Associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and health service disruptions in 10 countries.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported in several countries. Yet, patterns in health service disruption according to country responses remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate associations between the stringency of COVID-19 containment policies and disruptions in 31 health services in 10 low- middle- and high-income countries in 2020. METHODS: Using routine health information systems and administrative data from 10 countries (Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Haiti, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa, South Korea, and Thailand) we estimated health service disruptions for the period of April to December 2020 by dividing monthly service provision at national levels by the average service provision in the 15 months pre-COVID (January 2019-March 2020). We used the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) index and multi-level linear regression analyses to assess associations between the stringency of restrictions and health service disruptions over nine months. We extended the analysis by examining associations between 11 individual containment or closure policies and health service disruptions. Models were adjusted for COVID caseload, health service category and country GDP and included robust standard errors. FINDINGS: Chronic disease care was among the most affected services. Regression analyses revealed that a 10% increase in the mean stringency index was associated with a 3.3 percentage-point (95% CI -3.9, -2.7) reduction in relative service volumes. Among individual policies, curfews, and the presence of a state of emergency, had the largest coefficients and were associated with 14.1 (95% CI -19.6, 8.7) and 10.7 (95% CI -12.7, -8.7) percentage-point lower relative service volumes, respectively. In contrast, number of COVID-19 cases in 2020 was not associated with health service disruptions in any model. CONCLUSIONS: Although containment policies were crucial in reducing COVID-19 mortality in many contexts, it is important to consider the indirect effects of these restrictions. Strategies to improve the resilience of health systems should be designed to ensure that populations can continue accessing essential health care despite the presence of containment policies during future infectious disease outbreaks.

Student and faculty perceptions on the rapid scale-up of medical students in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is a country of over 94 million people that has a severe physician shortage with approximately only 2.5 physicians per 100,000 persons. Recently, the Ethiopian government implemented a "flood and retain" initiative to rapidly increase the quantity of physicians in Ethiopia. Consequently, medical student enrollment at Addis Ababa University (AAU) School of Medicine increased from 100 to approximately 300-400 students per class. This study evaluated the impact of the rapid scale-up in the number of medical students on the quality of medical education at AAU and the impact of the U.S. government-funded Medical Education Partnership Initiative (MEPI) grant awarded to AAU to provide resources to strengthen the quality of medical education at AAU. METHODS: Qualitative, semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with 22 key informants including faculty members, administrators and medical students at AAU. The audio recordings were transcribed verbatim and interview data were analyzed with thematic analysis. RESULTS: Four key themes emerged from the data. Overall, participants perceived a decrease in the quality of medical education at AAU due to challenges created by the rapid scale-up in the number of medical students. Positive learning environments were described as difficult to achieve due to overcrowding in classrooms and the limited numbers of textbooks. Overall, participants stated that infrastructure improvement is needed to provide adequate medical student training. The medical education initiatives implemented and funded by MEPI have provided significant resources to support the medical student curriculum but additional resources are required to accommodate a large student body. CONCLUSIONS: The unprecedented rapid scale-up of medical students has impacted multiple facets of medical education at AAU. It is important to consider the perspectives of students and faculty in order to focus future medical education policies, MEPI programming and the allocation of resources.

HIV/AIDS among pastoralists and refugees in north-east Africa: a neglected problem.

The eight member states (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda) of the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) have the largest proportions of cross-border mobile pastoralists and refugees in Africa. Although all IGAD countries have had national HIV/AIDS prevention, care and treatment programmes since the late 1980s, the IGAD Regional HIV & AIDS Partnership Program was (IRAPP) established in 2007 to mitigate the challenges of HIV among neglected pastoral and refugee communities. This article assesses vulnerability of pastoralists and refugee communities to HIV and interventions targeting these groups in the IGAD countries. Outcomes from this study may serve as a baseline for further research and to improve interventions. Published articles were accessed through web searches using PubMed and Google Scholar engines and unpublished documents were collected manually. The search terms were HIV risk behaviour, vulnerability, HIV prevalence and interventions, under the headings pastoralists, refugees, IGAD and north-east Africa for the period 2001-2014. Of the 214 documents reviewed, 78 met the inclusion criteria and were included. Most HIV/AIDS related studies focusing of pastoral communities in IGAD countries were found to be limited in scope and coverage but reveal precarious situations. Sero-prevalence among various pastoral populations ranged from 1% to 21% in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda and from 1% to 5% among refugees in Sudan, Kenya and Uganda. Socioeconomic, cultural, logistic, infrastructure and programmatic factors were found to contribute to continuing vulnerability to HIV. Interventions need to be further contextualised to the needs of those impoverished populations and integrated into national HIV/AIDS programmes. HIV/AIDS remains a major public health concern among the pastoral and refugee communities of IGAD countries. This calls for IGAD to collaborate with national and international partners in designing and implementing more effective prevention and control programmes. Furthermore, interventions must extend beyond the health sector and improve the livelihood of these populations.

ASSESSMENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF TEENAGE PREGNANCY AND ITS ASSOCIATED FACTORS AMONG TEENAGE FEMALES VISITING ASSOSA GENERAL HOSPITAL.

BACKGROUND: Teenage pregnancy is directly related to high incidence of pregnancy related complications contributing to maternal morbidity and mortality and social problems. There are no enough data on teenage pregnancy and related complications in Ethiopia and in Benishangul Gumuz region in particular. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the magnitude and factors associated with teenage pregnancy among teenage females visiting Assosa general hospital for health care services. METHODS: Facility-based quantitative cross-sectional study was carried out among 783 randomly selected teenage females using structured and pre-tested questionnaire from January to April 2014. RESULTS: Teenage pregnancy is estimated at 20.4% in this study. The median age of subjects at first sexual intercourse and at first marriage being 16 and 17 years respectively. High proportion of (46.8%) teenagers had engaged in premarital sex. Among sexually active teenage females, 46.7% experienced their first sexual encounter by coercion. Being young [AOR = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.06-0.67], single [AOR = 0.06, 95% CI = 0.03-0.12], housemaid [AOR = 3.93, 95% CI = 1.71-9.04] and use of family planning [AOR = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.20-4.75] have statistically significant association with teenage pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: A range offactors including age, marital status, level of education, occupational status, average family income and use of family planning have influence on teenage pregnancy in the study area. Behavioral change communication, strengthening school health program, empowering young women specifically the rural women, and promoting parent-children discussion on sexuality is recommended.

PATTERNS OF HYPERTENSIVE DISORDERS OF PREGNANCY AND ASSOCIATED FACTORS AT DEBRE BERHAN REFERRAL HOSPITAL, NORTH SHOA, AMHARA REGION.

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy (HDP) represent the most common medical complication in pregnancy associated with significant maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Identification of common maternal and perinatal morbidities associated with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy is important for policy makers to plan to alleviate the problem. OBJECTIVE: To assess the patterns of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and associated factors in Debre Berhan Referral Hospital. METHOD: Institution-based retrospective cross sectional study was conducted by reviewing logbooks and patients charts. RESULT: Among 8626 women who got services in the hospital 340 (3.9%)had hypertensive disorders. The proportion of HDP shows an increasing trend from 1.8% in 2011 to 5.7% in 2014. Preeclampsia accounts for 67.4% of all case followed by eclampsia which account for 27.8%. In this study, HDP was associated with 35.4% preterm delivery, 30.8% fetal death, 39.4% low birth weight, 38.4% low APGAR score and 8.5% IUGR. About 15.8% of newborns born from mothers with HDP mothers needed resuscitation and 40.1% ICU admission. Maternal death occurs in 2.5% mothers who had HDP with the case fatality rate for eclampsia being 6.67%. HDP contributed for 35% of all maternal deaths. Of all mothers with HDP, 58% were primi-gravida ladies. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of HDP shows an increasing pattern over the last years. Preeclampsia and eclampsia together take the lion-share of HDP. Primi-gravida women are affected more frequently than multi-gravida women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. HDP was associated with major adverse perinatal and maternal outcome.

DETERMINANT FACTORS OF VISUAL INSPECTION WITH ACETIC ACID (VIA) POSITIVE LESIONS AMONG HIV POSITIVE WOMEN IN MEKELLE HOSPITAL, NORTHERN ETHIOPIA: A CASE CONTROL STUDY.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the second commonest type and third cause of cancer death among women in low-income countries. Women living with HIV/AIDS are at greater risk of developing cervical cancer. The study aimed to identify the determinant factors forsuspected precancerous cervical lesions among HIV- positive women in Mekelle hospital, Ethiopia. METHODS: Anunmatched case-control study was conducted among randomly selected HIV positive women in Mekelle hospital in 2014. In Mekelle Hospital, routine screening for lesions of the cervix uteri by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) is done in HIV positive women by trained nurses. Suspicious findings are treated by cryotherapy or referred to the Gynaecologist. A number of 116 cases, who had suspicious findings on VIA, and 232 HIV-positive controls without suspicious findings on VIA were randomly selected and enrolled into the study The determinant factors for precancerous cervical lesion were analyzed using multiple logistic regression and described as adjusted odds ratio (AOR). RESULTS: HIV positive women who had CD4 cells less than 350/mm3 were two times more likely to have precancerous cervical lesion compared to those with CD4 cells above 350/mm3. Women with two (AOR = 3.6; 95% CI: 1.7, 7.7) and three (AOR = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.2, 5.4) sexual partners were four and three times more likely to have precancerous cervical lesion, respectively, as compared to those who had one sexual partner. Age, History of STI and duration of ART had no influence on presence of VIA positive lesions in HIV positive women. CONCLUSION: CD4 count cells and number of sexual partners were predictors of VIA positive cervical lesion among HIV positive women.

Physician tracking in sub-Saharan Africa: current initiatives and opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Physician tracking systems are critical for health workforce planning as well as for activities to ensure quality health care - such as physician regulation, education, and emergency response. However, information on current systems for physician tracking in sub-Saharan Africa is limited. The objective of this study is to provide information on the current state of physician tracking systems in the region, highlighting emerging themes and innovative practices. METHODS: This study included a review of the literature, an online search for physician licensing systems, and a document review of publicly available physician registration forms for sub-Saharan African countries. Primary data on physician tracking activities was collected as part of the Medical Education Partnership Initiative (MEPI) - through two rounds over two years of annual surveys to 13 medical schools in 12 sub-Saharan countries. Two innovations were identified during two MEPI school site visits in Uganda and Ghana. RESULTS: Out of twelve countries, nine had existing frameworks for physician tracking through licensing requirements. Most countries collected basic demographic information: name, address, date of birth, nationality/citizenship, and training institution. Practice information was less frequently collected. The most frequently collected practice fields were specialty/degree and current title/position. Location of employment and name and sector of current employer were less frequently collected. Many medical schools are taking steps to implement graduate tracking systems. We also highlight two innovative practices: mobile technology access to physician registries in Uganda and MDNet, a public-private partnership providing free mobile-to-mobile voice and text messages to all doctors registered with the Ghana Medical Association. CONCLUSION: While physician tracking systems vary widely between countries and a number of challenges remain, there appears to be increasing interest in developing these systems and many innovative developments in the area. Opportunities exist to expand these systems in a more coordinated manner that will ultimately lead to better workforce planning, implementation of the workforce, and better health.

Epidemiology of major non-communicable diseases in Ethiopia: a systematic review.

Impact of non-communicable diseases is not well-documented in Ethiopia. We aimed to document the prevalence and mortality associated with four major non-communicable diseases in Ethiopia: cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Associated risk factors: hypertension, tobacco-use, harmful use of alcohol, overweight/obesity, and khat-chewing were also studied. Systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature between 1960 and 2011 was done using PubMed search engines and local libraries to identify prevalence studies on the four diseases. In total, 32 studies were found, and half of these studies were from Addis Ababa. Two hospital-based studies reviewed the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and found a prevalence of 7.2% and 24%; a hospital-based study reviewed cancer prevalence and found a prevalence of 0.3%; two hospital-based studies reviewed diabetes prevalence and found a prevalence of 0.5% and 1.2%; and two hospital-based studies reviewed prevalence of asthma and found a prevalence of 1% and 3.5%. Few community-based studies were done on the prevalence of diabetes and chronic pulmonary obstructive disease among the population. Several studies reviewed the impact of these diseases on mortality: cardiovascular disease accounts for 24% of deaths in Addis Ababa, cancer causes 10% of deaths in the urban settings and 2% deaths in rural setting, and diabetes causes 5% and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease causes 3% of deaths. Several studies reviewed the impact of these diseases on hospital admissions: cardiovascular disease accounts for 3%-12.6% and found to have increased between 1970s and 2000s; cancer accounts for 1.1%-2.8%, diabetes accounts for 0.5%-1.2%, and chronic obstructive diseases account for 2.7%-4.3% of morbidity. Overall, the major non-communicable diseases and related risk factors are highly prevalent, and evidence-based interventions should be designed.

Child, maternal, and adult mortality in rural Ethiopia in 2019: a cross-sectional mortality survey using electronic verbal autopsies.

Background: Ethiopia, with about 10% of Africa's population, has little direct information on causes of death, particularly in rural areas where 80% of Ethiopians live. In 2019-2020, we conducted electronic verbal autopsies (e-VA) to examine causes of death and quantify cause-specific mortality rates in rural Ethiopia. Methods: We examined deaths under 70 years in the three years prior to the survey dates (November 25, 2019-February 29, 2020) among 2% of East Gojjam Zone (Amhara Region) using registered deaths and adding random sampling in this cross-sectional study. Trained surveyors interviewed relatives of the deceased with central dual-physician assignment of causes as the main outcome. We documented details on age, sex and location of death, and derived overall rural death rates using 2007 Census data and the United Nations national estimates for 2019. To these, we applied our sample-weighted causes to derive cause-specific mortality rates. We calculated death risks for the leading causes for major age groups. Findings: We studied 3516 deaths: 55% male, 97% rural, and 68% occurring at home. At ages 5 and older, injuries were notable, accounting for over a third of deaths at 5-14 years, half of the deaths at ages 15-29 years, and a quarter of deaths at ages 30-69 years. Neonatal mortality was high, mostly from prematurity/low birthweight and infections. Among children under 5 (excluding neonates), infections caused nearly two-thirds of deaths. Most maternal deaths (84%) arose from direct causes. After injuries, especially suicide, assaults, and road traffic accidents, vascular disease (15%) and cancer (13%) were the leading causes among adults at 30-69 years. HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis deaths were also important causes among adults. Interpretation: Rural Ethiopia has a high burden of avoidable mortality, particularly injury, including suicide, assaults, and road traffic accidents. Funding: International Development Research Centre, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Patient side cost and its predictors for cervical cancer in Ethiopia: a cross sectional hospital based study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is a leading cause of death from cancer among women in low-resource settings, affecting women at a time of life when they are critical to social and economic stability. In addition, the economic burden is important for policy formulation. The aim of this study is to estimate patient side cost and to determine predictors of its variation for the treatment of cervical cancer. METHODS: Analytic cross sectional study involving 227 cervical cancer cases at Tikur Anbessa Hospital, Ethiopia was conducted. Cost estimation was based on patients' perspective and using the prevalence-based model as a time frame. Productivity losses were estimated from lost working days. RESULTS: The mean outpatient cost per patient for cervical cancer was $407.2 (Median = $206.9). Direct outpatient cost (Mean = $334.2) takes the largest share compared with the indirect counterpart ($150). The outpatient cost for half of the respondent falls in a range between $93.7 and $478. The mean inpatient cost for hospitalized patients was $404.4. The average direct inpatient cost was $329 (74% medical costs and 26% non medical costs). The mean value for total inpatient cost for half of the respondents was in the range of $133.5 and $493.9. For every additional day of inpatient hospital stay, there is a daily incremental inpatient cost of $4.2. CONCLUSION: As has been found in other studies, our findings revealed that cervical cancer creates an immense financial burden on patients. Primary prevention measures, vaccination against HPV and screening, should be initiated and expanded to reduce morbidity from cervical cancer and subsequent costs in both human lives and money resources. Control of co-morbidity and complication should be emphasized during management of cervical cancer patients. Capacitating regional hospitals and provision of low cost or fee exemption schemes should be arranged and strengthened.

Turn-over rate of academic faculty at the College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University: a 20-year analysis (1991 to 2011).

BACKGROUND: Faculty turn-over affects both workers and organizations. Turnover of faculty and researchers is increasing alarmingly and costing the universities and the country at large. Fast turnover of health professionals from the health system and from academic institutions has recently received substantial attention from both academia and health sector managers. This paper calculates the faculty turnover rate at the College of Health Sciences of Addis Ababa University during the period of September 1991 to August 2011. METHODS: The study was conducted at the College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University. Retrospective analysis of employee records was done. All records of the faculty that were working in the College during the 20-year period, starting from September 1991 to August 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Data were collected from the employee records accessed from the College's human resources database and supplemented by payroll sheets and different reports. A structured checklist was used to extract the required data from the database. The crude turnover rate for academic faculty was calculated. RESULTS: Within the 20-year period of September 1991 to August 2011, a total of 120 faculty members left. The overall turn-over rate was 92.8 %. The rate in the most recent five years (172 %) is 8.5 times higher than the rate for the first five years (20 %). The average retention period before the termination of an employment contract was 4.9 years. The top five departments where employment contracts were relatively higher include: Nursing 15 (15.6 %), Internal Medicine 12 (12.5%), Public Health 10 (10.4%), Pediatrics 9 (9.4%) and Surgery 9 (9.4%). About two thirds (66.6%) of the faculty who were leaving were at the ranks of assistant professorship and above. CONCLUSION: This study revealed that outflow of faculty has been continuously increasing in the period reviewed. This implies that the College had been losing highly skilled professionals with considerably higher costs in monetary terms. In this regard, an urgent response is required to retain or significantly decrease the outflow of faculty. Different motivation and retention mechanisms should be identified and implemented. Various modalities of faculty development programs should also be initiated.

Association of socioeconomic and behavioral factors with adult mortality: analysis of data from verbal autopsy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Changes in socioeconomic status, lifestyle and behavioral factors among the urban population in Ethiopia is resulting in a shift in the causes of mortality.We used verbal autopsy data from 2006 to 2009 to measure the association of socioeconomic and behavioral factors with causes of mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A total of 49,309 deaths from burial surveillance were eligible for verbal autopsy for the years 2006 to 2009. Among these, 10% (4,931) were drawn randomly for verbal autopsy of which 91% (4,494) were adults of age≥15 years. Verbal autopsies, used to identify causes of death and frequency of risk factors, were completed for 3,709 (83%) of the drawn sample. RESULTS: According to the results of the verbal autopsy, non-communicable diseases caused 1,915 (51%) of the total adult deaths, while communicable diseases and injuries caused 1,566 (42%) and 233 (6%) of the deaths respectively.Overall, frequent alcohol (12%) and tobacco consumption (7%) were highly prevalent among the deceased individuals; both because of communicable diseases (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) as well as due to non-communicable diseases (malignancy, cardiovascular and chronic liver diseases). HIV/AIDS (AOR=2.14, 95% CI [1.52-3.00], p<0.001) and chronic liver diseases (AOR=3.09, 95% CI [1.95-4.89], p<0.001) were significantly associated with frequent alcohol consumption, while tuberculosis was associated with both frequent alcohol (AOR=1.61, 95% CI [1.15-2.24], p=0.005) and tobacco consumption (AOR=1.67, 95% CI [1.13-2.47], p<0.010). Having low educational status, being female and being within the age range of 25 to 44 years were positively associated with HIV/AIDS related mortality. Individuals aged 45 years and above were 3 to 6 times more likely to have died due to cardiovascular diseases compared with those within the 15 to 24 years age group. CONCLUSION: The findings from the analysis suggest that public health interventions targeting HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, as well as non-communicable diseases need to consider behavioral factors related to alcohol, tobacco and khat consumption. We also recommend large scale national level studies to further assess the specific contributions of these risk factors to the burden of mortality in the country.

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

Validity of verbal autopsy method to determine causes of death among adults in the urban setting of Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy has been widely used to estimate causes of death in settings with inadequate vital registries, but little is known about its validity. This analysis was part of Addis Ababa Mortality Surveillance Program to examine the validity of verbal autopsy for determining causes of death compared with hospital medical records among adults in the urban setting of Ethiopia. METHODS: This validation study consisted of comparison of verbal autopsy final diagnosis with hospital diagnosis taken as a "gold standard". In public and private hospitals of Addis Ababa, 20,152 adult deaths (15 years and above) were recorded between 2007 and 2010. With the same period, a verbal autopsy was conducted for 4,776 adult deaths of which, 1,356 were deceased in any of Addis Ababa hospitals. Then, verbal autopsy and hospital data sets were merged using the variables; full name of the deceased, sex, address, age, place and date of death. We calculated sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: After merging, a total of 335 adult deaths were captured. For communicable diseases, the values of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values of verbal autopsy diagnosis were 79%, 78% and 68% respectively. For non-communicable diseases, sensitivity of the verbal autopsy diagnoses was 69%, specificity 78% and positive predictive value 79%. Regarding injury, sensitivity of the verbal autopsy diagnoses was 70%, specificity 98% and positive predictive value 83%. Higher sensitivity was achieved for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, but lower specificity with relatively more false positives. CONCLUSION: These findings may indicate the potential of verbal autopsy to provide cost-effective information to guide policy on communicable and non communicable diseases double burden among adults in Ethiopia. Thus, a well structured verbal autopsy method, followed by qualified physician reviews could be capable of providing reasonable cause specific mortality estimates in Ethiopia. However, the limited generalizability of this study due to the fact that matched verbal autopsy deaths were all in-hospital deaths in an urban center, thus results may not be generalizable to rural home deaths. Such application and refinement of existing verbal autopsy methods holds out the possibility of obtaining replicable, sustainable and internationally comparable mortality statistics of known quality. Similar validation studies need to be undertaken considering the limitation of medical records as "gold standard" since records may not be confirmed using laboratory investigations or medical technologies. The validation studies need to address child and maternal causes of death and possibly all underlying causes of death.

Patterns of mortality in public and private hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is encountering a growing burden of non-communicable diseases along with infectious diseases, perinatal and nutritional problems that have long been considered major problems of public health importance. This retrospective analysis was carried out to examine the mortality patterns from communicable diseases and non communicable diseases in public and private hospitals of Addis Ababa. METHODS: Approximately 47,153 deaths were captured over eight years (2002-2010) in forty three public and private hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Data collectors (43 hospital clerks) and coordinators (3 nurses) had been extensively trained on how to review hospital death records. Information obtained included: dates of admission and death, age, sex, address, and principal cause of death. Only the diseases responsible for deaths are taken as the cause of death. Cause of death was coded using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) and data were double entered. Diseases were classified into: Group I (communicable diseases, maternal conditions and nutritional deficiencies); Group II (non-communicable causes); and Group III (injuries). Percentages, proportional mortality ratios, 95% confidence intervals (CI) and Adjusted odd ratios (OR) were calculated. RESULTS: Overall, 59% of the deaths were attributed to Group I diseases, and 31% to Group II diseases and 12% to injuries. Nearly 56% of the males and 68% of the females deaths were due to five leading causes (conditions arising during perinatal period, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory infections). Significantly larger proportions of females died from Group I (67%) and Group II diseases (32%) compared with males (where the respective proportions were 52% and 30%). Significantly higher proportion of males (17%) than females (6%) were dying from Group III diseases. Deaths due to Group I diseases decreased while those due to Group II diseases increased with age. Overall Group I diseases and HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and still birth mortality in particular have showed decreasing trend while Group II and III increasing over time. Double burden in mortality was highly observed in the age groups of 15-64 years. Those aged >45 years were dying more likely with non-communicable diseases compared with children. Children aged below 15 years were 16 times more likely to die from communicable, perinatal and nutritional conditions compared with elders. Mortality variation with age has been identified between public and private hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study shows that, in addition to the common Group I causes of death, emerging group II diseases are contributing to high proportions of mortality in the public and private hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Thus, priority should be given to the prevention and management of conditions arising during perinatal period such as low birth weight and still birth, HIV/AIDS; tuberculosis, respiratory infections, cardiovascular diseases, malignant neoplasm, chronic respiratory diseases and road traffic accident. The planning of health resources and activities should take into account the double burden in mortality due to Group I and Group II diseases. This calls for strengthening approaches towards the control and prevention of non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular and malignant neoplasm.

The double mortality burden among adults in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2006-2009.

INTRODUCTION: In Ethiopia, lack of reliable data on causes of death prevents full understanding of the double mortality burden of communicable and noncommunicable diseases. Our objective was to help bridge this research gap by analyzing surveillance data on causes of death in Addis Ababa. METHODS: Burial surveillance identified 58,010 deaths in Addis Ababa from 2006 through 2009, of which 49,309 were eligible for verbal autopsies, a method of interviewing caregivers of the deceased about the circumstances, signs, and symptoms preceding death. We randomly selected 10% from the eligible sample, of whom 91% were defined as adults (aged ≥ 15 y). Verbal autopsies were completed and causes of death were assigned for 3,709 adults. RESULTS: Overall, 51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 49.7%-52.9%) of deaths were attributed to noncommunicable diseases, 42% (95% CI, 40.6%-43.8%) to communicable diseases, and 6% (95% CI, 5.5%-7.0%) to injuries. Similar proportions of male and female deaths were caused by noncommunicable and communicable diseases. Adults aged 55 to 84 were more likely, and those aged 15 to 44 were less likely, to die from noncommunicable diseases compared with the age group 85 or older. Premature deaths (defined as earlier than age 65) from noncommunicable diseases were mainly due to certain cancers, type 1 and type 2 diabetes, hypertension, stroke, and genitourinary disease. CONCLUSION: Noncommunicable diseases are the leading cause of death among adults in Addis Ababa, where the health care system is still geared toward addressing communicable diseases. Health policy attention is needed to remedy this situation. This observed double mortality burden is unlikely to be unique to Addis Ababa and provides new insight into the epidemiological transition in urban Ethiopia. Nationwide studies should be conducted in Ethiopia to examine the pattern of epidemiological transition and the magnitude of double mortality burden.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on health service utilization across regions of Ethiopia: An interrupted time series analysis of health information system data from 2019-2020.

The spread of COVID-19 and associated deaths have remained low in Ethiopia. However, the pandemic could pose a public health crisis indirectly through disruptions in essential health services. The aim of this study was to examine disruptions in health service utilization during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic across 10 regions in Ethiopia. We analyzed utilization of 21 different health services across all of Ethiopia (except the Tigray region) for the period of January 2019 to December 2020. Data were extracted from the Ethiopian district health information system (DHIS2). Monthly visits in 2020 were graphed relative to the same months in 2019. Interrupted time series analysis was used to estimate the effect of the pandemic on service utilization in each region. We found that disruptions in health services were generally higher in urban regions which were most affected by COVID. Outpatient visits declined by 52%, 54%, and 58%, specifically in Dire Dawa, Addis Ababa and Harari, the three urban regions. Similarly, there was a 47% reduction in inpatient admissions in Addis Ababa. In agrarian regions, the pandemic caused an 11% to 17% reduction in outpatient visits and a 10% to 27% decline in inpatient admissions. Visits for children with diarrhea, pneumonia and malnutrition also declined substantially while maternal health services were less affected. Our study indicates that disruptions in health services were more pronounced in areas that were relatively harder hit by the pandemic. Our results show that the Ethiopian health system has a limited capacity to absorb shocks. During future waves of COVID or future pandemics, the Ethiopian health system must be better prepared to maintain essential services and mitigate the indirect impact of the pandemic on public health, particularly in urban areas.

COVID-19 and resilience of healthcare systems in ten countries.

Declines in health service use during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic could have important effects on population health. In this study, we used an interrupted time series design to assess the immediate effect of the pandemic on 31 health services in two low-income (Ethiopia and Haiti), six middle-income (Ghana, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mexico, Nepal, South Africa and Thailand) and high-income (Chile and South Korea) countries. Despite efforts to maintain health services, disruptions of varying magnitude and duration were found in every country, with no clear patterns by country income group or pandemic intensity. Disruptions in health services often preceded COVID-19 waves. Cancer screenings, TB screening and detection and HIV testing were most affected (26-96% declines). Total outpatient visits declined by 9-40% at national levels and remained lower than predicted by the end of 2020. Maternal health services were disrupted in approximately half of the countries, with declines ranging from 5% to 33%. Child vaccinations were disrupted for shorter periods, but we estimate that catch-up campaigns might not have reached all children missed. By contrast, provision of antiretrovirals for HIV was not affected. By the end of 2020, substantial disruptions remained in half of the countries. Preliminary data for 2021 indicate that disruptions likely persisted. Although a portion of the declines observed might result from decreased needs during lockdowns (from fewer infectious illnesses or injuries), a larger share likely reflects a shortfall of health system resilience. Countries must plan to compensate for missed healthcare during the current pandemic and invest in strategies for better health system resilience for future emergencies.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment program in Ethiopia: retention of patients in care is a major challenge and varies across health facilities.

BACKGROUND: Many resource-limited countries are scaling up antiretroviral treatment (ART) towards universal access. However, there are few studies which evaluated outcomes of ART programs in these countries. In addition, these studies generally include a limited number of facilities and patients creating a clear need for studies with a wide range of facilities and large numbers of patients. In this study, we intended to evaluate the outcomes of the ART services in 55 health facilities in Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to determine levels of patient retention in care, CD4 count and shift to second-line ART regimen in 30 hospitals and 25 health centers selected as sentinel sites for monitoring the outcomes of ART program in the country. The outcomes were determined at baseline, after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART. Data was collected from routine patient registers and charts, and entered and analyzed using EPI-Info statistical software. RESULTS: Health facilities were able to retain 29,893 (80%), 20,079 (74%) and 5,069 (68%) of their patients after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART, respectively. Retention rates vary across health facilities, ranging from 51% to 85% after 24 months on ART. Mortality was 5%, 6% and 8% after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART. More than 79% of patients with available CD4-cell counts had a baseline CD4-cell counts less than 200 cells per micro-liter of blood. The median CD4-cell counts (based on patients who were retained after 24 months on ART) increased from 125 (inter-quartile (IQ), 68-189) at baseline to 242 (IQ, 161-343), 269 (IQ, 185-380) and 316 (IQ, 226-445) cells per micro-liter after 6, 12, and 24 months on ART, respectively. The transition to second-line ART remained very low, 0.33%, 0.58% and 2.13% after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART. CONCLUSION: The outcomes of the ART services in the 55 health facilities in Ethiopia are similar to those in other countries. Retention of patients in care is a major challenge and varies across health facilities with high, medium and low retention rates. We therefore recommend further studies to understand the organization of care in health facilities with high, medium and low retention rates. It is also imperative that early initiation of patients on ART is taken seriously as more than 79% of the patients had baseline CD4-cell counts less than 200 cells per micro-liter of blood. Finally, we recommend that the shift to second-line ART might be too low and warrants close monitoring.

Factors influencing people's willingness-to-buy insecticide-treated bednets in Arbaminch Zuria District, southern Ethiopia.

Promoting self-financing healthcare helps restore efficiency and equity to national health systems. This study was conducted in malaria-endemic areas of southern Ethiopia to assess the bednet possession of the community, determine the people's willingness-to-pay for insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs), and identify what factors influence it. The study provided relevant information for programme planners and policymakers for evidence-based decision-making. This quantitative cross-sectional community-based study was conducted in four selected malarious Kebeles of Arbaminch Zuria district using a pretested interview-administered structured questionnaire. In total, 982 household heads were interviewed. The community's willingness-to-pay was assessed by contingent valuation, technique using binary with follow-up method. The advantage, the distribution, and the payment mechanism were explained, and three different qualities of ITN were shown by constructing a hypothetical market scenario. Of the 982 respondents, 466 (47.5%) households had at least one functional bednet. Of 849 children aged less than five years in the 982 households, 185 (21.8%) slept under a net the night preceding the survey. The results of the study revealed that around 86% of the respondents were willing to buy ITNs. The average maximum willingness-to-pay for three different types of bednets was statistically different. The maximum amount the people were willing to pay was US$ 3.3 for a blue conical ITN, US$ 3.2 for a white conical one, and US$ 1.7 for a blue rectangular ITN. The community's willingness-to-pay was significantly affected by gender, educational status, perceived benefit of ITN, previous source of bednet, and characteristics of bednet. The results showed that a significant proportion of the community people were willing to pay for ITNs. Therefore, introducing a subsidized ITN market rather than free distribution for all should be considered to ensure sustainability and self-reliance in the prevention and control of malaria.