tigecycline could cure patients with XDR-TB or MDR-TB who have failed recommended therapy. Once-a-week tigecycline could also replace second-line injectables in MDR-TB regimens.

Minocycline treatment for pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex disease based on pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and Bayesian framework mathematical models.

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to identify the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic parameters of minocycline in the hollow-fibre system (HFS) model of pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) and to identify the optimal clinical dose. METHODS: Minocycline MICs for 55 MAC clinical isolates from the Netherlands were determined. We also co-incubated primary isolated macrophages infected with MAC with minocycline. Next, we performed a 28 day HFS-MAC model dose-response study in which we mimicked pulmonary concentration-time profiles achieved in patients. The HFS-MAC model was sampled at intervals to determine the minocycline pharmacokinetics and MAC burden. We identified the AUC0-24/MIC ratios associated with 1.0 log10 cfu/mL kill below day 0 (stasis), defined as a bactericidal effect. We then performed 10000 Monte Carlo experiments to identify the optimal dose for a bactericidal effect in patients. RESULTS: The MIC for 50% and 90% of cumulative clinical isolates was 8 and 64 mg/L, respectively. Minocycline decreased MAC bacterial burden below stasis in primary isolated macrophages. In the HFS-MAC model, minocycline achieved a microbial kill of 3.6 log10 cfu/mL below stasis. The AUC0-24/MIC exposure associated with a bactericidal effect was 59. Monte Carlo experiments identified a minocycline susceptibility MIC breakpoint of 16 mg/L. At this proposed breakpoint, the clinical dose of 200 mg/day achieved the bactericidal effect exposure target in ∼50% of patients, while 400 mg/day achieved this in 73.6% of patients, in Monte Carlo experiments. CONCLUSIONS: Minocycline at a dose of 400 mg/day is expected to be bactericidal. We propose a clinical trial for validation.

Deciphering the virulence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis isolates in animal macrophages using mathematical models.

Understanding why pathogenic Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) isolates cause disparate disease outcomes with differing magnitudes of severity is important in designing and implementing new control strategies. We applied a suite of mathematical models: i) general linear, ii) and neurofuzzy logic, to explain how the host of origin of several Map isolates, Map genotype, host, macrophage-based in vitro model and time post-infection contributed to the infection. A logistic growth ordinary differential equation (ODE) model was applied to estimate within macrophage growth rates for the different Map isolates. The models revealed different susceptibilities of bovine and ovine macrophages to Map infection and confirmed distinct virulence profiles for the isolates, judged by their ability to grow within macrophages. Ovine macrophages were able to internalize Map isolates more efficiently than bovine macrophages. While bovine macrophages were able to internalize Map isolates from cattle with more efficiency, ovine macrophages were more efficient in internalizing ovine isolates. Overall, Map isolates from goat and sheep grew minimally within macrophages or did not grow but were able to persist by maintaining its initial population. In contrast, the ability of the bovine isolates and the non-domesticated animal isolates to grow to higher CFU numbers within macrophages suggests that these isolates are more virulent than the sheep and goat isolates, or that these isolates are better adapted to infect domestic ruminants. Overall, our study confirms the different virulence levels for the Map isolates and susceptibility profiles of host macrophages, which is crucial in increasing our understanding of Map infection.

Drug-Penetration Gradients Associated with Acquired Drug Resistance in Patients with Tuberculosis.

RATIONALE: Acquired resistance is an important driver of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (TB), even with good treatment adherence. However, exactly what initiates the resistance and how it arises remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To identify the relationship between drug concentrations and drug susceptibility readouts (minimum inhibitory concentrations [MICs]) in the TB cavity. METHODS: We recruited patients with medically incurable TB who were undergoing therapeutic lung resection while on treatment with a cocktail of second-line anti-TB drugs. On the day of surgery, antibiotic concentrations were measured in the blood and at seven prespecified biopsy sites within each cavity. Mycobacterium tuberculosis was grown from each biopsy site, MICs of each drug identified, and whole-genome sequencing performed. Spearman correlation coefficients between drug concentration and MIC were calculated. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Fourteen patients treated for a median of 13 months (range, 5-31 mo) were recruited. MICs and drug resistance-associated single-nucleotide variants differed between the different geospatial locations within each cavity, and with pretreatment and serial sputum isolates, consistent with ongoing acquisition of resistance. However, pretreatment sputum MIC had an accuracy of only 49.48% in predicting cavitary MICs. There were large concentration-distance gradients for each antibiotic. The location-specific concentrations inversely correlated with MICs (P < 0.05) and therefore acquired resistance. Moreover, pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic exposures known to amplify drug-resistant subpopulations were encountered in all positions. CONCLUSIONS: These data inform interventional strategies relevant to drug delivery, dosing, and diagnostics to prevent the development of acquired resistance. The role of high intracavitary penetration as a biomarker of antibiotic efficacy, when assessing new regimens, requires clarification.

Efficacy Versus Hepatotoxicity of High-dose Rifampin, Pyrazinamide, and Moxifloxacin to Shorten Tuberculosis Therapy Duration: There Is Still Fight in the Old Warriors Yet!

Background: One approach that could increase the efficacy and reduce the duration of antituberculosis therapy is pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics-based optimization of doses. However, this could increase toxicity. Methods: We mimicked the concentration-time profiles achieved by human equivalent doses of moxifloxacin 800 mg/day, rifampin 1800 mg/day, and pyrazinamide 4000 mg/day (high-dose regimen) vs isoniazid 300 mg/day, rifampin 600 mg/day, and pyrazinamide 2000 mg/day (standard therapy) in bactericidal and sterilizing effect studies in the hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis (HFS-TB). In an intracellular Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) HFS-TB experiment, we added a 3-dimensional human organotypic liver to determine potential hepatotoxicity of the high-dose regimen, based on lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). Treatment lasted 28 days and Mtb bacterial burden was based on colony counts. We calculated the time to extinction (TTE) of the Mtb population in the HFS-TB and used morphism-based transformation and Latin hypercube sampling to identify the minimum therapy duration in patients. Results: The kill rate of standard therapy in the bactericidal effect and sterilizing effect experiments were 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], .91-.99) log10 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL/day, and 0.56 (95% CI, .49-.59) log10 CFU/mL/day, respectively. The high-dose regimen's bactericidal and sterilizing effect kill rates were 0.99 (95% CI, .96-.99) log10 CFU/mL/day and 0.72 (95% CI, .56-.79) log10 CFU/mL/day, respectively. The upper confidence bound for TTE in patients was 4.5-5 months for standard therapy vs 3.7 months on the high-dose regimen. There were no differences in LDH concentrations between the 2 regimens at any time point (P > .05). Conclusions: The high-dose regimen may moderately shorten therapy without increased hepatotoxicity compared to standard therapy.

Artificial intelligence-derived 3-Way Concentration-dependent Antagonism of Gatifloxacin, Pyrazinamide, and Rifampicin During Treatment of Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

Background: In the experimental arm of the OFLOTUB trial, gatifloxacin replaced ethambutol in the standard 4-month regimen for drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis. The study included a nested pharmacokinetic (PK) study. We sought to determine if PK variability played a role in patient outcomes. Methods: Patients recruited in the trial were followed for 24 months, and relapse ascertained using spoligotyping. Blood was drawn for drug concentrations on 2 separate days during the first 2 months of therapy, and compartmental PK analyses was performed. Failure to attain sustained sputum culture conversion at the end of treatment, relapse, or death during follow-up defined therapy failure. In addition to standard statistical analyses, we utilized an ensemble of machine-learning methods to identify patterns and predictors of therapy failure from among 27 clinical and laboratory features. Results: Of 126 patients, 95 (75%) had favorable outcomes and 19 (15%) failed therapy, relapsed, or died. Pyrazinamide and rifampicin peak concentrations and area under the concentration-time curves (AUCs) were ranked higher (more important) than gatifloxacin AUCs. The distribution of individual drug concentrations and their ranking varied significantly between South African and West African trial sites; however, drug concentrations still accounted for 31% and 75% of variance of outcomes, respectively. We identified a 3-way antagonistic interaction of pyrazinamide, gatifloxacin, and rifampicin concentrations. These negative interactions disappeared if rifampicin peak concentration was above 7 mg/L. Conclusions: Concentration-dependent antagonism contributed to death, relapse, and therapy failure but was abrogated by high rifampicin concentrations. Therefore, increasing both rifampin and gatifloxacin doses could improve outcomes. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00216385.

Transformation Morphisms and Time-to-Extinction Analysis That Map Therapy Duration From Preclinical Models to Patients With Tuberculosis: Translating From Apples to Oranges.

Background: A major challenge in medicine is translation of preclinical model findings to humans, especially therapy duration. One major example is recent shorter-duration therapy regimen failures in tuberculosis. Methods: We used set theory mapping to develop a computational/modeling framework to map the time it takes to extinguish the Mycobacterium tuberculosis population on chemotherapy from multiple hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis (HFS-TB) experiments to that observed in patients. The predictive accuracy of the derived translation transformations was then tested using data from 108 HFS-TB Rapid Evaluation of Moxifloxacin in Tuberculosis (REMoxTB) units, including 756 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL. Derived transformations, and Latin hypercube sampling-guided simulations were used to predict cure and relapse after 4 and 6 months of therapy. Outcomes were compared to observations, in 1932 patients in the REMoxTB clinical trial. Results: HFS-TB serial bacillary burden and serial sputum data in the derivation dataset formed a structure-preserving map. Bactericidal effect was mapped with a single step transformation, while the sterilizing effect was mapped with a 3-step transformation function. Using the HFS-TB REMoxTB data, we accurately predicted the proportion of patients cured in the 4-month REMoxTB clinical trial. Model-predicted vs clinical trial observations were (i) the ethambutol arm (77.0% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 74.4%-79.6%] vs 77.7% [95% CI, 74.3%-80.9%]) and (ii) the isoniazid arm (76.4% [95% CI, 73.9%-79.0%] vs 79.5% [95% CI, 76.1%-82.5%]). Conclusions: We developed a method to translate duration of therapy outcomes from preclinical models to tuberculosis patients.

Systematic Review and Meta-analyses of the Effect of Chemotherapy on Pulmonary Mycobacterium abscessus Outcomes and Disease Recurrence.

In pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models of pulmonary Mycobacterium abscessus complex, the recommended macrolide-containing combination therapy has poor kill rates. However, clinical outcomes are unknown. We searched the literature for studies published between 1990 and 2017 that reported microbial outcomes in patients treated for pulmonary M. abscessus disease. A good outcome was defined as sustained sputum culture conversion (SSCC) without relapse. Random effects models were used to pool studies and estimate proportions of patients with good outcomes. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed. Sensitivity analyses and metaregression were used to assess the robustness of findings. In 19 studies of 1,533 patients, combination therapy was administered to 508 patients with M. abscessus subsp. abscessus, 204 with M. abscessus subsp. massiliense, and 301 with M. abscessus with no subspecies specified. Macrolide-containing regimens achieved SSCC in only 77/233 (34%) new M. abscessus subsp. abscessus patients versus 117/141 (54%) M. abscessus subsp. massiliense patients (OR, 0.108 [95% CI, 0.066 to 0.181]). In refractory disease, SSCC was achieved in 20% (95% CI, 7 to 36%) of patients, which was not significantly different across subspecies. The estimated recurrent rates per month were 1.835% (range, 1.667 to 3.196%) for M. abscessus subsp. abscessus versus 0.683% (range, 0.229 to 1.136%) for M. abscessus subsp. massiliense (OR, 6.189 [95% CI, 2.896 to 13.650]). The proportion of patients with good outcomes was 52/223 (23%) with M. abscessus subsp. abscessus versus 118/141 (84%) with M. abscessus subsp. massiliense disease (OR, 0.059 [95% CI, 0.034 to 0.101]). M. abscessus subsp. abscessus pulmonary disease outcomes with the currently recommended regimens are atrocious, with outcomes similar to those for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis. Therapeutically, the concept of nontuberculous mycobacteria is misguided. There is an urgent need to craft entirely new treatment regimens.

Linezolid Dose That Maximizes Sterilizing Effect While Minimizing Toxicity and Resistance Emergence for Tuberculosis.

Linezolid has an excellent sterilizing effect in tuberculosis patients but high adverse event rates. The dose that would maximize efficacy and minimize toxicity is unknown. We performed linezolid dose-effect and dose-scheduling studies in the hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis (HFS-TB) for sterilizing effect. HFS-TB units were treated with several doses to mimic human-like linezolid intrapulmonary pharmacokinetics and repetitively sampled for drug concentration, total bacterial burden, linezolid-resistant subpopulations, and RNA sequencing over 2 months. Linezolid-resistant isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing. The expression of genes encoding efflux pumps in the first 1 to 2 weeks revealed the same exposure-response patterns as the linezolid-resistant subpopulation. Linezolid-resistant isolates from the 2nd month of therapy revealed mutations in several efflux pump/transporter genes and a LuxR-family transcriptional regulator. Linezolid sterilizing effect was linked to the ratio of unbound 0- to 24-h area under the concentration-time curve (AUC0-24) to MIC. Optimal microbial kill was achieved at an AUC0-24/MIC ratio of 119. The optimal sterilizing effect dose for clinical use was identified using Monte Carlo simulations. Clinical doses of 300 and 600 mg/day (or double the dose every other day) achieved this target in 87% and >99% of 10,000 patients, respectively. The susceptibility breakpoint identified was 2 mg/liter. The simulations identified that a 300-mg/day dose did not achieve AUC0-24s associated with linezolid toxicity, while 600 mg/day achieved those AUC0-24s in <20% of subjects. The linezolid dose of 300 mg/day performed well and should be compared to 600 mg/day or 1,200 mg every other day in clinical trials.

Competition for antigen between Th1 and Th2 responses determines the timing of the immune response switch during Mycobaterium avium subspecies paratuberulosis infection in ruminants.

Johne's disease (JD), a persistent and slow progressing infection of ruminants such as cows and sheep, is caused by slow replicating bacilli Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infecting macrophages in the gut. Infected animals initially mount a cell-mediated CD4 T cell response against MAP which is characterized by the production of interferon gamma (Th1 response). Over time, Th1 response diminishes in most animals and antibody response to MAP antigens becomes dominant (Th2 response). The switch from Th1 to Th2 response occurs concomitantly with disease progression and shedding of the bacteria in feces. Mechanisms controlling this Th1/Th2 switch remain poorly understood. Because Th1 and Th2 responses are known to cross-inhibit each other, it is unclear why initially strong Th1 response is lost over time. Using a novel mathematical model of the immune response to MAP infection we show that the ability of extracellular bacteria to persist outside of macrophages naturally leads to switch of the cellular response to antibody production. Several additional mechanisms may also contribute to the timing of the Th1/Th2 switch including the rate of proliferation of Th1/Th2 responses at the site of infection, efficiency at which immune responses cross-inhibit each other, and the rate at which Th1 response becomes exhausted over time. Our basic model reasonably well explains four different kinetic patterns of the Th1/Th2 responses in MAP-infected sheep by variability in the initial bacterial dose and the efficiency of the MAP-specific T cell responses. Taken together, our novel mathematical model identifies factors of bacterial and host origin that drive kinetics of the immune response to MAP and provides the basis for testing the impact of vaccination or early treatment on the duration of infection.

A mathematical representation of the development of Mycobacterium tuberculosis active, latent and dormant stages.

The majority of individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) bacilli develop latent infection. Mtb becomes dormant and phenotypically drug resistant when it encounters multiple stresses within the host, and expresses a set of genes, known as the dormancy regulon, in vivo. These genes are expressed in vitro in response to nitric oxide (NO), hypoxia (oxygen deprivation), and nutrient starvation. The occurrence and reactivation of latent tuberculosis (TB) is not clearly understood. The ability of the pathogen to enter and exit from different states is associated with its ability to cause persistent infection. During infection it is not known whether the organism is in a persistent slow replicating state or a dormant non-replicating state, with the latter ultimately causing a latent infection with the potential to reactivate to active disease. We collected gene expression data for Mtb bacilli under different stress conditions that simulate latency or dormancy. Time course experiments were selected and differentially expressed gene profiles were determined at each time point. A mathematical model was then developed to show the dynamics of Mtb latency based on the profile of differentially expressed genes. Analysis of the time course data show the dynamics of latency occurrence in vitro and the mathematical model reveals all possible scenarios of Mtb latency development with respect to the different conditions that may be produced by the immune response in vivo. The mathematical model provides a biological explanation of how Mtb latency occurs based on observed gene expression changes in in vitro latency models.

Effects of small molecule-induced dimerization on the programmed death ligand 1 protein life cycle.

The programmed death 1 (PD-1)/programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) checkpoint blockade is central to Immuno-Oncology based therapies, and alternatives to antibody blockers of this interaction are an active area of research due to antibody related toxicities. Recently, small molecule compounds that induce PD-L1 dimerization and occlusion of PD-1 binding site have been identified and developed for clinical trials. This mechanism invokes an oligomeric state of PD-L1 not observed in cells previously, as PD-L1 is generally believed to function as a monomer. Therefore, understanding the cellular lifecycle of the induced PD-L1 dimer is of keen interest. Our report describes a moderate but consistent increase in the PD-L1 rate of degradation observed upon protein dimerization as compared to the monomer counterpart. This subtle change, while not resolved by measuring total PD-L1 cellular levels by western blotting, triggered investigations of the overall protein distribution across various cellular compartments. We show that PD-L1 dimerization does not lead to rapid internalization of neither transfected nor endogenously expressed protein forms. Instead, evidence is presented that dimerization results in retention of PD-L1 intracellularly, which concomitantly correlates with its reduction on the cell surface. Therefore, the obtained data for the first time points to the ability of small molecules to induce dimerization of the newly synthesized PD-L1 in addition to the protein already present on the plasma membrane. Overall, this work serves to improve our understanding of this important target on a molecular level in order to guide advances in drug development.

Bacterial load slopes represent biomarkers of tuberculosis therapy success, failure, and relapse.

There is an urgent need to discover biomarkers that are predictive of long-term TB treatment outcomes, since treatment is expense and prolonged to document relapse. We used mathematical modeling and machine learning to characterize a predictive biomarker for TB treatment outcomes. We computed bacterial kill rates, γf for fast- and γs for slow/non-replicating bacteria, using patient sputum data to determine treatment duration by computing time-to-extinction of all bacterial subpopulations. We then derived a γs-slope-based rule using first 8 weeks sputum data, that demonstrated a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 89% at predicting relapse-free cure for 2, 3, 4, and 6 months TB regimens. In comparison, current methods (two-month sputum culture conversion and the Extended-EBA) methods performed poorly, with sensitivities less than 34%. These biomarkers will accelerate evaluation of novel TB regimens, aid better clinical trial designs and will allow personalization of therapy duration in routine treatment programs.

Dynamic imaging in patients with tuberculosis reveals heterogeneous drug exposures in pulmonary lesions.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent, requiring at least 6 months of multidrug treatment to achieve cure1. However, the lack of reliable data on antimicrobial pharmacokinetics (PK) at infection sites hinders efforts to optimize antimicrobial dosing and shorten TB treatments2. In this study, we applied a new tool to perform unbiased, noninvasive and multicompartment measurements of antimicrobial concentration-time profiles in humans3. Newly identified patients with rifampin-susceptible pulmonary TB were enrolled in a first-in-human study4 using dynamic [11C]rifampin (administered as a microdose) positron emission tomography (PET) and computed tomography (CT). [11C]rifampin PET-CT was safe and demonstrated spatially compartmentalized rifampin exposures in pathologically distinct TB lesions within the same patients, with low cavity wall rifampin exposures. Repeat PET-CT measurements demonstrated independent temporal evolution of rifampin exposure trajectories in different lesions within the same patients. Similar findings were recapitulated by PET-CT in experimentally infected rabbits with cavitary TB and confirmed using postmortem mass spectrometry. Integrated modeling of the PET-captured concentration-time profiles in hollow-fiber bacterial kill curve experiments provided estimates on the rifampin dosing required to achieve cure in 4 months. These data, capturing the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of intralesional drug PK, have major implications for antimicrobial drug development.

A trade-off between dry season survival longevity and wet season high net reproduction can explain the persistence of Anopheles mosquitoes.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a leading cause of death in tropical regions of the world. Despite efforts to reduce transmission, rebounds associated with the persistence of malaria vectors have remained a major impediment to local elimination. One area that remains poorly understood is how Anopheles populations survive long dry seasons to re-emerge following the onset of the rains. METHODS: We developed a suite of mathematical models to explore the impact of different dry-season mosquito survival strategies on the dynamics of vector populations. We fitted these models to an Anopheles population data set from Mali to estimate the model parameters and evaluate whether incorporating aestivation improved the fit of the model to the observed seasonal dynamics. We used the fitted models to explore the impact of intervention strategies that target aestivating mosquitoes in addition to targeting active mosquitoes and larvae. RESULTS: Including aestivation in the model significantly improved our ability to reproduce the observed seasonal dynamics of vector populations as judged by the deviance information criterion (DIC). Furthermore, such a model resulted in more biologically plausible active mosquito survival times (for A. coluzzii median wet season survival time of 10.9 days, 95% credible interval (CrI): 10.0-14.5 days in a model with aestivation versus 38.1 days, 95% CrI: 35.8-42.5 days in a model without aestivation; similar patterns were observed for A. arabiensis). Aestivation also generated enhanced persistence of the vector population over a wider range of both survival times and fecundity levels. Adding vector control interventions that target the aestivating mosquito population is shown to have the potential to enhance the impact of existing vector control. CONCLUSIONS: Dry season survival attributes appear to drive vector population persistence and therefore have implications for vector control. Further research is therefore needed to better understand these mechanisms and to evaluate the additional benefit of vector control strategies that specifically target dormant mosquitoes.

Inferring biomarkers for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection and disease progression in cattle using experimental data.

Available diagnostic assays for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) have poor sensitivities and cannot detect early stages of infection, therefore, there is need to find new diagnostic markers for early infection detection and disease stages. We analyzed longitudinal IFN-γ, ELISA-antibody and fecal shedding experimental sensitivity scores for MAP infection detection and disease progression. We used both statistical methods and dynamic mathematical models to (i) evaluate the empirical assays (ii) infer and explain biological mechanisms that affect the time evolution of the biomarkers, and (iii) predict disease stages of 57 animals that were naturally infected with MAP. This analysis confirms that the fecal test is the best marker for disease progression and illustrates that Th1/Th2 (IFN-γ/ELISA antibodies) assays are important for infection detection, but cannot reliably predict persistent infections. Our results show that the theoretical simulated macrophage-based assay is a potential good diagnostic marker for MAP persistent infections and predictor of disease specific stages. We therefore recommend specifically designed experiments to test the use of a based assay in the diagnosis of MAP infections.