United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention support for influenza surveillance, 2013-2021.

Objective: To assess the stability of improvements in global respiratory virus surveillance in countries supported by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after reductions in CDC funding and with the stress of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: We assessed whether national influenza surveillance systems of CDC-funded countries: (i) continued to analyse as many specimens between 2013 and 2021; (ii) participated in activities of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System; (iii) tested enough specimens to detect rare events or signals of unusual activity; and (iv) demonstrated stability before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used CDC budget records and data from the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System. Findings: While CDC reduced per-country influenza funding by about 75% over 10 years, the number of specimens tested annually remained stable (mean 2261). Reporting varied substantially by country and transmission zone. Countries funded by CDC accounted for 71% (range 61-75%) of specimens included in WHO consultations on the composition of influenza virus vaccines. In 2019, only eight of the 17 transmission zones sent enough specimens to WHO collaborating centres before the vaccine composition meeting to reliably identify antigenic variants. Conclusion: Great progress has been made in the global understanding of influenza trends and seasonality. To optimize surveillance to identify atypical influenza viruses, and to integrate molecular testing, sequencing and reporting of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 into existing systems, funding must continue to support these efforts.

A ten-year China-US laboratory collaboration: improving response to influenza threats in China and the world, 2004-2014.

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) underscored the importance of influenza detection and response in China. From 2004, the Chinese National Influenza Center (CNIC) and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USCDC) initiated Cooperative Agreements to build capacity in influenza surveillance in China.From 2004 to 2014, CNIC and USCDC collaborated on the following activities: 1) developing human technical expertise in virology and epidemiology in China; 2) developing a comprehensive influenza surveillance system by enhancing influenza-like illness (ILI) reporting and virological characterization; 3) strengthening analysis, utilization and dissemination of surveillance data; and 4) improving early response to influenza viruses with pandemic potential.Since 2004, CNIC expanded its national influenza surveillance and response system which, as of 2014, included 408 laboratories and 554 sentinel hospitals. With support from USCDC, more than 2500 public health staff from China received virology and epidemiology training, enabling > 98% network laboratories to establish virus isolation and/or nucleic acid detection techniques. CNIC established viral drug resistance surveillance and platforms for gene sequencing, reverse genetics, serologic detection, and vaccine strains development. CNIC also built a bioinformatics platform to strengthen data analysis and utilization, publishing weekly on-line influenza surveillance reports in English and Chinese. The surveillance system collects 200,000-400,000 specimens and tests more than 20,000 influenza viruses annually, which provides valuable information for World Health Organization (WHO) influenza vaccine strain recommendations. In 2010, CNIC became the sixth WHO Collaborating Centre for Influenza. CNIC has strengthened virus and data sharing, and has provided training and reagents for other countries to improve global capacity for influenza control and prevention.The collaboration's successes were built upon shared mission and values, emphasis on long-term capacity development and sustainability, and leadership commitment.

Can mentorship improve laboratory quality? A case study from influenza diagnostic laboratories in Southeast Europe.

BACKGROUND: Strengthening the quality of laboratory diagnostics is a key part of building global health capacity. In 2015, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Southeast European Center for Surveillance and Control of Infectious Diseases (SECID), WHO European Regional Office (WHO EURO) and American Public Health Laboratories (APHL) collaborated to address laboratory quality training needs in Southeast Europe. Together, they developed a quality assurance (QA) mentorship program for six national laboratories (Laboratories A-E) in five countries utilizing APHL international consultants. The primary goal of the mentorship program was to help laboratories become recognized by WHO as National Influenza Centers (NICs). The program aimed to do this by strengthening influenza laboratory capacity by implementing quality management systems (QMS) action steps. After 1 year, we evaluated participants' progress by the proportion of QMS action steps they had successfully implemented, as well as the value of mentorship as perceived by laboratory mentees, mentors, and primary program stakeholders from SECID and WHO EURO. METHODS: To understand perceived value we used the qualitative method of semi-structured interviews, applying grounded theory to the thematic analysis. RESULTS: Mentees showed clear progress, having completed 32 to 68% [median: 62%] of planned QMS action steps in their laboratories. In regards to the perceived value of the program, we found strong evidence that laboratory mentorship enhances laboratory quality improvement by promoting accountability to QMS implementation, raising awareness of the importance of QMS, and fostering collaborative problem solving. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, we found that significant accomplishments can be achieved when QA programs provide dedicated technical mentorship for QMS implementation. Since the start of the mentoring, Laboratory "B" has achieved NIC recognition by WHO, while two other labs made substantial progress and are scheduled for recognition in 2018. In the future, we recommend that mentorship is more inclusive of laboratory directors, and that programs evaluate the amount of staff time needed for mentorship activities, including lab-based assessments and mentoring.

Measuring influenza laboratory capacity: use of a tool to measure improvements.

BACKGROUND: To collect information, identify training needs, and assist with influenza capacity building voluntary laboratory capacity assessments were conducted using a standardized tool in CDC cooperative agreement countries. To understand the usefulness of comparing results from repeat assessments and to determine if targeted training supported improvements, this paper details comparison of assessment results of conducting 17 repeat laboratory assessments between 2009 and 2013. METHODS: Laboratory assessments were conducted by SMEs in 17 laboratories (16 countries). We reviewed the quantitative assessment results of the laboratories that conducted both an initial and follow up assessment between 2009 to 2013 using repeated measures of Anova, (Mixed procedure of SAS (9.3)). Additionally, we compared the overall summary scores and the assessor recommendations from the two assessments. RESULTS: We were able to document a statistically significant improvement between the first and second assessments both on an aggregate as well as individual indicator score. Within the international capacity tool three of the eight categories recorded statistically significant improvement (equipment, management, and QA/QC), while the other tool categories (molecular, NIC, specimen, safety and virology) showed improvement in scores although not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We found that using a standardized tool and quantitative framework is useful for documenting capacity and performance improvement in identified areas over time. The use of the tool and standard reports with assessor recommendations assisted laboratories with establishing, maintaining, and improving influenza laboratory practices. On-going assessments and the consistent application of the analytic framework over time will continue to aid in building a measurement knowledge base for laboratory capacity.

Epidemiology of influenza in West Africa after the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, 2010-2012.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decade, capacity for influenza surveillance and research in West Africa has strengthened. Data from these surveillance systems showed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulated in West Africa later than in other regions of the continent. METHODS: We contacted 11 West African countries to collect information about their influenza surveillance systems (number of sites, type of surveillance, sampling strategy, populations sampled, case definitions used, number of specimens collected and number of specimens positive for influenza viruses) for the time period January 2010 through December 2012. RESULTS: Of the 11 countries contacted, 8 responded: Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo. Countries used standard World Health Organization (WHO) case definitions for influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) or slight variations thereof. There were 70 surveillance sites: 26 SARI and 44 ILI. Seven countries conducted SARI surveillance and collected 3114 specimens of which 209 (7%) were positive for influenza viruses. Among influenza-positive SARI patients, 132 (63%) were influenza A [68 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 64 influenza A(H3N2)] and 77 (37%) were influenza B. All eight countries conducted ILI surveillance and collected 20,375 specimens, of which 2278 (11%) were positive for influenza viruses. Among influenza-positive ILI patients, 1431 (63%) were influenza A [820 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 611 influenza A(H3N2)] and 847 (37%) were influenza B. A majority of SARI and ILI case-patients who tested positive for influenza (72% SARI and 59% ILI) were children aged 0-4 years, as were a majority of those enrolled in surveillance. The seasonality of influenza and the predominant influenza type or subtype varied by country and year. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 continued to circulate in West Africa along with influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B during 2010-2012. Although ILI surveillance systems produced a robust number of samples during the study period, more could be done to strengthen surveillance among hospitalized SARI case-patients. Surveillance systems captured young children but lacked data on adults and the elderly. More data on risk groups for severe influenza in West Africa are needed to help shape influenza prevention and clinical management policies and guidelines.

The Effect of Influenza Vaccination on Birth Outcomes in a Cohort of Pregnant Women in Lao PDR, 2014-2015.

BACKGROUND: Some studies suggest that maternal influenza vaccination can improve birth outcomes. However, there are limited data from tropical settings, particularly Southeast Asia. We conducted an observational study in Laos to assess the effect of influenza vaccination in pregnant women on birth outcomes. METHODS: We consented and enrolled a cohort of pregnant woman who delivered babies at 3 hospitals during April 2014-February 2015. We collected demographic and clinical information on mother and child. Influenza vaccination status was ascertained by vaccine card. Primary outcomes were the proportion of live births born small for gestational age (SGA) or preterm and mean birth weight. Multivariate models controlled for differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated women and influenza virus circulation. RESULTS: We enrolled 5103 women (2172 [43%] were vaccinated). Among the 4854 who had a live birth, vaccinated women were statistically significantly less likely than unvaccinated women to have an infant born preterm during the period of high influenza virus circulation (risk ratio [RR] = 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI], .45-.70), and the effect remained after adjusting for covariates (adjusted RR, 0.69; 95% CI, .55-.87). There was no effect of vaccine on mean birth weight. Vaccinated mothers had a statistically significant elevated risk of having an infant born SGA (adjusted RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.11­1.41). CONCLUSIONS: In this observational study, we found indirect evidence of influenza vaccine safety during pregnancy, and women who received vaccine had a reduced risk of delivering a preterm infant during times of high influenza virus circulation. Vaccination may prevent 1 in 5 preterm births that occur during periods of high influenza circulation.

Improved Global Capacity for Influenza Surveillance.

During 2004-2009, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with 39 national governments to strengthen global influenza surveillance. Using World Health Organization data and program evaluation indicators collected by CDC in 2013, we retrospectively evaluated progress made 4-9 years after the start of influenza surveillance capacity strengthening in the countries. Our results showed substantial increases in laboratory and sentinel surveillance capacities, which are essential for knowing which influenza strains circulate globally, detecting emergence of novel influenza, identifying viruses for vaccine selection, and determining the epidemiology of respiratory illness. Twenty-eight of 35 countries responding to a 2013 questionnaire indicated that they have leveraged routine influenza surveillance platforms to detect other pathogens. This additional surveillance illustrates increased health-system strengthening. Furthermore, 34 countries reported an increased ability to use data in decision making; data-driven decisions are critical for improving local prevention and control of influenza around the world.

A retrospective review of birth outcomes at the Mother and Child Health Hospital in Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2004-2013.

BACKGROUND: The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is a lower-middle income country making steady progress improving maternal and child health outcomes. We sought to ascertain if there have been improvements in three specific birth outcomes (low birth weight, preterm birth and small for gestational age) over the last decade. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed birth records between 2004 and 2013 at the Mother and Child Health (MCH) hospital in Vientiane. We defined preterm birth as gestation <37 weeks and low birth weight as <2,500 g. We calculated small for gestational age (SGA). We describe birth outcomes over time and compare proportions using Chi square. RESULTS: Between 2004 and 2013, the annual average number of newborns delivered each year was 4,322 and the frequency of low birth weight ranged from 9.5 to 12%, preterm births from 6.3 to 10%, and infants born SGA from 25 to 35%. There were no improvements in these frequencies over time. Women <18 years at delivery had a statistically significantly higher frequency of babies born with a low birth weight (15.3 vs. 10.8%, p < 0.02) or preterm (16.4 vs. 7.8%, p < 0.01) than those aged >18. There was no difference in the frequency of babies born SGA by age (26.8% in women <18 years vs. 29.7% in women >18 years, p = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: At the largest maternal and child hospital in Lao PDR, we found a high frequency of poor birth outcomes with no improvements over the last decade.

Determination of Predominance of Influenza Virus Strains in the Americas.

During 2001-2014, predominant influenza A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) strains in South America predominated in all or most subsequent influenza seasons in Central and North America. Predominant A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) strains in North America predominated in most subsequent seasons in Central and South America. Sharing data between these subregions may improve influenza season preparedness.

Capacity building in national influenza laboratories--use of laboratory assessments to drive progress.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory testing is a fundamental component of influenza surveillance for detecting novel strains with pandemic potential and informing biannual vaccine strain selection. The United States (U.S.) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), under the auspices of its WHO Collaborating Center for Influenza, is one of the major public health agencies which provides support globally to build national capacity for influenza surveillance. Our main objective was to determine if laboratory assessments supported capacity building efforts for improved global influenza surveillance. METHODS: In 2010, 35 national influenza laboratories were assessed in 34 countries, using a standardized tool. Post-assessment, each laboratory received a report with a list of recommendations for improvement. Uptake of recommendations were reviewed 3.2 mean years after the initial assessments and categorized as complete, in-progress, no action or no update. This was a retrospective study; follow-up took place through routine project management rather than at a set time-point post-assessment. WHO data on National Influenza Centre (NIC) designation, External Quality Assessment Project (EQAP) participation and FluNet reporting was used to measure laboratory capacity longitudinally and independently of the assessments. All data was further stratified by World Bank country income category. RESULTS: At follow-up, 81% of 614 recommendations were either complete (350) or in-progress (145) for 32 laboratories (91% response rate). The number of countries reporting to FluNet and the number of specimens they reported annually increased between 2005, when they were first funded by CDC, and 2010, the assessment year (p < 0.01). Improvements were also seen in EQAP participation and NIC designation over time and more so for low and lower-middle income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Assessments using a standardized tool have been beneficial to improving laboratory-based influenza surveillance. Specific recommendations helped countries identify and prioritize areas for improvement. Data from assessments helped CDC focus its technical assistance by country and region. Low and lower-middle income countries made greater improvements in their laboratories compared with upper-middle income countries. Future research could include an analysis of annual funding and technical assistance by country. Our approach serves as an example for capacity building for other diseases.

Influenza seasonality and vaccination timing in tropical and subtropical areas of southern and south-eastern Asia.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize influenza seasonality and identify the best time of the year for vaccination against influenza in tropical and subtropical countries of southern and south-eastern Asia that lie north of the equator. METHODS: Weekly influenza surveillance data for 2006 to 2011 were obtained from Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Weekly rates of influenza activity were based on the percentage of all nasopharyngeal samples collected during the year that tested positive for influenza virus or viral nucleic acid on any given week. Monthly positivity rates were then calculated to define annual peaks of influenza activity in each country and across countries. FINDINGS: Influenza activity peaked between June/July and October in seven countries, three of which showed a second peak in December to February. Countries closer to the equator had year-round circulation without discrete peaks. Viral types and subtypes varied from year to year but not across countries in a given year. The cumulative proportion of specimens that tested positive from June to November was > 60% in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Thus, these tropical and subtropical countries exhibited earlier influenza activity peaks than temperate climate countries north of the equator. CONCLUSION: Most southern and south-eastern Asian countries lying north of the equator should consider vaccinating against influenza from April to June; countries near the equator without a distinct peak in influenza activity can base vaccination timing on local factors.

Improvements in pandemic preparedness in 8 Central American countries, 2008-2012.

BACKGROUND: In view of ongoing pandemic threats such as the recent human cases of novel avian influenza A(H7N9) in China, it is important that all countries continue their preparedness efforts. Since 2006, Central American countries have received donor funding and technical assistance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to build and improve their capacity for influenza surveillance and pandemic preparedness. Our objective was to measure changes in pandemic preparedness in this region, and explore factors associated with these changes, using evaluations conducted between 2008 and 2012. METHODS: Eight Central American countries scored their pandemic preparedness across 12 capabilities in 2008, 2010 and 2012, using a standardized tool developed by CDC. Scores were calculated by country and capability and compared between evaluation years using the Student's t-test and Wilcoxon Rank Sum test, respectively. Virological data reported to WHO were used to assess changes in testing capacity between evaluation years. Linear regression was used to examine associations between scores, donor funding, technical assistance and WHO reporting. RESULTS: All countries improved their pandemic preparedness between 2008 and 2012 and seven made statistically significant gains (p < 0.05). Increases in median scores were observed for all 12 capabilities over the same period and were statistically significant for eight of these (p < 0.05): country planning, communications, routine influenza surveillance, national respiratory disease surveillance, outbreak response, resources for containment, community interventions and health sector response. We found a positive association between preparedness scores and cumulative funding between 2006 and 2011 (R2 = 0.5, p < 0.01). The number of specimens reported to WHO from participating countries increased significantly from 5,551 (2008) to 18,172 (2012) (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Central America has made significant improvements in influenza pandemic preparedness between 2008 and 2012. U.S. donor funding and technical assistance provided to the region is likely to have contributed to the improvements we observed, although information on other sources of funding and support was unavailable to study. Gains are also likely the result of countries' response to the 2009 influenza pandemic. Further research is required to determine the degree to which pandemic improvements are sustainable.

The 2020 immunization programme landscape: Piloting an assessment metric to evaluate the maturity of national immunization programmes across the life course.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) encourages countries to provide appropriate vaccinations for children, adolescents, and relevant adult populations. Childhood programme have been the focus of global investments, but recent pandemics have increasingly demonstrated the value of life course vaccination. Our objective is to compare national life course immunization programmatic maturity prior to mass COVID-19 vaccine introduction, the largest adult vaccination programme, globally. As coverage estimates (typically used to assess childhood programmes) are not available for adult vaccinations, this analysis pilots a standardized quantitative metric of programmatic maturity. METHODS: Through consultation with vaccination experts, we developed a standardized approach to assess national immunization programme maturity across the life course. In accordance with expert input, five vaccines were selected to represent delivery across the life course: diphtheria tetanus toxoid and pertussis (DTP); measles (MCV) second dose; human papillomavirus (HPV) final dose; pneumococcal conjugate (PCV) final dose; and seasonal influenza annual dose. Experts recommended inclusion of the following indicators for each vaccine: a legal mandate (national policy), experience delivering the vaccine (programme duration), and vaccine use (uptake for relevant populations). We developed a metric accordingly that provides up to 5 points per vaccine ("vaccine specific maturity score") which when summed forms the "life course maturity score", with a maximum score of 25. We analysed the prevalence of national policies, experience, and use by region and World Bank income group. RESULTS: More than 55% of the 194 WHO Member States had childhood vaccine policies for all three of the vaccines considered (DTP, MCV, and PCV) compared to 60% for HPV (proxy for adolescent vaccination programme) and 52% for seasonal influenza (proxy for adult vaccination programme). Childhood vaccination programmes (e.g., MCV and DTP) had the highest vaccine specific maturity scores, while seasonal influenza and HPV vaccination programmes had much lower scores. The national life course maturity scores ranged from 1 to 23, with a global median of 12 (IQR: 8; 16). DISCUSSION: The piloted metric provides an overview of the maturity of life course immunization programmes. The metric is structured to be a flexible, rapid resource that can be used to assess other combinations of vaccines across the life course. The findings from this paper provide a baseline of immunization programme maturity for childhood, adolescent, and adult vaccination programmes immediately prior to the COVID-19 vaccine introduction. This maturity score, or adaptations of this approach, could be used to monitor the trajectory of national immunization programme maturity across the life course in the years ahead.

Assessing the relationship between existing childhood, adolescent and adult immunization programmes and national COVID-19 vaccination capacities in 2021.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly all countries introduced COVID-19 vaccination programmes. Yet, countries had a wide range of programmatic experiences. This analysis aims to identify national characteristics associated with COVID-19 vaccination programmatic success. METHODS: We used the following outcome measures: the presence of national COVID-19 vaccination capacities and COVID-19 coverage as of December 2021, June 2022, and December 2022. We developed a standardized metric for assessing national COVID-19 vaccination capacities as a proxy for speed of introduction. We developed this metric through adaptation of the WHO Guide for Conducting an Expanded Programme on Immunization Review and consultations with technical experts specializing in vaccine introduction and emergency deployment; monitoring and data; childhood, adolescent and adult programmes; and COVID-19 vaccination roll-out. Through multivariable linear regressions, we evaluated whether having a mature immunization programme for children, adolescents and adults; recent use of emergency vaccination; World Bank income classification; past early adoption of new vaccines; density of the health workforce; and/or trust in science and government were associated with higher COVID-19 vaccination capacities and coverage. RESULTS: The COVID-19 vaccination capacities scores ranged from 0 to 5 points with a global median score of 2 and an interquartile range of 1;4. After adjusting for World Bank income classifications, the presence of a mature influenza vaccination programme was independently correlated with statistically significant higher scores of national COVID-19 vaccination capacities and higher COVID-19 vaccination coverage in December 2021, June 2022, and December 2022. Trust in government was also associated with higher coverage for all three time stamps. CONCLUSIONS: As countries consider how to prepare for and respond to future pandemics, having an adult seasonal influenza vaccination programme, building trust in government, and ensuring equitable access to vaccines supply emerged as key aspects that can benefit from additional national and global focus.

Use of Sentinel Surveillance Platforms for Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 Activity: Evidence From Analysis of Kenya Influenza Sentinel Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the cocirculation of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic and the use of respiratory disease sentinel surveillance platforms for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 activity in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to describe influenza and SARS-CoV-2 cocirculation in Kenya and how the SARS-CoV-2 data from influenza sentinel surveillance correlated with that of universal national surveillance. METHODS: From April 2020 to March 2022, we enrolled 7349 patients with severe acute respiratory illness or influenza-like illness at 8 sentinel influenza surveillance sites in Kenya and collected demographic, clinical, underlying medical condition, vaccination, and exposure information, as well as respiratory specimens, from them. Respiratory specimens were tested for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. The universal national-level SARS-CoV-2 data were also obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health. The universal national-level SARS-CoV-2 data were collected from all health facilities nationally, border entry points, and contact tracing in Kenya. Epidemic curves and Pearson r were used to describe the correlation between SARS-CoV-2 positivity in data from the 8 influenza sentinel sites in Kenya and that of the universal national SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. A logistic regression model was used to assess the association between influenza and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection with severe clinical illness. We defined severe clinical illness as any of oxygen saturation <90%, in-hospital death, admission to intensive care unit or high dependence unit, mechanical ventilation, or a report of any danger sign (ie, inability to drink or eat, severe vomiting, grunting, stridor, or unconsciousness in children younger than 5 years) among patients with severe acute respiratory illness. RESULTS: Of the 7349 patients from the influenza sentinel surveillance sites, 76.3% (n=5606) were younger than 5 years. We detected any influenza (A or B) in 8.7% (629/7224), SARS-CoV-2 in 10.7% (768/7199), and coinfection in 0.9% (63/7165) of samples tested. Although the number of samples tested for SARS-CoV-2 from the sentinel surveillance was only 0.2% (60 per week vs 36,000 per week) of the number tested in the universal national surveillance, SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the sentinel surveillance data significantly correlated with that of the universal national surveillance (Pearson r=0.58; P<.001). The adjusted odds ratios (aOR) of clinical severe illness among participants with coinfection were similar to those of patients with influenza only (aOR 0.91, 95% CI 0.47-1.79) and SARS-CoV-2 only (aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.47-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza substantially cocirculated with SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya. We found a significant correlation of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the data from 8 influenza sentinel surveillance sites with that of the universal national SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data. Our findings indicate that the influenza sentinel surveillance system can be used as a sustainable platform for monitoring respiratory pathogens of pandemic potential or public health importance.

Patient-Specific Measurable Residual Disease Markers Predict Outcome in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Related Diseases After Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation.

PURPOSE: Clinical relapse is the major threat for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) undergoing hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT). Early detection of measurable residual disease (MRD) would enable preemptive treatment and potentially reduced relapse risk. METHODS: Patients with MDS planned for HSCT were enrolled in a prospective, observational study evaluating the association between MRD and clinical outcome. We collected bone marrow (BM) and peripheral blood samples until relapse, death, or end of study 24 months after HSCT. Patient-specific mutations were identified with targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel and traced using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR). RESULTS: Of 266 included patients, estimated relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates 3 years after HSCT were 59% and 64%, respectively. MRD results were available for 221 patients. Relapse was preceded by positive BM MRD in 42/44 relapses with complete MRD data, by a median of 71 (23-283) days. Of 137 patients in continuous complete remission, 93 were consistently MRD-negative, 39 reverted from MRD+ to MRD-, and five were MRD+ at last sampling. Estimated 1 year-RFS after first positive MRD was 49%, 39%, and 30%, using cutoff levels of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.5%, respectively. In a multivariate Cox model, MRD (hazard ratio [HR], 7.99), WHO subgroup AML (HR, 4.87), TP53 multi-hit (HR, 2.38), NRAS (HR, 3.55), and acute GVHD grade III-IV (HR, 4.13) were associated with shorter RFS. MRD+ was also independently associated with shorter OS (HR, 2.65). In a subgroup analysis of 100 MRD+ patients, presence of chronic GVHD was associated with longer RFS (HR, 0.32). CONCLUSION: Assessment of individualized MRD using NGS + ddPCR is feasible and can be used for early detection of relapse. Positive MRD is associated with shorter RFS and OS (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02872662).

Delayed 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 circulation in West Africa, May 2009-April 2010.

To understand 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) circulation in West Africa, we collected influenza surveillance data from ministries of health and influenza laboratories in 10 countries, including Cameroon, from 4 May 2009 through 3 April 2010. A total of 10,203 respiratory specimens were tested, of which 25% were positive for influenza virus. Until the end of December 2009, only 14% of all detected strains were A(H1N1)pdm09, but the frequency increased to 89% from January through 3 April 2010. Five West African countries did not report their first A(H1N1)pdm09 case until 6 months after the emergence of the pandemic in North America, in April 2009. The time from first detection of A(H1N1)pdm09 in a country to the time of A(H1N1)pdm09 predominance varied from 0 to 37 weeks. Seven countries did not report A(H1N1)pdm09 predominance until 2010. Introduction and transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 were delayed in this region.

Influenza surveillance in 15 countries in Africa, 2006-2010.

BACKGROUND: In response to the potential threat of an influenza pandemic, several international institutions and governments, in partnership with African countries, invested in the development of epidemiologic and laboratory influenza surveillance capacity in Africa and the African Network of Influenza Surveillance and Epidemiology (ANISE) was formed. METHODS: We used a standardized form to collect information on influenza surveillance system characteristics, the number and percent of influenza-positive patients with influenza-like illness (ILI), or severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and virologic data from countries participating in ANISE. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2010, the number of ILI and SARI sites in 15 African countries increased from 21 to 127 and from 2 to 98, respectively. Children 0-4 years accounted for 48% of all ILI and SARI cases of which 22% and 10%, respectively, were positive for influenza. Influenza peaks were generally discernible in North and South Africa. Substantial cocirculation of influenza A and B occurred most years. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza is a major cause of respiratory illness in Africa, especially in children. Further strengthening influenza surveillance, along with conducting special studies on influenza burden, cost of illness, and role of other respiratory pathogens will help detect novel influenza viruses and inform and develop targeted influenza prevention policy decisions in the region.

Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010-19: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using country-specific surveillance data to describe influenza epidemic activity could inform decisions on the timing of influenza vaccination. We analysed surveillance data from African countries to characterise the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics to inform national vaccination strategies. METHODS: We used publicly available sentinel data from African countries reporting to the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response FluNet platform that had 3-10 years of data collected during 2010-19. We calculated a 3-week moving proportion of samples positive for influenza virus and assessed epidemic timing using an aggregate average method. The start and end of each epidemic were defined as the first week when the proportion of positive samples exceeded or went below the annual mean, respectively, for at least 3 consecutive weeks. We categorised countries into five epidemic patterns: northern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in October-March; southern hemisphere-dominant, with epidemics occurring in April-September; primarily northern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in southern hemisphere months; primarily southern hemisphere with some epidemic activity in northern hemisphere months; and year-round influenza transmission without a discernible northern hemisphere or southern hemisphere predominance (no clear pattern). FINDINGS: Of the 34 countries reporting data to FluNet, 25 had at least 3 years of data, representing 46% of the countries in Africa and 89% of Africa's population. Study countries reported RT-PCR respiratory virus results for a total of 503 609 specimens (median 12 971 [IQR 9607-20 960] per country-year), of which 74 001 (15%; median 2078 [IQR 1087-3008] per country-year) were positive for influenza viruses. 248 epidemics occurred across 236 country-years of data (median 10 [range 7-10] per country). Six (24%) countries had a northern hemisphere pattern (Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Morocco, Niger, and Tunisia). Eight (32%) had a primarily northern hemisphere pattern with some southern hemisphere epidemics (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Togo). Three (12%) had a primarily southern hemisphere pattern with some northern hemisphere epidemics (Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda). Three (12%) had a southern hemisphere pattern (Central African Republic, South Africa, and Zambia). Five (20%) had no clear pattern (Côte d'Ivoire, DR Congo, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Rwanda). INTERPRETATION: Most countries had identifiable influenza epidemic periods that could be used to inform authorities of non-seasonal and seasonal influenza activity, guide vaccine timing, and promote timely interventions. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATIONS: For the Berber, Luganda, Xhosa, Chewa, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa and Afan Oromo translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.