Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The extent of healthcare expenditure within households stands as a crucial indicator in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). When out-of-pocket healthcare expenses surpass household income or become unduly burdensome, it serves as a significant socio-economic alarm, resulting in a reduced quality of life, a phenomenon referred to as 'catastrophic health expenditure (CHE).' Multiple factors can contribute to the occurrence of CHE. The study's objective was to identify the key uncertainties and driving forces influencing CHE to develop scenarios in Iran on the horizon of 2030. METHODS: This study was conducted between December 2021 and January 2023, data were collected through a literature review, and experts' opinions were gathered via questionnaires, interviews, and expert panels. The statistical population included experts in the fields of health policy, health economics, and futures studies. Scenario Wizard software and MICMAC analysis were employed for data analysis, providing valuable insights into potential future scenarios of health expenditures in Iran. RESULTS: Based on the results of the scoping review and semi-structured interview, 65 key factors in the fields of economics, politics, technology, social, and environmental were identified. The findings of the MICMAC analysis presented 10 key variables. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. These scenarios included catastrophic cost crises, sanction relief, selective information access, technological ambiguity, induced demand management, and incremental reforms. CONCLUSIONS: Each of the six drawn scenarios provides images of the future of health expenditure in Iranian households on the horizon of 2030. The worst-case scenario from all scenarios was scenario one, with the most probable and critical features to derive Iran's health expenditures. The current study is a valuable addition to the literature depicting the key drivers that all developing nations can consider to decrease exposing households to catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures.

Enhancing global health diplomacy for non-communicable diseases: application of the global health network framework.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Understanding the characteristics of global policy actors and the political context in which they address diplomatic issues in the field of NCDs can play an important role in advancing NCD-related goals. The purpose of this study was to identify and analyze the network of global health actors in the field of NCDs in Iran. METHODS: This study was conducted in 2020 using a qualitative methodology and framework analysis. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with subject-matter experts from all levels of diplomacy, including global, regional, and national, who had managerial, administrative, and academic experience. FINDINGS: A total of 21 interviews were conducted with individuals who met the inclusion criteria. Following the framework of the World Health Network, the findings were divided into three general areas: the features of the network and the actors; the policy environment; and the characteristics of the issue. CONCLUSION: A successful and sustainable program to combat NCDs requires the participation of multiple actors from governments, the private sector, and civil society at international, national, and local levels. The Global Network for Prevention and Control of NCDs should enhance the effectiveness of NCDs policies by highlighting the need to simultaneously improve the internal factors of the network, including relationships among the actors; external factors, including the policy environment; and the complex nature of NCDs.

Policy analysis of the protection of Iranian households against catastrophic health expenditures: a qualitative analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the adoption of various policies and strategies in recent decades, the Iranian health system has not succeeded in protecting households against catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and impoverishment. Accordingly, this qualitative study aimed to critically analyze current policies for reducing CHE. METHODS: This qualitative study was conducted as a retrospective policy analysis based on a document review and semi-structured interviews with key informants between July to October 2022. Two theoretical frameworks were used, including the Analysis of Determinants of Policy Impact (ADEPT) model and Walt and Gilson's "Policy Triangle framework." The country's related documents were searched through databases. In total, 35 participants were interviewed. Interviews and documents were analyzed using directed content analysis in MAXQDA v12 software. Interobserver reliability, peer check, and member check were done to confirm the trustworthiness of the data. RESULTS: Twelve main themes and 42 sub-themes emerged from the data. The findings revealed that policy accessibility, policy background, and a clear statement of goals influenced the policy process. However, resources, monitoring and evaluation, opportunities, and obligations negatively affected the implementation process. In addition, a policy analysis based on the policy triangle framework demonstrated that the main factors affecting the policy on reducing CHE in Iran were "conflicts of interest," "contextual factors," "monitoring and evaluation," and "intersectoral relationship" factors. CONCLUSION: The present study reflected the multifaceted nature of the barriers to reducing CHE in Iran. The implementation of the policy on reducing CHE requires the political will to improve intersectoral collaboration, strengthen the stewardship role of the Ministry of Health, design monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, and prevent personal and organizational conflicts of interest.

The Variations in Catastrophic and Impoverishing Health Expenditures, and Its Determinants in Iran: A Scoping Review.

Background: The high reliance on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for health financing in Iran have been led to different inequity problems such as catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishment. This scoping review has been conducted to understand the variations in CHE and impoverishment, the underlying determinants of CHE, and its inequality in the past 20 years. Methods: This scoping review is guided by Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review framework. systematically PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ProQuest, Scientific Information Database, IranMedex, IranDoc, Magiran Science, Google Scholar, and grey literature were searched systematically from 1 January 2000 to August 2021. We included studies that reported the rate of CHE, impoverishment, inequality, and its influencing factors. Simple descriptive statistics and narrative synthesis were used to present the review findings. Results: From 112 included articles, the average incidence of CHE was 3.19% at the 40% threshold, and about 3.21% of the households had impoverished. We found an unfavorable status of health inequality indices, including the average of fair financial contribution (0.833), concentration (-0.01), Gini coefficient (0.42), and Kakwani (-0.149). The most widely applied key drivers influencing the rate of CHE in these studies were household economic status, place of residence, health insurance status, household size, head of the household's gender, education level and employment status, having a household member under 5/ above 60 years old, with chronic diseases (in particular cancer and dialysis), disability, using inpatient and outpatient and dentistry services, medicines and equipment, and low insurance coverage. Conclusion: The result of this review calls for intensifying health policies and financing structures in Iran to provide more equitable access to all populations, especially the poorest and vulnerable. Moreover, the government is expected to adopt effective measures in inpatient and outpatient care, dental services, medicines, and equipment.

Dimensions of Health Care Management Professionalization: A Scoping Review.

Background: Within the public sector, health managers occupy positions that are typically filled by individuals with a medical, clinical, or nursing experience who are entrusted with assuming an additional role. The primary objective of this study was to employ a scoping review methodology to ascertain a cluster of prevalent subjects encompassing the development of a proficient health care manager. Methods: The purpose of this scoping review study was to identify critical components in the field of management professionalization, as described by Arksey and O'Malley. A total of 13 studies, characterized by predefined keywords, were meticulously culled from Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and Embase, Magiran, and SID databases. The inclusion and exclusion criteria considered factors such as language, temporal relevance, redundancy, thematic alignment with the professionalization domain, and congruence with the overarching objectives and methodologies of the present investigation. Subsequently, the contents of the selected studies were subjected to rigorous thematic analysis and judicious categorization using a framework analysis approach. Results: From a total of 10,117 articles, a rigorous selection process yielded 13 articles to be included in this study. The identified dimensions are classified and elucidated across 6 overarching domains; namely, the science of management, educational trajectory, and curriculum, cultural infrastructure and ideologies, standards, professional institutions and associations, and licenses and certifications. Conclusion: To enhance the efficacy of health management, policymakers and planners ought to adeptly incorporate these dimensions within the framework of the country's health system.

Toward a theory-led meta-framework for implementing health system resilience analysis studies: a systematic review and critical interpretive synthesis.

INTRODUCTION: The variety of frameworks and models to describe resilience in the health system has led researchers and policymakers to confusion and the inability to its operationalization. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to create a meta-framework using the Critical Interpretive Synthesis method. METHOD: For this purpose, studies that provide theories, models, or frameworks for organizational or health system resilience in humanitarian or organizational crises were systematically reviewed. The search strategy was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus databases. MMAT quality appraisal tool was applied. Data were analysed using MAXQDA 10 and the Meta-ethnography method. RESULTS: After screening based on eligibility criteria, 43 studies were reviewed. Data analysis led to the identification of five main themes which constitute different framework dimensions. Health system resilience phases, attributes, tools, and strategies besides health system building blocks and goals are various dimensions that provide a systematic framework for health system resilience analysis. DISCUSSION: This study provides a systemic, comprehensive framework for health system resilience analysis. This meta-framework makes it possible to detect the completeness of resilience phases. It examines the system's resilience by its achievements in intermediate objectives (resilience system attributes) and health system goals. Finally, it provides policy solutions to achieve health system resilience using tools in the form of absorptive, adaptive, and transformative strategies.

Hospitals during economic crisis: a systematic review based on resilience system capacities framework.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals are the biggest users of the health system budgets. Policymakers are interested in improving hospital efficiency while maintaining their performance during the economic crisis. This study aims at analysing the hospitals' policy solutions during the economic crisis using the resilience system capacities framework. METHOD: This study is a systematic review. The search strategy was implemented on the Web of Science, PubMed, Embase, Scopus databases, and Econbiz search portal. Data were extracted and analysed through the comparative table of resilience system capacities framework and the World Health Organization (WHO) health system's six building blocks (i.e., leadership and governance, service delivery, health workforce, health systems financing, health information systems, and medicines and equipment). FINDINGS: After the screening, 78 studies across 36 countries were reviewed. The economic crisis and adopted policies had a destructive effect on hospital contribution in achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC). The short-term absorptive capacity policies were the most frequent policies against the economic crisis. Moreover, the least frequent and most effective policies were adaptive policies. Transformative policies mainly focused on moving from hospital-based to integrated and community-based services. The strength of primary care and community-based services, types and combination of hospital financing systems, hospital performance before the crisis, hospital managers' competencies, and regional, specialties, and ownership differences between hospitals can affect the nature and success of adopted policies. CONCLUSION: The focus of countries on short-term policies and undermining necessary contextual factors, prioritizing efficiency over quality, and ignoring the interrelation of policies compromised hospital contribution in UHC.

Financing of Rare Diseases and Orphan Drugs in A Sanctioned Country: A Qualitative Study.

Background: Rare diseases-related services, care, and drugs (Orphan Drugs) in a lower-middle-income country such as Iran with international limitations due to the sanctions is a challenging issue in terms of their financing and providing. This study aims to address financing issues related to rare diseases in a lower-middle-income country that is under international sanctions. Methods: This is a qualitative study that has been conducted through 14 interviews with experts from different stakeholders in the country to find the challenges of financing rare diseases and orphan drugs in Iran through a content analysis according to Mayring's approach. We accomplished this study based on the World Health Organization's universal health coverage model. Results: We achieved four themes and 12 sub-themes. The themes are the unstable and sanctioned economy including 4 sub-themes; extending the covered population by the social security net in the country including 2 sub-themes; reducing the cost-sharing for the covered population including 4 sub-themes; including more orphan drugs and services including 2 sub-themes. Conclusion: The financing of rare diseases and orphan drugs in Iran is challenged by several contextual and internal factors. The political issues seem to have the main contribution of the challenge to develop an efficient and effective financing mechanism for rare diseases and orphan drugs. This is especially can be related to the politicians' commitments and pursuing an effective plan to allocate the financial resources to rare diseases. However, the country's economic situation, especially at the macro level because of international limitations, has intensified the problem.

The influential factors for achieving universal health coverage in Iran: a multimethod study.

BACKGROUND: The initial purpose of healthcare systems around the world is to promote and maintain the health of the population. Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is a new approach by which a healthcare system can reach its goals. World Health Organization (WHO) emphasized maximum population coverage, health service coverage, and financial protection, as three dimensions of UHC. In progress for achieving UHC, recognizing the influential factors allows us to accelerate such progress. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the influential factors to achieve UHC in Iran. METHODS: This is a multi-method study was conducted in four phases: First, a systematic review of the literature was conducted to identify the factors in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, ProQuest, Cochrane library, and Science Direct databases, and hand searching google scholar search engine. For recognizing the unmentioned factors, a qualitative study consisting of one session of Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and five semi-structured interviews with experts was designed. The extracted factors were merged and categorized by round table discussion. Finally, the pre-categorized factors were refined and re-categorized under the health system's control knobs framework during three expert panel sessions. RESULTS: Finally, 33 studies were included. Eight hundred two factors were extracted through systematic review and 96 factors through FGD and interviews (totally, 898). After refining them by the experts' panel, 105 factors were categorized within the control knob framework (financing 19, payment system7, Organization 23, regulation and supervision 33, Behavior 11, and Others 12). The majority of the identified factors were related to the "regulation and supervision" dimension, whilst the "payment system" entailed the fewest. The political commitment during political turmoil, excessive attention to the treatment, referral system, paying out of pocket(OOP) and protection against high costs, economic growth, sanctions, conflict of interests, weakness of the information system, prioritization of services, health system fragmented, lack of managerial support and lack of standard benefits packages were identified as the leading factors on the way to UHC. CONCLUSION: Considering the distinctive role of the context in policymaking, the identification of the factors affecting UHC accompanying by the countries' experiences about UHC, can boost our speed toward it. Moreover, adopting a long-term plan toward UHC based on these factors and the robust implementation of it pave the way for Iran to achieve better outcomes comparing to their efforts.

Opportunities and challenges of global health diplomacy for prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The growing globalization has changed the goals and methods of diplomacy. Due to the challenges and complexities of dealing with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) at the national and international levels, policy makers require global health diplomacy (GHD) to achieve the goals of prevention and control of NCDs. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify the challenges and opportunities in GHD for NCDs. METHODS: A systematic review of articles was conducted by searching MEDLINE via PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase and by using Google and Google Scholar search engines. Additional articles were identified by reviewing reference lists and a number of special journals. The inclusion criteria include literature published in English from 2007 to 2020, and the exclusion criteria are literature published in any language other than English, absence of full text, dissertations, and duplicates. Overall, 32 articles met the requirements for inclusion in this review and were analyzed using content analysis in MAXQDA 10. FINDINGS: There are 32 published articles on GHD for NCDs. Identified challenges were classified into three levels: global (global health governance), national (Governance at the state level, health sector, and civil society), and industry. The progress on global health issues has created opportunities for the development of GHD for the prevention and control of NCDs. These opportunities were divided into three levels: international, national, and individual level. CONCLUSION: Various challenges at the global level, national level, and industry led to less engagement of policymakers in GHD for prevention and control of NCDs and, as a consequence, a less coordinated approach to address prevention and control of NCDs worldwide. So, there is a need for more efforts of collective action and negotiation for tackling NCDs. Policymakers and managers of the health system should increase the advocacy, building a coalition with civil society, use negotiation and diplomacy to engage with other sectors and organizations, manage industry conflicts, and leverage foreign policy to promote health and welfare.

Challenges and opportunities for Iranian global health diplomacy: lessons learned from action for prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases.

BACKGROUND: The steady rise in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide has been a key global health challenge. Governments have the primary responsibility for taking action to prevent and control NCDs. Given the growing importance of globalization of healthcare as well as the increasing use of soft power, governments need to identify challenges and opportunities to enhance global health diplomacy (GHD) for NCD prevention and control. The purpose of this qualitative research was to explain the challenges and opportunities of GHD for NCDs in Iran. METHODS: This study was conducted in 2020 using a qualitative approach and through in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 21 experts and specialists in related fields such as health policy, healthcare management, epidemiology and other related specialties. The participants were selected from all levels of diplomacy, including global, regional and national levels, with at least 3 years of experience in managerial, executive and scientific activities. Data analysis was performed by content analysis with an inductive approach. Data were analysed using inductive content analysis. RESULTS: The identified challenges were categorized into five main themes, including content challenges, structural challenges, process challenges, governance challenges and cultural challenges. Opportunities extracted from the interviews were also categorized into four main themes, including strong political will, utilizing the capacity of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), multisectoral collaborations and a well-developed health system. CONCLUSIONS: NCD prevention and control requires a multilateral collaboration-based solution. Recognition of the challenges and opportunities in GHD can help draw significant lessons for building the necessary capacities and implementing more effective policies to prevent and control NCDs.

Global Health diplomacy for noncommunicable diseases prevention and control: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: The prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are one of the main challenges of healthcare systems around the world. In addition to the technical level, it requires political negotiations and solutions, such as global health diplomacy (GHD), which involves the participation of a wide range of actors and stakeholders and innovative international health partnerships. This review aimed to draw lessons for strengthening linkages with a wide range of actors and stakeholders from the GHD literature for NCDs, and how policymakers and political leaders can effectively use international health partnerships to beat NCDs. METHODS: This research was a systematic review of the literature on GHD for NCDs. All relevant articles published in English were identified by searching PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase databases, Google and Google Scholar search engines, and the reference lists of identified articles as well as a number of special journals. 30 articles that met the inclusion criteria were analyzed using content analysis in MAXQDA 10. The Global Health Diplomacy Pyramid and Blouin and Dubé's (2010) analytical framework for examining negotiations were used to classify the data. FINDINGS: 30 articles have been published on GHD for NCDs. Five key themes, i.e. the specific problem requiring global collective action, key actors, their interests in the problem, potential negotiation process, and potential scenarios for collective action and 46 sub-themes were identified. Moreover, given the importance of collaboration on NCDs in the international arena, actors were categorized into three groups based on the GHD Pyramid: (1) core diplomacy, (2) multi-stakeholder diplomacy, and (3) informal diplomacy. CONCLUSION: Development and adoption of a global policy to tackle the rise in NCDs in developed and developing countries require policymakers and political leaders that participate in GHD. Successful developments in global health policy depend on the performance of and respectful relationships among the stakeholders, and global health diplomats need to understand the complexities of the institutional structures and functional relationships of the international institutions involved in health.

Future competencies for hospital management in developing countries: Systematic review.

Background: This was a systematic review presenting the future competencies for hospital managers. Methods: Participants, interventions, comparisons and outcomes (PICO) strategy with MeSH terms were used for searching. Databases used were Web of Science, PsycINFO and Medline, EBSCO, ScienceDirect, Emerald, ProQuest, Social Sciences Research Network, Embase, and some Iranian database such as IRANDOC and SID. All publications were accepted if they had been published in English or Persian language and fulltexts were accessible. The study was carried out using a systematic literature search published between January 1995 and December 2018. The Endnote v.17 software was used to facilitate reference management. Quality assessment of publications were carried out independently by two reviewers using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist. A descriptive summary with data tables produced to summarize the literature. Data extraction was conducted by two researchers. Results: Forty seven studies were analyzed to identify the future competencies required for hospital managers. In all, 3190 publications were retrieved. 1934 citations were excluded because of irrelevant (n=2600), duplicates (n=316), and unavailable full text (n=18). After studying the 256 remaining publications, 33 citations were extracted and presented. After extracting the future competencies of hospital managers, competencies were classified into four main categories based on the qualitative meta-synthesis process. Conclusion: The most important competencies in the future are global knowledge, Key Eligibility Criteria, wide attitude and core skills that must be addressed in the face of ambiguity.

Identifying and prioritizing the drivers of the future of public hospitals in Iran.

Background: Rapid development in today's modern world have made predicting the future difficult. Hospitals, as a major complex in a community, are no exception. Knowing the future facilitates laying plans for it. To predict the future, knowing the factors affecting the future is crucial. This study was therefore conducted to identify and predict the factors affecting the future of hospitals in Iran. Methods: This study was conducted in three steps. The drivers of the future of hospitals in Iran were listed by analyzing the results of a literature review and then semi-structured interviews with hospital experts. Afterward, the effect of individual drivers was determined using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) by formulated in excel software. Results: Based on the results of the first Phase, 30 effective drivers were identified in 6 areas of modern technology, economy, politics, demography and community, environment, and culture. Prioritization results showed that modern technology (0.246) and economic factors (0.198) had priority over the other factors. Moreover, the effects of sub-factors such as modern information technology and technologies on the future of public hospitals in Iran were more significant compared to those of the other factors. Conclusion: The present results showed that information technology and modern technology, as well as the economy, were the two main drivers of the future of public hospitals in Iran. Hospitals should identify and lay plans for the mechanisms through which the two factors affect hospitals, given their failure to control the upward trends of the factors.

Utilization of integrated health kiosks: A systematic review.

Background: In some countries, integrated health kiosks are used to provide some services and information. However; it is still not officially included in many countries' health systems. The purpose of this study was to gather and summarize different aspects of using health kiosks in countries. Methods: Five English databases, including Web of Science, Cochrane Library, PubMed / Medline, Embase and Scopus, were explored from 2001 to 2018, using words related to three concepts: health, design and development, and kiosk. Different dimensions of health kiosks utilization in the world were identified and analyzed thematically. Results: Out of 918 search results, 37 articles were included in the study and analyzed. Most of them were conducted in the United States and addressed the development, implementation, design, or feasibility of utilizing integrated health kiosks. The different aspects of kiosk utilization were categorized into 6 dimensions: services provided, deployment location, user characteristics and variables of accepting kiosks, notable design and construction points, their benefits and effectiveness, and finally, the challenges of using kiosks. Conclusion: This study found that health kiosks are promising, cost-effective and multifunctional tools; if included in the formal health system of countries, they may improve health indicators in countries. However, before deploying, their challenges and concerns need to be investigated and addressed.

Health information technologies in Iran: Opportunities for development.

Background: Health information technologies (HIT) have some benefits and may have some potentially negative impacts. Therefore, it is difficult to plan for future health information technologies. This study aimed to investigate the key and non-key health information technologies which could be considered for the future strategy development in Iran. Methods: In this study, experts and policymakers in the field of health information technology were invited to take part in a qualitative study. Purposive sampling was used to select the most informant people, and 13 interviews were conducted. The method of framework analysis was used to analyze data. Results: The four main themes emerged from data analysis were 1) immediate, cheap, stable, and secure access to the health records of the society, 2) equitable access to health care resources and services, 3) knowledge management in healthcare services, and 4) governmental/central electronic services for the health system. To cover the mentioned areas, a number of key and non-key technologies were discussed by the interviewees. Conclusion: In this study, a number of key and non-key health information technologies were recognized. While the findings can help policymakers to pay more attention to the key technologies to improve healthcare delivery, these technologies need to be prioritized in terms of their importance for the country.

Donor retention in health care in Iran: a factor analysis.

Background: Long-term financial support is essential for the survival of a charitable organization. Health charities need to identify the effective factors influencing donor retention. Methods: In the present study, the items of a questionnaire were derived from both literature review and semi-structured interviews related to donor retention. Using a purposive sampling, 300 academic and executive practitioners were selected. After the follow- up, a total of 243 usable questionnaires were prepared for factor analysis. The questionnaire was validated based on the face and content validity and reliability through Cronbach's α-coefficient. Results: The results of exploratory factor analysis extracted 2 factors for retention: donor factor (variance = 33.841%; Cronbach's α-coefficient = 90.2) and charity factor (variance = 29.038%; Cronbach's α-coefficient = 82.8), respectively. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis was applied to support the overall reasonable fit. Conclusions: In this study, it was found that repeated monetary donations are supplied to the charitable organizations when both aspects of donor factor (retention factor and charity factor) for retention are taken into consideration. This model could provide a perspective for making sustainable donations and charitable giving.

Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

Proposing a framework for Health Impact Assessment in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Health impact assessments (HIA) of policies and projects are conducted differently in different contexts although there has been less HIA research to date in non-western countries. Global HIA research has however suggested that the technical conduct of HIAs is tied to broader conditions and influences to do with decision making and policy development. This study was conducted to develop a conceptual framework for progressing HIA in Iran including all factors influencing HIA planning and practice. METHODS: A comprehensive review of the international HIA literature identified core characteristics and principles. Then key informant interviews (n = 14) identified Iranian perspectives about factors influencing HIAs practice. These two stages resulted in a conceptual framework for HIA planning and practice including influencing factors and HIA content that was confirmed by our participants using e-Delphi technique. RESULTS: 91 HIA characteristics were organized into 20 categories. The interviews showed that four core concepts i.e. context, actors, HIA principles and policies and HIA capacities influence HIA practice in Iran. Comprehensive content of HIA considering all health dimensions and health determinants, assessing health inequalities, appropriate HIA type, quantification and participation is formed under influence of the above mentioned four factors. The study also demonstrated need to redefine the HIA principles and make decision about integration of HIA in Environmental Impact Assessment and also about the level of HIA before implementing HIA. The e-Delphi resulted in expert consensus on the variables, concepts, and their relations in proposed framework. CONCLUSIONS: Progressing HIA practice in Iran is perceived locally as subject to similar contextual conditions to those identified in the international literature. Further we have demonstrated the utility of mixed methods to progress HIA implementation in differing country contexts.