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1.
Oecologia ; 196(1): 223-234, 2021 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33934223

RESUMO

Apex predators can shape communities via cascading top-down effects, but the degree to which such effects depend on predator life history traits is largely unknown. Within carnivore guilds, complex hierarchies of dominance facilitate coexistence, whereby subordinate species avoid dominant counterparts by partitioning space, time, or both. We investigated whether a major life history trait (hibernation) in an apex carnivore (black bears Ursus americanus) mediated its top-down effects on the spatio-temporal dynamics of three sympatric mesocarnivore species (coyotes Canis latrans, bobcats Lynx rufus, and gray foxes Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across a 15,000 km2 landscape in the western USA. We compared top-down, bottom-up, and environmental effects on these mesocarnivores using an integrated modeling approach. Black bears exerted top-down effects that varied as a function of hibernation and were stronger than bottom-up or environmental impacts. High black bear activity in summer and fall appeared to buffer the most subordinate mesocarnivore (gray foxes) from competition with dominant mesocarnivores (coyotes and bobcats), which were in turn released by black bear hibernation in winter and early spring. The mesocarnivore responses occurred in space (i.e., altered occupancy and site visitation intensity) rather than time (i.e., diel activity patterns unaffected). These results suggest that the spatio-temporal dynamics of mesocarnivores in this system were principally shaped by a spatial predator cascade of interference competition mediated by black bear hibernation. Thus, certain life history traits of apex predators might facilitate coexistence among competing species over broad time scales, with complex implications for lower trophic levels.


Assuntos
Carnívoros , Lynx , Ursidae , Animais , Clima , Raposas
2.
Ecol Modell ; 4172020 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32189826

RESUMO

Epidemiological surveillance for important wildlife diseases often relies on samples obtained from hunter-harvested animals. A problem, however, is that although convenient and cost-effective, hunter-harvest samples are not representative of the population due to heterogeneities in disease distribution and biased sampling. We developed an agent-based modeling framework that i) simulates a deer population in a user-generated landscape, and ii) uses a snapshot of the in silico deer population to simulate disease prevalence and distribution, harvest effort and sampling as per user-specified parameters. This framework can incorporate real-world heterogeneities in disease distribution, hunter harvest and harvest-based sampling, and therefore can be useful in informing wildlife disease surveillance strategies, specifically to determine population-specific sample sizes necessary for prompt detection of disease. Application of this framework is illustrated using the example of chronic wasting disease (CWD) surveillance in Missouri's white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. We show how confidence in detecting CWD is grossly overestimated under the unrealistic, but standard, assumptions that sampling effort and disease are randomly and independently distributed. We then provide adjusted sample size recommendations based on more realistic assumptions. Wildlife agencies can use these open-access models to design their CWD surveillance. Furthermore, these models can be readily adapted to other regions and other wildlife disease systems.

3.
Ecol Appl ; 29(8): e01993, 2019 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31400176

RESUMO

Modern forest management seeks to balance multiple social, economic, and ecological goals. Different management approaches create different types of disturbances in a forest ecosystem and thus also differ in their impacts on plants, animals, and insects. Understanding these impacts is important for conservation of forest ecosystem function, but challenging due to the large spatial and temporal scale over which management occurs. Most past research has focused on relatively small areas, short time scales, and/or a small number of species. To address this, we examined the effects of two common silvicultural systems (even and uneven aged) on abundance and richness of three vertebrate taxa (birds, small mammals, and herpetofauna) over a two-decade period in a temperate hardwood forest in Missouri, USA. The two systems removed a similar amount of biomass overall, but differed in the intensity, number, and configuration of harvests applied. We found that vertebrate population responses varied by taxa, occurred at multiple spatial scales, and were concentrated in the period following the first harvest entry. Birds generally had the largest changes in relative abundance, both positive and negative, following management. Small mammals and reptiles had smaller, but generally positive, responses; amphibians were mixed. Bird species tended to respond in the same way to both silvicultural systems, while small mammals and herpetofauna did not respond consistently. Thus, for birds, the total amount of harvest disturbance across the landscape drives population responses, while for others the size and configuration of individual harvests is likely more important. Synthesizing results across the vertebrate community at large spatial and temporal scales allows managers to better understand trade-offs when making decisions that will affect wildlife in contrasting ways.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Animais , Biodiversidade , Aves , Florestas , Missouri
4.
J Anim Ecol ; 86(4): 749-765, 2017 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28390066

RESUMO

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses. Addressing the pressing questions in risk effects research, including how, to what extent and on what scale they occur, requires leveraging the advantages of the many methods available to characterize risk while minimizing the confusion caused by variability in their application.


Assuntos
Modelos Teóricos , Comportamento Predatório , Risco , Animais , Carnívoros , Ecossistema , Medo , Ruminantes
5.
Ecology ; 97(1): 48-53, 2016 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27008774

RESUMO

Occupancy models are popular for estimating the probability a site is occupied by a species of interest when detection is imperfect. Occupancy models have been extended to account for interacting species and spatial dependence but cannot presently allow both factors to act simultaneously. We propose a two-species occupancy model that accommodates both interspecific and spatial dependence. We use a point-referenced multivariate hierarchical spatial model to account for both spatial and interspecific dependence. We model spatial random effects with predictive process models and use probit regression to improve efficiency of posterior sampling. We model occupancy probabilities of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and coyote (Canis latrans) with camera trap data collected from six mid-Atlantic states in the eastern United States. We fit four models comprising a fully factorial combination of spatial and interspecific dependence to two-thirds of camera trapping sites and validated models with the remaining data. Red fox and coyotes each exhibited spatial dependence at distances > 0.8 and 0.4 km, respectively, and exhibited geographic variation in interspecific dependence. Consequently, predictions from the model assuming simultaneous spatial and interspecific dependence best matched test data observations. This application highlights the utility of simultaneously accounting for spatial and interspecific dependence.


Assuntos
Distribuição Animal/fisiologia , Coiotes/fisiologia , Raposas/fisiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Modelos Estatísticos , Especificidade da Espécie
6.
Mov Ecol ; 12(1): 33, 2024 Apr 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38671527

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Prey are more vulnerable during migration due to decreased familiarity with their surroundings and spatially concentrated movements. Predators may respond to increased prey vulnerability by shifting their ranges to match prey. Moose (Alces alces) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are primary gray wolf (Canis lupus) prey and important subsistence species for Indigenous communities. We hypothesized wolves would increase use of ungulate migration corridors during migrations and predicted wolf distributions would overlap primary available prey. METHODS: We examined seasonal gray wolf, moose, and white-tailed deer movements on and near the Grand Portage Indian Reservation, Minnesota, USA. We analyzed GPS collar data during 2012-2021 using Brownian bridge movement models (BBMM) in Migration Mapper and mechanistic range shift analysis (MRSA) to estimate individual- and population-level occurrence distributions and determine the status and timing of range shifts. We estimated proportional overlap of wolf distributions with moose and deer distributions and tested for differences among seasons, prey populations, and wolf sex and pack affiliations. RESULTS: We identified a single migration corridor through which white-tailed deer synchronously departed in April and returned in October-November. Gray wolf distributions overlapped the deer migration corridor similarly year-round, but wolves altered within-range distributions seasonally corresponding to prey distributions. Seasonal wolf distributions had the greatest overlap with deer during fall migration (10 October-28 November) and greatest overlap with moose during summer (3 May-9 October). CONCLUSIONS: Gray wolves did not increase their use of the white-tailed deer migration corridor but altered distributions within their territories in response to seasonal prey distributions. Greater overlap of wolves and white-tailed deer in fall may be due to greater predation success facilitated by asynchronous deer migration movements. Greater summer overlap between wolves and moose may be linked to moose calf vulnerability, American beaver (Castor canadensis) co-occurrence, and reduced deer abundance associated with migration. Our results suggest increases in predation pressure on deer in fall and moose in summer, which can inform Indigenous conservation efforts. We observed seasonal plasticity of wolf distributions suggestive of prey switching; that wolves did not exhibit migratory coupling was likely due to spatial constraints resulting from territoriality.

7.
J Anim Ecol ; 82(6): 1165-73, 2013 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23701233

RESUMO

1. A common sampling design in resource selection studies involves measuring resource attributes at sample units used by an animal and at sample units considered available for use. Few models can estimate the absolute probability of using a sample unit from such data, but such approaches are generally preferred over statistical methods that estimate a relative probability of use. 2. The case-control model that allows for contaminated controls, proposed by Lancaster & Imbens (1996) and Lele (2009), can estimate the absolute probability of using a sample unit from use-availability data. However, numerous misconceptions have likely prevented the widespread application of this model to resource selection studies. We address common misconceptions regarding the case-control model with contaminated controls and demonstrate its ability to estimate the absolute probability of use, prevalence and parameters associated with categorical covariates from use-availability data. 3. We fit the case-control model with contaminated controls to simulated data with varying prevalence (defined as the average probability of use across all sample units) and sample sizes (n1 = 500 used and na = 500 available samples; n1 = 1000 used and na = 1000 available samples). We then applied this model to estimate the probability Ozark hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis bishopi) would use a location within a stream as a function of covariates. 4. The case-control model with contaminated controls provided unbiased estimates of all parameters at N = 2000 sample size simulation scenarios, particularly at low prevalence. However, this model produced increasingly variable maximum likelihood estimates of parameters as prevalence increased, particularly at N = 1000 sample size scenarios. We thus recommend at least 500-1000 used samples when fitting the case-control model with contaminated controls to use-availability data. Our application to hellbender data revealed selection for locations with coarse substrate that are close to potential sources of cover. 5. This study unites a disparate literature, addresses and clarifies many commonly held misconceptions and demonstrates that the case-control model with contaminated controls is a viable alternative for estimating the absolute probability of use from use-availability data.


Assuntos
Ecologia/métodos , Ecossistema , Modelos Biológicos , Animais , Funções Verossimilhança , Probabilidade , Tamanho da Amostra , Urodelos/fisiologia
8.
Gen Comp Endocrinol ; 194: 64-70, 2013 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24036404

RESUMO

Population cycles have long interested biologists. The ruffed grouse, Bonasa umbellus, is one such species whose populations cycle over most of their range. Thus, much effort has been expended to understand the mechanisms that might control cycles in this and other species. Corticosterone metabolites are widely used in studies of animals to measure physiological stress. We evaluated corticosterone metabolites in feces of territorial male grouse as a potential tool to study mechanisms governing grouse cycles. However, like most studies of corticosterone in wild animals, we did not know the identity of all individuals for which we had fecal samples. This presented an analytical problem that resulted in either pseudoreplication or confounding. Therefore, we derived an analytical approach that accommodated for uncertainty in individual identification. Because we had relatively low success capturing birds, we estimated turnover probabilities of birds on territorial display sites based on capture histories of a limited number of birds we captured. Hence, we developed a study design and modeling approach to quantify variation in corticosterone levels among individuals and through time that would be applicable to any field study of corticosterone in wild animals. Specifically, we wanted a sampling design and model that was flexible enough to partition variation among individuals, spatial units, and years, while incorporating environmental covariates that would represent potential mechanisms. We conducted our study during the decline phase of the grouse cycle and found high variation among corticosterone samples (11.33-443.92 ng/g [x=113.99 ng/g, SD=69.08, median=99.03 ng/g]). However, there were relatively small differences in corticosterone levels among years, but levels declined throughout each breeding season, which was opposite our predictions for stress hormones correlating with a declining population. We partitioned the residual variation into site, bird, and repetition (i.e., multiple samples collected from the same bird on the same day). After accounting for years and three general periods within breeding seasons, 42% of the residual variation among observations was attributable to differences among individual birds. Thus, we attribute little influence of site on stress level of birds in our study, but disentangling individual from site effects is difficult because site and bird are confounded. Our model structures provided analytical approaches for studying species having different ecologies. Our approach also demonstrates that even incomplete information on individual identity of birds within samples is useful for analyzing these types of data.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Aves/metabolismo , Aves/fisiologia , Corticosterona/metabolismo , Fezes/química , Animais , Ecologia
9.
Ecol Evol ; 13(11): e10658, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37915808

RESUMO

Investigating spatial patterns of animal occupancy and reproduction in peripheral populations can provide insight into factors that form species range boundaries. Following historical extirpation, American black bears (Ursus americanus) recolonized the western Great Basin in Nevada from the Sierra Nevada during the late 1900s. This range expansion, however, has not continued further into the Great Basin despite the presence of additional habitat. We aimed to quantify whether reduced reproduction toward the range edge contributes to this range boundary. We analyzed black bear detections from 100 camera traps deployed across black bear distribution in western Nevada using a multistate occupancy model that quantified the probability of occupancy and reproduction (i.e., female bears with cubs occupancy) in relation to changes in habitat type and habitat amount toward the range boundary. We detected a strong effect of habitat amount and habitat type on the probability of black bear occupancy and reproduction. At similar levels of landscape-scale habitat amount (e.g., 50%), estimated probability of occupancy for adult bears in piñon-juniper woodlands near the range boundary was 0.39, compared to ~1.0 in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest (i.e., core habitat). Furthermore, estimated probability of cub occupancy, conditional on adult bear occupancy, in landscapes with 50% habitat was 0.32 in Great Basin piñon-juniper woodlands, compared to 0.92 in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest. Black bear range in the western Great Basin conforms to the center-periphery hypothesis, with piñon-juniper woodland at the range edge supporting ecologically marginal habitat for the species compared to habitat in the Sierra Nevada. Further geographic expansion of black bears in the Great Basin may be limited by lower occupancy of reproducing females in piñon-juniper woodland. Center-periphery range dynamics may be common in large carnivore species, as their dispersal ability allows them to colonize low-quality habitat near range edges.

10.
Oncol Nurs Forum ; 49(4): 307-314, 2022 06 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35788735

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To determine the relative predictive validity of personality and spirituality for mental health and salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) in breast cancer (BC) survivors. SAMPLE & SETTING: 23 BC survivors participated in a single-group, cross-sectional study. METHODS & VARIABLES: Predictor variables included personality and spiritual variables. Outcome variables included subjective physical and mental health outcomes and sAA, a neuroimmune biomarker. RESULTS: Hierarchical regressions indicated that (a) conscientiousness and forgiveness independently predict 38% and 11% of variance in mental health scores, respectively; and (b) conscientiousness and forgiveness independently predict 15% and 24% of the variance in sAA, respectively. Consistent with psychoneuroimmunology theory, personality and spiritual variables independently influence subjective mental health and neuroimmune activity in BC survivors. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING: Nurses should be aware of BC survivors' personality characteristics and spiritual dispositions so that distinct interventions can be offered to promote mental health and reduce stress-related neuroimmune inflammation.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Sobreviventes de Câncer , alfa-Amilases Salivares , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos Transversais , Saúde Mental , Personalidade , Espiritualidade , Sobreviventes
11.
Conserv Physiol ; 10(1): coac009, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35492406

RESUMO

Conservation translocations-the intentional movement of animals to restore populations-have increased over the past 30 years to halt and reverse species declines and losses. However, there are many challenges translocated animals face that should be considered for restoration programs to be successful. Understanding how long it takes for translocated animals to acclimate to these challenges and their new landscape is a critical component of post-release population management. Physiological measures such as hormone responses are increasingly used to assess animal responses and acclimation to disturbances including translocation. We determined the physiological acclimation period of elk (Cervus canadensis) translocated to the Missouri Ozarks, USA, as part of a restoration effort. From 2011 to 2013, we translocated 108 GPS-radio-collared elk from Kentucky, USA, to Missouri, USA, and collected faecal samples for glucocorticoid metabolite extraction to use as an indicator of physiological acclimation. We modelled the response of population-wide faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (fGCMs) across the initial 9 years of the restoration in response to days following release and additional site-specific covariates. Presence of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) hunts and monthly precipitation levels were positively and negatively associated with fGCM levels, respectively. Concurrent with influences from site-specific conditions on the release landscape, fGCM levels declined following release. We identified a breakpoint in fGCM decline at ~42 days following translocation releases suggesting elk acclimated physiologically relatively quickly compared to other species. The fast physiological acclimation by Missouri elk suggests effective use of temporary post-release management efforts. Determining how quickly animals acclimate following translocations allows researchers to tailor post-release management plans to each species' needs, thus maximizing the success of future translocation efforts while minimizing costs.

12.
Dis Aquat Organ ; 96(1): 1-7, 2011 Aug 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21991660

RESUMO

The pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was recently detected in Missouri hellbender Cryptobranchus alleganiensis populations that have declined precipitously for unclear reasons. The objective of this study was to determine whether Bd occurred historically in Missouri hellbender populations or is a relatively novel occurrence. Epidermal tissue was removed from 216 archived hellbenders collected from 7 Missouri streams between 1896 and 1994. Histological techniques and an immunoperoxidase stain were used to confirm historic occurrence of Bd infection in hellbenders from the North Fork of the White (1969, 1973, 1975), Meramec (1975, 1986), Big Piney (1986), and Current rivers (1988). Bd was not detected in hellbenders from the Niangua, Gasconade or Eleven Point rivers. The study detected no evidence for endemism of Bd in Missouri hellbender populations prior to 1969, despite the fact that nearly one third of the hellbenders sampled were collected earlier. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that Bd is a non-endemic pathogen in North America that was introduced in the second half of the twentieth century.


Assuntos
Quitridiomicetos/isolamento & purificação , Micoses/veterinária , Urodelos , Animais , Missouri/epidemiologia , Micoses/epidemiologia , Rios , Pele/microbiologia , Fatores de Tempo
13.
Ecol Evol ; 11(9): 3685-3695, 2021 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33976768

RESUMO

Despite the key roles that dispersal plays in individual animal fitness and meta-population gene flow, it remains one of the least understood behaviors in many species. In large mammalian herbivores, dispersals might span long distances and thereby influence landscape-level ecological processes, such as infectious disease spread. Here, we describe and analyze an exceptional long-distance dispersal by an adult white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the central United States. We also conducted a literature survey to compare the dispersal to previous studies. This dispersal was remarkable for its length, duration, and the life history stage of the dispersing individual. Dispersal is typical of juvenile deer seeking to establish postnatal home ranges, but this dispersal was undertaken by an adult male (age = 3.5). This individual dispersed ~300 km over a 22-day period by moving, on average, 13.6 km/day and achieving a straight-line distance of ~215 km, which was ~174 km longer than any other distance recorded for an adult male deer in our literature survey. During the dispersal, which occurred during the hunting season, the individual crossed a major river seven times, an interstate highway, a railroad, and eight state highways. Movements during the dispersal were faster (mean = 568.1 m/h) and more directional than those during stationary home range periods before and after the dispersal (mean = 56.9 m/h). Likewise, movements during the dispersal were faster (mean = 847.8 m/h) and more directional at night than during the day (mean = 166.4 m/h), when the individual frequently sheltered in forest cover. This natural history event highlights the unpredictable nature of dispersal and has important implications for landscape-level processes such as chronic wasting disease transmission in cervids. More broadly, our study underscores how integrating natural history observations with modern technology holds promise for understanding potentially high impact but rarely recorded ecological events.

14.
Environ Manage ; 46(5): 725-37, 2010 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20872141

RESUMO

In recent years, elk have begun recolonizing areas east of the Rocky Mountains that are largely agro-forested ecosystems composed of privately owned land where management of elk is an increasing concern due to crop and forage depredation and interspecific disease transmission. We used a Geographic Information System, elk use locations (n = 5013), random locations (n = 25,065), discrete-choice models, and information-theoretic methods to test hypotheses about elk resource selection in an agro-forested landscape located in the Pine Ridge region of northwestern Nebraska, USA. Our objectives were to determine landscape characteristics selected by female elk and identify publicly owned land within the Pine Ridge for potential redistribution of elk. We found distance to edge of cover influenced selection of resources by female elk most and that in areas with light hunting pressure, such as ours, this selection was not driven by an avoidance of roads. Female elk selected resources positioned near ponderosa pine cover types during all seasons, exhibited a slight avoidance of roads during spring and fall, selected areas with increased slope during winter and spring, and selected north- and east-facing aspects over flat areas and areas with south-facing slopes during winter months. We used our models to identified a potential elk redistribution area that had a higher proportion of landcover with characteristics selected by elk in our study area than the current herd areas and more landcover that was publicly owned. With appropriate management plans, we believe elk within the Potential Elk Redistribution Area would predominantly occupy publicly owned land, which would help minimize crop and forage damage on privately owned lands.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Cervos , Ecossistema , Árvores , Animais , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Feminino , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Nebraska , Dinâmica Populacional , Estações do Ano
15.
Front Vet Sci ; 7: 608235, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33585599

RESUMO

Continuing geographic spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) poses a serious threat to the sustainable future of cervids and hunting in North America. Moreover, CWD has been detected in captive cervids in South Korea and, in recent years, in free-ranging reindeer in Europe (Norway). Management of this disease is limited by logistical, financial, and sociopolitical considerations, and current strategies primarily focus on reducing host densities through hunter harvest and targeted culling. The success of such strategies in mitigating the spread and prevalence of CWD only upon detection is questionable. Here, we propose a proactive approach that emphasizes pre-emptive management through purposeful integration of virtual experiments (simulating alternate interventions as model scenarios) with the aim of evaluating their effectiveness. Here, we have used a published agent-based model that links white-tailed deer demography and behavior with CWD transmission dynamics to first derive a CWD outbreak trajectory and then use the trajectory to highlight issues associated with different phases of the CWD outbreak (pre-establishment/transition/endemic). Specifically, we highlight the practical constraints on surveillance in the pre-establishment phase and recommend that agencies use a realistic detection threshold for their CWD surveillance programs. We further demonstrate that many disease introductions are "dead ends" not leading to a full epidemic due to high stochasticity and harvesting in the pre-establishment phase of CWD. Model evaluated pre-emptive (pre-detection) harvest strategies could increase the resilience of the deer population to CWD spread and establishment. We conclude it is important to adaptively position CWD management ahead of, rather than behind, the CWD front.

16.
Biometrics ; 65(4): 1052-62, 2009 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19302407

RESUMO

Recent studies have shown that grassland birds are declining more rapidly than any other group of terrestrial birds. Current methods of estimating avian age-specific nest survival rates require knowing the ages of nests, assuming homogeneous nests in terms of nest survival rates, or treating the hazard function as a piecewise step function. In this article, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with nest-specific covariates to estimate age-specific daily survival probabilities without the above requirements. The model provides a smooth estimate of the nest survival curve and identifies the factors that are related to the nest survival. The model can handle irregular visiting schedules and it has the least restrictive assumptions compared to existing methods. Without assuming proportional hazards, we use a multinomial semiparametric logit model to specify a direct relation between age-specific nest failure probability and nest-specific covariates. An intrinsic autoregressive prior is employed for the nest age effect. This nonparametric prior provides a more flexible alternative to the parametric assumptions. The Bayesian computation is efficient because the full conditional posterior distributions either have closed forms or are log concave. We use the method to analyze a Missouri dickcissel dataset and find that (1) nest survival is not homogeneous during the nesting period, and it reaches its lowest at the transition from incubation to nestling; and (2) nest survival is related to grass cover and vegetation height in the study area.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Biometria/métodos , Aves , Modelos Estatísticos , Fatores Etários , Animais , Feminino , Masculino , Dinâmica Populacional , Estatísticas não Paramétricas , Análise de Sobrevida
17.
PeerJ ; 7: e7185, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31293830

RESUMO

Percent of body fat and physiological stress are important correlates to wildlife demographics. We studied winter percent of body fat and physiological stress levels for a declining elk (Cervus canadensis nelsoni) population in South Dakota, 2011-2013. We obtained percent of winter body fat, pregnancy status, lactation status, and physiological stress data from 58 adult females (2+ years old). We compared physiological stress level data from 2011 with data collected from this same herd when elk densities were much higher (1995-1997). Our objectives were to determine percent of body fat during winter, examine if winter body fat was correlated with pregnancy and lactation status, and quantify and compare physiological stress hormone values from elk in the mid-1990s. Probability of being pregnant increased with higher winter nutritional condition, or percent of body fat; whereas females with a higher probability of previously lactating were lower in winter body fat. Mean fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) levels in 2011 (mean = 47.78 ng/g, SE = 2.37) were higher during summer compared to data collected in 1995-1997 (mean = 34.21 ng/g, SE = 3.71); however, mean FGM levels during winter did not differ between the two time periods. Although summer levels of FGM have significantly increased since the mid-1990s, we caution against any interpretation of increased FGM levels on elk fitness, as it may not infer biological significance. Mean winter percent of body fat of elk was lower when compared to other populations in the west but this difference does not appear to be limiting vital rates and population growth for this elk herd. We recommend future research focus on summer/autumn data collection to provide a more comprehensive understanding of percent of body fat for elk in our region.

18.
J Wildl Dis ; 44(4): 1041-4, 2008 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18957665

RESUMO

The endoparasite community of the eastern spotted skunk (Spilogale putorius) is poorly known. We surveyed parasites found in the feces of 29 eastern spotted skunks captured between March 2005 and January 2007 from a population in west-central Arkansas as part of a broader study of the ecology of the species. We identified 13 species (nine nematodes, four protozoa) from 82 fecal samples. Mean (+/-SD) number of species per individual skunk was 4.1+/-2.1, although this is likely an underestimate because some individuals were sampled more intensively than others. Most of the identified parasite species were also found in other skunk species or in other small carnivore species.


Assuntos
Eucariotos/isolamento & purificação , Fezes/parasitologia , Mephitidae/parasitologia , Nematoides/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Nematoides/veterinária , Infecções Protozoárias em Animais/epidemiologia , Animais , Arkansas/epidemiologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/parasitologia , Reservatórios de Doenças/veterinária , Eucariotos/classificação , Feminino , Masculino , Nematoides/classificação , Infecções por Nematoides/epidemiologia
19.
Conserv Physiol ; 6(1): coy054, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30279991

RESUMO

Rapid climate and human land-use change may limit the ability of long-distance migratory herbivores to optimally track or 'surf' high-quality forage during spring green-up. Understanding how anthropogenic and environmental stressors influence migratory movements is of critical importance because of their potential to cause a mismatch between the timing of animal movements and the emergence of high-quality forage. We measured stress hormones (fecal glucocorticoid metabolites; FGMs) to test hypotheses about the effects of high-quality forage tracking, human land-use and use of stopover sites on the physiological state of individuals along a migratory route. We collected and analysed FGM concentrations from 399 mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) samples obtained along a 241-km migratory route in western Wyoming, USA, during spring 2015 and 2016. In support of a fitness benefit hypothesis, individuals occupying areas closer to peak forage quality had decreased FGM levels. Specifically, for every 10-day interval closer to peak forage quality, we observed a 7% decrease in FGMs. Additionally, we observed support for both an additive anthropogenic stress hypothesis and a hypothesis that stopovers act as physiological refugia, wherein individuals sampled far from stopover sites exhibited 341% higher FGM levels if in areas of low landscape integrity compared to areas of high landscape integrity. Overall, our findings indicate that the physiological state of mule deer during migration is influenced by both anthropogenic disturbances and their ability to track high-quality forage. The availability of stopovers, however, modulates physiological responses to those stressors. Thus, our results support a recent call for the prioritization of stopover locations and connectivity between those locations in conservation planning for migratory large herbivores.

20.
Ecol Evol ; 8(22): 10893-10901, 2018 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30519415

RESUMO

Examining the ways in which animals use habitat and select resources to satisfy their life history requirements has important implications for ecology, evolution, and conservation. The advent of radio-tracking in the mid-20th century greatly expanded the scope of animal-habitat modeling. Thereafter, it became common practice to aggregate telemetry data collected on a number of tagged individuals and fit one model describing resource selection at the population level. This convention, however, runs the risk of masking important individuality in the nature of associations between animals and their environment. Here, we investigated the importance of individual variation in animal-habitat relationships via the study of a highly gregarious species. We modeled elk (Cervus elaphus) location data, collected from Global Positioning System (GPS) collars, using Bayesian discrete choice resource selection function (RSF) models. Using a high-performance computing cluster, we batch-processed these models at the level of each individual elk (n = 88) and evaluated the output with respect to: (a) the composition of parameters in the most supported models, (b) the estimates of the parameters featured in the global models, and (c) spatial maps of the predicted relative probabilities of use. We detected considerable individual variation across all three metrics. For instance, the most supported models varied with respect to parameter composition with a range of seven to 17 and an average of 14.4 parameters per individual elk. The estimates of the parameters featured in the global models also varied greatly across individual elk with little conformity detected across age or sex classes. Finally, spatial mapping illustrated stark differences in the predicted relative probabilities of use across individual elk. Our analysis identifies that animal-habitat relationships, even among the most gregarious of species, can be highly variable. We discuss the implications of our results for ecology and present some guiding principles for the development of RSF models at the individual-animal level.

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