Development and internal validation of a multifactorial risk prediction model for gallbladder cancer in a high-incidence country.

Since 2006, Chile has been implementing a gallbladder cancer (GBC) prevention program based on prophylactic cholecystectomy for gallstone patients aged 35 to 49 years. The effectiveness of this prevention program has not yet been comprehensively evaluated. We conducted a retrospective study of 473 Chilean GBC patients and 2137 population-based controls to develop and internally validate three GBC risk prediction models. The Baseline Model accounted for gallstones while adjusting for sex and birth year. Enhanced Model I also included the non-genetic risk factors: body mass index, educational level, Mapuche surnames, number of children and family history of GBC. Enhanced Model II further included Mapuche ancestry and the genotype for rs17209837. Multiple Cox regression was applied to assess the predictive performance, quantified by the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PRC) and the number of cholecystectomies needed (NCN) to prevent one case of GBC at age 70 years. The AUC-PRC for the Baseline Model (0.44%, 95%CI 0.42-0.46) increased by 0.22 (95%CI 0.15-0.29) when non-genetic factors were included, and by 0.25 (95%CI 0.20-0.30) when incorporating non-genetic and genetic factors. The overall NCN for Chileans with gallstones (115, 95%CI 104-131) decreased to 92 (95%CI 60-128) for Chileans with a higher risk than the median according to Enhanced Model I, and to 80 (95%CI 59-110) according to Enhanced Model II. In conclusion, age, sex and gallstones are strong risk factors for GBC, but consideration of other non-genetic factors and individual genotype data improves risk prediction and may optimize allocation of financial resources and surgical capacity.

Gallbladder Cancer Risk and Indigenous South American Mapuche Ancestry: Instrumental Variable Analysis Using Ancestry-Informative Markers.

A strong association between the proportion of indigenous South American Mapuche ancestry and the risk of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has been reported in observational studies. Chileans show the highest incidence of GBC worldwide, and the Mapuche are the largest indigenous people in Chile. We set out to assess the confounding-free effect of the individual proportion of Mapuche ancestry on GBC risk and to investigate the mediating effects of gallstone disease and body mass index (BMI) on this association. Genetic markers of Mapuche ancestry were selected based on the informativeness for assignment measure, and then used as instrumental variables in two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses and complementary sensitivity analyses. Results suggested a putatively causal effect of Mapuche ancestry on GBC risk (inverse variance-weighted (IVW) risk increase of 0.8% per 1% increase in Mapuche ancestry proportion, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.2%, p = 6.7 × 10-5) and also on gallstone disease (3.6% IVW risk increase, 95% CI 3.1% to 4.0%), pointing to a mediating effect of gallstones on the association between Mapuche ancestry and GBC. In contrast, the proportion of Mapuche ancestry showed a negative effect on BMI (IVW estimate -0.006 kg/m2, 95% CI -0.009 to -0.003). The results presented here may have significant implications for GBC prevention and are important for future admixture mapping studies. Given that the association between the individual proportion of Mapuche ancestry and GBC risk previously noted in observational studies appears to be free of confounding, primary and secondary prevention strategies that consider genetic ancestry could be particularly efficient.