Probabilistic Description of Streamflow and Active Length Regimes in Rivers.

In spite of the prevalence of temporary rivers over a wide range of climatic conditions, they represent a relatively understudied fraction of the global river network. Here, we exploit a well-established hydrological model and a derived distribution approach to develop a coupled probabilistic description for the dynamics of the catchment discharge and the corresponding active network length. Analytical expressions for the flow duration curve (FDC) and the stream length duration curve (SLDC) were derived and used to provide a consistent classification of streamflow and active length regimes in temporary rivers. Two distinct streamflow regimes (persistent and erratic) and three different types of active length regimes (ephemeral, perennial, and ephemeral de facto) were identified depending on the value of two dimensionless parameters. These key parameters, which are related to the underlying streamflow fluctuations and the sensitivity of active length to changes in the catchment discharge (here quantified by the scaling exponent b), originate seven different behavioral classes characterized by contrasting shapes of the underlying SLDCs and FDCs. The analytical model was tested using data gathered in three study catchments located in Italy and USA, with satisfactory model performances in most cases. Our analytical and empirical results show the existence of a structural relationship between streamflow and active length regimes, which is chiefly modulated by the scaling exponent b. The proposed framework represents a promising tool for the coupled analysis of discharge and river network length dynamics in temporary streams.

Monitoring and Modeling Drainage Network Contraction and Dry Down in Mediterranean Headwater Catchments.

Understanding the expansion and contraction dynamics of flowing drainage networks is important for many research fields like ecology, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. This study analyzes for the first time the network shrinking and dry down in two seasonally dry hot-summer Mediterranean catchments (overall area 1.15 km2) using a comprehensive approach based on monitoring and modeling of the flowing network. A field campaign consisting of 19 subweekly visual surveys was carried out in the early summer of 2019. These observations were used to calibrate and validate an integrated model aimed to estimate the time evolution of the total flowing drainage network length based on meteorological drivers and define the position of the stretches with flowing water based on topographic and geological information. We used a statistical model to describe the observed variations in the total flowing length based on the accumulated difference between antecedent precipitation and evapotranspiration. The study emphasizes the relevant role of evapotranspiration in the seasonal network contraction. Then, we modeled spatial patterns of the flowing channels using an empirical approach based on topographic data, achieving satisfactory performances. Nevertheless, the performance further increased when site-specific geological information was integrated into the model, leading to accuracies up to 92% for cell-by-cell comparisons. The proposed methodology, which combines meteorological, topographic, and geological information in a sequential manner, was able to accurately represent the space-time dynamics of the flowing drainage network in the study area, proving to be an effective and flexible tool for investigating network dynamics in temporary streams.

A modular approach for vulnerability assessment in Southern Italy: A forest fire hazard scenario.

Vulnerability is an important component for risk assessment, representing the main element in the perception of the risk. This paper shows a methodological approach to describe a composite vulnerability index suitable to be used at the census scale. The aim of this study is threefold: at first, a new administrative limit, "Territorial Context" (TC), for the purpose of the emergency management is investigated. Second, it improves the common vulnerability methods applying different weights and a new approach of vulnerability levels classification by using fuzzy analysis. Finally, it provides vulnerability maps, which represent a simple way to identify areas where the capacity to cope with a hazard, during an event, is strongly influenced by social and territorial conditions and the road infrastructure accessibility. The proposed TC Vulnerability Index (TCVI) aggregates three indices to capture the complex realities of the investigated system that cannot be adequately quantified by a single index. Specifically, two indices measure the social (TCVIpeople) and territorial (TCVIexposure) vulnerability through an inductive approach based on the principal component analysis. The third index (TCVIemergency) provides a measure of the emergency management operating system, essentially based on the possibility of moving to safe areas, for citizens, or to coordination centers and risk areas, for rescuers. Results show notable differences in the spatial distribution of vulnerability, highlighting the multidimensionality and heterogeneity of the census area characteristics. These findings would provide a scientific base for the public decision-makers to implement.

Multiscale assessment of the impact on air quality of an intense wildfire season in southern Italy.

The summer of 2017 in the Calabria Region (South Italy) was an exceptional wildfire season with the largest area burned by wildfires in the last 11 years (2008-2019). The equivalent black carbon (EBC) and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements, recorded at the high-altitude Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Monte Curcio (MCU) regional station, were analyzed to establish the wildfires' impact on air quality, human health, and the ecosystem. A method was applied to identify the possible wildfires that influenced the air quality based on the integration of fire data (both satellite and ground-based) and the high-resolution WRF-HYSPLIT trajectories. The satellite-based fires applied to WRF-HYSPLIT with 10 km of spatial resolution allowed us to establish that for 52.5% of total cases, wildfires were located outside the Calabria Region, and they were influenced by long-range transport. Nonetheless, the impact on human health, qualitatively evaluated in terms of passively smoked cigarettes (PSC) corresponding to the EBC, was greater when wildfires were local. Indeed, for wildfires located mainly in Calabria, the equivalent PSC ranged from 2.75 to 11.08. This maximum PSC value was close to the daily number of smoked cigarettes in Calabria (approximately 12.4). Even if this analogy does not imply a proportional effect between the estimated number of cigarettes smoked and the effective wildfire EBC exposure, this result suggests that wildfire emissions may have negative effects on people's health. Moreover, a focus on the Calabria Region was conducted using high-resolution ground-based GPS and higher resolution WRF-HYSPLIT back-trajectories (2 km) to measure wildfires. The validity of the methodology was confirmed by the EBC and CO positive correlation with the ratio between the identified ground-based burned areas and the distance from the sampling station. Moreover, the impact on the ecosystem was studied by analyzing the land vegetation loss due to the wildfires that contributed to air quality reduction at the MCU station. A total of more than 1679 ha of vegetation burned, the main losses comprising forests and shrubland.

Hierarchical climate-driven dynamics of the active channel length in temporary streams.

Looking across a landscape, river networks appear deceptively static. However, flowing streams expand and contract following ever-changing hydrological conditions of the surrounding environment. Despite the ecological and biogeochemical value of rivers with discontinuous flow, deciphering the temporary nature of streams and quantifying their extent remains challenging. Using a unique observational dataset spanning diverse geomorphoclimatic settings, we demonstrate the existence of a general hierarchical structuring of river network dynamics. Specifically, temporary stream activation follows a fixed and repeatable sequence, in which the least persistent sections activate only when the most persistent ones are already flowing. This hierarchical phenomenon not only facilitates monitoring activities, but enables the development of a general mathematical framework that elucidates how climate drives temporal variations in the active stream length. As the climate gets drier, the average fraction of the flowing network decreases while its relative variability increases. Our study provides a novel conceptual basis for characterizing temporary streams and quantifying their ecological and biogeochemical impacts.