Rigorous Clinical Trial Design in Public Health Emergencies Is Essential.

Randomized clinical trials are the most reliable approaches to evaluating the effects of new treatments and vaccines. During the 2014-2015 West African Ebola epidemic, many argued that such trials were neither ethical nor feasible in an environment of limited health infrastructure and severe disease with a high fatality rate. Consensus among the numerous organizations providing help to the affected areas was never achieved, resulting in fragmented collaboration, delayed study initiation, and ultimately failure to provide definitive evidence on the efficacy of treatments and vaccines. Randomized trials were in fact approved by local ethics boards and initiated, demonstrating that randomized trials, even in such difficult circumstances, are feasible. Improved planning and collaboration among research and humanitarian organizations, and affected communities, in the interepidemic periods are needed to ensure that questions regarding the efficacy of vaccines and treatments can be definitively answered during future public health emergencies.

A CD4(+) T-cell immune response to a conserved epitope in the circumsporozoite protein correlates with protection from natural Plasmodium falciparum infection and disease.

Many human T-cell responses specific for epitopes in Plasmodium falciparum have been described, but none has yet been shown to be predictive of protection against natural malaria infection. Here we report a peptide-specific T-cell assay that is strongly associated with protection of humans in The Gambia, West Africa, from both malaria infection and disease. The assay detects interferon-gamma-secreting CD4(+) T cells specific for a conserved sequence from the circumsporozoite protein, which binds to many human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR types. The correlation was observed using a cultured, rather than an ex vivo, ELISPOT assay that measures central memory-'type T cells rather than activated effector T cells. These findings provide direct evidence for a protective role for CD4(+) T cells in humans, and a precise target for the design of improved vaccines against P. falciparum.

A Focus on the Reminiscence Bump to Personalize Music Playlists for Dementia.

PURPOSE: Music and memory are inextricably linked, and the recollection of music varies according to age. In order to create personalized music playlists tailored for people living with dementia, this study aimed to determine the age at which healthy individuals could best recall music that was popular at the time. METHODS: A survey was designed asking participants to identify the number of songs they recalled from a random selection of 10 from the 100 most popular songs from each year, presented in random order of years, from 1945 to 2015. Of the 311 individuals born between 1929 and 2002, who responded to the survey, 157 met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: The median peak of recollection was between the ages of 13 and 19 across all age-cohorts, with participants recalling a maximum median number of 6-8 songs in all of the age-cohorts. There was no evidence of a difference in the peak age of recollection between those who recognized seven or more songs in at least 1 year and those who recognized fewer than seven songs in all years. CONCLUSION: The peak of recollection of popular music occurs in the teenage years, regardless of era of birth. Music from this "reminiscence bump" provides a rich source of retained music that should be tapped when creating playlists of meaningful music for people living with dementia.

Training needs assessment for clinicians at antiretroviral therapy clinics: evidence from a national survey in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: To increase access to antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings, several experts recommend "task shifting" from doctors to clinical officers, nurses and midwives. This study sought to identify task shifting that has already occurred and assess the antiretroviral therapy training needs among clinicians to whom tasks have shifted. METHODS: The Infectious Diseases Institute, in collaboration with the Ugandan Ministry of Health, surveyed health professionals and heads of antiretroviral therapy clinics at a stratified random sample of 44 health facilities accredited to provide this therapy. A sample of 265 doctors, clinical officers, nurses and midwives reported on tasks they performed, previous human immunodeficiency virus training, and self-assessment of knowledge of human immunodeficiency virus and antiretroviral therapy. Heads of the antiretroviral therapy clinics reported on clinic characteristics. RESULTS: Thirty of 33 doctors (91%), 24 of 40 clinical officers (60%), 16 of 114 nurses (14%) and 13 of 54 midwives (24%) who worked in accredited antiretroviral therapy clinics reported that they prescribed this therapy (p<0.001). Sixty-four percent of the people who prescribed antiretroviral therapy were not doctors. Among professionals who prescribed it, 76% of doctors, 62% of clinical officers, 62% of nurses and 51% of midwives were trained in initiating patients on antiretroviral therapy (p=0.457); 73%, 46%, 50% and 23%, respectively, were trained in monitoring patients on the therapy (p=0.017). Seven percent of doctors, 42% of clinical officers, 35% of nurses and 77% of midwives assessed that their overall knowledge of antiretroviral therapy was lower than good (p=0.001). CONCLUSION: Training initiatives should be an integral part of the support for task shifting and ensure that antiretroviral therapy is used correctly and that toxicity or drug resistance do not reverse accomplishments to date.

Mapping of a novel susceptibility locus suggests a role for MC3R and CTSZ in human tuberculosis.

RATIONALE: Tuberculosis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. A better understanding of the mechanisms of disease protection could allow novel strategies to disease management and control. OBJECTIVES: To identify human genomic loci with evidence of linkage to tuberculosis susceptibility and, within these loci, to identify individual genes influencing tuberculosis susceptibility. METHODS: Affected sibling pair analysis in South African and Malawian populations. Independent case-control study in West Africa. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Two novel putative loci for tuberculosis susceptibility are identified: chromosome 6p21-q23 and chromosome 20q13.31-33--the latter with the strongest evidence for any locus reported to date in human tuberculosis (single point LOD score of 3.1, P = 10(-4), with a maximum likelihood score [MLS] of 2.8). An independent, multistage genetic association study in West African populations mapped this latter region in detail, finding evidence that variation in the melanocortin 3 receptor (MC3R) and cathepsin Z (CTSZ) genes play a role in the pathogenesis of tuberculosis. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate how a genomewide approach to the complex phenotype of human tuberculosis can identify novel targets for further research.

HIV progression and predictors of mortality in a community-based cohort of Zambian adults.

This article describes immunological HIV progression, mortality, and its predictors in 974 Zambian adults. During 3138 person-years of follow-up, 281 deaths occurred, and the overall mortality rate was 9.0 per 100 person-years. Thirty-six percent of patients were dead within 5 years of enrollment. The median survival in patients with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/mm³ was 5.62 years, with CD4 count between 200 and 499 cells/mm³ 5.46 years, and with CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ 3.89 years. The mortality rate increased significantly with older age (6.9 in patients <25 years, 9.3 in individuals aged 25-39 years, 10.2 in patients ≥40 years) and was higher in women (rate ratio 1.29). The median annual change of progression markers was -29.6 cells/mm³ for CD4 count, -3.0% for CD4 count percentage, 1.2 nmol/L for neopterin, -1.9 g/L for hemoglobin, and -70 cells/mm³ for total lymphocyte count. Hemoglobin and neopterin were as accurate as CD4 count to predict mortality.

Mature CD8(+) T lymphocyte response to viral infection during fetal life.

Immunization of newborns against viral infections may be hampered by ineffective CD8(+) T cell responses. To characterize the function of CD8(+) T lymphocytes in early life, we studied newborns with congenital human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection. We demonstrate that HCMV infection in utero leads to the expansion and the differentiation of mature HCMV-specific CD8(+) T cells, which have similar characteristics to those detected in adults. High frequencies of HCMV-specific CD8(+) T cells were detected by ex vivo tetramer staining as early as after 28 weeks of gestation. During the acute phase of infection, these cells had an early differentiation phenotype (CD28(-)CD27(+)CD45RO(+), perforin(low)), and they acquired a late differentiation phenotype (CD28(-)CD27(-)CD45RA(+), perforin(high)) during the course of the infection. The differentiated cells showed potent perforin-dependent cytolytic activity and produced antiviral cytokines. The finding of a mature and functional CD8(+) T cell response to HCMV suggests that the machinery required to prime such responses is in place during fetal life and could be used to immunize newborns against viral pathogens.

ESAT-6 and CFP-10 can be combined to reduce the cost of testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but CFP-10 responses associate with active disease.

Commercial tests measuring IFN-gamma responses to ESAT-6 and CFP-10 are available for diagnosing Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Measures that minimize cost and complexity will facilitate their application in less-developed countries. We investigated whether overlapping peptides representing both ESAT-6 and CFP-10 are required to detect M. tuberculosis infection in a high TB-burden country, and whether they can be combined in a single pool. ESAT-6 and CFP-10 peptides were compared in IFN-gamma enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) in 183 HIV-negative smear-positive TB cases and 1673 HIV-negative household contacts. Separate peptide pools for each antigen were compared with a combined pool in 498 contacts. Forty per cent of responsive contacts recognized both antigens, 51% only ESAT-6 and 10% only CFP-10, whereas 56% of responsive cases recognized both antigens, 30% only ESAT-6 and 13% only CFP-10. Accordingly, CFP-10 response rates were higher for TB cases (odds ratio 2.409, P<0.001). Low purified protein derivative response rates indicated that responses to CFP-10 only were non-specific in contacts. Agreement between peptides in separate versus combined pools was good (kappa=0.758, r=0.840). Therefore a combined ESAT-6/CFP-10 peptide pool provided maximum sensitivity and efficiency, but CFP-10 was mainly required to detect active disease.

Reversion of the ELISPOT test after treatment in Gambian tuberculosis cases.

BACKGROUND: New tools are required to improve tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment, including enhanced ability to compare new treatment strategies. The ELISPOT assay uses Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific antigens to produce a precise quantitative readout of the immune response to pathogen. We hypothesized that TB patients in The Gambia would have reduced ELISPOT counts after successful treatment. METHODS: We recruited Gambian adults with sputum smear and culture positive tuberculosis for ELISPOT assay and HIV test, and followed them up one year later to repeat testing and document treatment outcome. We used ESAT-6, CFP-10 and Purified Protein Derivative (PPD) as stimulatory antigens. We confirmed the reliability of our assay in 23 volunteers through 2 tests one week apart, comparing within and between subject variation. RESULTS: We performed an ELISPOT test at diagnosis and 12 months later in 89 patients. At recruitment, 70/85 HIV-negative patients (82%) were ESAT-6 or CFP-10 (EC) ELISPOT positive, 77 (90%) were PPD ELISPOT positive. Eighty-two cases (96%) successfully completed treatment: 44 (55%; p < 0.001) were EC ELISPOT negative at 12 months, 17 (21%; p = 0.051) were PPD ELISPOT negative. Sixty (73%) cured cases had a CFP-10 ELISPOT count decrease, 64 (78%) had an ESAT-6 ELISPOT count decrease, 58 (70%) had a PPD ELISPOT count decrease. There was a mean decline of 25, 44 and 47 SFU/2 x 105 cells for CFP-10, ESAT-6 and PPD respectively (p < 0.001 for all). Three of 4 HIV positive patients were cured, all 3 underwent ELISPOT reversion; all 4 not cured subjects (3 HIV-negative, 1 HIV positive) were ESAT-6, CFP-10 and PPD ELISPOT positive at 12 months. CONCLUSION: Successful tuberculosis treatment is accompanied by a significant reduction in the M. tuberculosis-specific antigen ELISPOT count. The ELISPOT has potential as a proxy measure of TB treatment outcome. Further investigation into the decay kinetics of T-cells with treatment is warranted.

Stroke presentation and outcome in developing countries: a prospective study in the Gambia.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Despite increasing burden of stroke in Africa, prospective descriptive data are rare. Our objective was to describe, in The Gambia, the clinical outcome of stroke patients admitted to the Royal Victoria Teaching Hospital in the capital Banjul, to assess mortality and morbidity, and propose preventive and therapeutic measures. METHODS: Prospective data were collected on consecutive patients older than 15 years old admitted between February 2000 and February 2001 with the diagnosis of nonsubarachnoid stroke. Risk factors, clinical characteristics, and social consequences were assessed using a modified National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (mNIHSS), the Barthel Activity in Daily Living scale, the Siriraj score for subtypes, and the Bamford criteria for location/extension. Patients were followed-up at home up to 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: Ninety-one percent (148/162) of eligible patients were enrolled and followed-up. Hypertension and smoking were the most prevalent risk factors. Severity was high at admission, especially in women, and was strongly correlated to the outcome. mNIHSS and consciousness level on admission were strong predictors of the mortality risk. Swallowing difficulties at admission, fever, lung infection, and no aspirin treatment were, independently, risk factors for a lethal outcome susceptible to being addressed by treatment. Mortality was 41% in-hospital and 62% after 1 year. In survivors, autonomy levels improved over time. Drug compliance was poor. At home, family members provided care. Long-term socioeconomic and cultural activities were affected in most patients. CONCLUSIONS: Case-fatality was high compared with Western cohorts. Preventive measures can be developed. Rational treatment, in the absence of head imaging for initial assessment, requires adapted protocols. Providers should be trained, both at hospital and community levels.

Quantitative T cell assay reflects infectious load of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in an endemic case contact model.

BACKGROUND: Currently, reliable efficacy markers for assessment of new interventions against tuberculosis (TB) are limited to disease and death. More precise measurement of the human immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection may be important. A qualitative enzyme-linked immunospot assay (ELISPOT) result for early secretory antigenic target 6 (ESAT-6) and culture filtrate protein 10 (CFP-10) offers improved specificity over the purified protein derivative (PPD) skin test reaction in the detection of M. tuberculosis infection. We evaluated the quantitative ELISPOT and PPD skin test responses to recent M. tuberculosis exposure. METHODS: We studied quantitative PPD skin test and PPD ELISPOT results in 1052 healthy household contacts of index patients with cases of sputum smear-positive and culture-positive TB in The Gambia, according to a positive or negative ex vivo interferon gamma ELISPOT response to M. tuberculosis-specific antigens (ESAT-6/CFP-10). We then studied the quantitative PPD skin test and PPD ELISPOT results in patient contacts who had positive ESAT-6/CFP-10 results against a natural exposure gradient according to sleeping proximity to a patient with TB. RESULTS: The number of positive results was significantly greater for both PPD skin test and PPD ELISPOT in ESAT-6/CFP-10-positive subjects, compared with others (P<.0001). However, when quantitative PPD skin test and PPD ELISPOT results were compared in ESAT-6/CFP-10-positive subjects, only the ELISPOT count was sensitive to the exposure gradient, increasing significantly according to exposure (P=.009). CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative ELISPOT response to PPD in specific-antigen-positive contacts of patients with TB reflects the infectious load of M. tuberculosis as a result of recent exposure. This finding offers new possibilities for assessment of the efficacy of new interventions, and adjustment should be made for it when relating the early immune response to progression to disease.

Polymorphism in IL1B: IL1B-511 association with tuberculosis and decreased lipopolysaccharide-induced IL-1beta in IFN-gamma primed ex-vivo whole blood assay.

To determine whether variation in two interleukin 1 family genes (IL1B and interleukin 1 receptor antagonist, IL1RN) is associated with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), two published polymorphisms at nucleotide positions -511 and +3953 in IL1B and one in the IL1RN 86 bp VNTR were genotyped in 335 smear positive Gambian TB patients, and 298 ethnically matched controls. All individuals were HIV negative. Decreased risk of pulmonary TB was associated with both heterozygosity and homozygosity for the IL1B-511-C allele (OR 0.66, P = 0.027, and OR 0.58, P = 0.015, respectively). Nonetheless, the C allele was present at a frequency of 0.66 in TB cases suggesting that whilst IL-1beta contributes to disease susceptibility, it is not the major factor. There was no association between the IL1B+3953-T/C polymorphism or the 86 bp IL1RN pentallelic repeat and TB in this population. Using an ex-vivo whole blood assay, healthy Gambian individuals who are homozygous for the IL1B-511-T allele failed to exhibit a significant increase in IL-1beta production in response to LPS after IFN-gamma priming.

Role of flies and provision of latrines in trachoma control: cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Eye-seeking flies have received much attention as possible trachoma vectors, but this remains unproved. We aimed to assess the role of eye-seeking flies as vectors of trachoma and to test provision of simple pit latrines, without additional health education, as a sustainable method of fly control. METHODS: In a community-based, cluster-randomised controlled trial, we recruited seven sets of three village clusters and randomly assigned them to either an intervention group that received regular insecticide spraying or provision of pit latrines (without additional health education) to each household, or to a control group with no intervention. Our primary outcomes were fly-eye contact and prevalence of active trachoma. Frequency of child fly-eye contact was monitored fortnightly. Whole communities were screened for clinical signs of trachoma at baseline and after 6 months. Analysis was per protocol. FINDINGS: Of 7080 people recruited, 6087 (86%) were screened at follow-up. Baseline community prevalence of active trachoma was 6%. The number of Musca sorbens flies caught from children's eyes was reduced by 88% (95% CI 64-100; p<0.0001) by insecticide spraying and by 30% (7-52; p=0.04) by latrine provision by comparison with controls. Analysis of age-standardised trachoma prevalence rates at the cluster level (n=14) showed that spraying was associated with a mean reduction in trachoma prevalence of 56% (19-93; p=0.01) and 30% with latrines (-81 to 22; p=0.210) by comparison with the mean rate change in the controls. INTERPRETATION: Fly control with insecticide is effective at reducing the number of flies caught from children's eyes and is associated with substantially lower trachoma prevalence compared with controls. Such a finding is consistent with flies being important vectors of trachoma. Since latrine provision without health education was associated with a significant reduction in fly-eye contact by M sorbens, studies of their effect when combined with other trachoma control measures are warranted.

Large-scale evaluation of enzyme-linked immunospot assay and skin test for diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection against a gradient of exposure in The Gambia.

The purified protein derivative (PPD) skin test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection lacks specificity. We assessed 2 more specific M. tuberculosis antigens (ESAT-6 and CFP-10) by enzyme-linked immunospot assay (ELISPOT) compared with PPD by ELISPOT and skin test in The Gambia. Of 735 household contacts of 130 sputum smear-positive tuberculosis cases, 476 (65%) tested positive by PPD ELISPOT, 300 (41%) tested positive by PPD skin test, and 218 (30%) tested positive by ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT. Only 15 (2%) had positive ESAT-6/CFP-10 results and negative PPD results by ELISPOT. With increasing M. tuberculosis exposure, the percentage of subjects who were PPD skin test positive/ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT negative increased (P<.001), whereas the percentage of subjects who were PPD skin test negative/PPD ELISPOT positive decreased (P=.011). Eighteen (31%) ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT-positive subjects in the lowest exposure category had negative PPD skin test results. ESAT-6/CFP-10 ELISPOT probably offers increased specificity in the diagnosis of M. tuberculosis infection in this tropical setting of endemicity, at the cost of some sensitivity.

Safety and immunogenicity of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in combination with diphtheria, tetanus toxoid, pertussis and Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal polysaccharide/protein conjugate vaccines (PnCV) are immunogenic and effective in infancy. However, an addition to the nine currently recommended vaccine injections during the first year of life of African children may be a deterrent to participation in a PnCV program. Thus we have evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of a 9-valent PnCV (Wyeth Lederle Pediatrics and Vaccines) mixed with diphtheria, tetanus toxoid, cell pertussis and type b (TETRAMUNE). METHODS: Healthy Gambian infants were randomized at the age of 2 months to receive three doses 1 month apart of either (1) placebo reconstituted in TETRAMUNE in the right thigh (control) or (2) PnCV in the left thigh and TETRAMUNE in the right thigh (separate) or (3) PnCV reconstituted in TETRAMUNE as a single injection in the right thigh (combined). The vaccines were given together with routine Expanded Program on Immunization vaccines. Adverse reactions were recorded after vaccination, and antibody concentrations were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. RESULTS: Local induration and tenderness were observed more commonly at the site of injection of TETRAMUNE than at the site of injection with PnCV after each dose of vaccination. Swelling at the site of injection was encountered more frequently at the site of administration of TETRAMUNE than at the site of administration PnCV ( P< 0.00001 for Doses 1 and 2 and P< 0.0009 for Dose 3). Swelling at the site of administration of TETRAMUNE mixed with PnCV was comparable with that observed for TETRAMUNE alone. Although most mothers reported that the babies "felt hot" 24 h after each injection, febrile reactions (temperature, >or=38 degrees C) were infrequent and resolved with antipyretics. Geometric mean titer for anti-polyribosylribitol phosphate antibody was 11.6 microg/ml [95% confidence limits (95% CI), 9.2, 14.6] in the control group and comparable with 13.3 microg/ml (95% CI 11.0, 16.0) in the combined group and significantly higher at 17.9 microg/ml (95% CI 14.7, 21.9; P= 0.01) in the separate group. Geometric mean concentrations of serotype-specific pneumococcal antibodies were higher in the combined group than the separate group for all nine serotypes. Antibody responses to diphtheria and pertussis antigens were similar in all groups. Anti-tetanus toxoid antibody concentrations were lowest in the combined group (6.66 IU/ml, 95% CI 5.77, 7.68 in the control group; 5.15 IU/ml, 95% CI 4.39, 6.03 in the combined group; P= 0.02). However, all vaccinees achieved protective antibody values. CONCLUSION: The combination of TETRAMUNE and PnCV is safe and immunogenic.

CD209 genetic polymorphism and tuberculosis disease.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. DC-SIGN, encoded by CD209, is a receptor capable of binding and internalizing Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Previous studies have reported that the CD209 promoter single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-336A/G exerts an effect on CD209 expression and is associated with human susceptibility to dengue, HIV-1 and tuberculosis in humans. The present study investigates the role of the CD209 -336A/G variant in susceptibility to tuberculosis in a large sample of individuals from sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A total of 2,176 individuals enrolled in tuberculosis case-control studies from four sub-Saharan Africa countries were genotyped for the CD209 -336A/G SNP (rs4804803). Significant overall protection against pulmonary tuberculosis was observed with the -336G allele when the study groups were combined (n = 914 controls vs. 1262 cases, Mantel-Haenszel 2 x 2 chi(2) = 7.47, P = 0.006, odds ratio = 0.86, 95%CI 0.77-0.96). In addition, the patients with -336GG were associated with a decreased risk of cavitory tuberculosis, a severe form of tuberculosis disease (n = 557, Pearson's 2x2 chi(2) = 17.34, P = 0.00003, odds ratio = 0.42, 95%CI 0.27-0.65). This direction of association is opposite to a previously observed result in a smaller study of susceptibility to tuberculosis in a South African Coloured population, but entirely in keeping with the previously observed protective effect of the -336G allele. CONCLUSION: This study finds that the CD209 -336G variant allele is associated with significant protection against tuberculosis in individuals from sub-Saharan Africa and, furthermore, cases with -336GG were significantly less likely to develop tuberculosis-induced lung cavitation. Previous in vitro work demonstrated that the promoter variant -336G allele causes down-regulation of CD209 mRNA expression. Our present work suggests that decreased levels of the DC-SIGN receptor may therefore be protective against both clinical tuberculosis in general and cavitory tuberculosis disease in particular. This is consistent with evidence that Mycobacteria can utilize DC-SIGN binding to suppress the protective pro-inflammatory immune response.

Progression to active tuberculosis, but not transmission, varies by Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineage in The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable variability in the outcome of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. We hypothesized that Mycobacterium africanum was less likely than M. tuberculosis to transmit and progress to tuberculosis disease. METHODS: In a cohort study of patients with tuberculosis and their household contacts in The Gambia, we categorized 1808 HIV-negative tuberculosis contacts according to exposure to M. tuberculosis or M. africanum. Positive skin test results indicated transmission, and development of tuberculosis during 2 years of follow-up indicated progression to disease. RESULTS: Transmission rates were similar, but rates of progression to disease were significantly lower in contacts exposed to M. africanum than in those exposed to M. tuberculosis (1.0% vs. 2.9%; hazard ratio [HR], 3.1 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-8.7]). Within M. tuberculosis sensu stricto, contacts exposed to a Beijing family strain were most likely to progress to disease (5.6%; HR relative to M. africanum, 6.7 [95% CI, 2.0-22]). CONCLUSIONS: M. africanum and M. tuberculosis transmit equally well to household contacts, but contacts exposed to M. africanum are less likely to progress to tuberculosis disease than those exposed to M. tuberculosis. The variable rate of progression by lineage suggests that tuberculosis variability matters in clinical settings and should be accounted for in studies evaluating tuberculosis vaccines and treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection.