Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

Simulated hurricane-induced changes in light and nutrient regimes change seedling performance in Everglades forest-dominant species.

Wind damage from cyclones can devastate the forest canopy, altering environmental conditions in the understory that affect seedling growth and plant community regeneration. To investigate the impact of hurricane-induced increases in light and soil nutrients as a result of canopy defoliation, we conducted a two-way factorial light and nutrient manipulation in a shadehouse experiment. We measured seedling growth of the dominant canopy species in the four Everglades forest communities: pine rocklands (Pinus elliottii var densa), cypress domes (Taxodium distichum), hardwood hammocks, and tree islands (Quercus virginiana and Bursera simaruba). Light levels were full sun and 50% shade, and nutrient levels coupled with an additional set of individuals that were subjected to a treatment mimicking the sudden effects of canopy opening from hurricane-induced defoliation and the corresponding nutrient pulse. Seedlings were measured weekly for height growth and photosynthesis, with seedlings being harvested after 16 weeks for biomass, leaf area, and leaf tissue N and 13C isotope ratio. Growth rates and biomass accumulation responded more to differences in soil nutrients than differences in light availability, with largest individuals being in the high nutrient treatments. For B. simaruba and P. elliottii, the highest photosynthetic rates occurred in the high light, high nutrient treatment, while T. distichum and Q. virginiana photosynthetic rates were highest in low light, high nutrient treatment. Tissue biomass allocation patterns remained similar across treatments, except for Q. virginiana, which altered above- and belowground biomass allocation to increase capture of limiting soil and light resources. In response to the hurricane simulation treatment, height growth increased rapidly for Q. virginiana and B. simaruba, with nonsignificant increases for the other two species. We show here that ultimately, hurricane-adapted, tropical species may be more likely to recolonize the forest canopy following a large-scale hurricane disturbance.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants.

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

NDVI Changes Show Warming Increases the Length of the Green Season at Tundra Communities in Northern Alaska: A Fine-Scale Analysis.

A warming Arctic has been associated with increases in aboveground plant biomass, specifically shrubs, and changes in vegetation cover. However, the magnitude and direction of changes in NDVI have not been consistent across different tundra types. Here we examine the responsiveness of fine-scale NDVI values to experimental warming at eight sites in northern Alaska, United States. Warming in our eight sites ranged in duration from 2­23 seasons. Dry, wet and moist tundra communities were monitored for canopy surface temperatures and NDVI in ambient and experimentally-warmed plots at near-daily frequencies during the summer of 2017 to assess the impact of the warming treatment on the magnitude and timing of greening. Experimental warming increased canopy-level surface temperatures across all sites (+0.47 to +3.14˚C), with the strongest warming effect occurring during June and July and for the southernmost sites. Green-up was accelerated by warming at six sites, and autumn senescence was delayed at five sites. Warming increased the magnitude of peak NDVI values at five sites, decreased it at one site, and at two sites it did not change. Warming resulted in earlier peak NDVI at three sites and no significant change in the other sites. Shrub and graminoid cover was positively correlated with the magnitude of peak NDVI (r=0.37 to 0.60) while cryptogam influence was mixed. The magnitude and timing of peak NDVI showed considerable variability across sites. Warming extended the duration of the summer green season at most sites due to accelerated greening in the spring and delayed senescence in the autumn. We show that in a warmer Arctic (as simulated by our experiment) the timing and total period of carbon gain may change. Our results suggest these changes are dependent on community composition and abundance of specific growth forms and therefore will likely impact net primary productivity and trophic interactions.

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation.

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes.