Cure indicators and prevalence by stage at diagnosis for breast and colorectal cancer patients: A population-based study in Italy.

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination.

Indicators of cure for women living after uterine and ovarian cancers: a population-based study.

This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynaecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate Net Survival (NS), Cure Fraction, Time To Cure (5-year conditional NS>95%), Cure Prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and Already Cured (living longer than Time to Cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121,704) of Italian women were alive after corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52,551) after cervical, and 0.2% (52,153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (Cure Prevalence). Women with gynaecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% after 5 years since diagnosis. The Cure Fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time To Cure was ≤10 years for women with gynaecological cancers aged <55 years. 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were Already Cured. These results will contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynaecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, its related social restriction measures and vaccination campaign on emergency department attendances for epileptic seizures: An interrupted time-series analysis.

AIM: To investigate the impact of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, its related social restriction measure (national lockdown) and vaccination campaign on emergency department (ED) accesses for epileptic seizures. METHODS: Retrospective observational analysis conducted on a consecutive cohort of patients who sought medical care at the ED of the General Hospital of Merano, Italy, from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021. We investigated the monthly ED attendances for epileptic seizures between the periods before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the national lockdown (March 2020) using an interrupted time-series analysis with data standardized for 1000 accesses/month. As a further temporal cutoff, we used the start of the national vaccination campaign. RESULTS: Between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2021, a total of 415,005 ED attendances were recorded; 1,254 (0.3 %) were due to epileptic seizures. No significant difference was found in the rate of standardized ED accesses for epileptic seizures in March 2020 (time point of interest) to the pre-pandemic trend (0.33/1000; 95 %CI: -1.05 to 1.71; p = 0.637). Similarly, there was no difference between the pre- and post-pandemic trends (-0.02/1000; 95 %CI: -0.11 to 0.06; p = 0.600). When adopting January 2021 as time point of interest, we found no difference to the pre-vaccination trend (0.83/1000; 95 %CI: -0.48 to 2.15), and no difference in the pre- and post-vaccination trends (-0.12/1000; 95 %CI: -0.27 to 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic and its related social restrictions (lockdown), as well as the COVID-19 national vaccination campaign, had little impact on ED accesses for epileptic seizures.

Human intelligence versus Chat-GPT: who performs better in correctly classifying patients in triage?

INTRODUCTION: Chat-GPT is rapidly emerging as a promising and potentially revolutionary tool in medicine. One of its possible applications is the stratification of patients according to the severity of clinical conditions and prognosis during the triage evaluation in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: Using a randomly selected sample of 30 vignettes recreated from real clinical cases, we compared the concordance in risk stratification of ED patients between healthcare personnel and Chat-GPT. The concordance was assessed with Cohen's kappa, and the performance was evaluated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) curves. Among the outcomes, we considered mortality within 72 h, the need for hospitalization, and the presence of a severe or time-dependent condition. RESULTS: The concordance in triage code assignment between triage nurses and Chat-GPT was 0.278 (unweighted Cohen's kappa; 95% confidence intervals: 0.231-0.388). For all outcomes, the ROC values were higher for the triage nurses. The most relevant difference was found in 72-h mortality, where triage nurses showed an AUROC of 0.910 (0.757-1.000) compared to only 0.669 (0.153-1.000) for Chat-GPT. CONCLUSIONS: The current level of Chat-GPT reliability is insufficient to make it a valid substitute for the expertise of triage nurses in prioritizing ED patients. Further developments are required to enhance the safety and effectiveness of AI for risk stratification of ED patients.

Predictors of success of pharmacological management in patients with chronic lower back pain: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Conservative management is recommended as the first therapeutic step in chronic low back pain (LBP), but there is no available evidence regarding the possible effect of patients' baseline characteristics on the therapeutic outcomes. A systematic review of the literature was performed to investigate this point. METHODS: In February 2024, all the level I studies investigating the role of pharmacological management for chronic LBP were accessed. Data concerning the patient demographic at baseline were collected: number of patients and related mean BMI and age, duration of the symptoms, duration of the follow-up, percentage of females, Numeric Rating Scale (NRS), the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMQ), Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). The outcomes at the last follow-up were evaluated through NRS, RMQ, and ODI. A multiple linear model regression diagnostic through the Pearson Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient (r) was used. RESULTS: Data from 47 articles (9007 patients) were obtained. The analysis yielded the following significant associations: age at baseline and NRS at follow-up (r = - 0.22; P = 0.04), NRS at baseline with NRS (r = 0.26; P = 0.03) and RMQ (r = - 0.58; P = 0.02) at follow-up, RMQ at baseline and the same at follow-up (r = 0.69; P = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Older age, higher BMI, presence of comorbidities, higher ODI and a long history of symptoms or surgical treatments do not reduce the efficacy of pharmacological management of chronic LBP. However, pharmacological therapy is not an effective option for patients with high baseline RMQ. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: I systematic review of RCTs.

The role of lactate-to-albumin ratio to predict 30-day risk of death in patients with sepsis in the emergency department: a decision tree analysis.

BACKGROUND: Accurately estimating the prognosis of septic patients on arrival in the emergency department (ED) is clinically challenging. The lactate-to-albumin ratio (LAR) has recently been proposed to improve the predictive performance of septic patients admitted to the ICU. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to assess whether the LAR could be used as an early prognostic marker of 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis in the ED. METHODS: A prospective observational study was conducted in the ED of the Hospital of Merano. All patients with a diagnosis of sepsis were considered. The LAR was recorded on arrival in the ED. The primary outcome measure was mortality at 30 days. The predictive role of the LAR for mortality was evaluated with the area under the ROC curve, logistic regression adjusted for the Charlson Comorbidity Index value, National Early Warning Score, and Sequential Organ Failure score, and with decision tree analysis. RESULTS: 459 patients were enrolled, of whom 17% (78/459) died at 30 days. The median LAR of the patients who died at 30 days (0.78 [0.45-1.19]) was significantly higher than the median LAR of survivors (0.42 [0.27-0.65]) (p < 0.001). The discriminatory ability of the LAR for death at 30 days was 0.738, higher than that of lactate alone (0.692), and slightly lower than that of albumin alone (0.753). The decision trees confirmed the role of the LAR as an independent risk factor for mortality. CONCLUSION: The LAR can be used as an index to better predict the 30-day risk of death in septic patients.

Is the National Early Warning Score able to identify nursing activity load? A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score scale correlates well with the intensity of the patient's acute condition. It could also correlate with the nursing activity load and prove useful in defining and redistributing nursing resources based on the acuity of patients. AIM: To assess whether patients' National Early Warning Score at hospital admission correlates with objective nursing demands and can be used to optimize the distribution of available care resources. METHODS: This single-center prospective study included patients admitted to the Department of Internal Medicine at the Civil Hospital in Altovicentino (Italy) between September 1 and December 31, 2022. Nursing activities were recorded for the first three days after admission and standardized to the daily mean as performance/5 min/patient/day. Linear regression was used to assess the correlation between nursing demands for different National Early Warning Scores. RESULTS: This study included 333 patients. Their mean National Early Warning Score was 3.9 (standard deviation: 2.9), with 61 % (203/333) in the National Early Warning Score <5 category, 19.5 % (65/333) in the National Early Warning Score 5-6 category, and 19.5 % (65/333) in the National Early Warning Score >6 category. Their average daily care requirements increased from 22 (16-30) activities/5 min/patient/day in the low National Early Warning Score category to 30 (20-39) activities/5 min/patient/day in the intermediate National Early Warning Score category (p < 0.001) and 35 (23-45) activities/5 min/patient/day in the high National Early Warning Score category (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The National Early Warning Score correlates with nursing care activities for patients with an acute condition and can be used to optimize the distribution of available care resources.

Assessing the utility of frailty scores in triage: a comparative study of validated scales.

Currently, there is conflicting evidence regarding the efficacy of frailty scales and their ability to enhance or support triage operations. This study aimed to assess the utility of three common frailty scales (CFS, PRISMA-7, ISAR) and determine their utility in the triage setting. This prospective observational monocentric study was conducted at Merano Hospital's Emergency Department (ED) from June 1st to December 31st, 2023. All patients attending this ED during the 80-day study period were included, and frailty scores were correlated with three outcomes: hospitalization, 30-day mortality, and severity of condition as assessed by ED physicians. Patients were categorized by age, and analyses were performed for the entire study population, patients aged 18-64, and those aged 65 or older. Univariate analysis was followed by multivariable analysis to evaluate whether frailty scores were independently associated with the outcomes. In multivariable analysis, none of the frailty scores were found to be associated with the study outcomes, except for the CFS, which was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality, with an odds ratio of 1.752 (95% CI 1.148-2.674; p = 0.009) in the general population and 1.708 (95% CI 1.044-2.793; p = 0.033) in the population aged ≥ 65. Presently, available frailty scores do not appear to be useful in the triage context. Future research should consider developing new systems for accurate frailty assessment to support risk prediction in the triage assessment.

Enhancing triage accuracy: The influence of nursing education on risk prediction.

AIM: This study aimed to compare the performance in risk prediction of various outcomes between specially trained triage nurses and the Manchester Triage System (MTS). DESIGN: Prospective observational study. METHODS: The study was conducted from June 1st to December 31st, 2023, at the Emergency Department of Merano Hospital. Triage nurses underwent continuous training through dedicated courses and daily audits. We compared the risk stratification performed by expert nurses with that of MTS on various outcomes such as mortality, hospitalisation, and urgency defined by the physicians. Comparisons were made using the Areas Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The agreement in code classification between the MTS and the expert nurse was very low. The AUROC curve analysis showed that the expert nurse outperformed the MTS in all outcomes. The triage nurse's experience led to statistically significant better stratification in admission rates, ICU admissions, and all outcomes based on the physician's assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The continuous training of nurses enables them to achieve better risk prediction compared to standardized triage systems like MTS, emphasizing the utility and necessity of implementing continuous training pathways for these highly specialised personnel.

Assessing triage efficiency in Italy: a comparative study using simulated cases among nurses.

BACKGROUND: Emergency Departments (EDs) across Italy use different triage systems, which vary from region to region. This study aimed to assess whether nurses working in different EDs assign triage codes in a similar and standardized manner. METHODS: A multicenter observational simulation study involved the EDs of Bolzano Hospital, Merano Hospital, Pisa University Hospital, and Rovereto Hospital. All participating nurses were given 30 simulated clinical cases (vignettes) and asked to assign triage codes according to the triage systems used in their EDs. Subsequently, we assessed inter-rater agreement and evaluated if code assignment had different performance among hospitals in relation to different clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Eighty-seven nurses participated in this study. There was marked variation in assigned triage codes both across hospitals and among individual operators. The kappa values for inter-rater agreement were 0.632 for Bolzano Hospital, 0.589 for Merano Hospital, 0.464 for Pisa University Hospital, and 0.574 for Rovereto Hospital. Sensitivity and specificity levels varied considerably for the same outcomes when comparing different hospitals. CONCLUSION: There is a high degree of subjectivity in triage code assignment by ED nurses. In the interest of equitable care for patients, this variability within the same country is hardly acceptable.

Stem cell collection and hematological recovery in the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi (FIL) MCL0208 clinical trial.

In the frontline high-dose phase 3 FIL-MCL0208 trial (NCT02354313), 8% of enrolled mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) patients could not be randomised to receive lenalidomide (LEN) maintenance vs observation after autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) due to inadequate hematological recovery and 52% of those who started LEN, needed a dose reduction due to toxicity. We therefore focused on the role played by CD34 + hematopoietic stem cells (PBSC) harvesting and reinfusion on toxicity and outcome. Overall, 90% (n = 245) of enrolled patients who underwent the first leukapheresis collected ≥ 4 × 106 PBSC/kg, 2.6% (n = 7) mobilized < 4 × 106 PBSC/kg and 7.7% (n = 21) failed the collection. Similar results were obtained for the planned second leukapheresis, with only one patient failing both attempts. Median count of reinfused PBSC was 5 × 106/kg and median time to recovery from neutropenia G4 was 10 days from ASCT. No impact of mobilizing subtype or number of reinfused PBSC on hematological recovery and LEN dose reduction was noted. At a median follow-up of 75 months from ASCT, PFS and OS of transplanted patients were 50% and 73%, respectively. A long lasting G4 neutropenia after ASCT (> 10 days) was associated with a worse outcome, both in terms of PFS and OS. In conclusion, although the harvesting procedures proved feasible for younger MCL patients, long-lasting cytopenia following ASCT remains a significant issue: this can hinder the administration of effective maintenance therapies, potentially increasing the relapse rate and negatively affecting survival outcomes.

The Clinical Utility of Albumin with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) in Improving 30-Day Mortality Prediction in Patients with Infection in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is currently the primary prognostic tool used in patients with infections to predict sepsis and mortality, although its predictive role remains debated. Serum albumin values have been recently found to correlate with the severity of sepsis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the clinical usefulness of albumin dosage on SOFA score prediction in infected patients. METHODS: This prospective single-centre observational study was performed in 2021. We used the net reclassification improvement (NRI) technique to evaluate the additional prognostic value of serum albumin used together with the SOFA score in infected patients. The discriminatory abilities of the SOFA score alone, of albumin levels alone, and of the albumin levels together with (but not incorporated into) the SOFA score was evaluated by comparing the area under the curve of the corresponding receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: We included 949 patients with an infectious status; 8.9% (84/949) died within 30 days of ED admission. The AUROC for the SOFA score was 0.802 (95% CI: 0.756-0.849) and the albumin level was 0.813 (95% CI: 0.775-0.852). The NRI found that serum albumin improved SOFA score predictions of 30-day mortality by 24.3% (p < 0.001), yielding an AUROC of 0.881 (95% CI: 0.848-0.912; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Using serum albumin values together with the SOFA score can improve prognostic prediction in patients with infections evaluated in the ED.