A competing risks model to estimate the risk of graft failure and patient death after kidney transplantation using continuous donor-recipient age combinations.

Graft failure and recipient death with functioning graft are important competing outcomes after kidney transplantation. Risk prediction models typically censor for the competing outcome thereby overestimating the cumulative incidence. The magnitude of this overestimation is not well-described in real-world transplant data. This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from the European Collaborative Transplant Study (CTS; n = 125 250) and from the American Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR; n = 190 258). Separate cause-specific hazard models, using donor and recipient age as continuous predictors, were developed for graft failure and recipient death. The hazard of graft failure increased quadratically with increasing donor age and decreased decaying with increasing recipient age. The hazard of recipient death increased linearly with increasing donor and recipient age. The cumulative incidence overestimation due to competing risk-censoring was largest in high-risk populations for both outcomes (old donors/recipients), sometimes amounting to 8.4 and 18.8 percentage points for graft failure and recipient death, respectively. In our illustrative model for post-transplant risk prediction, the absolute risk of graft failure and death is overestimated when censoring for the competing event, mainly in older donors and recipients. Prediction models for absolute risks should treat graft failure and death as competing events.

A2/A2B to B deceased donor kidney transplantation in the Kidney Allocation System era.

Kidney transplantation from blood type A2/A2B donors to type B recipients (A2→B) has increased dramatically under the current Kidney Allocation System (KAS). Among living donor transplant recipients, A2-incompatible transplants are associated with an increased risk of all-cause and death-censored graft failure. In light of this, we used data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients from December 2014 until June 2022 to evaluate the association between A2→B listing and time to deceased donor kidney transplantation (DDKT) and post-DDKT outcomes for A2→B recipients. Among 53 409 type B waitlist registrants, only 12.6% were listed as eligible to accept A2→B offers ("A2-eligible"). The rates of DDKT at 1-, 3-, and 5-years were 32.1%, 61.4%, and 72.1% among A2-eligible candidates and 14.1%, 29.9%, and 44.1% among A2-ineligible candidates, with the former experiencing a 133% higher rate of DDKT (Cox weighted hazard ratio (wHR) = 2.192.332.47; P < .001). The 7-year adjusted mortality was comparable between A2→B and B-ABOc (type B/O donors to B recipients) recipients (wHR 0.780.941.13, P = .5). Moreover, there was no difference between A2→B vs B-ABOc DDKT recipients with regards to death-censored graft failure (wHR 0.771.001.29, P > .9) or all-cause graft loss (wHR 0.820.961.12, P = .6). Following its broader adoption since the implementation of the kidney allocation system, A2→B DDKT appears to be a safe and effective transplant modality for eligible candidates. As such, A2→B listing for eligible type B candidates should be expanded.

Center and Individual Willingness to Consider Heart and Lung Offers From Donors With Hepatitis C.

INTRODUCTION: Transplants with hearts and lungs from donors with hepatitis C virus (HCV D+) have been proven safe and effective since development of direct-acting antivirals, yet the presence of HCV + persists as a reason to decline organs. METHODS: We identified adult candidates listed January 1, 2015-March 8, 2023 for heart or lung transplant using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We identified individual-level and center-level characteristics associated with listing to consider HCV D+ offers using multilevel logistic regression in a multivariable framework. RESULTS: Over the study period, the annual percentage of candidates willing to consider HCV D+ offers increased for both heart (9.5%-74.3%) and lung (7.8%-59.5%), as did the percentage of centers listing candidates for HCV D+ heart (52.9%-91.1%) and lung (32.8%-82.8%) offers. Candidates at centers with more experience with HCV D+ transplants were more likely to consider HCV D+ organ offers. After adjustment, listing center explained 70% and 78% of the residual variance in willingness to consider HCV D+ hearts and lungs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although listing for consideration of HCV D+ offers has increased, it varies by transplant center. Center-level barriers to consideration of HCV D+ organs reduce recipients' transplant access.

Single center utilization and post-transplant outcomes of thoracoabdominal normothermic regional perfusion deceased cardiac donor organs.

INTRODUCTION: Thoracoabdominal normothermic regional perfusion (TA-NRP) following cardiac death is an emerging multivisceral organ procurement technique. Recent national studies on outcomes of presumptive TA-NRP-procured organs are limited by potential misclassification since TA-NRP is not differentiated from donation after cardiac death (DCD) in registry data. METHODS: We studied 22 donors whose designees consented to TA-NRP and organ procurement performed at our institution between January 20, 2020 and July 3, 2022. We identified these donors in SRTR to describe organ utilization and recipient outcomes and compared them to recipients of traditional DCD (tDCD) and donation after brain death (DBD) organs during the same timeframe. RESULTS: All 22 donors progressed to cardiac arrest and underwent TA-NRP followed by heart, lung, kidney, and/or liver procurement. Median donor age was 41 years, 55% had anoxic brain injury, 45% were hypertensive, 0% were diabetic, and median kidney donor profile index was 40%. TA-NRP utilization was high across all organ types (88%-100%), with a higher percentage of kidneys procured via TA-NRP compared to tDCD (88% vs. 72%, p = .02). Recipient and graft survival ranged from 89% to 100% and were comparable to tDCD and DBD recipients (p ≥ .2). Delayed graft function was lower for kidneys procured from TA-NRP compared to tDCD donors (27% vs. 44%, p = .045). CONCLUSION: Procurement from TA-NRP donors yielded high organ utilization, with outcomes comparable to tDCD and DBD recipients across organ types. Further large-scale study of TA-NRP donors, facilitated by its capture in the national registry, will be critical to fully understand its impact as an organ procurement technique.

Organ Nonutilization Following Revision to the Public Health Service Donor Risk Criteria for HIV, HCV, or HBV Transmission.

BACKGROUND: Organs from Public Health Service criteria (PHSC) donors, previously referred to as PHS infectious-risk donors, have historically been recovered but not used, traditionally referred to as "discard," at higher rates despite negligible risk to recipients. On March 1, 2021, the definition of PHSC donors narrowed to include only the subset of donors deemed to have meaningfully elevated risk in the current era of improved infectious disease testing. METHODS: Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from May 1, 2019, to December 31, 2022, we compared rates of PHSC classification and nonutilization of PHSC organs before versus after the March 1, 2021, policy change among recovered decedents using the χ 2 tests. We performed an adjusted interrupted time series analysis to examine kidney and liver recovery/nonuse (traditionally termed "discard") and kidney, liver, lung, and heart nonutilization (nonrecovery or recovery/nonuse) prepolicy versus postpolicy. RESULTS: PHSC classification dropped sharply from 24.5% prepolicy to 15.4% postpolicy ( P  < 0.001). Before the policy change, PHSC kidney recovery/nonuse, liver nonuse, lung nonuse, and heart nonuse were comparable to non-PHSC estimates (adjusted odds ratio: kidney =  0.98 1.06 1.14 , P  = 0.14; liver =  0.85 0.92 1.01 , P  = 0.07; lung =  0.91 0.99 1.08 , P  = 0.83; heart =  0.89 0.97 1.05 , P  = 0.47); following the policy change, PHSC kidney recovery/nonuse, liver nonuse, lung nonuse, and heart nonuse were lower than non-PHSC estimates (adjusted odds ratio: kidney =  0.77 0.84 0.91 , P  < 0.001; liver =  0.77 0.84 0.92 , P  < 0.001; lung =  0.74 0.81 0.90 , P  < 0.001; heart =  0.61 0.67 0.73 , P  < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Even though PHSC donors under the new definition are a narrower and theoretically riskier subpopulation than under the previous classification, PHSC status appears to be associated with a reduced risk of kidney and liver recovery/nonuse and nonutilization of all organs. Although historically PHSC organs have been underused, our findings demonstrate a notable shift toward increased PHSC organ utilization.

COVID-19 and Access to Kidney Transplantation for Older Candidates in the United States: A National Registry Study.

Rationale & Objective: Coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 has likely impacted accessibility to transplantation services among older adults (age ≥65 years). We quantified the impact of COVID-19 on kidney transplantation access for older kidney-only candidates registered on the United States (US) kidney waitlist. Study Design: Retrospective analysis of registry data. Setting & Participants: 57,222 older adults who were part of or added to the US kidney waitlist between January 1, 2016 and February 28, 2022, identified using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). Exposures: Four COVID-19 waves and one nonwave period based on the national incidence of COVID-19 in the US (initial: March 15-May 30, 2020; winter 2020-2021: December 1, 2020-January 31, 2021; delta: August 1, 2021-September 30, 2021; omicron: December 1, 2021-February 28, 2022; nonwave: inter-wave periods). Outcomes: Waitlist registrations, deceased-donor kidney transplants, living-donor kidney transplants, waitlist mortality, and waitlist removals due to deteriorating condition (hereafter referred to as removals). Analytical Approach: Poisson regression for the adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) of each outcome during the COVID-19 waves and the nonwave period relative to reference (January 1, 2016-December 31, 2019), adjusted for seasonality and secular trends. Results: Waitlist registrations initially declined and increased henceforth. Deceased-donor kidney transplants and living-donor kidney transplants remained below-expected levels during all waves. Waitlist mortality peaked during the winter 2020-2021 wave (aIRR: 1.701.982.30) and has declined since; mortality rates were 139%, 107%, and 251% above expected for Black candidates, men, and candidates aged ≥75 years, respectively, during the winter 2020-2021 wave. Removals increased from 22% below expected levels (initial wave) to 26% above expected levels (omicron wave); removals were nonsignificantly higher than expected during the omicron wave for older Black and Hispanic candidates. Limitations: The findings are not generalizable to those listed at earlier ages with prolonged waitlist times. Additionally, using national COVID-19 incidence does not consider local policy and health care variations. Lastly, aIRRs must be interpreted cautiously due to smaller daily event counts. Conclusions: COVID-19 was associated with fewer transplants and increased mortality and removals in older kidney transplant candidates. Transplant providers should consider this impact and implement policies and practices to ensure the continuity of care. Plain-Language Summary: The proportion of older adults on the kidney transplant waitlist is increasing, but the impact of COVID-19 on this population is not well characterized. In this study, we looked at incident waitlist registrations, deceased- and living-donor kidney transplants, and waitlist mortality and removals due to deteriorating condition over 4 waves of COVID-19. We found that transplantation services did not fully recover to prepandemic levels as of March 2022. Notably, racial/ethnic minorities and older men experienced lower rates of kidney transplants and higher rates of waitlist mortality, respectively, relative to White candidates and older women. Identifying vulnerable subpopulations affected by COVID-19 and its long-term impact is crucial for creating strategies to ensure the continuity of care in this population during public health emergencies.

National Incidence, Outcomes, and Management Strategies for Pre- and Post-Transplant Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Transplant Recipients.

Background: Among heart transplant candidates, atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common comorbidity; however, little is known about the impact of pre-transplant AF on incidence of post-transplant AF or other transplant outcomes. Methods: Adult heart transplant recipients transplanted from 07/01/2012 to 07/01/2021 with data available in both the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and Symphony Health pharmacy databases were included. Recipients were categorized by presence of pre-transplant AF using prescription fill data. Perioperative outcomes and survival out to 5 years post-transplant were compared between those with and without pre-transplant AF. Results: Of the 11,789 heart transplant recipients, 2,477 (21.0%) had pre-transplant AF. Pre-transplant AF was associated with an increased likelihood of pre-discharge stroke (aOR 2.13 [95%CI: 1.07-4.26], p=0.03) and dialysis (aOR 1.45 [1.05-2.00], p=0.02), as well as of post-transplant AF at 6 months (aOR 2.42 [1.44-1.48], p=0.001) and 1 year (aOR 2.81 [1.72-4.56], p<0.001). Pre-transplant AF was associated with increased post-transplant mortality at 30 days (aHR 2.39 [1.29-4.44], p=0.006) and 1 year (aHR 1.46 [95% CI: 1.01-2.13], p=0.04), but similar mortality at 5 years (aHR 1.23 [0.96-1.58], p=0.11). Conclusion: Heart transplant recipients with pre-transplant AF had worse short-term outcomes and increased risk of developing post-transplant AF but comparable survival at 5 years post-transplant. Our findings emphasize the importance of increased monitoring for perioperative complications and highlight the long-term safety of heart transplantation in this population. What Is New?: Patients with atrial fibrillation who undergo heart transplantation have worse short term survival (30-days and 1-year) but similar long term survival (5-years) compared to recipients without pre-transplant atrial fibrillation.Pre-transplant atrial fibrillation increases the risk of clinically significant post-transplant atrial fibrillation and peri-operative stroke.Rate vs rhythm control pharmacotherapy for atrial fibrillation is not associated with differences in survival in heart transplant recipients with pre-transplant atrial fibrillation. What are the Clinical Implications?: Atrial fibrillation should not deter heart transplantation in appropriate candidates, though cardiovascular and stroke risk adjustment may be warranted.Use of amiodarone at doses ≤ 200 mg/day is not associated with reduced survival in heart transplant recipients with pre-transplant atrial fibrillation.

Waitlist Outcomes for Exception and Non-exception Liver Transplant Candidates in the United States Following Implementation of the Median MELD at Transplant (MMaT)/250-mile Policy.

BACKGROUND: Since February 2020, exception points have been allocated equivalent to the median model for end-stage liver disease at transplant within 250 nautical miles of the transplant center (MMaT/250). We compared transplant rate and waitlist mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exception, non-HCC exception, and non-exception candidates to determine whether MMaT/250 advantages (or disadvantages) exception candidates. METHODS: Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data, we identified 23 686 adult, first-time, active, deceased donor liver transplant (DDLT) candidates between February 4, 2020, and February 3, 2022. We compared DDLT rates using Cox regression, and waitlist mortality/dropout using competing risks regression in non-exception versus HCC versus non-HCC candidates. RESULTS: Within 24 mo of study entry, 58.4% of non-exception candidates received DDLT, compared with 57.8% for HCC candidates and 70.5% for non-HCC candidates. After adjustment, HCC candidates had 27% lower DDLT rate (adjusted hazard ratio =  0.68 0.73 0.77 ) compared with non-exception candidates. However, waitlist mortality for HCC was comparable to non-exception candidates (adjusted subhazard ratio [asHR] =  0.93 1.03 1.15 ). Non-HCC candidates with pulmonary complications of cirrhosis or cholangiocarcinoma had substantially higher risk of waitlist mortality compared with non-exception candidates (asHR =  1.27 1.70 2.29 for pulmonary complications of cirrhosis, 1.35 2.04 3.07 for cholangiocarcinoma). The same was not true of non-HCC candidates with exceptions for other reasons (asHR =  0.54 0.88 1.44 ). CONCLUSIONS: Under MMaT/250, HCC, and non-exception candidates have comparable risks of dying before receiving liver transplant, despite lower transplant rates for HCC. However, non-HCC candidates with pulmonary complications of cirrhosis or cholangiocarcinoma have substantially higher risk of dying before receiving liver transplant; these candidates may merit increased allocation priority.

For your consideration: Benefits of listing as willing to consider heart offers from donors with hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Despite excellent outcomes of heart transplants from hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive donors (D+), many candidates are not listed to even consider HCV D+ offers. METHODS: Using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified adult (age ≥18 years) heart transplant candidates prevalent on the waitlist between 2018 and March 2023. We compared the likelihood of waitlist mortality or heart transplant by candidate willingness to consider HCV D+ offers using competing risk regression. RESULTS: We identified 19,415 heart transplant candidates, 68.9% of whom were willing to consider HCV D+ offers. Candidates willing to consider HCV D+ offers had a 37% lower risk of waitlist mortality (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56-0.70; P < .001) than candidates not willing to consider HCV D+ offers, after adjustment for covariates and center-level clustering. Over the same period, heart transplant candidates willing to consider HCV D+ offers had a 21% higher likelihood of receiving a transplant (SHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.7-1.26; P < .001). As a result, among candidates willing to consider HCV D+ offers, 74.9% received a transplant and 6.1% died/deteriorated after 3 years, compared to 68.3% and 9.1%, respectively, of candidates not willing to consider HCV D+ offers. Lower waitlist mortality also was observed on subgroup analyses of candidates on temporary and durable mechanical circulatory support. CONCLUSIONS: Willingness to consider HCV D+ heart offers was associated with a 37% lower risk of waitlist mortality and a 21% higher likelihood of receiving a transplant. We urge providers to encourage candidates to list as being willing to consider offers from donors with hepatitis C to optimize their waitlist outcomes and access to transplantation.

National Attitudes Toward Living Kidney Donation in the United States: Results of a Public Opinion Survey.

Rationale & Objective: Understanding national attitudes about living kidney donation will enable us to identify and address existing disincentives to living kidney donation. We performed a national survey to describe living kidney donation perceptions, perceived factors that affect the willingness to donate, and analyzed differences by demographic subgroups. Study Design: The survey items captured living kidney donation awareness, living kidney donation knowledge, willingness to donate, and barriers and facilitators to living kidney donation. Setting & Population: We surveyed 802 US adults (aged 25-65 years) in June 2021, randomly selected from an online platform with diverse representation. Analytical Approach: We developed summed, scaled indices to assess the association between the living kidney donation knowledge (9 items) and the willingness to donate (8 items) to self-reported demographic characteristics and other variables of interest using analysis of variance. All other associations for categorical questions were calculated using Pearson's χ2 and Fisher exact tests. We inductively evaluated free-text responses to identify additional barriers and facilitators to living kidney donation. Results: Most (86.6%) of the respondents reported that they might or would definitely consider donating a kidney while they were still living. Barriers to living kidney donation included concerns about the risk of the surgery, paying for medical expenses, and potential health effects. Facilitators to living kidney donation included having information on the donation surgery's safety, knowing that the donor would not have to pay for medical expenses related to the donation, and hearing living kidney donation success stories. Awareness of the ability to participate in kidney-paired donation was associated with a higher willingness to donate. Limitations: Potential for selection bias resulting from the use of survey panels and varied incentive amounts, and measurement error related to respondents' attention level. Conclusions: Most people would consider becoming a living kidney donor. Increased rates of living kidney donation may be possible with investment in culturally competent educational interventions that address risks associated with donating, policies that reduce financial disincentives, and communication campaigns that raise awareness of kidney-paired donation and living kidney donation.

Understanding what the general public thinks about living kidney donation will help to develop better education and increase the number of living kidney donors. We surveyed the public to find out: (1) how aware they are about the opportunity to donate a kidney while alive; (2) how much they know about living kidney donation; (3) whether they would be willing to donate; and (4) what would affect their willingness to donate. We found that teaching people about the risks of donating, decreasing costs related to donation, and raising awareness about it could increase the number of people willing to donate.

Invasive Fungal Infections in Inpatient Solid Organ Transplant Recipients With COVID-19: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and outcomes of COVID-19-associated invasive fungal infections (CAIFIs) in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) remain poorly understood. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of SOTRs with COVID-19 admitted to 5 hospitals within Johns Hopkins Medicine was performed between March 2020 and March 2022. Cox regression multilevel mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression was used. RESULTS: In the cohort of 276 SOTRs, 22 (8%) developed IFIs. The prevalence of CAIFIs was highest in lung transplant recipients (20%), followed by recipients of heart (2/28; 7.1%), liver (3/46; 6.5%), and kidney (7/149; 4.7%) transplants. In the overall cohort, only 42 of 276 SOTRs (15.2%) required mechanical ventilation; these included 11 of 22 SOTRs (50%) of the CAIFI group and 31 of 254 SOTRs (12.2%) of the no-CAIFI group. Compared with those without IFIs, SOTs with IFIs had worse outcomes and required more advanced life support (high-flow oxygen, vasopressor, and dialysis). SOTRs with CAIFIs had higher 1-y death-censored allograft failure (hazard ratio 1.6 5.1 16.4 , P  = 0.006) and 1-y mortality adjusting for oxygen requirement (adjusted hazard ratio 1.1 2.4 5.1 , P  < 0.001), compared with SOTRs without CAIFIs. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of CAIFIs in inpatient SOTRs with COVID-19 is substantial. Clinicians should be alert to the possibility of CAIFIs in SOTRs with COVID-19, particularly those requiring supplemental oxygen, regardless of their intubation status.