Mapping the connectivity-conflict interface to inform conservation.

Balancing the competing, and often conflicting, needs of people and wildlife in shared landscapes is a major challenge for conservation science and policy worldwide. Connectivity is critical for wildlife persistence, but dispersing animals may come into conflict with people, leading to severe costs for humans and animals and impeding connectivity. Thus, conflict mitigation and connectivity present an apparent dilemma for conservation. We present a framework to address this dilemma and disentangle the effects of barriers to animal movement and conflict-induced mortality of dispersers on connectivity. We extend random-walk theory to map the connectivity-conflict interface, or areas where frequent animal movement may lead to conflict and conflict in turn impedes connectivity. We illustrate this framework with the endangered Asian elephant Elephas maximus, a species that frequently disperses out of protected areas and comes into conflict with humans. We mapped expected movement across a human-dominated landscape over the short- and long-term, accounting for conflict mortality. Natural and conflict-induced mortality together reduced expected movement and connectivity among populations. Based on model validation, our conflict predictions that explicitly captured animal movement better explained observed conflict than a model that considered distribution alone. Our work highlights the interaction between connectivity and conflict and enables identification of location-specific conflict mitigation strategies that minimize losses to people, while ensuring critical wildlife movement between habitats. By predicting where animal movement and humans collide, we provide a basis to plan for broad-scale conservation and the mutual well-being of wildlife and people in shared landscapes.

Understanding integrated service delivery: a scoping review of models for noncommunicable disease and mental health interventions in low-and-middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions represent a growing proportion of disease burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While past efforts have identified interventions to be delivered across health system levels to address this burden, the challenge remains of how to deliver heterogenous interventions in resource-constrained settings. One possible solution is the Integration of interventions within existing care delivery models. This study reviews and summarizes published literature on models of integrated NCD and mental health care in LMICs. METHODS: We searched Pubmed, African Index Medicus and reference lists to conduct a scoping review of studies describing an integrated model of NCD or neuropsychiatric conditions (NPs) implemented in a LMIC. Conditions of interest were grouped into common and severe NCDs and NPs. We identified domains of interest and types of service integration, conducting a narrative synthesis of study types. Studies were screened and characteristics were extracted for all relevant studies. Results are reported using PRISMA-ScR. RESULTS: Our search yielded 5004 studies, we included 219 models of integration from 188 studies. Most studies were conducted in middle-income countries, with the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Health services were offered across all health system levels, with most models implemented at health centers. Common NCDs (including type 2 diabetes and hypertension) were most frequently addressed by these models, followed by common NPs (including depression and anxiety). Conditions and/or services were often integrated into existing primary healthcare, HIV, maternal and child health programs. Services provided for conditions of interest varied and frequency of these services differed across health system levels. Many models demonstrated decentralization of services to lower health system levels, and task shifting to lower cadre providers. CONCLUSIONS: While integrated service design is a promising method to achieve ambitious global goals, little is known about what works, when, and why. This review characterizing care integration programs is an initial step toward developing a structured study of care integration.

Towards a unified framework for connectivity that disentangles movement and mortality in space and time.

Predicting connectivity, or how landscapes alter movement, is essential for understanding the scope for species persistence with environmental change. Although it is well known that movement is risky, connectivity modelling often conflates behavioural responses to the matrix through which animals disperse with mortality risk. We derive new connectivity models using random walk theory, based on the concept of spatial absorbing Markov chains. These models decompose the role of matrix on movement behaviour and mortality risk, can incorporate species distribution to predict the amount of flow, and provide both short- and long-term analytical solutions for multiple connectivity metrics. We validate the framework using data on movement of an insect herbivore in 15 experimental landscapes. Our results demonstrate that disentangling the roles of movement behaviour and mortality risk is fundamental to accurately interpreting landscape connectivity, and that spatial absorbing Markov chains provide a generalisable and powerful framework with which to do so.

Disaggregating catastrophic health expenditure by disease area: cross-country estimates based on the World Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Financial risk protection (FRP) is a key objective of national health systems and a core pillar of universal health coverage (UHC). Yet, little is known about the disease-specific distribution of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) at the national level. METHODS: Using the World Health Surveys (WHS) from 39 countries, we quantified CHE, or household health spending that surpasses 40% of capacity-to-pay by key disease areas. We restricted our analysis to households in which the respondent used health care in the last 30 days and categorized CHE into disease areas included as WHS response options: maternal and child health (MCH); high fever, severe diarrhea, or cough; heart disease; asthma; injury; surgery; and other. We compared disease-specific CHE estimates by income, pooled funding as a share of total health expenditure, share of the population affected by the different diseases, and poverty status. RESULTS: Across countries, an average of 45.1% of CHE cases could not be tied to a specific cause; 37.6% (95% UI 35.4-39.9%) of CHE cases were associated with high fever, severe cough, or diarrhea; 3.9% (3.0-4.9%) with MCH; and 4.1% (3.3-4.9%) with heart disease. Injuries constituted 5.2% (4.2-6.4%) of CHE cases. The distribution of CHE varied substantially by national income. A 10% increase in heart disease prevalence was associated with a 1.9% (1.3-2.4%) increase in heart disease CHE, an association stronger than any other disease area. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach is comparable, comprehensive, and empirically based and highlights how financial risk protection may not be aligned with disease burden. Disease-specific CHE estimates can illuminate how health systems can target reform to best protect households from financial risk.

Burden of disease among the world's poorest billion people: An expert-informed secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease estimates.

BACKGROUND: The health of populations living in extreme poverty has been a long-standing focus of global development efforts, and continues to be a priority during the Sustainable Development Goal era. However, there has not been a systematic attempt to quantify the magnitude and causes of the burden in this specific population for almost two decades. We estimated disease rates by cause for the world's poorest billion and compared these rates to those in high-income populations. METHODS: We defined the population in extreme poverty using a multidimensional poverty index. We used national-level disease burden estimates from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study and adjusted these to account for within-country variation in rates. To adjust for within-country variation, we looked to the relationship between rates of extreme poverty and disease rates across countries. In our main modeling approach, we used these relationships when there was consistency with expert opinion from a survey we conducted of disease experts regarding the associations between household poverty and the incidence and fatality of conditions. Otherwise, no within-country variation was assumed. We compared results across multiple approaches for estimating the burden in the poorest billion, including aggregating national-level burden from the countries with the highest poverty rates. We examined the composition of the estimated disease burden among the poorest billion and made comparisons with estimates for high-income countries. RESULTS: The composition of disease burden among the poorest billion, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), was 65% communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, 29% non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 6% injuries. Age-standardized DALY rates from NCDs were 44% higher in the poorest billion (23,583 DALYs per 100,000) compared to high-income regions (16,344 DALYs per 100,000). Age-standardized DALY rates were 2,147% higher for CMNN conditions (32,334 DALYs per 100,000) and 86% higher for injuries (4,182 DALYs per 100,000) in the poorest billion, compared to high-income regions. CONCLUSION: The disease burden among the poorest people globally compared to that in high income countries is highly influenced by demographics as well as large disparities in burden from many conditions. The comparisons show that the largest disparities remain in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, though NCDs and injuries are an important part of the "unfinished agenda" of poor health among those living in extreme poverty.

Noncommunicable Disease (NCD) strategic plans in low- and lower-middle income Sub-Saharan Africa: framing and policy response.

BACKGROUND: Global efforts to address NCDs focus primarily on 4-by-4 interventions - interventions to prevent and treat four groups of conditions affecting mainly older adults (some cardiovascular disease and cancers, type 2 diabetes, chronic respiratory disease) and four associated risk factors (alcohol, tobacco, poor diets, and physical inactivity). However, the NCD burden in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is composed of a more diverse set of conditions, driven by a more complex group of risks, and impacting all segments of the population. OBJECTIVE: To document the NCD priorities identified by NCD strategic plans, to characterize the proposed policy response, and to assess the alignment between the two. METHODS: Using a two-part conceptual framework, we undertook a descriptive study to characterize the framing and overall policy response of strategic plans from 24 low- and lower-middle-income countries across SSA. RESULTS: The national situation assessments that ground strategic plans emphasize a diversity of conditions that range in terms of severity and frequency. These assessments also highlight a wide diversity of factors that shape this burden. Most include discussions of a broad range of behavioral, structural, genetic, and infectious risk factors. Plans endorse a more narrow response to this diverse burden, with a focus on primary and secondary prevention that is generally convergent with the objectives established in global policy documents. CONCLUSIONS: Broadly, we observe that plans developed by countries in SSA recognize the heterogeneity of the NCD burden in this region. However, they emphasize interventions that are consistent with global strategies focused on preventing a narrower set of cardiometabolic risk factors and their associated diseases. In comparison, relatively few countries detail plans to prevent, treat, and palliate the full scope of the needs they identify. There is a need for increased support for bottom-up planning efforts to address local priorities.

A comparison of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by household socioeconomic status across seven INDEPTH network health and demographic surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Understanding socioeconomic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality can help inform prevention and treatment strategies. OBJECTIVES: To quantify cause-specific mortality rates by socioeconomic status across seven health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in five countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Nigeria) in the INDEPTH Network in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We linked demographic residence data with household survey data containing living standards and education information we used to create a poverty index. Person-years lived and deaths between 2003 and 2016 (periods varied by HDSS) were stratified in each HDSS by age, sex, year, and number of deprivations on the poverty index (0-8). Causes of death were assigned to each death using the InterVA-4 model based on responses to verbal autopsy questionnaires. We estimated rate ratios between socioeconomic groups (2-4 and 5-8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0-2 deprivations) for specific causes of death and calculated life expectancy for the deprivation groups. RESULTS: Our pooled data contained almost 3.5 million person-years of observation and 25,038 deaths. All-cause mortality rates were higher among people in households with 5-8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0-2 deprivations, controlling for age, sex, and year (rate ratios ranged 1.42 to 2.06 across HDSS sites). The poorest group had consistently higher death rates in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions (rate ratios ranged 1.34-4.05) and for non-communicable diseases in several sites (1.14-1.93). The disparities in mortality between 5-8 deprivation groups and 0-2 deprivation groups led to lower life expectancy in the higher-deprivation groups by six years in all sites and more than 10 years in five sites. CONCLUSIONS: We show large disparities in mortality on the basis of socioeconomic status across seven HDSS in sub-Saharan Africa due to disparities in communicable disease mortality and from non-communicable diseases in some sites. Life expectancy gaps between socioeconomic groups within sites were similar to the gaps between high-income and lower-middle-income countries. Prevention and treatment efforts can benefit from understanding subpopulations facing higher mortality from specific conditions.

Young women and breast cancer: challenges and answers-report from the Sixth Annual International Symposium, Mexico, 20-21 October 2014.

Tómatelo a Pecho, Funsalud, the Harvard Global Equity Initiative, and the Mexican Ministry of Health led a group of institutions in organising the Sixth Annual International Symposium marking breast cancer awareness month in Mexico on 20-21 October 2014. This year's event, with the theme 'Young Women and Breast Cancer: Challenges and Answers', took place at the National Institute of Perinatology in Mexico City. This was the first time the symposium focused almost entirely on young women. The reasons for this emphasis were reported on by many national and global experts, who also presented evidence to show that breast cancer has become a leading cause of death among younger women in Mexico, and conveyed the benefits of early breast cancer detection and the need to create innovative solutions for care and survivorship support for this age group. Over the course of one-and-a-half days, the symposium covered a wide range of topics and perspectives, including the epidemiology, biology, and genetics of breast cancer; challenges; and innovative answers to early detection and the myriad of short- and long-term challenges faced by patients with breast cancer, such as some cutting-edge techniques used to preserve fertility in women undergoing chemotherapy. How the presence of local and global stakeholders will ensure the accountability of the multiple participants already immersed in the various areas of research and activities related to breast cancer. The voices of the Ministry of Health and of other institutions central to the Mexican health system show that there is a political will for work in this area, and there are the means to make a change happen.