Influence of endometrial thickness on pregnancy rates in modified natural cycle frozen-thawed embryo transfer.

INTRODUCTION: Pregnancy after frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) is a multifactorial process. Although embryo quality is a key factor in determining pregnancy, other factors, including maternal determinants, are also considered to be predictive. Even though an association between endometrial thickness measured by transvaginal ultrasound and pregnancy rates has been reported in patients undergoing various assisted reproductive technology treatments, whether endometrial thickness predicts achieving pregnancy after natural cycle FET (NC-FET) remains unclear. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this cohort study, 463 patients allocated to the modified NC-FET (mNC-FET) arm of a previously published randomized controlled trial were included. Monitoring in mNC-FET cycles consisted of regular ultrasound scans, measuring both dominant follicle and endometrial thickness. When the dominant follicle reached a size of 16-20 mm, an injection of human chorionic gonadotrophin was administered and embryo thawing and transfer planned. No minimal endometrial thickness was defined below which transfer was to be deferred. The primary endpoint was ongoing pregnancy rate. RESULTS: Overall, the ongoing pregnancy rate per started FET cycle was 12.5%. Multivariate regression analyses showed that embryo quality was the only significant predictor for ongoing pregnancy. Mean endometrial thickness did not differ between patients achieving ongoing pregnancy and those who did not (9.0 vs. 8.8 mm, p = 0.4). Comparable results were obtained with regard to clinical pregnancy, live birth and miscarriage rates. The area under the receiver operator curve was 0.5, indicating little discriminatory value of endometrial thickness. CONCLUSIONS: Given that endometrial thickness was not found to be predictive of pregnancy after mNC-FET, cancellation based on endometrial thickness alone may not be justified.

Individualized versus standard FSH dosing in women starting IVF/ICSI: an RCT. Part 1: The predicted poor responder.

STUDY QUESTION: Does an increased FSH dose result in higher cumulative live birth rates in women with a predicted poor ovarian response, apparent from a low antral follicle count (AFC), scheduled for IVF or ICSI? SUMMARY ANSWER: In women with a predicted poor ovarian response (AFC < 11) undergoing IVF/ICSI, an increased FSH dose (225/450 IU/day) does not improve cumulative live birth rates as compared to a standard dose (150 IU/day). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In women scheduled for IVF/ICSI, an ovarian reserve test (ORT) can predict ovarian response to stimulation. The FSH starting dose is often adjusted based on the ORT from the belief that it will improve live birth rates. However, the existing RCTs on this topic, most of which show no benefit, are underpowered. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Between May 2011 and May 2014, we performed an open-label multicentre RCT in women with an AFC < 11 (Dutch Trial Register NTR2657). The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy achieved within 18 months after randomization and resulting in a live birth. We needed 300 women to assess whether an increased dose strategy would increase the cumulative live birth rate from 25 to 40% (two-sided alpha-error 0.05, power 80%). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women with an AFC ≤ 7 were randomized to an FSH dose of 450 IU/day or 150 IU/day, and women with an AFC 8-10 were randomized to 225 IU or 150 IU/day. In the standard group, dose adjustment was allowed in subsequent cycles based on pre-specified criteria. Both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the strategies were evaluated from an intention-to-treat perspective. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In total, 511 women were randomized, 234 with an AFC ≤ 7 and 277 with an AFC 8-10. The cumulative live birth rate for increased versus standard dosing was 42.4% (106/250) versus 44.8% (117/261), respectively [relative risk (RR): 0.95 (95%CI, 0.78-1.15), P = 0.58]. As an increased dose strategy was more expensive [delta costs/woman: €1099 (95%CI, 562-1591)], standard FSH dosing was the dominant strategy in our economic analysis. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Despite our training programme, the AFC might have suffered from inter-observer variation. As this open study permitted small dose adjustments between cycles, potential selective cancelling of cycles in women treated with 150 IU could have influenced the cumulative results. However, since first cycle live birth rates point in the same direction we consider it unlikely that the open design masked a potential benefit for the individualized strategy. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Since an increased dose in women scheduled for IVF/ICSI with a predicted poor response (AFC < 11) does not improve live birth rates and is more expensive, we recommend using a standard dose of 150 IU/day in these women. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW number 171102020). T.C.T., H.L.T. and S.C.O. received an unrestricted personal grant from Merck BV. H.R.V. receives monetary compensation as a member on an external advisory board for Ferring pharmaceutical BV. B.W.J.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy for OvsEva, Merck and Guerbet. F.J.M.B. receives monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Ferring pharmaceutics BV (the Netherlands) and Merck Serono (the Netherlands) for consultancy work for Gedeon Richter (Belgium) and Roche Diagnostics on automated AMH assay development (Switzerland) and for a research cooperation with Ansh Labs (USA). All other authors have nothing to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Registered at the ICMJE-recognized Dutch Trial Registry (www.trialregister.nl). Registration number NTR2657. TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE: 20 December 2010. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT: 12 May 2011.