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BACKGROUND: Farnesol (FOL) prevents the onset of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a murine model of multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: We examined the transcriptomic profile of the brains of EAE mice treated with daily oral FOL using next-generation sequencing (RNA-seq). METHODS: Transcriptomics from whole brains of treated and untreated EAE mice at the peak of EAE was performed. RESULTS: EAE-induced mice, compared to naïve, healthy mice, overall showed increased expression in pathways for immune response, as well as an increased cytokine signaling pathway, with downregulation of cellular stress proteins. FOL downregulates pro-inflammatory pathways and attenuates the immune response in EAE. FOL downregulated the expression of genes involved in misfolded protein response, MAPK activation/signaling, and pro-inflammatory response. CONCLUSION: This study provides insight into the molecular impact of FOL in the brain and identifies potential therapeutic targets of the isoprenoid pathway in MS patients.
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Encefalomielite Autoimune Experimental , Esclerose Múltipla , Humanos , Camundongos , Animais , Farneseno Álcool/farmacologia , Transcriptoma , Encéfalo/metabolismo , Camundongos Endogâmicos C57BLRESUMO
White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging infectious disease that has resulted in severe declines of its hibernating bat hosts in North America. The ongoing epidemic of white-nose syndrome is a multi-scale phenomenon becau.se it causes hibernaculum-level extirpations, while simultaneously spreading over larger spatial scales. We investigate a neglected topic in ecological epidemiology: how local pathogen-driven extirpations impact large-scale pathogen spread. Previous studies have identified risk factors for propagation of WNS over hibernaculum and landscape scales but none of these have tested the hypothesis that separation of spatial scales and disease-induced mortality at the hibernaculum level might slow or halt its spread. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mechanistic multi-scale model parameterized using white-nose syndrome.county and site incidence data that connects hibernaculum-level susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemiology to the county-scale contagion process. Our key result is that hibernaculum-level extirpations will not inhibit county-scale spread of WNS. We show that over 80% of counties of the contiguous USA are likely to become infected before the current epidemic is over and that geometry of habitat connectivity is such that host refuges are exceedingly rare. The macroscale spatiotemporal infection pattern that emerges from local SIR epidemiological processes falls within a narrow spectrum of possible outcomes, suggesting that recolonization, rescue effects, and multi-host complexities at local scales are not important to forward propagation of WNS at large spatial scales. If effective control measures are not implemented, precipitous declines in bat populations are likely, particularly in cave-dense regions that constitute the main geographic corridors of the USA, a serious concern for bat conservation.
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Quirópteros/microbiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/veterinária , Epidemias , Micoses/microbiologia , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Biológicos , Nariz/microbiologia , Estações do Ano , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
The emergence and spread of mutant pathogens that evade the effects of prophylactic interventions, including vaccines, threatens our ability to control infectious diseases globally. Imperfect vaccines (e.g. those used against influenza), while not providing life-long immunity, confer protection by reducing a range of pathogen life-history characteristics; conversely, mutant pathogens can gain an advantage by restoring the same range of traits in vaccinated hosts. Using an SEIR model motivated by equine influenza, we investigate the evolutionary consequences of alternative types of imperfect vaccination, by comparing the spread rate of three types of mutant pathogens, in response to three types of vaccines. All mutant types spread faster in response to a transmission-blocking vaccine, relative to vaccines that reduce the proportion of exposed vaccinated individuals becoming infectious, and to vaccines that reduce the length of the infectious period; this difference increases with increasing vaccine efficacy. We interpret our results using the first published Price equation formulation for an SEIR model, and find that our main result is explained by the effects of vaccines on the equilibrium host distribution across epidemiological classes. In particular, the proportion of vaccinated infectious individuals among all exposed and infectious hosts, which is relatively higher in the transmission-blocking vaccine scenario, is important in explaining the faster spread of mutant strains in response to that vaccine. Our work illustrates the connection between epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics, and the need to incorporate both in order to explain and interpret findings of complicated infectious disease dynamics.
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Evolução Biológica , Doenças dos Cavalos/virologia , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N8/imunologia , Modelos Imunológicos , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/veterinária , Vacinas Virais/imunologia , Animais , Número Básico de Reprodução/veterinária , Doenças dos Cavalos/imunologia , Doenças dos Cavalos/prevenção & controle , Cavalos , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N8/genética , Mutação/imunologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/imunologia , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Orthomyxoviridae/virologia , Vacinação/veterinária , Vacinas Virais/normasRESUMO
Vector-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging in urban environments throughout the world, presenting an increasing challenge to human health and a major obstacle to development. Currently, more than half of the global population is concentrated in urban environments, which are highly heterogeneous in the extent, degree, and distribution of environmental modifications. Because the prevalence of vector-borne pathogens is so closely coupled to the ecologies of vector and host species, this heterogeneity has the potential to significantly alter the dynamical systems through which pathogens propagate, and also thereby affect the epidemiological patterns of disease at multiple spatial scales. One such pattern is the speed of spread. Whereas standard models hold that pathogens spread as waves with constant or increasing speed, we hypothesized that heterogeneity in urban environments would cause decelerating travelling waves in incipient epidemics. To test this hypothesis, we analysed data on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City (NYC), the 1999 epicentre of the North American pandemic, during annual epizootics from 2000-2008. These data show evidence of deceleration in all years studied, consistent with our hypothesis. To further explain these patterns, we developed a spatial model for vector-borne disease transmission in a heterogeneous environment. An emergent property of this model is that deceleration occurs only in the vicinity of a critical point. Geostatistical analysis suggests that NYC may be on the edge of this criticality. Together, these analyses provide the first evidence for the endogenous generation of decelerating travelling waves in an emerging infectious disease. Since the reported deceleration results from the heterogeneity of the environment through which the pathogen percolates, our findings suggest that targeting control at key sites could efficiently prevent pathogen spread to remote susceptible areas or even halt epidemics.
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Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia , Surtos de Doenças , Saúde da População Urbana , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/transmissão , Vírus do Nilo Ocidental , Animais , Aves/virologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/transmissão , Biologia Computacional , Bases de Dados Factuais , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Cidade de Nova Iorque/epidemiologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/prevenção & controleRESUMO
Due to climate change-induced alterations of temperature and humidity, the distribution of pathogen-carrying organisms such as ticks may shift. Tick survival is often limited by environmental factors such as dryness, but a predicted hotter and wetter world may allow the expansion of tick ranges. Dermacentor andersoni and D. variabilis ticks are morphologically similar, co-occur throughout the Inland Northwest of Washington State, U.S.A., and both can be injected with pathogenic Rickettsia and Francisella bacteria. Differences in behavior and the potential role of endosymbiotic Rickettsia and Francisella in these ticks are poorly studied. We wanted to measure behavioral and ecological differences between the two species and determine which, if any, Rickettsia and Francisella bacteria - pathogenic or endosymbiotic - they carried. Additionally, we wanted to determine if either tick species may be selected for if the climate in eastern Washington becomes wetter or dryer. We found that D. andersoni is more resistant to desiccation, but both species share similar questing behaviors such as climbing and attraction to bright light. Both also avoid the odor of eucalyptus and DEET but not permethrin. Although both tick species are capable of transmitting pathogenic species of Francisella and Rickettsia, which cause tularemia and Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, respectively, we found primarily non-pathogenic endosymbiotic strains of Francisella and Rickettsia, and only one tick infected with F. tularensis subspecies holarctica.
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Vetores Aracnídeos/fisiologia , Comportamento Animal , Dermacentor/fisiologia , Francisella/isolamento & purificação , Rickettsia/isolamento & purificação , Animais , Vetores Aracnídeos/microbiologia , Dermacentor/microbiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Febre Maculosa das Montanhas Rochosas/transmissão , Simbiose , Tularemia/transmissão , WashingtonRESUMO
Oxytocin treatment reduces signs of long-term emotional stress after exposure to trauma; however, little is known about the potential protective effects of oxytocin treatment on behavioral and physiological changes associated with extreme stress exposure. The objective of this study was to investigate oxytocin treatment as a prophylactic measure against rat signs of fear. Two separate experiments were conducted in which the time of intranasal oxytocin administration differed. Intranasal oxytocin (1.0 µg/kg) was administered 5 min after daily exposure to foot shock in Experiment #1 and 1 h before foot shock in Experiment #2. In Experiment #1, possible massage-evoked oxytocin release (5 min after foot shock) was also investigated. In both experiments, a contextual fear conditioning procedure was employed in which stress was induced via inescapable foot shock (3 days, 40 shocks/day, 8 mA/shock) in a fear conditioning chamber. Male Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 24) were divided into four groups (n = 6, per group) for each experiment. Experiment #1 groups: Control Exp#1 (intranasal saline and no foot shock); Stress Exp#1 (intranasal saline 5 min after foot shock); Massage+Stress Exp#1 (massage-like stroking and intranasal saline 5 min after foot shock); Oxytocin+Stress Exp#1 (intranasal oxytocin 5 min after foot shock). Experiment #2 groups: Control Exp#2 (intranasal saline and no foot shock); Stress Exp#2 (intranasal saline 1 h before foot shock); Oxytocin Exp#2 (intranasal oxytocin and no foot shock); Oxytocin+Stress Exp#2 (intranasal oxytocin 1 h before foot shock). One week after fear conditioning (and other treatments), rats were independently evaluated for behavioral signs of fear. Two weeks after conditioning, physiological signs of fear were also assessed (Experiment #1). Relative to controls, rats treated with intranasal oxytocin 5 min after daily foot shock sessions exhibited significantly less immobility upon re-exposure to the shock chamber and attenuated physiological responses related to fear (e.g., elevated heart rate and blood pressure). Furthermore, intranasal oxytocin treatment given 1 h before daily foot shock sessions significantly decreased immobility and defecation upon re-exposure to the shock chamber, relative to controls. The results of this study suggest that prophylactic intranasal oxytocin, administered contemporaneously with aversive stimuli, mitigates behavioral and physiological responses associated with traumatic stress.
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The use of genetic drive mechanisms to replace native mosquito genotypes with individuals bearing antipathogen transgenes is a potential strategy for repressing insect transmission of human diseases such as malaria and dengue. Antipathogen transgenes have been developed and tested, but efficient gene drive mechanisms are lacking. Here we theoretically assess the feasibility of introducing antipathogen genes into wild Aedes aegypti populations by using a naturally occurring meiotic drive system. We consider the release of males having both a Y-linked meiotic drive gene and an X-linked drive-insensitive response allele to which an antipathogen gene is linked. We use mathematical models and computer simulations to determine how the post-introduction dynamics of the antipathogen gene are affected by specific genetic characteristics of the system. The results show that when the natural population is uniformly sensitive to the meiotic drive gene, the antipathogen gene may be driven close to fixation if the fitness costs of the drive gene, the insensitive response allele, and the antipathogen gene are low. However, when the natural population has a small proportion of an X-linked insensitive response allele or an autosomal gene that strongly reduces the effect of the drive gene, the antipathogen gene does not spread if it has an associated fitness cost. Our modeling results provide a theoretical foundation for further experimental tests.
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Aedes/genética , Alelos , Técnicas de Transferência de Genes , Engenharia Genética/métodos , Insetos Vetores/genética , Doenças Parasitárias/prevenção & controle , Transgenes/genética , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Genética Populacional , Masculino , Meiose , Modelos GenéticosRESUMO
We theoretically investigate the potential for introgressing a desired engineered gene into a pest population by linking the desired gene to DNA constructs that exhibit underdominance properties. Our deterministic model includes two independently segregating engineered constructs that both carry a lethal gene, but suppress each other. Only genotypes containing both or neither construct are viable. Both constructs also carry the desired gene with an independent regulatory mechanism. We examine the minimal number of individuals of an engineered strain that must be released into a natural population to successfully introgress the desired gene. We compare results for strains carrying single and multiple insertions of the constructs. When there are no fitness costs associated with the inserted constructs (when the lethal sequences are not expressed), the number of individuals that must be released decreases as the number of insertions in the genome of the released strain increases. As fitness costs increase, the number of individuals that must be released increases at a greater rate for release strains with more insertions. Under specific conditions this results in the strain with only a single insertion of each construct being the most efficient for introgressing the desired gene. We discuss practical implications of our findings.
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Engenharia Genética/métodos , Animais , Animais Geneticamente Modificados , Simulação por Computador , DNA/metabolismo , Ligação Genética , Genoma , Genótipo , Controle de Insetos , Modelos Genéticos , Controle Biológico de Vetores , TransgenesRESUMO
Engineered underdominance (EU), meiotic drive (MD) and Wolbachia have been proposed as mechanisms for driving anti-pathogen transgenes into natural populations of insect vectors of human diseases. EU can drive transgenes to high and stable frequencies but requires the release of sizeable numbers of engineered insects. MD and Wolbachia either cannot maintain high frequencies of transgenes or lack appropriate expression in critical tissues, but both can drive the transgenes to spread from very low initial frequencies. Here we use mathematical models to assess the utility of combining EU with MD or with Wolbachia. Under some conditions, the combination of EU and MD results in a more efficient transgene-drive strategy than either mechanism alone. This combined strategy could drive the transgenes to stable fixation and would require fewer released insects than EU alone, especially when only males are released. However, a combination of EU and Wolbachia does not work better than EU alone because it requires the release of even more engineered insects.
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Animais Geneticamente Modificados , Insetos Vetores/genética , Modelos Genéticos , Transgenes , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Feminino , Controle de Insetos , Masculino , Meiose/genética , Wolbachia/genéticaRESUMO
Recent findings suggest that the intestinal microbiota of patients suffering from relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) shows changes on the relative abundances of archaeal and bacterial genera. Although the richness and overall structure of the microbiota may be similar compared to the intestinal microbiota of healthy controls, elevated and reduced frequencies suggest a dysbiotic microbiota in MS. Over the past decade experimental evidence obtained in murine models of the disease highlighted the important relevance of the microbiota in the regulation of the immune system and in the severity of the disease. More recent findings on peripheral immune cells derived from human MS patients support the initial observations that changes in the microbiota may affect immunological pathways that could exacerbate disease. However, important questions remain to be answered. For instance, it is unclear whether dysbiosis precedes disease or, if in the contrary, an autoimmune disease such as MS can lead to gut dysbiosis. In this brief discussion, we speculate about this later possibility based on findings observed in murine models of disease. Further human studies are needed to answer the dilemma and determine specific immunomodulatory pathways that could have an impact on the therapeutic approaches to treat MS.
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BACKGROUND: Nearly a quarter of emerging infectious diseases identified in the last century are arthropod-borne. Although ticks and insects can carry pathogenic microorganisms, non-pathogenic microbes make up the majority of their microbial communities. The majority of tick microbiome research has had a focus on discovery and description; very few studies have analyzed the ecological context and functional responses of the bacterial microbiome of ticks. The goal of this analysis was to characterize the stability of the bacterial microbiome of Dermacentor andersoni ticks between generations and two populations within a species. METHODS: The bacterial microbiome of D. andersoni midguts and salivary glands was analyzed from populations collected at two different ecologically distinct sites by comparing field (F1) and lab-reared populations (F1-F3) over three generations. The microbiome composition of pooled and individual samples was analyzed by sequencing nearly full-length 16S rRNA gene amplicons using a Pacific Biosciences CCS platform that allows identification of bacteria to the species level. FINDINGS: In this study, we found that the D. andersoni microbiome was distinct in different geographic populations and was tissue specific, differing between the midgut and the salivary gland, over multiple generations. Additionally, our study showed that the microbiomes of laboratory-reared populations were not necessarily representative of their respective field populations. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the microbiome of a few individual ticks does not represent the microbiome composition at the population level. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that the bacterial microbiome of D. andersoni was complex over three generations and specific to tick tissue (midgut vs. salivary glands) as well as geographic location (Burns, Oregon vs. Lake Como, Montana vs. laboratory setting). These results provide evidence that habitat of the tick population is a vital component of the complexity of the bacterial microbiome of ticks, and that the microbiome of lab colonies may not allow for comparative analyses with field populations. A broader understanding of microbiome variation will be required if we are to employ manipulation of the microbiome as a method for interfering with acquisition and transmission of tick-borne pathogens.
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Bactérias/isolamento & purificação , Dermacentor/microbiologia , Microbiota/genética , Animais , Bactérias/classificação , Microbioma Gastrointestinal/genética , RNA Ribossômico 16S/genética , Glândulas Salivares/microbiologia , Análise de Sequência de DNA , SimbioseRESUMO
The gut microbiome plays an important role in the development of inflammatory disease as shown using experimental models of central nervous system (CNS) demyelination. Gut microbes influence the response of regulatory immune cell populations in the gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT), which drive protection in acute and chronic experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). Recent observations suggest that communication between the host and the gut microbiome is bidirectional. We hypothesized that the gut microbiota differs between the acute inflammatory and chronic progressive stages of a murine model of secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SP-MS). This non-obese diabetic (NOD) model of EAE develops a biphasic pattern of disease that more closely resembles the human condition when transitioning from relapsing-remitting (RR)-MS to SP-MS. We compared the gut microbiome of NOD mice with either mild or severe disease to that of non-immunized control mice. We found that the mice which developed a severe secondary form of EAE harbored a dysbiotic gut microbiome when compared with the healthy control mice. Furthermore, we evaluated whether treatment with a cocktail of broad-spectrum antibiotics would modify the outcome of the progressive stage of EAE in the NOD model. Our results indicated reduced mortality and clinical disease severity in mice treated with antibiotics compared with untreated mice. Our findings support the hypothesis that there are reciprocal effects between experimental CNS inflammatory demyelination and modification of the microbiome providing a foundation for the establishment of early therapeutic interventions targeting the gut microbiome that could potentially limit disease progression.
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Fenômenos Fisiológicos Bacterianos , Modelos Animais de Doenças , Disbiose/microbiologia , Microbioma Gastrointestinal/fisiologia , Esclerose Múltipla/microbiologia , Animais , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Fenômenos Fisiológicos Bacterianos/efeitos dos fármacos , Progressão da Doença , Disbiose/tratamento farmacológico , Disbiose/prevenção & controle , Encefalomielite Autoimune Experimental/induzido quimicamente , Encefalomielite Autoimune Experimental/microbiologia , Encefalomielite Autoimune Experimental/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Microbioma Gastrointestinal/efeitos dos fármacos , Humanos , Imunomodulação , Camundongos , Camundongos Endogâmicos NOD , Fragmentos de Peptídeos/farmacologia , RNA Ribossômico 16S/genética , Análise de Sequência de DNARESUMO
The assumed straightforward connection between transmission intensity and disease occurrence impacts surveillance and control efforts along with statistical methodology, including parameter inference and niche modeling. Many infectious disease systems have the potential for this connection to be more complicated-although demonstrating this in any given disease system has remained elusive. Hemorrhagic disease (HD) is one of the most important diseases of white-tailed deer and is caused by viruses in the Orbivirus genus. Like many infectious diseases, the probability or severity of disease increases with age (after loss of maternal antibodies) and the probability of disease is lower upon re-infection compared to first infection (based on cross-immunity between virus strains). These broad criteria generate a prediction that disease occurrence is maximized at intermediate levels of transmission intensity. Using published US field data, we first fit a statistical model to predict disease occurrence as a function of seroprevalence (a proxy for transmission intensity), demonstrating that states with intermediate seroprevalence have the highest level of case reporting. We subsequently introduce an independently parameterized mechanistic model supporting the theory that high case reporting should come from areas with intermediate levels of transmission. This is the first rigorous demonstration of this phenomenon and illustrates that variation in transmission rate (e.g. along an ecologically-controlled transmission gradient) can create cryptic refuges for infectious diseases.
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Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Doenças dos Animais/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Animais/transmissão , Animais , Vírus Bluetongue/fisiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Modelos Teóricos , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
While vector-borne diseases are known to be particularly influenced by environmental factors, the impact of land-cover change on vector-borne wildlife disease patterns is poorly understood, largely due to the paucity of data on disease occurrence at extensive spatial and temporal scales. Widespread and rapid anthropogenic land-cover change, especially urbanization, has transformed the US landscape during the last century. Epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus and blue tongue virus, vectored by Culicoides biting midges, are two RNA viruses in the Orbivirus genus that cause severe hemorrhagic disease (HD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We examine the spatial dynamics of HD affecting white-tailed deer in the contiguous United States in two periods covering 1980 to 2007 in connection with land-cover change over the same time. Using spatial statistical modeling, wetland cover emerges as a critical driver of HD morbidity, whereas the drivers of mortality patterns are more complex. Increasing wetland cover is positively associated with HD morbidity, which is consistent with the ecologic requirements of the Culicoides vector. Wetland cover is inherently dynamic due to its importance to biodiversity and water quality as well as its utility for other purposes when drained. Accordingly this analysis helps in understanding the consequences of changing wetlands on vector-borne disease patterns, to identify disease hotspots in a large landscape, and to forecast the spatial spread of HD and related diseases.
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Cervos/virologia , Infecções por Reoviridae/veterinária , Áreas Alagadas , Animais , Biodiversidade , Ceratopogonidae/virologia , Feminino , Vírus da Doença Hemorrágica Epizoótica , Insetos Vetores/virologia , Masculino , Infecções por Reoviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Reoviridae/transmissão , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Understanding the ecology and evolution of tick-borne parasites is the foundation for preventing and managing tick-borne diseases. Tick-borne diseases such as Lyme borreliosis, are an emerging health threat in America, Europe, and Asia. Certain strains of Borrelia burgdorferi (the etiological agent of Lyme borreliosis) sampled in nature appear to be rapidly cleared by murine hosts. These strains, unlike their inhost-persistent counterparts, are unlikely to manifest severe disease. Their emergence and abundance in North America is unclear. Understanding why strains adopt a persistent or rapid-clearing phenotype is a crucial question in Lyme biology. Using dynamic, data-driven infectivity profiles in a competitive, two-strain mathematical model, we show that these phenotypes are differentially favored under distinct ecological conditions (i.e. vector phenology). We argue these two phenotypes represent distinct parasite life-history strategies, impacting regional Lyme disease severity across North America.
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Grupo Borrelia Burgdorferi/patogenicidade , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa , Ixodes/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Ixodes/microbiologia , Doença de Lyme/microbiologia , Doença de Lyme/transmissão , Animais , Grupo Borrelia Burgdorferi/classificação , Grupo Borrelia Burgdorferi/genética , Humanos , Estágios do Ciclo de Vida , Doença de Lyme/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , América do Norte/epidemiologia , Fenótipo , Estações do AnoRESUMO
Wildlife and plant diseases can reduce biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and threaten human health. Emerging pathogens have displayed a variety of spatial spread patterns due to differences in host ecology, including diffusive spread from an epicentre (West Nile virus), jump dispersal on a network (foot-and-mouth disease), or a combination of these (Sudden oak death). White-nose syndrome is a highly pathogenic infectious disease of bats currently spreading across North America. Understanding how bat ecology influences this spread is crucial to management of infected and vulnerable populations. Here we show that white-nose syndrome spread is not diffusive but rather mediated by patchily distributed habitat and large-scale gradients in winter climate. Simulations predict rapid expansion and infection of most counties with caves in the contiguous United States by winter 2105-2106. Our findings show the unique pattern of white-nose syndrome spread corresponds to ecological traits of the host and suggest hypotheses for transmission mechanisms acting at the local scale.
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Quirópteros/microbiologia , Micoses/veterinária , Animais , Clima , Geografia , Micoses/epidemiologia , Micoses/transmissão , América do Norte/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , SíndromeRESUMO
West Nile virus (WNV) is generally considered to be an urban pathogen in the United States, but studies associating land cover and disease incidence, seroprevalence, or infection rate in humans, birds, domesticated and wild mammals, and mosquitoes report varying and sometimes contradictory results at an array of spatial extents. Human infection can provide insight about basic transmission activity; therefore, we analyzed data on the incidence of WNV disease in humans to obtain a comprehensive picture of how human disease and land cover type are associated across the United States. Human WNV disease incidence in Northeastern regions was positively associated with urban land covers, whereas incidence in the Western United States was positively associated with agricultural land covers. We suggest that these regional associations are explained by the geographic distributions of prominent WNV vectors: Culex pipiens complex (including Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus) in the Northeast and Cx. tarsalis in the Western United States.
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Geografia , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/epidemiologia , Agricultura , Meio Ambiente , Humanos , Incidência , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Febre do Nilo Ocidental/etiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons. CONCLUSIONS: This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.
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Aedes , Modelos Teóricos , Animais , Argentina , Feminino , Dinâmica Populacional , Processos Estocásticos , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional) strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses) for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM). Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating F(ST) values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome of genetic control methods. Skeeter Buster is therefore an important tool to model Ae. aegypti populations and the outcome of vector control measures.
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Many parasitoids are known to use herbivore-induced plant volatiles as cues to locate hosts. However, data are lacking on how much of an advantage a parasitoid can gain from following these plant cues and which factors can limit the value of these cues to the parasitoid. In this study, we simulate the Cotesia rubecula-Pieris rapae-Brassica oleracea system, and ask how many more hosts can a parasitoid attack in a single day of foraging by following plant signals versus randomly foraging. We vary herbivore density, plant response time, parasitoid flight distance, and available host stages to see under which conditions parasitoids benefit from herbivore-induced plant cues. In most of the parameter combinations studied, parasitoids that responded to cues attacked more hosts than those that foraged randomly. Parasitoids following plant cues attacked up to ten times more hosts when they were able to successfully attack herbivores older than first instar; however, if parasitoids were limited to first instar hosts, those following plant cues were at a disadvantage when plants took longer than a day to respond to herbivory. At low herbivore densities, only parasitoids with a larger foraging radius could take advantage of plant cues. Although preference for herbivore-induced volatiles was not always beneficial for a parasitoid, under the most likely natural conditions, the model predicts that C. rubecula gains fitness from following plant cues.