Changes Over Time in the Proportion of Advanced HIV Disease in Two High HIV Prevalence Settings in Ndhiwa (Kenya) and Eshowe (South Africa).

BACKGROUND: The burden of advanced HIV disease remains a significant concern in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, the World Health Organization released recommendations to treat all people living with HIV (PLHIV) regardless of CD4 ("treat all") and in 2017 guidelines for managing advanced HIV disease. We assessed changes over time in the proportion of PLHIV with advanced HIV and their care cascade in two community settings in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based surveys were conducted in Ndhiwa (Kenya) in 2012 and 2018 and in Eshowe (South Africa) in 2013 and 2018. We recruited individuals aged 15-59 years. Consenting participants were interviewed and tested for HIV at home. All participants with HIV had CD4 count measured. Advanced HIV was defined as CD4 < 200 cells/µL. RESULTS: Overall, 6076 and 6001 individuals were included in 2012 and 2018 (Ndhiwa) and 5646 and 3270 individuals in 2013 and 2018 (Eshowe), respectively. In Ndhiwa, the proportion of PLHIV with advanced HIV decreased from 2012 (159/1376 (11.8%; 95% CI: 9.8-14.2)) to 2018 (53/1000 (5.0%; 3.8-6.6)). The proportion of individuals with advanced HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 9.1% (6.9-11.8) in 2012 and 4.2% (3.0-5.8) in 2018. In Eshowe, the proportion with advanced HIV was 130/1400 (9.8%; 8.0-11.9) in 2013 and 38/834 (4.5%; 3.3-6.1) in 2018. The proportion with advanced HIV among those on ART was 6.9% (5.5-8.8) in 2013 and 2.8% (1.8-4.3) in 2018. There was a significant increase in coverage for all steps of the care cascade among people with advanced HIV between the two Ndhiwa surveys, with all the changes occurring among men and not women. No significant changes were observed in Eshowe between the surveys overall and by sex. CONCLUSION: The proportion with advanced HIV disease decreased between the first and second surveys where all guidelines have been implemented between the two HIV surveys.

Distribution of advanced HIV disease between two time periods in Ndhiwa (Kenya) and Eshowe (South Africa)We examined changes over time in the proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) with advanced HIV and their care cascade in two community settings in sub-Saharan Africa: Ndhiwa (Kenya) and Eshowe (South Africa). In 2012 and 2018, a total of 6,076 and 6,001 individuals were included in Ndhiwa, and 5,646 and 3,270 individuals were included in Eshowe in 2013 and 2018, respectively. In Ndhiwa, the proportion of PLHIV with advanced HIV decreased from 11.8% in 2012 to 5.0% in 2018. The proportion of individuals with advanced HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreased from 9.1% in 2012 to 4.2% in 2018. In Eshowe, the proportion PLHIV with advanced HIV decreased from 9.8% in 2013 to 4.5% in 2018. Among those on ART, the proportion of PLHIV with advanced HIV decreased from 6.9% in 2013 to 2.8% in 2018. The results also showed a significant increase in coverage for all steps of the care cascade among people with advanced HIV in Ndhiwa in 2018 compared to 2012, with these changes observed only among men and not women. No significant changes were observed in Eshowe between the surveys, both overall and when comparing by sex.

Retention in care among clinically stable antiretroviral therapy patients following a six-monthly clinical consultation schedule: findings from a cohort study in rural Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Longer intervals between clinic consultations for clinically stable antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients may improve retention in care and reduce facility workload. We assessed long-term retention among clinically stable ART patients attending six-monthly clinical consultations (SMCC) with three-monthly fast-track drug refills, and estimated the number of consultations "saved" by this model of ART delivery in rural Malawi. METHODS: Stable patients (aged ≥18 years, on first-line ART ≥12 months, CD4 count ≥300 cells/mL3 , without opportunistic infections, not pregnant/breastfeeding) were eligible for SMCC, with three-monthly drug refills from community health workers. Early enrollees were those starting SMCC within six months of eligibility, while late enrollees started at least 6 months after first eligibility. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to calculate cumulative probabilities of retention, stratified by timing of their enrolment and from first six-monthly clinical consultation. Cox regression was used to measure attrition hazards from the first six-monthly clinical consultation and risk factors for attrition, accounting for the time-varying nature of their eligibility and enrolment in this model of care. RESULTS: From 2008 to 2015, 22,633 clinically stable patients from 11 facilities were eligible for SMCC for at least three months, contributing 74,264 person-years of observation, and 18,363 persons (81%) initiated this model of care. The median time from eligibility to enrolment was 12 months and the median cumulative time on SMCC was 14.5 months. Five years after first SMCC eligibility, cumulative probabilities of retention were 85.5% (95% CI: 84.0% to 86.9%) among early enrollees and 93% (95% CI: 92.8% to 94.0%) among late enrollees. The cumulative probability of retention from first SMCC was 97.0% (95% CI: 96.7% to 97.3%) and 86% (95% CI: 85% to 87%) at one and five years respectively. Among eligible patients initiating SMCC, the adjusted hazards of attrition were 2.4 (95% CI: 2.0 to 2.8) times higher during periods of SMCC discontinuation compared to periods on SMCC. Male sex, younger age, more recent SMCC eligibility and WHO Stage 3/4 conditions in the past year were also independently associated with attrition from SMCC. Approximately 26,000 consultations were "saved" during 2014. CONCLUSION: After five years, retention among patients attending SMCC was high, especially among women and older patients, and its scale-up could facilitate universal access to ART.

Impact of "test and treat" recommendations on eligibility for antiretroviral treatment: Cross sectional population survey data from three high HIV prevalence countries.

BACKGROUND: Latest WHO guidelines recommend starting HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy treatment (ART) regardless of CD4 count. We assessed additional impact of adopting new WHO guidelines. METHODS: We used data of individuals aged 15-59 years from three HIV population surveys conducted in 2012 (Kenya) and 2013 (Malawi and South Africa). Individuals were interviewed at home followed by rapid HIV and CD4 testing if tested HIV-positive. HIV-positive individuals were classified as "eligible for ART" if (i) had ever been initiated on ART or (ii) were not yet on ART but met the criteria for starting ART based on country's guidelines at the time of the survey (Kenya-CD4< = 350 cells/µl and WHO Stage 3 or 4 disease, Malawi as for Kenya plus lifelong ART for all pregnant and breastfeeding women, South Africa as for Kenya plus ART for pregnant and breastfeeding women until cessation of breastfeeding). FINDINGS: Of 18,991 individuals who tested, 4,113 (21.7%) were HIV-positive. Using country's ART eligibility guidelines at the time of the survey, the proportion of HIV-infected individuals eligible for ART was 60.0% (95% CI: 57.2-62.7) (Kenya), 73.4% (70.8-75.8) (South Africa) and 80.1% (77.3-82.6) (Malawi). Applying WHO 2013 guidelines (eligibility at CD4< = 500 and Option B+ for pregnant and breastfeeding women), the proportions eligible were 82.0% (79.8-84.1) (Kenya), 83.7% (81.5-85.6) (South Africa) and 87.6% (85.0-89.8) (Malawi). Adopting "test and treat" would mean a further 18.0% HIV-positive individuals (Kenya), 16.3% (South Africa) and 12.4% (Malawi) would become eligible. In all countries, about 20% of adolescents (aged 15-19 years), became eligible for ART moving from WHO 2013 to "test and treat" while no differences by sex were observed. CONCLUSION: Countries that have already implemented 2013 WHO recommendations, the burden of implementing "test and treat" would be small. Youth friendly programmes to help adolescents access and adhere to treatment will be needed.

Closer to 90-90-90. The cascade of care after 10 years of ART scale-up in rural Malawi: a population study.

INTRODUCTION: The antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme supported by Médecins Sans Frontières in the rural Malawian district of Chiradzulu was one of the first in sub-Saharan Africa to scale up ART delivery in 2002. After more than a decade of continuous involvement, we conducted a population survey to evaluate the cascade of care, including population viral load, in the district. METHODS: A cross-sectional household-based survey was conducted between February and May 2013. Using a multistage cluster sampling method, we recruited all individuals aged 15 to 59 years living in 4125 randomly selected households. Each consenting individual was interviewed and tested for HIV at home. All participants who tested positive had their CD4 count and viral load measured. The LAg-Avidity assay was used to distinguish recent from long-term infections. Viral suppression was defined as a viral load below 1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: Of 8271 individuals eligible for the study, 7269 agreed to participate and were tested for HIV (94.1% inclusion for women and 80.3% for men). Overall HIV prevalence and incidence were 17.0% (95% CI 16.1 to 17.9) and 0.39 new cases per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.0 to 0.77), respectively. Coverage at the other steps along the HIV care cascade was as follows: 76.7% (95% CI 74.4 to 79.1) had been previously diagnosed, 71.2% (95% CI 68.6 to 73.6) were under care and 65.8% (95% CI 62.8 to 68.2) were receiving ART. Finally, the proportion of participants who were HIV positive with a viral load ≤ 1000 copies/mL reached 61.8% (95% CI 59.0 to 64.5). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that a high level of population viral suppression and low incidence can be achieved in high HIV prevalence and resource-limited settings.