Rethinking forest monitoring for more meaningful global forest landscape change assessments.

Forest ecosystems play an indispensable role in addressing various pressing sustainability and social-ecological challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem services deterioration, hence the monitoring of the world's forests is crucial. As part of the global forest assessment workflow, a forest is generally classified and mapped based on land use and/or using a tree canopy cover threshold. In this paper, we examine the limitations of this approach and argue that the use of a land use-based forest definition and tree canopy cover thresholds can overlook forest degradation and enhancement, disguise the actual status of forest landscapes, and misinform management planning. These limitations can delay the development and implementation of forest restoration and conservation measures. To help overcome these issues, we propose some enhancements to the global forest assessment workflow, including the sharing of spatial data and inclusion of tree canopy cover estimates in assessment reports. Such enhancements are needed to achieve more meaningful forest monitoring and reporting in the context of global environmental initiatives, such as those related to climate change mitigation and adaptation, forest restoration, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem services monitoring.

A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography.

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.

Un Modelo Empírico Espacialmente Explícito de Procesos de Desarrollo Estructural en Bosques Naturales Basado en el Clima y la Topografía Resumen La estructura de un rodal se desarrolla con la edad. Los bosques maduros con una estructura bien desarrollada dan sustento a muchas especies. Sin embargo, las tasas de desarrollo de los rodales probablemente varían con el clima y la topografía. Modelamos el desarrollo estructural de 4 variables clave de un rodal y un índice de crecimiento antiguo compuesto como funciones de covariables climáticas y topográficas. Utilizamos un método bayesiano jerárquico para analizar datos (n = 9,244) en fotografías del inventario nacional forestal (INF) de Japón para entender las diferencias en la edad de los rodales. Las tasas de desarrollo de las variables estructurales y el índice de crecimiento antiguo mostraron respuestas curvilíneas a las covariables ambientales. Los sitios planos se caracterizaron por altas tasas de desarrollo estructural. Por lo general, se requerían 150 años para alcanzar valores altos (∼0.8) en el índice de crecimiento antiguo. Sin embargo, la edad prevista para alcanzar valores específicos varió dependiendo de las condiciones ambientales. Las predicciones espaciales pusieron de relieve la variación regional en las potenciales tasas de desarrollo estructural. Por ejemplo, a veces había diferencia de >100 años entre sitios, aun en la misma cuenca, en el consecución de un valor de índice medio (0.5) después de la cosecha de madera. Los datos de INF sugieren que los bosques naturales, especialmente los bosques maduros (>150 años) permanecen generalmente en crestas improductivas, pendientes pronunciadas o en áreas con baja temperatura y nieve profunda, donde muchas variables estructurales muestran tasas de desarrollo lentas. Sugerimos que el mantenimiento y la restauración de bosques naturales maduros en sitios planos deben priorizarse para conservación debido al probable desarrollo rápido de la estructura del rodal, aunque los bosques naturales restantes en sitios de baja productividad también son importantes y deben ser protegidos.

Estimation of spatio-temporal distribution of 137Cs concentrations in litter layer of forest ecosystems in Fukushima using FoRothCs model.

The nuclear power plant accident in Fukushima had led to pollution of forest ecosystems with 137Cs in 2011. In this study, we simulated the spatiotemporal distribution of 137Cs concentrations of litter layer in the contaminated forest ecosystems in two decades from 2011, which is one of the key environmental components of 137Cs migration in the environment due to the high bioavailability of 137Cs in the litter. Our simulations showed that 137Cs deposition is the most important factor in the degree of contamination of the litter layer but vegetation type (evergreen coniferous/deciduous broadleaf) and mean annual temperature are also important for changes over time. Deciduous broadleaf trees had higher initial concentrations in the litter layer due to the direct initial deposition on the forest floor. However, the concentrations remained higher than those in evergreen conifers after 10 years due to redistribution of 137Cs by vegetation. Moreover, areas with lower average annual temperatures and lower litter decomposition activity retained higher 137Cs concentrations in the litter layer. The results of the spatiotemporal distribution estimation of the radioecological model suggest that, in addition to 137Cs deposition, elevation and vegetation distribution should also be considered in the long-term management of contaminated watersheds, which can be informative in identifying hotspots of 137Cs contamination on a long-term scale.

Assessment of potentially reusable edible wild plant and mushroom gathering sites in eastern Fukushima based on external radiation dose.

Edible wild plant/mushroom gathering, an essential food acquisition and outdoor recreation activity in rural areas, has declined in the area near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident in eastern Japan. The present study first evaluated the spatial distribution of potential gathering sites of various edible wild plant/mushroom species before the accident by administering a face-to-face questionnaire survey to local gatherers as well as utilizing the group analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information systems (GIS). Then, the damage to and future reusability of previous gathering sites were estimated from the perspective of the external radiation dose by overlaying maps of potential gathering sites and the time-series air dose rate (ADR) up to 2050 incorporating different gathering frequency scenarios. The study area is located in Kawauchi village in the eastern Fukushima prefecture, at 12-30 km southwest of FDNPP. The spatial distributions of gathering sites before the accident differed widely among species at the local scale because of their different environmental preferences. In contrast, the temporal variation in the reusability of the gathering sites was notably small among different species. The external radiation dose in the potential gathering sites declined sharply in the early post-accident years and gradually in the later years through the physical decay of radiocesium, i.e., 134Cs and 137Cs, with different half-lives. Moreover, the gathering frequency and heterogeneous distribution of radiocesium substantially affected the temporal variation in reusability for the gathering sites. These results indicate that an early resumption of gathering would be possible by reducing the gathering frequency and avoiding higher ADR areas, whereas it will take a much longer period to resume gathering in areas with higher ADR. Further research is required that considers both internal and external radiation doses in the geospatial context for the restoration and safer use of edible wild plants/mushrooms.

Effects of species and geo-information on the 137Cs concentrations in edible wild mushrooms and plants collected by residents after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), much of the wild and edible mushrooms and plants in the surrounding areas were contaminated with radiocesium (137Cs). To elucidate their concentration characteristics, we analyzed 137Cs radioactivity data in edible forest products brought in for food inspection by the residents of Kawauchi Village, 12-30 km away from the FDNPP, from 2012 to 2019. A Bayesian model to estimate 137Cs concentration was constructed. Parameters of the normalized concentration of species (NCsp) for mushrooms were similar to those of the same species obtained in a previous study. Although NCsp values were highly varied among species, mycorrhizal mushrooms tended to have high NCsp values, followed by saprotrophic mushrooms, and wild edible plants values were low. Also, half of mycorrhizal mushroom species (8 of 16) showed an increasing trend in concentration with time; however, saprotrophic mushrooms and wild plants generally demonstrated a decreasing trend (22 of 24). The model considering the sub-village location information decreased the error of individual samples by 40% compared to the model not considering any location information, indicating that the detailed geo-information improved estimation accuracy. Our results indicate that the radioactivity data from samples collected by local residents can be used to accurately assess internal exposure to radiation due to self-consumption of contaminated wild mushrooms and plants.

New predictions of 137Cs dynamics in forests after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

Most of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident is covered by forest. In this paper, we updated model predictions of temporal changes in the 137Cs dynamics using the latest observation data and newly provided maps of the predicted 137Cs activity concentration for wood, which is the most commercially important part of the tree body. Overall, the previous prediction and latest observation data were in very good agreement. However, further validation revealed that the migration from the soil surface organic layer to the mineral soil was overestimated for evergreen needleleaf forests. The new prediction of the 137Cs inventory showed that although the 137Cs distribution within forests differed among forest types in the first 5 years, the difference diminished in the later phase. Besides, the prediction of the wood 137Cs activity concentrations reproduced the different trends of the 137Cs activity concentrations for cedar, oak, and pine trees. Our simulation suggests that the changes of the wood 137Cs activity concentration over time will slow down after 5-10 years. Although the model uncertainty should be considered and monitoring and model updating must continue, the study provides helpful information on the 137Cs dynamics within forest ecosystems and the changes in wood contamination.

Temporal changes in the spatial patterns of air dose rate from 2012 to 2016 at forest floors in Fukushima, Japan.

This study investigates temporal changes in the distribution of air dose rates at forest floors from 2012 to 2016 by measuring air dose rates at a height of 10 cm. The study was conducted at four different topography forest sites in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. At each forest site, the air dose rate was found to have decreased by 7%-22% over time from 2012 to 2016 owing to the movement of radiocesium from organic layers to mineral soil layers in the forest site. However, the spatial distribution patterns of air dose rates did not change at these forest sites over five years. Besides, high correlations between air dose rates and organic plus surface mineral soil inventories were found at these forest sites during most of study years. Therefore, little changes in the spatial distribution of air dose rates could be caused by radiocesium retention at the same location in these forest sites. No statistical correlation between air dose rates and slope gradients was found in the two hilly forest sites with steep slopes above 35°. Accordingly, this study shows that the distribution patterns of air dose rates in the forest floors remained stable depending on the spatial distribution of radiocesium, which formed in the early phase after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident.

The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident.