Updated cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit analysis of two infant rotavirus vaccination strategies in a high-income, low-endemic setting.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Since 2013, a biennial rotavirus pattern has emerged in the Netherlands with alternating high and low endemic years and a nearly 50% reduction in rotavirus hospitalization rates overall, while infant rotavirus vaccination has remained below 1% throughout. As the rotavirus vaccination cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit ratio in high-income settings is highly influenced by the total rotavirus disease burden, we re-evaluated two infant vaccination strategies, taking into account this recent change in rotavirus epidemiology. METHODS: We used updated rotavirus disease burden estimates derived from (active) surveillance to evaluate (1) a targeted strategy with selective vaccination of infants with medical risk conditions (prematurity, low birth weight, or congenital conditions) and (2) universal vaccination including all infants. In addition, we added herd protection as well as vaccine-induced intussusception risk to our previous cost-effectiveness model. An age- and risk-group structured, discrete-time event, stochastic multi-cohort model of the Dutch pediatric population was used to estimate the costs and effects of each vaccination strategy. RESULTS: The targeted vaccination was cost-saving under all scenarios tested from both the healthcare payer and societal perspective at rotavirus vaccine market prices (€135/child). The cost-effectiveness ratio for universal vaccination was €51,277 at the assumed vaccine price of €75/child, using a societal perspective and 3% discount rates. Universal vaccination became cost-neutral at €32/child. At an assumed vaccine-induced intussusception rate of 1/50,000, an estimated 1707 hospitalizations and 21 fatal rotavirus cases were averted by targeted vaccination per vaccine-induced intussusception case. Applying universal vaccination, an additional 571 hospitalizations and <  1 additional rotavirus death were averted in healthy children per vaccine-induced intussusception case. CONCLUSION: While universal infant rotavirus vaccination results in the highest reductions in the population burden of rotavirus, targeted vaccination should be considered as a cost-saving alternative with a favorable risk-benefit ratio for high-income settings where universal implementation is unfeasible because of budget restrictions, low rotavirus endemicity, and/or public acceptance.

Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) versus endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for resection of large distal non-pedunculated colorectal adenomas (MATILDA-trial): rationale and design of a multicenter randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is currently the most used technique for resection of large distal colorectal polyps. However, in large lesions EMR can often only be performed in a piecemeal fashion resulting in relatively low radical (R0)-resection rates and high recurrence rates. Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a newer procedure that is more difficult resulting in a longer procedural time, but is promising due to the high en-bloc resection rates and the very low recurrence rates. We aim to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of ESD against EMR on both short (i.e. 6 months) and long-term (i.e. 36 months). We hypothesize that in the short-run ESD is more time consuming resulting in higher healthcare costs, but is (cost-) effective on the long-term due to lower patients burden, a higher number of R0-resections and lower recurrence rates with less need for repeated procedures. METHODS: This is a multicenter randomized clinical trial in patients with a non-pedunculated polyp larger than 20 mm in the rectum, sigmoid, or descending colon suspected to be an adenoma by means of endoscopic assessment. Primary endpoint is recurrence rate at follow-up colonoscopy at 6 months. Secondary endpoints are R0-resection rate, perceived burden and quality of life, healthcare resources utilization and costs, surgical referral rate, complication rate and recurrence rate at 36 months. Quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) will be estimated taking an area under the curve approach and using EQ-5D-indexes. Healthcare costs will be calculated by multiplying used healthcare services with unit prices. The cost-effectiveness of ESD against EMR will be expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) showing additional costs per recurrence free patient and as ICER showing additional costs per QALY. DISCUSSION: If this trial confirms ESD to be favorable on the long-term, the burden of extra colonoscopies and repeated procedures can be prevented for future patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02657044 (Clinicaltrials.gov), registered January 8, 2016.

Use of DALYs in economic analyses on interventions for infectious diseases: a systematic review.

A systematic literature review was performed on full economic evaluations of infectious disease interventions using disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as outcome measure. The search was limited to the period between 1994 and September 2011 and conducted in Medline, SciSearch and EMBASE databases. We included 154 studies, mostly targeting HIV/AIDS and malaria with most conducted for African countries (40%) and <10% in high-income countries. Third-payer perspective was applied in 29% of the studies, 25% used the societal perspective and 12% used both. Only 16% of the studies took indirect effects (i.e. herd immunity) of interventions into account. Intervention, direct healthcare and indirect non-healthcare costs were taken into account in respectively 100%, 81% and 36% of the studies. The majority of the studies followed the Global Burden of Disease method for DALY estimations, but most studies deviated from WHO cost-effectiveness guidelines. Better adherence to freely accessible guidelines will improve generalizability between full economic evaluations.

The disease burden of hepatitis B, influenza, measles and salmonellosis in Germany: first results of the burden of communicable diseases in Europe study.

Setting priorities in the field of infectious diseases requires evidence-based and robust baseline estimates of disease burden. Therefore, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control initiated the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project. The project uses an incidence- and pathogen-based approach to measure the impact of both acute illness and sequelae of infectious diseases expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study presents first estimates of disease burden for four pathogens in Germany. The number of reported incident cases adjusted for underestimation served as model input. For the study period 2005-2007, the average disease burden was estimated at 33 116 DALYs/year for influenza virus, 19 115 DALYs/year for Salmonella spp., 8708 DALYs/year for hepatitis B virus and 740 DALYs/year for measles virus. This methodology highlights the importance of sequelae, particularly for hepatitis B and salmonellosis, because if omitted, the burden would have been underestimated by 98% and 56%, respectively.

The design of a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of preventive interventions for toxoplasmosis: An example of the One Health approach.

Toxoplasma gondii infections cause a large disease burden in the Netherlands, with an estimated health loss of 1,900 Disability Adjusted Life Years and a cost-of-illness estimated at €44 million annually. Infections in humans occur via exposure to oocysts in the environment and after eating undercooked meat containing tissue cysts, leading to asymptomatic or mild symptoms, but potentially leading to the development of ocular toxoplasmosis. Infection in pregnant women can lead to stillbirth and disorders in newborns. At present, prevention is only targeted at pregnant women. Cat vaccination, freezing of meat destined for undercooked consumption and enhancing biosecurity in pig husbandries are possible interventions to prevent toxoplasmosis. As these interventions bear costs for sectors in society that differ from those profiting from the benefits, we perform a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA). In an SCBA, costs and benefits of societal domains affected by the interventions are identified, making explicit which stakeholder pays and who benefits. Using an epidemiological model, we consider transmission of T. gondii after vaccination of all owned cats or cats at livestock farms. To identify relevant high-risk meat products that will be eaten undercooked, a quantitative microbial risk assessment model developed to attribute predicted T. gondii infections to specific meat products will be used. In addition, we evaluate serological monitoring of pigs at slaughter followed by an audit and tailor made advice for farmers in case positive results were found. The benefits will be modelled stochastically as reduction in DALYs and monetized in Euro's following reference prices for DALYs. If the balance of total costs and benefits is positive, this will lend support to implementation of these preventive interventions at the societal level. Ultimately, the SCBA will provide guidance to policy makers on the most optimal intervention measures to reduce the disease burden of T. gondii in the Netherlands.

The Economic Impact of the Introduction of Biosimilars in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] entails a high economic burden to society. We aimed to estimate the current and future impact of the introduction of biosimilars for infliximab on IBD-related health care costs. METHODS: We designed a stochastic economic model to simulate the introduction of biosimilars in IBD, using a 5-year time horizon, based on the Dutch situation. Prevalence data on ulcerative colitis [UC] and Crohn's disease [CD] and IBD-related health care costs data were used as input. Assumptions were made on price reductions of anti-tumour necrosis factor [TNF] therapy, increase of anti-TNF prescription rate, and development of hospitalization costs. The base case scenario included a gradual decrease in prices of biosimilars up to 60%, a gradual decrease in prices of original anti-TNF compounds up to 50%, and an annual increase of anti-TNF prescription rate of 1%, and this was compared with no introduction of biosimilars. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: For the base case, cost savings over the total of 5 years were on average €9,850 per CD patient and €2,250 per UC patient, yielding in €493 million total cost savings [a reduction of 28%] for The Netherlands. Results were predominantly determined by price reduction of anti-TNF therapy, threshold price reduction at which physicians switch patients towards biosimilars and the extent to which switching will take place. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of biosimilars for infliximab can be expected to have a major impact on the cost profile of IBD. The economic impact will depend on local pricing, procurement policies and the physician's willingness to switch patients to biosimilars.

Targeted outreach hepatitis B vaccination program in high-risk adults: The fundamental challenge of the last mile.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the on-going decentralised targeted hepatitis B vaccination program for behavioural high-risk groups operated by regional public health services in the Netherlands since 1-November-2002. Target groups for free vaccination are men having sex with men (MSM), commercial sex workers (CSW) and hard drug users (HDU). Heterosexuals with a high partner change rate (HRP) were included until 1-November-2007. METHODS: Based on participant, vaccination and serology data collected up to 31-December-2012, the number of participants and program costs were estimated. Observed anti-HBc prevalence was used to estimate the probability of susceptible individuals per risk-group to become infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) in their remaining life. We distinguished two time-periods: 2002-2006 and 2007-2012, representing different recruitment strategies and target groups. Correcting for observed vaccination compliance, the number of future HBV-infections avoided was estimated per risk-group. By combining these numbers with estimates of life-years lost, quality-of-life losses and healthcare costs of HBV-infections - as obtained from a Markov model-, the benefit of the program was estimated for each risk-group separately. RESULTS: The overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the program was €30,400/QALY gained, with effects and costs discounted at 1.5% and 4%, respectively. The program was more cost-effective in the first period (€24,200/QALY) than in the second period (€42,400/QALY). In particular, the cost-effectiveness for MSM decreased from €20,700/QALY to €47,700/QALY. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This decentralised targeted HBV-vaccination program is a cost-effective intervention in certain unvaccinated high-risk adults. Saturation within the risk-groups, participation of individuals with less risky behaviour, and increased recruitment investments in the second period made the program less cost-effective over time. The project should therefore discus how to reduce costs per risk-group, increase effects or when to integrate the vaccination in regular healthcare.

Smoking is Associated with Higher Disease-related Costs and Lower Health-related Quality of Life in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Smoking affects the course of inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. We aimed to study the impact of smoking on IBD-specific costs and health-related quality-of-life [HrQoL] among adults with Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC]. METHODS: A large cohort of IBD patients was prospectively followed during 1 year using 3-monthly questionnaires on smoking status, health resources, disease activity and HrQoL. Costs were calculated by multiplying used resources with corresponding unit prices. Healthcare costs, patient costs, productivity losses, disease course items and HrQoL were compared between smokers, never-smokers and ex-smokers, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: In total, 3030 patients [1558 CD, 1054 UC, 418 IBD-unknown] were enrolled; 16% smoked at baseline. In CD, disease course was more severe among smokers. Smoking was associated with > 30% higher annual societal costs in IBD (€7,905 [95% confidence interval €6,234 - €9,864] vs €6,017 [€5,186 - €6,946] in never-smokers and €5,710 [€4,687 - €6,878] in ex-smokers, p = 0.06 and p = 0.04, respectively). In CD, smoking patients generated the highest societal costs, primarily driven by the use of anti-tumour necrosis factor compounds. In UC, societal costs of smoking patients were comparable to those of non-smokers. Societal costs of IBD patients who quitted smoking > 5 years before inclusion were lower than in patients who quitted within the past 5 years (€ 5,135 [95% CI €4,122 - €6,303] vs €9,342 [€6,010 - €12,788], p = 0.01). In both CD and UC, smoking was associated with a lower HrQoL. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is associated with higher societal costs and lower HrQoL in IBD patients. Smoking cessation may result in considerably lower societal costs.

Smoking is Associated With Extra-intestinal Manifestations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Smoking affects the course of disease in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD). We aimed to study the association between smoking and extra-intestinal manifestations (EIMs) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). METHODS: We cross-sectionally explored the association between smoking and EIMs in IBD in three cohort studies: (1) the COIN study, designed to estimate healthcare expenditures in IBD; (2) the Groningen study, focused on cigarette smoke exposure and disease behaviour in IBD; and (3) the JOINT study, evaluating joint and back manifestations in IBD. RESULTS: In the COIN, Groningen and JOINT cohorts, 3030, 797 and 225 patients were enrolled, of whom 16, 24 and 23.5% were current smokers, respectively. Chronic skin disorders and joint manifestations were more prevalent in smoking IBD patients than in non-smokers (COIN, 39.1 vs 29.8%, p <0.01; Groningen, 41.7 vs 30.0%, p <0.01) in both CD and UC. In the JOINT cohort, smoking was more prevalent in IBD patients with joint manifestations than in those without (30.3 vs 13.0%, p <0.01). EIMs appeared to be more prevalent in high- than in low-exposure smokers (56.0 vs 37.1%, p = 0.10). After smoking cessation, the prevalence of EIMs in IBD patients rapidly decreased towards levels found in never smokers (lag time: COIN cohort, 1-2 years; Groningen cohort, within 1 year). CONCLUSIONS: There is a robust dose-dependent association between active smoking and EIMs in both CD and UC patients. Smoking cessation was found to result in a rapid reduction of EIM prevalence to levels encountered in never smokers.

Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for classical swine fever epidemics in The Netherlands.

We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.

Simulated epidemiological and economic effects of measures to reduce piglet supply during a classical swine fever epidemic in The Netherlands.

The effects of additional measures adopted during a classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic to reduce piglet supply, namely, an insemination ban, abortion of sows and killing of young piglets, are studied using a stochastic, spatial, dynamic epidemiological simulation model of the pig sector in The Netherlands. The piglet supply derived from the epidemiological model is used as input for a sector-level market and trade model that simulates the pig market in The Netherlands. Changes in the economic welfare of different stakeholders are measured, as is the net welfare effect for the economy in The Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis is performed on parameters such as destruction capacity constraints and the duration of the high-risk period. Additional measures to reduce piglet supply are found to have no epidemiological impact, but they do involve larger economic welfare changes for stakeholders and a larger net welfare loss for the economy in The Netherlands. These findings do not support the use of the additional measures. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that such measures do not solve the problem of a shortage in rendering capacities.

Assessing the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands.

Rotarix and RotaTeq are both prophylactic vaccines against rotavirus (RV) gastroenteritis. In 2006, these vaccines obtained a European license and because RV infections are widespread among Dutch children inclusion of these vaccines in the Dutch National Immunization Program (NIP) should be considered. Using an evaluation model for introducing a new vaccine, we assessed the introduction of universal RV vaccination in the Netherlands. Although post-marketing surveillance will be essential, both RV vaccines have proven to be safe and effective. Furthermore, the vaccines will prevent most of the RV-related hospitalizations and deaths. However, for the Netherlands with the current vaccine prices, universal RV vaccination is not expected to be cost-effective.

Towards an integrated approach in supporting microbiological food safety decisions.

Decisions on food safety involve consideration of a wide range of concerns including the public health impact of foodborne illness, the economic importance of the agricultural sector and the food industry, and the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions. To support such decisions, we propose an integrated scientific approach combining veterinary and medical epidemiology, risk assessment for the farm-to-fork food chain as well as agricultural and health economy. Scientific advice is relevant in all stages of the policy cycle: to assess the magnitude of the food safety problem, to define the priorities for action, to establish the causes for the problem, to choose between different control options, to define targets along the food chain and to measure success.