Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study.

There is imminent refracture risk in elderly individuals for up to six years, with a decline thereafter except in women below 75 who face a constant elevated risk. Elderly men with fractures face the highest mortality risk, particularly those with hip and vertebral fractures. Targeted monitoring and treatment strategies are recommended. PURPOSE: Current management and interventions for osteoporotic fractures typically focus on bone mineral density loss, resulting in suboptimal evaluation of fracture risk. The aim of the study is to understand the progression of fractures to refractures and mortality in the elderly using multi-state models to better target those at risk. METHODS: This prospective, observational study analysed data from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort of Icelandic elderly, using multi-state models to analyse the evolution of fractures into refractures and mortality, and to estimate the probability of future events in subjects based on prognostic factors. RESULTS: At baseline, 4778 older individuals aged 65 years and older were included. Elderly men, and elderly women above 80 years of age, had a distinct imminent refracture risk that lasted between 2-6 years, followed by a sharp decline. However, elderly women below 75 continued to maintain a nearly constant refracture risk profile for ten years. Hip (30-63%) and vertebral (24-55%) fractures carried the highest 5-year mortality burden for elderly men and women, regardless of age, and for elderly men over 80, lower leg fractures also posed a significant mortality risk. CONCLUSION: The risk of refracture significantly increases in the first six years following the initial fracture. Elderly women, who experience fractures at a younger age, should be closely monitored to address their long-term elevated refracture risk. Elderly men, especially those with hip and vertebral fractures, face substantial mortality risk and require prioritized monitoring and treatment.

High-Suspicion Subcentimeter Thyroid Nodules: Cost Effectiveness of Active Surveillance versus Fine Needle Aspiration.

PURPOSE: To compare the cost-benefit of active surveillance (AS) against immediate fine needle aspiration (FNA) of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodules. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-benefit of 3 strategies from the point of discovery until death: (a) Surveillance of all nodules, (b) Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology, and (c) Surgery of nodules with positive cytology. The reference case was a 40-year-old woman with a sonographically suspicious subcentimeter thyroid nodule. Transition probabilities, costs, and health state utilities were derived from the literature. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model uncertainty. Willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $100,000/quality-adjusted life year. RESULTS: Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology dominated in the reference scenario and was cost-beneficial over Surveillance of all nodules, independent of the utility of AS. Surveillance of all nodules was cost-beneficial only at a life expectancy of <2.6 years or surveillance duration of <4 years. CONCLUSIONS: While current guidelines recommend AS of sonographically suspicious subcentimeter nodules, the results of this study suggest that immediate FNA (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) is more cost-beneficial than AS (Surveillance of all nodules). Patients with positive cytology on FNA may subsequently opt for AS (Surveillance of nodules with positive cytology) or surgery (Surgery of nodules with positive cytology) according to their level of comfort (ie, utility) with AS.

Evaluating the Value for Money of Precision Medicine from Early Cycle to Market Access: A Comprehensive Review of Approaches and Challenges.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to perform a comprehensive review of modeling approaches and methodological and policy challenges in the economic evaluation (EE) of precision medicine (PM) across clinical stages. METHODS: First, a systematic review was performed to assess the approaches of EEs in the past 10 years. Next, a targeted review of methodological articles was conducted for methodological and policy challenges in performing EEs of PM. All findings were synthesized into a structured framework that focused on patient population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Time, Equity and ethics, Adaptability and Modeling aspects, named the "PICOTEAM" framework. Finally, a stakeholder consultation was conducted to understand the major determinants of decision making in PM investment. RESULTS: In 39 methodological articles, we identified major challenges to the EE of PM. These challenges include that PM applications involve complex and evolving clinical decision space, that clinical evidence is sparse because of small subgroups and complex pathways in PM settings, a one-time PM application may have lifetime or intergenerational impacts but long-term evidence is often unavailable, and that equity and ethics concerns are exceptional. In 275 EEs of PM, current approaches did not sufficiently capture the value of PM compared with targeted therapies, nor did they differentiate Early EEs from Conventional EEs. Finally, policy makers perceived the budget impact, cost savings, and cost-effectiveness of PM as the most important determinants in decision making. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need to modify existing guidelines or develop a new reference case that fits into the new healthcare paradigm of PM to guide decision making in research and development and market access.

Group Model Building on causes and interventions for falls in Singapore: insights from a systems thinking approach.

BACKGROUND: Falls in older adults are the result of a complex web of interacting causes, that further results in other physical, emotional, and psychological sequelae. A conceptual framework that represents the reciprocal dynamics of these causal factors can enable clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to clarify goals in falls intervention in older adults. METHODS: A Group Model Building (GMB) exercise was conducted with researchers and clinicians from academic units and public healthcare institutes in Singapore. The aim of the exercise was to produce a shared visual representation of the causal structure for falls and engage in discussions on how current and future falls intervention programmes can address falls in the older adults, especially in the Asian context. It was conducted in four steps: 1) Outlining and prioritising desirable patient outcomes, 2) Conceptual model building, 3) Identifying key intervention elements of effective falls intervention programmes, 4) Mapping of interventions to outcomes. This causal loop diagram (CLD) was then used to generate insights into the current understanding of falls causal relationships, current efforts in falls intervention in Singapore, and used to identify gaps in falls research that could be further advanced in future intervention studies. RESULTS: Four patient outcomes were identified by the group as key in falls intervention: 1) Falls, 2) Injurious falls, 3) Fear of falling, and 4) Restricted mobility and life space. A CLD of the reciprocal relationships between risk factors and these outcomes are represented in four sub-models: 1) Fear of falling, 2) Injuries associated with falls, 3) Caregiver overprotectiveness, 4) Post-traumatic stress disorder and psychological resilience. Through this GMB exercise, the group gained the following insights: (1) Psychological sequelae of falls is an important falls intervention outcome. (2) The effects of family overprotectiveness, psychological resilience, and PTSD in exacerbating the consequences of falls are not well understood. (3) There is a need to develop multi-component falls interventions to address the multitude of falls and falls related sequelae. CONCLUSION: This work illustrates the potential of GMB to promote shared understanding of complex healthcare problems and to provide a roadmap for the development of more effective preventive actions.

Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Versus Oral Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation : A Decision Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) is a potential alternative to oral anticoagulants in selected patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Compared with anticoagulants, LAAO decreases major bleeding risk, but there is uncertainty regarding the risk for ischemic stroke compared with anticoagulation. OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal strategy for stroke prevention conditional on a patient's individual risks for ischemic stroke and bleeding. DESIGN: Decision analysis with a Markov model. DATA SOURCES: Evidence from the published literature informed model inputs. TARGET POPULATION: Women and men with nonvalvular AF and without prior stroke. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical. INTERVENTION: LAAO versus warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary end point was clinical benefit measured in quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: The baseline risks for stroke and bleeding determined whether LAAO was preferred over anticoagulants in patients with AF. The combined risks favored LAAO for higher bleeding risk, but that benefit became less certain at higher stroke risks. For example, at a HAS-BLED score of 5, LAAO was favored in more than 80% of model simulations for CHA2DS2-VASc scores between 2 and 5. The probability of LAAO benefit in QALYs (>80%) at lower bleeding risks (HAS-BLED score of 0 to 1) was limited to patients with lower stroke risks (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2). Because DOACs carry lower bleeding risks than warfarin, the net benefit of LAAO is less certain than that of DOACs. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Results were consistent using the ORBIT bleeding score instead of the HAS-BLED score, as well as alternative sources for LAAO clinical effectiveness data. LIMITATION: Clinical effectiveness data were drawn primarily from studies on the Watchman device. CONCLUSION: Although LAAO could be an alternative to anticoagulants for stroke prevention in patients with AF and high bleeding risk, the overall benefit from LAAO depends on the combination of stroke and bleeding risks in individual patients. These results suggest the need for a sufficiently low stroke risk for LAAO to be beneficial. The authors believe that these results could improve shared decision making when selecting patients for LAAO. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Development of a real-world database for asthma and COPD: The SingHealth-Duke-NUS-GSK COPD and Asthma Real-World Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration.

PURPOSE: The SingHealth-Duke-GlaxoSmithKline COPD and Asthma Real-world Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration was formed to accelerate the use of Singaporean real-world evidence in research and clinical care. A centerpiece of the collaboration was to develop a near real-time database from clinical and operational data sources to inform healthcare decision making and research studies on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: Our multidisciplinary team, including clinicians, epidemiologists, data scientists, medical informaticians and IT engineers, adopted the hybrid waterfall-agile project management methodology to develop the SingHealth COPD and Asthma Data Mart (SCDM). The SCDM was developed within the organizational data warehouse. It pulls and maps data from various information systems using extract, transform and load (ETL) pipelines. Robust user testing and data verification was also performed to ensure that the business requirements were met and that the ETL pipelines were valid. RESULTS: The SCDM includes 199 data elements relevant to asthma and COPD. Data verification was performed and found the SCDM to be reliable. As of December 31, 2019, the SCDM contained 36,407 unique patients with asthma and COPD across the spectrum from primary to tertiary care in our healthcare system. The database updates weekly to add new data of existing patients and to include new patients who fulfil the inclusion criteria. CONCLUSIONS: The SCDM was systematically developed and tested to support the use RWD for clinical and health services research in asthma and COPD. This can serve as a platform to provide research and operational insights to improve the care delivered to our patients.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs). METHODS: The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics. CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Singapore's health-care system: key features, challenges, and shifts.

Since Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, the development of its health-care system has been underpinned by an emphasis on personal responsibility for health, and active government intervention to ensure access and affordability through targeted subsidies and to reduce unnecessary costs. Singapore is achieving good health outcomes, with a total health expenditure of 4·47% of gross domestic product in 2016. However, the health-care system is contending with increased stress, as reflected in so-called pain points that have led to public concern, including shortages in acute hospital beds and intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services, and high out-of-pocket payments. The main drivers of these challenges are the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases and rapid population ageing, limitations in the delivery and organisation of primary care and ILTC, and financial incentives that might inadvertently impede care integration. To address these challenges, Singapore's Ministry of Health implemented a comprehensive set of reforms in 2012 under its Healthcare 2020 Masterplan. These reforms substantially increased the capacity of public hospital beds and ILTC services in the community, expanded subsidies for primary care and long-term care, and introduced a series of financing health-care reforms to strengthen financial protection and coverage. However, it became clear that these measures alone would not address the underlying drivers of system stress in the long term. Instead, the system requires, and is making, much more fundamental changes to its approach. In 2016, the Ministry of Health encapsulated the required shifts in terms of the so-called Three Beyonds-namely, beyond health care to health, beyond hospital to community, and beyond quality to value.

Incentives for Uptake of and Adherence to Outpatient Stroke Rehabilitation Services: A 3-Arm Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if rehabilitation uptake and adherence can be increased by providing coordinated transportation (increased convenience) and eliminating out-of-pocket costs (reduced expense). DESIGN: Three-arm randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Stroke units of 2 Singapore tertiary hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Singaporeans or permanent residents 21 years or older who were diagnosed as having stroke and were discharged home with physician's recommendation to continue outpatient rehabilitation (N=266). INTERVENTIONS: A Transportation Incentives arm (T), which provides free transportation services, a Transportation & Sessions Incentives arm (T&S), offering free transportation and prescribed stroke rehabilitation sessions, and a control arm, Education (E), consisting of a stroke rehabilitation educational program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary study outcome was uptake of outpatient rehabilitation services (ORS) among patients poststroke and key predefined secondary outcomes being number of sessions attended and adherence to prescribed sessions. RESULTS: Uptake rate of ORS was 73.0% for E (confidence interval [CI], 63.8%-82.3%), 81.8% for T (CI, 73.8%-89.8%), and 84.3% for T&S (CI, 76.7%-91.8%). Differences of T and T&S vs E were not statistically significant (P=.22 and P=.10, respectively). However, average number of rehabilitation sessions attended were significantly higher in both intervention arms: 5.50±7.65 for T and 7.51±9.52 for T&S vs 3.26±4.22 for control arm (E) (T vs E: P=.017; T&S vs E: P<.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that persistence was higher for T&S compared with E (P=.029). CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated a possibility in increasing the uptake of and persistence to stroke ORS with free transportation and sessions. Incentivizing survivors of stroke to take up ORS is a new strategy worthy of further exploration for future policy change in financing ORS or other long-term care services.

Developing integration among stakeholders in the primary care networks of Singapore: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Integrating healthcare services across and between the different health system levels can be achieved in a few ways; however, examining the social side of integration is essential and challenging. This paper explores the concept of integration perceived by general practitioners (GPs) and primary care network (PCN) representatives from the regional health systems (RHS) in a GP-RHS PCN and their perceived partnership success. METHODS: In this study, we explored three GP-RHS PCNs in Singapore. We used a qualitative research design and, overall, performed 17 semi-structured in-depth interviews with GPs (n = 11) and PCN representatives (n = 6) from the RHS. All interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. We conducted thematic analysis to inductively identify themes from the data. Singer's conceptual model of integration types was used as guiding principles to derive relevant and salient themes for integration. RESULTS: GPs and the RHS perceived the concept of integration through a series of interrelated strategies. Within the normative dimension, a sense of urgency motivated GPs to integrate improvements into their general practice. Participants perceived teamwork and relational climate as appropriate enablers for achieving interpersonal integration in a primary care partnership. While developing a trusted relationship was a perceived success of this partnership across the network, developing camaraderie and gaining knowledge in chronic disease management through the components of functional integration was a perceived success at an individual general practice level. The data also revealed some operational challenges within the structural dimension and some inabilities of the PCN to achieve complete process integration. CONCLUSIONS: Our study points to multi-faceted integration, comprising various forms that need to be manifested at all levels of care to achieve coordinated, seamless, and comprehensive care for patients suffering from chronic conditions. The present iteration of the PCN has been shown to offer integration at a level that warrants praise but still requires structural and process integration improvement.

Developing a toolkit for implementing evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and diabetes in Cambodia: a descriptive case study.

BACKGROUND: In Cambodia, economic development accompanied by health reforms has led to a rapidly ageing population and an increasing incidence and prevalence of noncommunicable diseases. National strategic plans recognize primary care health centres as the focal points of care for treating and managing chronic conditions, particularly hypertension and type 2 diabetes. However, health centres have limited experience in providing such services. This case study describes the process of developing a toolkit to facilitate the use of evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes at the health-centre level. METHODS: We developed and revised a preliminary toolkit based on the feedback received from key stakeholders. We gathered feedback through an iterative process of group and one-to-one consultations with representatives of the Ministry of Health, provincial health department, health centres and nongovernmental organizations between April 2019 and March 2021. RESULTS: A toolkit was developed and organized according to the core tasks required to treat and manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes patients. The main tools included patient identification and treatment cards, risk screening forms, a treatment flowchart, referral forms, and patient education material on risk factors and lifestyle recommendations on diet, exercise, and smoking cessation. The toolkit supplements existing guidelines by incorporating context-specific features, including drug availability and the types of medication and dosage guidelines recommended by the Ministry of Health. Referral forms can be extended to incorporate engagement with community health workers and patient education material adapted to the local context. All tools were translated into Khmer and can be modified as needed based on available resources and arrangements with other institutions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates how a toolkit can be developed through iterative engagement with relevant stakeholders individually and in groups to support the implementation of evidence-based guidelines. Such toolkits can help strengthen the function and capacity of the primary care system to provide care for noncommunicable diseases, serving as the first step towards developing a more comprehensive and sustainable health system in the context of population ageing and caring for patients with chronic diseases.

Population Segmentation Based on Healthcare Needs: Validation of a Brief Clinician-Administered Tool.

BACKGROUND: As populations age with increasingly complex chronic conditions, segmenting populations into clinically meaningful categories of healthcare and related service needs can provide healthcare planners with crucial information to optimally meet needs. However, while conventional approaches typically involve electronic medical records (EMRs), such records do not always capture information reliably or accurately. OBJECTIVE: We describe the inter-rater reliability and predictive validity of a clinician-administered tool, the Simple Segmentation Tool (SST) for categorizing older individuals into one of six Global Impression (GI) segments and eight complicating factors (CFs) indicative of healthcare and related social needs. DESIGN: Observational study ( ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT02663037). PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 55 years and above. MAIN MEASURES: Emergency department (ED) subjects (between May and June 2016) had baseline SST assessment by two physicians and a nurse concurrently seeing the same individual. General medical (GM) ward subjects (February 2017) had a SST assessment by their principal physician. Adverse events (ED visits, hospitalizations, and mortality over 90 days from baseline) were determined by a blinded reviewer. Inter-rater reliability was measured using Cohen's kappa. Predictive validity was evaluated using Cox hazard ratios based on time to first adverse event. KEY RESULTS: Cohen's kappa between physician-physician, service physician-nurse, and physician-nurse pairs for GI were 0.60, 0.71, and 0.68, respectively. Cox analyses demonstrated significant predictive validity of GI and CFs for adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: With modest training, clinicians can complete a brief instrument to segment their patient into clinically meaningful categories of healthcare and related service needs. This approach can complement and overcome current limitations of EMR-based instruments, particularly with respect to whole-patient care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02663037.

Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) to identify optimal sequences of telemedicine interventions for improving initiation of insulin therapy: A simulation study.

BACKGROUND: To examine the value of a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) design compared to a conventional randomized control trial (RCT) for telemedicine strategies to support titration of insulin therapy for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients new to insulin. METHODS: Microsimulation models were created in R using a synthetic sample based on primary data from 63 subjects enrolled in a pilot study of a smartphone application (App), Diabetes Pal compared to a nurse-based telemedicine strategy (Nurse). For comparability, the SMART and an RCT design were constructed to allow comparison of four (embedded) adaptive interventions (AIs). RESULTS: In the base case scenario, the SMART has similar overall mean expected HbA1c and cost per subject compared with RCT, for sample size of n = 100 over 10,000 simulations. SMART has lower (better) standard deviations of the mean expected HbA1c per AI, and higher efficiency of choosing the correct AI across various sample sizes. The differences between SMART and RCT become apparent as sample size decreases. For both trial designs, the threshold value at which a subject was deemed to have been responsive at an intermediate point in the trial had an optimal choice (i.e., the sensitivity curve had a U-shape). SMART design dominates the RCT, in the overall mean HbA1c (lower value) when the threshold value is close to optimal. CONCLUSIONS: SMART is suited to evaluating the efficacy of different sequences of treatment options, in addition to the advantage of providing information on optimal treatment sequences.

Long-term quality of life, sexual health and gastrointestinal function following colorectal cancer resection in an Asian cohort.

AIM: As populations age and cancer management improves, long-term survivorship and quality-of-life (QOL) outcomes are becoming equally important as oncological results. Data from Asian populations are scarce. We aimed to evaluate the sexual health, gastrointestinal function and QOL amongst colorectal cancer survivors in a tertiary referral centre in Singapore. METHOD: Adults who had undergone elective curative surgery for non-metastatic colorectal cancer at least 2 years prior were included. Exclusion criteria were cognitive disease, serious postoperative complications or recurrent cancer. Participants were invited to complete the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaires EORTC-QLQ-C30 and QLQ-CR29. Using multiple bivariate analysis, r scores were used to examine relationship trends between QOL domains and survivor sociodemographic and disease-specific characteristics. RESULTS: From February 2017 to July 2019, 400 responses were recorded. Median age and follow-up duration were 64 years (range 32-90) and 78 months (interquartile range 49-113) respectively. Patients who had Stage III cancer had better overall QOL scores compared to Stage I/II. Rectal (vs. colon) cancer negatively influenced sexual health and gastrointestinal function, but did not appear to affect overall QOL. Amongst our cohort, 57% (n = 129) of men and 43% (n = 75) of women were sexually active. Markers of socioeconomic status, including employment, education and housing type, were found to significantly impact perception of various aspects of QOL. CONCLUSION: Knowledge of factors which influence well-being can identify individuals who may benefit from tailored management strategies. Regular patient-doctor contact may play a role in building and maintaining positive perspectives of cancer survivors. Normative data should be obtained from local populations to facilitate future comparative research.

Trends in functional disability and cognitive impairment among the older adult in China up to 2060: estimates from a dynamic multi-state population model.

BACKGROUND: Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Hence any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Thus, this research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. METHODS: We developed and validated a dynamic multi-state population model which simulates the population of China and tracks the transition of Chinese older adults (65 years and older) from 2010 to 2060, to and from six health states-(i) active older adults without cognitive impairment, (ii) active older adults with cognitive impairment, (iii) older adults with 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (iv) older adults with cognitive impairment and 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (v) older adults with 3 or more ADL limitations, and (vi) older adults with cognitive impairment and 3 or more ADL limitations. RESULTS: From 2015 to 2060, the number of older adults 65 years and older in China is projected to increase, of which the number with impairment (herein referred to as individuals with cognitive impairment and/or activity of daily living limitations) is projected to increase more than fourfold from 17·9 million (17·8-18·0) million in 2015 to 96·2 (95·3-97·1) million by 2060. Among the older adults with impairment, those with ADL limitations only is projected to increase from 3·7 million (3·6-3·7 million) in 2015 to 23·9 million (23·4-24·6 million) by 2060, with an estimated annual increase of 12·2% (12·1-12·3); while that for cognitive impairment only is estimated to increase from 11·4 million (11·3-11·5 million) in 2015 to 47·8 million (47·5-48·2 million) by 2060-this representing an annual growth of 7·07% (7·05-7·09). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest there will be an increase in demand for intermediate and long-term care services among the older adults with functional disability and cognitive impairment.

Role of caregiver factors in outpatient medical follow-up post-stroke: observational study in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Outpatient medical follow-up post-stroke is not only crucial for secondary prevention but is also associated with a reduced risk of rehospitalization. However, being voluntary and non-urgent, it is potentially determined by both healthcare needs and the socio-demographic context of stroke survivor-caregiver dyads. Therefore, we aimed to examine the role of caregiver factors in outpatient medical follow-up (primary care (PC) and specialist outpatient care (SOC)) post-stroke. METHOD: Stroke survivors and caregivers from the Singapore Stroke Study, a prospective, yearlong, observational study, contributed to the study sample. Participants were interviewed 3-monthly for data collection. Counts of PC and SOC visits were extracted from the National Claims Database. Poisson modelling was used to explore the association of caregiver (and patient) factors with PC/SOC visits over 0-3 months (early) and 4-12 months (late) post-stroke. RESULTS: For the current analysis, 256 stroke survivors and caregivers were included. While caregiver-reported memory problems of a stroke survivor (IRR: 0.954; 95% CI: 0.919, 0.990) and caregiver burden (IRR: 0.976; 95% CI: 0.959, 0.993) were significantly associated with lower early post-stroke PC visits, co-residing caregiver (IRR: 1.576; 95% CI: 1.040, 2.389) and negative care management strategies (IRR: 1.033; 95% CI: 1.005, 1.061) were significantly associated with higher late post-stroke SOC visits. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that the association of caregiver factors with outpatient medical follow-up varied by the type of service (i.e., PC versus SOC) and temporally. Our results support family-centred care provision by family physicians viewing caregivers not only as facilitators of care in the community but also as active members of the care team and as clients requiring care and regular assessments.

Clinical implementation of an oncology-specific family health history risk assessment tool.

BACKGROUND: The presence of hereditary cancer syndromes in cancer patients can have an impact on current clinical care and post-treatment prevention and surveillance measures. Several barriers inhibit identification of hereditary cancer syndromes in routine practice. This paper describes the impact of using a patient-facing family health history risk assessment platform on the identification and referral of breast cancer patients to genetic counselling services. METHODS: This was a hybrid implementation-effectiveness study completed in breast cancer clinics. English-literate patients not previously referred for genetic counselling and/or gone through genetic testing were offered enrollment. Consented participants were provided educational materials on family health history collection, entered their family health history into the platform and completed a satisfaction survey. Upon completion, participants and their clinicians were given personalized risk reports. Chart abstraction was done to identify actions taken by patients, providers and genetic counsellors. RESULTS: Of 195 patients approached, 102 consented and completed the study (mean age 55.7, 100 % women). Sixty-six (65 %) met guideline criteria for genetic counseling of which 24 (36 %) were referred for genetic counseling. Of those referred, 13 (54 %) participants attended and eight (33 %) completed genetic testing. On multivariate logistic regression, referral was not associated with age, cancer stage, or race but was associated with clinical provider (p = 0.041). Most providers (71 %) had higher referral rates during the study compared to prior. The majority of participants found the experience useful (84 %), were more aware of their health risks (83 %), and were likely to recommend using a patient-facing platform to others (69 %). CONCLUSIONS: 65 % of patients attending breast cancer clinics in this study are at-risk for hereditary conditions based on current guidelines. Using a patient-facing risk assessment platform enhances the ability to identify these patients systematically and with widespread acceptability and recognized value by patients. As only a third of at-risk participants received referrals for genetic counseling, further understanding barriers to referral is needed to optimize hereditary risk assessment in oncology practices. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NIH Clinical Trials registry, NCT04639934 . Registered Nov 23, 2020 -- Retrospectively registered.

The Role of Health Technologies in Multicomponent Primary Care Interventions: Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Several countries around the world have implemented multicomponent interventions to enhance primary care, as a way of strengthening their health systems to cope with an aging chronically ill population and rising costs. Some of these efforts have included technology-based enhancements as one of the features to support the overall intervention, but their details and impacts have not been explored. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify the role of digital/health technologies within wider multifeature interventions that are aimed at enhancing primary care, and to describe their aims and stakeholders, types of technologies used, and potential impacts. METHODS: A systematic review was performed following Cochrane guidelines. An electronic search, conducted on May 30, 2019, was supplemented with manual and grey literature searches in December 2019, to identify multicomponent interventions that included at least one technology-based enhancement. After title/abstract and full text screening, selected articles were assessed for quality based on their study design. A descriptive narrative synthesis was used for analysis and presentation of the results. RESULTS: Of 37 articles, 14 (38%) described the inclusion of a technology-based innovation as part of their multicomponent interventions to enhance primary care. The most commonly identified technologies were the use of electronic health records, data monitoring technologies, and online portals with messaging platforms. The most common aim of these technologies was to improve continuity of care and comprehensiveness, which resulted in increased patient satisfaction, increased primary care visits compared to specialist visits, and the provision of more health prevention education and improved prescribing practices. Technologies seem also to increase costs and utilization for some parameters, such as increased consultation costs and increased number of drugs prescribed. CONCLUSIONS: Technologies and digital health have not played a major role within comprehensive innovation efforts aimed at enhancing primary care, reflecting that these technologies have not yet reached maturity or wider acceptance as a means for improving primary care. Stronger policy and financial support, and advocacy of key stakeholders are needed to encourage the introduction of efficient technological innovations, which are backed by evidence-based research, so that digital technologies can fulfill the promise of supporting strong sustainable primary care.

Changes in Informed Consent Policy and Treatment Delays in Stroke Thrombolysis.

OBJECTIVES: The efficacy of thrombolytic therapy with tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) is highly time dependent. Although clinical guidelines do not recommend written informed consent as it may cause treatment delays, local policy can supersede and require it. From 2014 to 2017, three out of five public hospitals in Singapore changed from written to verbal consent at different time points. We aimed to examine the association of hospital policy changes regarding informed consent on door-to-needle (DTN) times. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data from the Singapore Stroke Registry and surveys of local practice, we analyzed data of 915 acute ischemic stroke patients treated with tPA within 3 hours in all public hospitals between July 2014 to Dec 2017. Patient-level DTN times before and after policy changes were examined while adjusting for clinical characteristics, within-hospital clustering, and trends over time. RESULTS: Patient characteristics and stroke severity were similar before and after the policy changes. Overall, the median DTN times decreased from 68 to 53 minutes after the policy changes. After risk adjustment, changing from written to verbal informed consent was associated with a 5.6 minutes reduction (95% CI 1.1-10.0) in DTN times. After the policy changed, the percentage of patients with DTN ≤60 minutes and ≤45 minutes increased from 35.6% to 66.1% (adjusted OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.12-2.74) and 9.3% to 36.0% (adjusted OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.37-4.25), respectively. CONCLUSION: Changing from written to verbal consent is associated with significant improvement in the timeliness of tPA administration in acute ischemic stroke.

Living with long-term consequences: Experience of follow-up care and support needs among Asian long-term colorectal cancer survivors.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide an in-depth exploration of follow-up care experiences and supportive care needs in long-term colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors within multiethnic Asian communities. METHODS: Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted on a purposive sample of 30 long-term CRC survivors who had completed all treatment without recurrence ranging 2 to 17 years in Singapore. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis was conducted following grounded theory approach. RESULTS: Four themes represented the experience of the Asian long-term CRC survivors: (a) living with long-term consequences, (b) dealing with unceasing adaptation demands, (c) navigating a healthcare journey with limited direction, (d) regaining mastery through adversity. CRC and its treatment had profound physical impacts on some long-term survivors and these effected their psychological well-being. A sense of abandonment and vulnerability following the cessation of a 5-year follow-up care was repeatedly expressed. Participants defined recovery from CRC as not merely surviving but also having high physical function and full independence. They often sought less conventional remedies and medicine based on cultural beliefs rather than current evidence. Participants noted pervasive social stigma associated with CRC that impeded their inclusion in the workforce. CONCLUSIONS: Asian long-term CRC survivors experienced multiple challenges and needs relating to the care experience, information provision and workforce stigmatization, and several of which were unique to the Asian context. Future work will need to consider the implementation of culturally tailored cancer survivorship care plans that incorporate the specific needs of Asian CRC survivors.