Assessing agro-food system circularity using nutrient flows and budgets.

Nutrient reuse and recycling is a key strategy towards more circular and sustainable food systems and depends on the specific conditions of the area under study, such as geography and the type of agricultural system. In this study we analysed nutrient flows and assessed the circularity of a livestock-dominated and export-oriented agro-food system at different system levels and spatial scales. We quantified the nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) flows and soil balances in the Belgian agro-food system at the sub-regional, regional and national scale, and assessed five P-based indicators that capture different aspects of circularity: total inputs, phosphorus use efficiency, share of reused to total input, recycling rate, and losses. We found that nutrient soil balances depend on the type of agricultural system: areas with intense livestock production accumulate up to 108 kgN/ha, 4.8 kgP/ha and 150 kgK/ha in their soil annually, whereas areas of mostly arable production have low N and K surpluses of <20 kg/ha and P deficits of < -10 kg/ha. We further found that Wallonia, the southern region of the country that is characterized by lower livestock densities and a partial reuse of sewage sludge, outperforms the Flemish region in the North in all five indicators. The food system in the whole of Belgium has a 34% phosphorus use efficiency rate and a 63% overall recycling rate, while 84% of the total inputs in agriculture are from secondary sources. Our results show that the type of production system is the most crucial determinant for circularity, and highlight the benefit of working at different levels and spatial scales to capture all aspects of circularity in agro-food systems.

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs.

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios - the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture.

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture - Eur-Agri-SSPs - to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.

Coupling of crop and livestock production can reduce the agricultural GHG emission from smallholder farms.

Ensuring global food security and environmental sustainability is dependent upon the contribution of the world's hundred million smallholder farms, but the contributions of smallholder farms to global agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been understudied. We developed a localized agricultural life cycle assessment (LCA) database to calculate GHG emissions and made the first extensive assessment of the smallholder farms' GHG emission reduction potentials by coupling crop and livestock production (CCLP), a redesign of current practices toward sustainable agriculture in China. CCLP can reduce the GHG emission intensity by 17.67%, with its own feed and manure returning to the field as an essential path. Scenario analysis verified that greater GHG emission reduction (28.09%-41.32%) will be achieved by restructuring CCLP. Therefore, this mixed farming is a mode with broader benefits to provide sustainable agricultural practices for reducing GHG emissions fairly.

Rural livestock asset portfolio in northern Ethiopia: a microeconomic analysis of choice and accumulation.

Livestock fulfill different functions. Depending on their livelihood strategies, households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep and on accumulation of the chosen animal overtime. Using a panel data of 385 rural households in a mixed farming system in northern Ethiopia, this paper investigates the dynamic behavior of rural households' livestock holding to identify determinants of choice and accumulation of livestock overtime. Choice is analyzed for a principal animal, the animal that constituted the largest value of livestock assets a household possessed, using a multinomial logit model. Results indicate that rural households differ in their choice of what type of animal to keep. Agro-climatic conditions, sex and age of household head, presence of an adult male member in a household, and liquidity are the major factors that influence the type of principal animal households keep. Conditional on the principal animal selected, we analyzed the factors that determine the accumulation of the chosen animals by correcting for selection bias. Area of land cultivated is the most significant factor that explains the number of animals households keep. Other factors include sex of household head, diversification into nonfarm self-employment, and shocks.

Assessing the sustainability of forest management: an application of multi-criteria decision analysis to community forests in northern Ethiopia.

Continuous deterioration of the natural resource base has become a serious threat to both the ecological systems and economic production in Ethiopia. Many of these problems have been attributed directly or indirectly to the rapid dwindling of the country's forest cover which is associated with unsustainable forest use and management. Closing community woodlands from human and livestock intervention to promote natural regeneration of forests has been one of the environmental restoration strategies pursued in the degraded highland areas of northern Ethiopia. However, local pressure to use reforested community lands for economic benefit has become a major threat to forest sustainability. Using locally identified sets of criteria and indicators for sustainable community forest management, this paper applies a multi-criteria decision analysis tool to evaluate forest management problems in the northern province of Tigray, Ethiopia. Three MCA methods - ranking, pair-wise comparison, and scoring - were used in evaluating the sets of criteria and indicators and alternative forest management scenarios. Results from the study indicate a number of noteworthy points: 1) MCA techniques both for identifying local level sustainability criteria and indicators and evaluating management schemes in a participatory decision environment appear to be effective tools to address local resource management problems; 2) Evaluated against the selected sets of criteria and indicators, the current forest management regime in the study area is not on a sustainable path; 3) Acquainting local people with adequate environmental knowledge and raising local awareness about the long-term consequences of environmental degradation ranked first among the set of sustainability criteria; and 4) In order to harmonize both environmental and economic objectives, the present 'ecological-biased' forest management regime needs to be substituted by an appropriate holistic scheme that takes into account stakeholders' multiple preferences and priority rankings.

Sustainable value assessment of farms using frontier efficiency benchmarks.

Appropriate assessment of firm sustainability facilitates actor-driven processes towards sustainable development. The methodology in this paper builds further on two proven methodologies for the assessment of sustainability performance: it combines the sustainable value approach with frontier efficiency benchmarks. The sustainable value methodology tries to relate firm performance to the use of different resources. This approach assesses contributions to corporate sustainability by comparing firm resource productivity with the resource productivity of a benchmark, and this for all resources considered. The efficiency is calculated by estimating the production frontier indicating the maximum feasible production possibilities. In this research, the sustainable value approach is combined with efficiency analysis methods to benchmark sustainability assessment. In this way, the production theoretical underpinnings of efficiency analysis enrich the sustainable value approach. The methodology is presented using two different functional forms: the Cobb-Douglas and the translog functional forms. The simplicity of the Cobb-Douglas functional form as benchmark is very attractive but it lacks flexibility. The translog functional form is more flexible but has the disadvantage that it requires a lot of data to avoid estimation problems. Using frontier methods for deriving firm specific benchmarks has the advantage that the particular situation of each company is taken into account when assessing sustainability. Finally, we showed that the methodology can be used as an integrative sustainability assessment tool for policy measures.

A dynamic view on agricultural trade patterns and virtual water flows in Peru.

Increasing integration in global markets can foster economic growth, but also impacts the use of water resources for the production of traded goods. This is particularly critical for low-and middle-income countries where increasing agricultural exports, especially of high-value horticultural products such as fresh fruits and vegetables is promoted as a pro-poor development strategy. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of agricultural trade to virtual water flows and economic gains. The focus is on Peru and trade flows since 1986, as this represents a case of rapidly increasing trade flows and a rapidly changing product composition of trade. We consider long-term trade trends and changes in the product composition of trade, using a product classification, and analyze the implications for trade revenues, VW flows, blue and green water use, and economic water use efficiency. We use an innovative decomposition analysis to disentangle the drivers behind increased virtual water exports. We find that despite sharp increase in agricultural exports Peru is a net importer of virtual water, which implies that participation in international trade has been conducive for both economic growth and saving water resources at national level. We find agricultural exports to have a high economic water efficiency but to increase water scarcity and the use of blue water in producing regions. Our results imply that a focus on high-value export sectors is a valid development strategy for low- and middle-income countries from both an economic and a water perspective but that the strategic location of export production with respect to the availability of water is important for policy-makers to consider. Our approach confirms the importance of considering long-term dynamics and regional differences in research on virtual water trade.

Exploring future patterns of meat consumption.

The nutrition transition encompasses a set of major shifts in human diet and nutritional status, throughout history and that is influenced by a wide range of factors such as income, technical change, urbanisation and culture. High-income societies are witnessing a shift towards diets with more fat, sugar, processed foods and less fibre, leading to a sharp increase in non-communicable diseases, such as obesity. This trend can also be observed among the middle classes of emerging countries. However, increasing evidence suggests that a final shift is occurring, following behavioural change towards consuming higher-quality fats, more whole grains, fruit and vegetables, and particularly less meat. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, an assessment is made of where different countries are located in the different phases of the nutrition transition. Second, a qualitative investigation is made into the factors enhancing and hindering the latest phase of the transition-particularly towards less meat consumption-taking into account cultural differences between consumer groups across countries. The analysis of both objectives generates insights into possible future scenarios of meat consumption.

Life cycle assessment of a palm oil system with simultaneous production of biodiesel and cooking oil in Cameroon.

The use of palm oil as a biofuel has been heavily debated for its land-use conflict with nature and its competition with food production, being the number one cooking oil worldwide. In that context, we present a life cycle assessment of a palm oil production process yielding both biodiesel and cooking oil, incorporating the land-use impact and evaluating the effect of treating the palm oil mill effluent (POME) prior to disposal. The results show that the nonrenewable energy requirement, global warming potential (GWP; exclusive land-use change), and acidification potential are lower than those of the fossil alternative. However, the system triggers an increase in eutrophication potential (EP) compared to the fossil fuel reference. This system shows less energy requirement, global warming and acidification reduction, and less eutrophication increase compared to the reference than the same system converting all palm oil into biodiesel (no cooking oil production). The land occupation of palm oil triggers ecosystem quality (EQ) loss of 30-45% compared to the potential natural vegetation. Furthermore, such land-use change triggers a carbon debt neutralizing the GWP reduction for 45-53 years. The POME treatment scenarios reveal a trade-off between GWP and EP.

Environmental risk perception, environmental concern and propensity to participate in organic farming programmes.

This paper aims to identify the factors underlying farmers' propensity to participate in organic farming programmes in a Romanian rural region that confronts non-point source pollution. For this, we employ structural equation modelling with latent variables using a specific data set collected through an agri-environmental farm survey in 2001. The model includes one 'behavioural intention' latent variable ('propensity to participate in organic farming programmes') and five 'attitude' and 'socio-economic' latent variables ('socio-demographic characteristics', 'economic characteristics', 'agri-environmental information access', 'environmental risk perception' and 'general environmental concern'). The results indicate that, overall, the model has an adequate fit to the data. All loadings are statistically significant, supporting the theoretical basis for assignment of indicators for each latent variable. The significance tests for the structural model parameters show 'environmental risk perception' as the strongest determinant of farmers' propensity to participate in organic farming programmes.