A comprehensive, predictive mortality score for patients with bloodstream infections (PROBAC): a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Bloodstream infections (BSI) are an important cause of mortality, although they show heterogeneity depending on patients and aetiological factors. Comprehensive and specific mortality scores for BSI are scarce. The objective of this study was to develop a mortality predictive score in BSI based on a multicentre prospective cohort. METHODS: A prospective cohort including consecutive adults with bacteraemia recruited between October 2016 and March 2017 in 26 Spanish hospitals was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (DC) and a validation cohort (VC). The outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. Predictors were assessed the day of blood culture growth. A logistic regression model and score were developed in the DC for mortality predictors; the model was applied to the VC. RESULTS: Overall, 4102 patients formed the DC and 2009 the VC. Mortality was 11.8% in the DC and 12.34% in the CV; the patients and aetiological features were similar for both cohorts. The mortality predictors selected in the final multivariate model in the DC were age, cancer, liver cirrhosis, fatal McCabe underlying condition, polymicrobial bacteraemia, high-risk aetiologies, high-risk source of infection, recent use of broad-spectrum antibiotics, stupor or coma, mean blood pressure <70 mmHg and PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300 or equivalent. Mortality in the DC was <2% for ≤2 points, 6%-14% for 3-7 points, 26%-45% for 8-12 points and ≥60% for ≥13 points. The predictive score had areas under the receiving operating curves of 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83) in the DC and 0.80 (0.78-0.83) in the VC. CONCLUSIONS: A 30 day mortality predictive score in BSI with good discrimination ability was developed and internally validated.

Catheter-related bloodstream infections: predictive factors for Gram-negative bacteria aetiology and 30 day mortality in a multicentre prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSIs) increase morbidity and mortality, prolong hospitalization and generate considerable medical costs. Recent guidelines for CRBSI recommend empirical therapy against Gram-positive bacteria (GPB) and restrict coverage for Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) only to specific circumstances. OBJECTIVES: To investigate predictors of GNB aetiology in CRBSI and to assess the predictors of outcome in patients with CRBSI. METHODS: Patients with CRBSI were selected from the PROBAC cohort, a prospective, observational, multicentre national cohort study including patients with bloodstream infections consecutively admitted to 26 Spanish hospitals in a 6 month period (October 2016-March 2017). Outcome variables were GNB aetiology and 30 day mortality. Adjusted analyses were performed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Six hundred and thirty-one episodes of CRBSI were included in the study. Risk factors independently related to GNB aetiology were central venous catheter (CVC) [OR 1.60 (95% CI: 1.05-2.44), P = 0.028], sepsis/septic shock [OR: 1.76 (95% CI: 1.11-2.80), P = 0.016], antibiotic therapy in the previous 30 days [OR: 1.56 (95% CI: 1.02-2.36), P = 0.037], neutropenia <500/µL [OR: 2.01 (95% CI: 1.04-3.87), P = 0.037] and peripheral vascular disease [OR: 2.04 (95% CI: 1.13-3.68), P = 0.018]. GNB were not associated with increased mortality in adjusted analysis, while removal of catheter [OR: 0.24 (95% CI: 0.09-0.61), P = 0.002] and adequate empirical treatment [OR: 0.37 (95% CI: 0.18-0.77), P = 0.008] were strong protective factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reinforces the recommendation that empirical coverage should cover GNB in patients presenting with sepsis/septic shock and in neutropenic patients. Catheter removal and adequate empirical treatment were both protective factors against mortality in patients with CRBSI.

Mortality impact of further delays in active targeted antibiotic therapy in bacteraemic patients that did not receive initial active empiric treatment: Results from the prospective, multicentre cohort PROBAC.

OBJECTIVES: The early initiation of the empirical antibiotic treatment and its impact on mortality in patients with bacteraemia has been extensively studied. However, information on the impact of precocity of the targeted antibiotic treatment is scarce. We aimed to study the impact of further delay in active antibiotic therapy on 30-day mortality among patients with bloodstream infection who had not received appropriate empirical therapy. DESIGN: We worked with PROBAC cohort (prospective and compound by patients from 26 different Spanish hospitals). We selected a total of 1703 patients, who survived to day 2 without having received any active antibiotic therapy against the causative pathogen. RESULTS: The 30-day mortality was 14% (238 patients). The adjusted odds of mortality increased for every day of delay, from 1.53 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.08) for day 3 or after to 11.38 (95% CI 7.95-16.38) for day 6 or after. CONCLUSION: We concluded that among patients who had not received active treatment within the first 2 days of blood culture collection, additional delays in active targeted therapy were associated with increased mortality. These results emphasize the importance of active interventions in the management of patients with bloodstream infections.

Association of microbiological factors with mortality in Escherichia coli bacteraemia presenting with sepsis/septic shock: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the association of Escherichia coli microbiological factors with 30-day mortality in patients with bloodstream infection (BSI) presenting with a dysregulated response to infection (i.e. sepsis or septic shock). METHODS: Whole-genome sequencing was performed on 224 E coli isolates of patients with sepsis/septic shock, from 22 Spanish hospitals. Phylogroup, sequence type, virulence, antibiotic resistance, and pathogenicity islands were assessed. A multivariable model for 30-day mortality including clinical and epidemiological variables was built, to which microbiological variables were hierarchically added. The predictive capacity of the models was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Mortality at day 30 was 31% (69 patients). The clinical model for mortality included (adjusted OR; 95% CI) age (1.04; 1.02-1.07), Charlson index ≥3 (1.78; 0.95-3.32), urinary BSI source (0.30; 0.16-0.57), and active empirical treatment (0.36; 0.11-1.14) with an AUROC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.80). Addition of microbiological factors selected clone ST95 (3.64; 0.94-14.04), eilA gene (2.62; 1.14-6.02), and astA gene (2.39; 0.87-6.59) as associated with mortality, with an AUROC of 0.76 (0.69-0.82). DISCUSSION: Despite having a modest overall contribution, some microbiological factors were associated with increased odds of death and deserve to be studied as potential therapeutic or preventive targets.

Risk Factors and Predictive Score for Bacteremic Biliary Tract Infections Due to Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium: a Multicenter Cohort Study from the PROBAC Project.

Biliary-tract bloodstream infections (BT-BSI) caused by Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium are associated with inappropriate empirical treatment and worse outcomes compared to other etiologies. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk factors for enterococcal BT-BSI. Patients with BT-BSI from the PROBAC cohort, including consecutive patients with BSI in 26 Spanish hospitals between October 2016 and March 2017, were selected; episodes caused by E. faecalis or E. faecium and other causes were compared. Independent predictors for enterococci were identified by logistic regression, and a predictive score was developed. Eight hundred fifty episodes of BT-BSI were included; 73 (8.5%) were due to target Enterococcus spp. (48 [66%] were E. faecium and 25 [34%] E. faecalis). By multivariate analysis, the variables independently associated with Enterococcus spp. were (OR; 95% confidence interval): cholangiocarcinoma (4.48;1.32 to 15.25), hospital acquisition (3.58;2.11 to 6.07), use of carbapenems in the previous month (3.35;1.45 to 7.78), biliary prosthesis (2.19;1.24 to 3.90), and moderate or severe chronic kidney disease (1.55;1.07 to 2.26). The AUC of the model was 0.74 [95% CI0.67 to 0.80]. A score was developed, with 7, 6, 5, 4, and 2 points for these variables, respectively, with a negative predictive value of 95% for a score ≤ 6. A model, including cholangiocarcinoma, biliary prosthesis, hospital acquisition, previous carbapenems, and chronic kidney disease showed moderate prediction ability for enterococcal BT-BSI. Although the score will need to be validated, this information may be useful for deciding empirical therapy in biliary tract infections when bacteremia is suspected. IMPORTANCE Biliary tract infections are frequent, and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Bacteremia is common in these infections, particularly in the elderly and patients with cancer. Inappropriate empirical treatment has been associated with increased risk of mortality in bacteremic cholangitis, and the probability of receiving inactive empirical treatment is higher in episodes caused by enterococci. This is because many of the antimicrobial agents recommended in guidelines for biliary tract infections lack activity against these organisms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing the predictive factors for enterococcal BT-BSI and deriving a predictive score.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa Community-Onset Bloodstream Infections: Characterization, Diagnostic Predictors, and Predictive Score Development-Results from the PRO-BAC Cohort.

Community-onset bloodstream infections (CO-BSI) caused by gram-negative bacilli are common and associated with significant mortality; those caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa are associated with worse prognosis and higher rates of inadequateempirical antibiotic treatment. The aims of this study were to describe the characteristics of patients with CO-BSI caused by P. aeruginosa, to identify predictors, and to develop a predictive score for P. aeruginosa CO-BSI. Materials/methods: PROBAC is a prospective cohort including patients >14 years with BSI from 26 Spanish hospitals between October 2016 and May 2017. Patients with monomicrobial P. aeruginosa CO-BSI and monomicrobial Enterobacterales CO-BSI were included. Variables of interest were collected. Independent predictors of Pseudomonas aeruginosa CO-BSI were identified by logistic regression and a prediction score was developed. Results: A total of 78patients with P. aeruginosa CO-BSI and 2572 with Enterobacterales CO-BSI were included. Patients with P. aeruginosa had a median age of 70 years (IQR 60−79), 68.8% were male, median Charlson score was 5 (IQR 3−7), and 30-daymortality was 18.5%. Multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of CO-BSI-PA [adjusted OR (95% CI)]: male gender [1.89 (1.14−3.12)], haematological malignancy [2.45 (1.20−4.99)], obstructive uropathy [2.86 (1.13−3.02)], source of infection other than urinary tract, biliary tract or intra-abdominal [6.69 (4.10−10.92)] and healthcare-associated BSI [1.85 (1.13−3.02)]. Anindex predictive of CO-BSI-PA was developed; scores ≥ 3.5 showed a negative predictive value of 89% and an area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) of 0.66. Conclusions: We did not find a good predictive score of P. aeruginosa CO-BSI due to its relatively low incidence in the overall population. Our model includes variables that are easy to collect in real clinical practice and could be useful to detect patients with very low risk of P. aeruginosa CO-BSI.