Beyond ecosystem modeling: A roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure for ecological data-model integration.

In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks to informing models with observations have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of available data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects ecosystem modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap to community cyberinfrastructure development that can reduce the divisions between empirical research and modeling and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data-model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, and transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, including both modelers and empiricists. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying foundations of community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model-data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community-driven approach is a key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century.

Changes in autumn senescence in northern hemisphere deciduous trees: a meta-analysis of autumn phenology studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Many individual studies have shown that the timing of leaf senescence in boreal and temperate deciduous forests in the northern hemisphere is influenced by rising temperatures, but there is limited consensus on the magnitude, direction and spatial extent of this relationship. METHODS: A meta-analysis was conducted of published studies from the peer-reviewed literature that reported autumn senescence dates for deciduous trees in the northern hemisphere, encompassing 64 publications with observations ranging from 1931 to 2010. KEY RESULTS: Among the meteorological measurements examined, October temperatures were the strongest predictors of date of senescence, followed by cooling degree-days, latitude, photoperiod and, lastly, total monthly precipitation, although the strength of the relationships differed between high- and low-latitude sites. Autumn leaf senescence has been significantly more delayed at low (25° to 49°N) than high (50° to 70°N) latitudes across the northern hemisphere, with senescence across high-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of photoperiod and low-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of temperature. Delays in leaf senescence over time were stronger in North America compared with Europe and Asia. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that leaf senescence has been delayed over time and in response to temperature, although low-latitude sites show significantly stronger delays in senescence over time than high-latitude sites. While temperature alone may be a reasonable predictor of the date of leaf senescence when examining a broad suite of sites, it is important to consider that temperature-induced changes in senescence at high-latitude sites are likely to be constrained by the influence of photoperiod. Ecosystem-level differences in the mechanisms that control the timing of leaf senescence may affect both plant community interactions and ecosystem carbon storage as global temperatures increase over the next century.

Nonstructural carbon in woody plants.

Nonstructural carbon (NSC) provides the carbon and energy for plant growth and survival. In woody plants, fundamental questions about NSC remain unresolved: Is NSC storage an active or passive process? Do older NSC reserves remain accessible to the plant? How is NSC depletion related to mortality risk? Herein we review conceptual and mathematical models of NSC dynamics, recent observations and experiments at the organismal scale, and advances in plant physiology that have provided a better understanding of the dynamics of woody plant NSC. Plants preferentially use new carbon but can access decade-old carbon when the plant is stressed or physically damaged. In addition to serving as a carbon and energy source, NSC plays important roles in phloem transport, osmoregulation, and cold tolerance, but how plants regulate these competing roles and NSC depletion remains elusive. Moving forward requires greater synthesis of models and data and integration across scales from -omics to ecology.