Failure of T-cell homeostasis preceding AIDS in HIV-1 infection. The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

We and others have postulated that a constant number of T lymphocytes is normally maintained without regard to CD4+ or CD8+ phenotype ('blind' T-cell homeostasis). Here we confirm essentially constant T-cell levels (despite marked decline in CD4+ T cells and increase in CD8+ T cells) in homosexual men with incident human immunodeficiency virus, type 1 (HIV-1), infection who remained free of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) for up to eight years after seroconversion. In contrast, seroconverters who developed AIDS exhibited rapidly declining T cells (both CD4+ and CD8+) for approximately two years before AIDS, independent of the time between seroconversion and AIDS, suggesting that homeostasis failure is an important landmark in HIV disease progression. Given the high rate of T-cell turnover in HIV-1 infection, blind T-cell homeostasis may contribute to HIV pathogenesis through a CD8+ T lymphocytosis that interferes with regeneration of lost CD4+ T cells.

Latent infection of CD4+ T cells provides a mechanism for lifelong persistence of HIV-1, even in patients on effective combination therapy.

Combination therapy for HIV-1 infection can reduce plasma virus to undetectable levels, indicating that prolonged treatment might eradicate the infection. However, HIV-1 can persist in a latent form in resting CD4+ T cells. We measured the decay rate of this latent reservoir in 34 treated adults whose plasma virus levels were undetectable. The mean half-life of the latent reservoir was very long (43.9 months). If the latent reservoir consists of only 1 x 10(5) cells, eradication could take as long as 60 years. Thus, latent infection of resting CD4+ T cells provides a mechanism for lifelong persistence of HIV-1, even in patients on effective anti-retroviral therapy.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 population genetics and adaptation in newly infected individuals.

Studies on human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) diversity are critical for understanding viral pathogenesis and the emergence of immune escape variants and for design of vaccine strategies. To investigate HIV-1 population genetics, we used single-genome sequencing to obtain pro-pol and env sequences from longitudinal samples (n = 93) from 14 acutely or recently infected patients. The first available sample after infection for 12/14 patients revealed HIV-1 populations with low genetic diversity, consistent with transmission or outgrowth of a single variant. In contrast, two patients showed high diversity and coexistence of distinct virus populations in samples collected days after a nonreactive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay or indeterminate Western blot, consistent with transmission or outgrowth of multiple variants. Comparison of PR and RT sequences from the first sample for all patients with the consensus subgroup B sequence revealed that nearly all nonsynonymous differences were confined to identified cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes. For HLA-typed patients, mutations compared to the consensus in transmitted variants were found in epitopes that would not be recognized by the patient's major histocompatibility complex type. Reversion of transmitted mutations was rarely seen over the study interval (up to 5 years). These data indicate that acute subtype B HIV-1 infection usually results from transmission or outgrowth of single viral variants carrying mutations in CTL epitopes that were selected prior to transmission either in the donor or in a previous donor and that reversion of these mutations can be very slow. These results have important implications for vaccine strategies because they imply that some HLA alleles could be compromised in newly acquired HIV infections.

Higher risk of AIDS or death in patients with lower CD4 cell counts after virally suppressive HAART.

BACKGROUND: The clinical implications of a failure to achieve high CD4 cell counts while receiving virally suppressive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) are uncertain. METHODS: We analysed data from HIV-infected men participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) to elucidate associations between CD4 cell counts achieved during virally suppressive HAART and risks of AIDS or death. Inclusion criteria were: CD4 cell count <200 cells/microL before HAART initiation; >or=2 viral load (VL) determinations after HAART initiation; and sustained viral suppression, defined as all VL <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL, but allowing a single VL of 50-1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-one men were included; median age was 42 years. After first VL <50 copies/mL, six participants had a new AIDS diagnosis and seven died. The median CD4 cell count change/year (cells/microL) after first VL <50 copies/mL was zero among patients who either developed AIDS or died vs. 39 among those who did not meet either endpoint (P=0.119). After controlling for time from HAART initiation to first VL <50 copies/mL, age at first VL <50 copies/mL, history of AIDS and antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience before HAART, the hazard ratio for AIDS or death at CD4 cell count of 350 cells/microL was 10.7 (P=0.013), and at CD4 cell count of 201-350 vs. >350 cells/microL was 8.54 (P=0.014). CONCLUSION: In this cohort, lower CD4 cell count at the time of viral suppression was associated with increased risk of AIDS or death.

Clonal analysis of T lymphocytes in the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Evidence for an abnormality affecting individual helper and suppressor T cells.

Purified helper-inducer (T4+) and suppressor-cytotoxic (T8+) lymphocytes from eight patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and eight healthy heterosexual donors were examined by limiting dilution analysis for their ability to be clonally expanded. It was demonstrated that viable T4+ and T8+ lymphocytes from patients with AIDS had markedly reduced proportions of clonable cells compared to the healthy donors (T4 = 1:255 vs. 1:34, P = 0.06; T8 = 1:355 vs. 1:55, P = 0.01). However, the cloned T cells that were obtained from the patients with AIDS demonstrated normal proliferation in response to phytohemagglutinin and alloantigen, and normal ability to help or suppress pokeweed mitogen-driven IgG synthesis. These results strongly suggest that, in addition to a quantitative diminution of T4+ lymphocytes in AIDS, there is an intrinsic functional defect in the surviving T4+ and T8+ lymphocytes, which is reflected by a severe decrease in their potential for clonal expansion.

A stable latent reservoir for HIV-1 in resting CD4(+) T lymphocytes in infected children.

HIV-1 persists in a latent state in resting CD4(+) T lymphocytes of infected adults despite prolonged highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). To determine whether a latent reservoir for HIV-1 exists in infected children, we performed a quantitative viral culture assay on highly purified resting CD4(+) T cells from 21 children with perinatally acquired infection. Replication-competent HIV-1 was recovered from all 18 children from whom sufficient cells were obtained. The frequency of latently infected resting CD4(+) T cells directly correlated with plasma virus levels, suggesting that in children with ongoing viral replication, most latently infected cells are in the labile preintegration state of latency. However, in each of 7 children who had suppression of viral replication to undetectable levels for 1-3 years on HAART, latent replication-competent HIV-1 persisted with little decay, owing to a stable reservoir of infected cells in the postintegration stage of latency. Drug-resistance mutations generated by previous nonsuppressive regimens persisted in this compartment despite more than 1 year of fully suppressive HAART, rendering untenable the idea of recycling drugs that were part of failed regimens. Thus the latent reservoir for HIV-1 in resting CD4(+) T cells will be a major obstacle to HIV-1 eradication in children.

Heterozygosity for a defective gene for CC chemokine receptor 5 is not the sole determinant for the immunologic and virologic phenotype of HIV-infected long-term nonprogressors.

HIV-1-infected long-term nonprogressors are a heterogeneous group of individuals with regard to immunologic and virologic markers of HIV-1 disease. CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) has recently been identified as an important coreceptor for HIV-1 entry into CD4+ T cells. A mutant allele of CCR5 confers a high degree of resistance to HIV-1 infection in homozygous individuals and partial protection against HIV disease progression in heterozygotes. The frequency of CCR5 heterozygotes is increased among HIV-1- infected long-term nonprogressors compared with progressors; however, the host defense mechanisms responsible for nonprogression in CCR5 heterozygotes are unknown. We hypothesized that nonprogressors who were heterozygous for the mutant CCR5 gene might define a subgroup of nonprogressors with higher CD4+ T cell counts and lower viral load compared with CCR5 wild-type nonprogressors. However, in a cohort of 33 HIV-1-infected long-term nonprogressors, those who were heterozygous for the mutant CCR5 gene were indistinguishable from CCR5 wild-type nonprogressors with regard to all measured immunologic and virologic parameters. Although epidemiologic data support a role for the mutant CCR5 allele in the determination of the state of long-term nonprogression in some HIV-1- infected individuals, it is not the only determinant. Furthermore, long-term nonprogressors with the wild-type CCR5 genotype are indistinguishable from heterozygotes from an immunologic and virologic standpoint.

Reduced risk of AIDS lymphoma in individuals heterozygous for the CCR5-delta32 mutation.

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) has been increasing in frequency in the industrialized world, but the environmental and genetic factors that contribute to susceptibility are not known. B-cell lymphomas represent a major cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected individuals. The identification of a deletion in the CCR5 chemokine receptor gene that alters the risk for infection and progression to AIDS led us to examine a potential role of this gene in AIDS lymphoma. A matched case-control analysis was performed using all eligible NHL cases in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Patients were matched for age, study center, time AIDS-free, and slope of the CD4+ T-cell decline. The CCR5-delta32 allele was found to be associated with a 3-fold lower risk of NHL among individuals after controlling for time of infection and progression toward AIDS. The CCR5 gene was not associated with a difference in risk for Kaposi's sarcoma, another common malignancy in AIDS patients, or opportunistic infections. Costimulation of normal phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate-treated B cells with the CCR5 ligand RANTES induced a proliferative response, indicating that RANTES is a mitogen for B cells. Taken together, these findings suggest that the CCR5 gene plays a role in the risk of NHL in HIV-infected patients, perhaps through a mechanism involving a decreased response of B cells to the mitogenic activity of RANTES.

Increased mortality associated with vitamin A deficiency during human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether plasma vitamin A levels are associated with immunologic status and clinical outcome during human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analysis of vitamin A levels, CD4 T cells, complete blood cell count, and serologic markers for liver disease in a random subsample of 179 subjects from a cohort of more than 2000 intravenous drug users with longitudinal follow-up to determine survival. RESULTS: Mean (+/- SE) follow-up time was 22.8 +/- 1.1 months, and 15 subjects died during follow-up. More than 15% of the HIV-1-seropositive individuals had plasma vitamin A levels less than 1.05 mumol/L, a level consistent with vitamin A deficiency. The HIV-1-seropositive individuals had lower mean plasma vitamin A levels than HIV-1-seronegative individuals (P < .001). Vitamin A deficiency was associated with lower CD4 levels among both seronegative individuals (P < .05) and seropositive individuals (P < .05). In the HIV-seropositive participants, vitamin A deficiency was associated with increased mortality (relative risk = 6.3; 95% confidence interval, 2.1 to 18.6). CONCLUSION: Vitamin A deficiency may be common during HIV-1 infection, and vitamin A deficiency is associated with decreased circulating CD4 T cells and increased mortality. Vitamin A is an essential micronutrient for normal immune function, and vitamin A deficiency seems to be an important risk factor for disease progression during HIV-1 infection.

Direct comparison of the relationship between clinical outcome and change in CD4+ lymphocytes in human immunodeficiency virus-positive homosexual men and injecting drug users.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: To compare rates of decline of CD4+ lymphocytes among human immunodeficiency virus-positive homosexual men and injecting drug users, we followed up prevalent human immunodeficiency virus-positive homosexual men and current or former injecting drug users from February 1988 through August 1991. Subjects were free of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome at study entry and had semiannual clinical and laboratory evaluation, including measurement of T-cell subsets, under common protocols. Initial levels and rates of change of CD4+ lymphocyte counts were compared according to cohort membership and clinical progression, defined by the development of thrush or an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome--defining illness. Median follow-up was 30 months for both cohorts. RESULTS: At study entry, homosexual men had lower absolute numbers of circulating CD4+ lymphocytes than did injecting drug users (459/microL [0.46 x 10(9)/L] vs 509/microL, respectively). During follow-up, homosexual men exhibited a faster decline in CD4+ lymphocyte counts as well as more frequent development of HIV-related symptoms (thrush or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome). In both cohorts, initial levels of CD4+ lymphocytes and rates of decline in these cells were strongly associated with progression of disease, defined as remaining asymptomatic, onset of thrush, or onset of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Once homosexual men and injecting drug users were stratified by disease progression, their initial levels and rates of decline of CD4+ lymphocyte counts were similar. Thus, crude differences between the two study groups largely resulted from differences in development of clinical symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In these cohorts of homosexual men and injecting drug users, clinical outcome was much more important than risk group membership in determining changes in CD4+ lymphocyte numbers. The close similarity between the groups also suggests that drug use, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status play a minor role in the progression of human immunodeficiency virus infection.

Strong association between failure of T cell homeostasis and the syncytium-inducing phenotype among HIV-1-infected men in the Amsterdam Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between T cell homeostasis and its failure and 1.) the occurrence of AIDS and 2.) the switch from the non-syncytium-inducing (NSI) to the syncytium-inducing (SI) HIV virus phenotype. METHODS: For each of 325 homosexual men in the Amsterdam Cohort Study, the slope of the CD3 T cell count versus time was determined. The timing (T cell inflection point (IP)) and magnitude of the change in slope were correlated with the time of the NSI/SI switch. RESULTS: Median T cell slopes before the IP (pre-IP) were nearly zero regardless of whether AIDS occurred; the slopes after the IP (post-IP) were associated with clinical outcomes, with a median annual decline of 17.6% among those who developed AIDS and increase of 4.6% in those remaining AIDS free. Among subjects considered to have a true IP (decline > 8.2%/year post-IP), the times of the SI switch and the IP slope were highly correlated (r = 0.65); among those with AIDS, the SI switch preceded the IP by a median of 0.63 years. CONCLUSION: These results support the concept of blind T cell homeostasis and also suggest that HIV-1 SI variants play an important role in the failure of T cell homeostasis.

Elevated serum levels of neopterin but not beta 2-microglobulin in HIV-1-seronegative injecting drug users.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether injecting drug use is associated with cellular immune activation in the absence of HIV-1 infection. DESIGN: Serum levels of neopterin and beta 2-microglobulin (beta 2M) were measured cross-sectionally in injecting drug users (IDU) enrolled in a prospective study. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Two hundred and nineteen HIV-1-seronegative, healthy heterosexual black male IDU aged 21-49 years were selected from the Baltimore-based AIDS Linked to Intravenous Experiences (ALIVE) study. The possibility of including subjects in the process of seroconverting to HIV-1 was minimized by restricting the study to individuals who remained seronegative 6 months after the specimens used for analysis were collected. RESULTS: Mean serum beta 2M levels were not statistically different among groups of IDU whose usual pattern of injection was at least once a day for up to 3 consecutive days (daily users; n = 65), less than once per day (less-than-daily users; n = 75), or not at all for at least 2 weeks (non-recent users; n = 79). In contrast, the mean neopterin level was significantly (P = 0.039) greater in daily users (6.17 nmol/l) than in the other two groups (5.07 and 5.19 nmol/l, respectively, which were not statistically different). These results were not affected, by the frequency of using borrowed non-sterile works or by other demographic and risk factor variables. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent injecting drug use may be independently associated with a small elevation of serum neopterin levels, but not beta 2M levels. Although the occurrence of a type I error in this sample cannot be completely excluded, serum neopterin may be more sensitive than serum beta 2M in detecting activation of immunocompetent cells associated with frequent injecting drug use in this population.

The influence of drug use patterns on the rate of CD4+ lymphocyte decline among HIV-1-infected injecting drug users.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between various injecting drug use patterns and the rate of CD4+ lymphocyte decline in HIV-1-infected injecting drug users in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. METHODS: A cohort of 605 HIV-1-infected injecting drug users was recruited between 1988 and early 1989 in East Baltimore using extensive community outreach techniques. The participants were interviewed semi-annually to collect information on drug use practices. The outcome measure of interest was the rate of CD4+ lymphocyte decline between pairs of CD4+ lymphocyte counts. A mixed model was used to evaluate the relationship between the change in CD4+ lymphocyte count per month and previous CD4+ lymphocyte count and various drug use variables. RESULTS: The 605 HIV-infected injecting drug users had a median initial CD4+ lymphocyte count of 513 cells x 10(6)/l. Using 3209 paired observations, the mean change in CD4+ lymphocyte count was -3.2 cells x 10(6)/l per month. The rate of decline was higher in those with a higher level of CD4+ lymphocytes (P < 0.01) and length of drug use (P < 0.01), but did not vary by injection frequency or injection intensity of specific drug types. Although animal studies have suggested that the pattern of drug administration (continuous versus intermittent) and episodes of withdrawal or overdose might impact the rate of CD4+ lymphocyte decline, this was not observed in the present study. CONCLUSION: Patterns of injecting drug use, based on self-report, were not associated with the rate of decline in CD4+ lymphocytes.

Prognostic value of plasma HIV RNA in the natural history of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, cytomegalovirus and Mycobacterium avium complex. Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To use follow-up on untreated HIV-positive men to assess the prognostic information provided by baseline data on plasma HIV RNA, CD4 cell count, age, and HIV-related symptom status, separately for three specific AIDS-defining illnesses: Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), cytomegalovirus (CMV), and Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC). METHODS: The study population were 734 HIV-positive homosexual men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, with follow-up (1984-1985 through mid-1988) restricted to the antiretroviral treatment-free and prophylaxis-free era. Baseline marker values were categorized and assessed as predictor variables in separate time-to-event analyses for each of the three specific outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 138 cases of PCP, 25 cases of CMV, and 25 cases of MAC were observed. For PCP and CMV, higher categories of HIV RNA and lower categories of CD4 cell count were associated with increased risk relative to the respective reference groups. For MAC, oral candidiasis or fever and elevated HIV RNA at baseline were the primary risk factors. Further analysis highlighted the importance of monitoring HIV RNA levels in addition to CD4 cell counts when evaluating patients' risk of developing PCP. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of treatment, plasma HIV RNA levels provide prognostic information about the risk of these three specific AIDS-defining illnesses, independently of the CD4 cell count. These data provide a useful reference as researchers investigate changing patterns in the incidence and predictors of opportunistic infections in the era of increasingly active antiretroviral therapies.

Immunologic and virologic response to highly active antiretroviral therapy in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate prior antiretroviral therapy experience and host characteristics as determinants of immunologic and virologic response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: We studied 397 men from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) who initiated HAART between October 1995 and March 1999. CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA responses to HAART were measured at the first visit following HAART (short-term) and extending from the first visit to approximately 33 months after HAART (long-term). Prior antiretroviral experience was classified into three groups based on antiretroviral therapy use during the 5 years prior to HAART. Age, race and host genetic characteristics also were assessed for their effects on treatment response. RESULTS: Better short- and long-term CD4 cell and HIV-1 RNA responses were observed in the treatment-naive users. Intermittently and consistently experienced users did not significantly differ in response. Whereas race did not independently affect response, among those initiating HAART with > 400 x 10(6) CD4 cells/l, younger age and the Delta32 CCR5 genotype were associated with a better short-term CD4 cell response. There was a suggestion that having the protective CCR5 genotype also was associated with a better long-term CD4 cell response. CONCLUSION: Immunologic and virologic response to HAART was stronger in individuals who had no prior experience with the antiretroviral therapy agents subsequently included in their initial HAART regimen. Age, level of immune competence and immunogenetics appeared to play a role in the subsequent immune reconstitution following use of highly effective HIV therapy.

Changes in T and non-T lymphocyte subsets following seroconversion to HIV-1: stable CD3+ and declining CD3- populations suggest regulatory responses linked to loss of CD4 lymphocytes. The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

We investigated changes in lymphocyte subsets (total, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, as well as non-T cells) associated with human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) seroconversion in 321 homosexual or bisexual men in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS). These subjects had serial lymphocyte characterizations for up to 4 years before and 5 years after seroconversion. CD4+ lymphocyte levels declined rapidly in the first 18 months following seroconversion and less rapidly thereafter, while CD8 lymphocytes increased with similar kinetics. In contrast, total T (CD3+) lymphocytes declined only slightly in the first 18 months following seroconversion, and then remained stable. These results support the hypothesis of physiologic regulation of the total number of circulating T cells, such that lost CD4+ lymphocytes are replaced by newly generated CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes; over time, continued loss of CD4+ lymphocytes due to HIV-1 infection would result in net replacement of lost CD4+ lymphocytes with CD8+ lymphocytes. Non-T (CD3-) lymphocytes also declined after seroconversion, and this decline paralleled that of CD4+ lymphocytes. Thus, changes in both T and non-T lymphocytes after HIV-1 seroconversion may reflect the operation of homeostatic or regulatory mechanisms. Whether these mechanisms contribute to the development of immune deficiency requires further study.

Influence of HIV-1 infection and cigarette smoking on leukocyte profiles in homosexual men. The Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.

The interaction between the effects of HIV-1 infection and cigarette smoking on leukocyte profiles was studied in 307 HIV-1 seroconverters in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS). Longitudinal data for white blood cell (WBC) counts, WBC differentials, T cell subsets, and smoking behavior were collected semiannually for up to 7 years. Prior to seroconversion, total WBC count increased in direct proportion to daily cigarette consumption, but this effect disappeared within 3 years of seroconversion. Analyses of WBC subsets (lymphocytes, monocytes, and granulocytes) and lymphocyte subsets (CD4+, CD8+ and non-T[CD3-]) showed that smoking had only minor effects on the proportions of these cells. In contrast, HIV-1 seroconversion was associated with a dramatic decrease in CD4+ lymphocyte percentage, a large increase in CD8+ lymphocyte percentage, a small increase in total lymphocyte percentage, and small decreases in the non-T lymphocyte and granulocyte percentages. These findings indicate that the effect of smoking on CD4 cell counts is (a) nonspecific, (b) maximal in seronegative individuals; and (c) lost by 3 years after seroconversion. Although the mechanism of the loss of smoking-induced leukocytosis after seroconversion remains to be determined, our results suggest that the effects of smoking are not likely to be important in the clinical use of leukocyte measurements, including measurements of CD4 lymphocytes, in individuals who have been HIV-1 seropositive for more than 3 years.

Immune serum markers and CD4 cell counts in HIV-infected intravenous drug users.

We examined the association of three serum immune markers with CD4 cell counts in a large cohort of i.v. drug users with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Levels of beta 2-microglobulin and neopterin were significantly elevated in HIV-infected subjects and increased in association with decline in CD4 cell counts (all p less than 0.001). Serum IgA levels in HIV-seropositive individuals were significantly elevated only when the CD4 cell count was less than 200/microliters (p less than 0.001). After controlling for HIV status and CD4 count, recent history of hepatitis was associated with significantly higher beta 2-microglobulin (p = 0.028) and marginally higher neopterin (p = 0.052) levels. There was no association of race, gender, or drug use patterns with levels of serum immune markers after controlling for HIV status and CD4 count. These data indicate that immune activation is coupled with immunosuppression in HIV-infected i.v. drug users. In addition, beta 2-microglobulin and neopterin levels are elevated in persons with a recent history of hepatitis but not in those with recent non-AIDS-defining bacterial infections. Markers of immune activation do not vary by race, gender, or drug use patterns among i.v. drug users.

Prognostic indicators for development of AIDS among intravenous drug users.

A cohort of 544 human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) seropositive intravenous drug users (IVDUs) was recruited in 1988 and early 1989; data on laboratory markers, clinical symptoms, intravenous drug use, and demographics were collected. Forty-one IVDUs developed AIDS within 2 years of enrollment. Data were analyzed using methods of survival analysis. None of the individuals reported use of antiviral agents or Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis at baseline. A very strong (p less than 0.001) dose-response relationship was identified between CD4 cell count at baseline and the subsequent development of AIDS. In multivariate analysis, both the presence of more than one clinical HIV-1-related symptom and serum neopterin greater than 12 nmol/L showed significant associations with the relative hazard (95% confidence interval) of AIDS after controlling for CD4 of 2.9 (1.6, 5.6) and 2.0 (1.0, 3.7), respectively. In these IVDUs, serum beta 2-microglobulin did not add predictive power for progression to AIDS. The effect of clinical symptoms was stronger for high CD4 cell counts, indicating the need to monitor HIV seropositive IVDUs with both laboratory studies and clinical evaluation.

Serum soluble CD23 level correlates with subsequent development of AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

The cytokine soluble CD23 (sCD23) has been shown to act as a B cell growth factor and to be elevated in serum prior to development of AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (AIDS NHL). To further characterize the elevation of serum sCD23 in AIDS NHL patients and investigate its potential as a diagnostic test, a matched case-control study of AIDS NHL (n = 101) was nested within the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Serum sCD23 was measured in cases' and controls' serum specimens at three different time periods (0-6, 6-12, and 12-18 months) and CD4+ thresholds (0-99, 100-199, and 200-299 cells/microl) prior to the case's NHL diagnosis. Changes in serum sCD23 over time were examined in AIDS NHL cases relative to controls, and t tests were performed to determine whether cases' serum sCD23 exceeded that of controls at each time period and CD4+ threshold. Overall, cases' median serum sCD23 levels were approximately double those of controls. Serum sCD23 concentration was positively correlated with lymphocyte counts for both cases and controls. The difference in cases' and controls' serum sCD23 levels became greater as AIDS NHL diagnosis date approached: in the 18 months preceding the case's NHL diagnosis, serum sCD23 was stable in cases but dropped in controls. Although this difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05), it was not clinically significant. It is unlikely that serum sCD23 would make a useful test for AIDS NHL because the magnitude of the difference between cases and controls was small and there was no change in serum sCD23 in cases that would indicate disease.