The dynamics underlying avian extinction trajectories forecast a wave of extinctions.

Population decline is a process, yet estimates of current extinction rates often consider just the final step of that process by counting numbers of species lost in historical times. This neglects the increased extinction risk that affects a large proportion of species, and consequently underestimates the effective extinction rate. Here, we model observed trajectories through IUCN Red List extinction risk categories for all bird species globally over 28 years, and estimate an overall effective extinction rate of 2.17 × 10-4/species/year. This is six times higher than the rate of outright extinction since 1500, as a consequence of the large number of species whose status is deteriorating. We very conservatively estimate that global conservation efforts have reduced the effective extinction rate by 40%, but mostly through preventing critically endangered species from going extinct rather than by preventing species at low risk from moving into higher-risk categories. Our findings suggest that extinction risk in birds is accumulating much more than previously appreciated, but would be even greater without conservation efforts.

Does competition drive character differences between species on a macroevolutionary scale?

Sympatric sister species generally have a degree of phenotypic differentiation that allows them to coexist. It has been well documented that phenotypic similarity results, through resource competition, in one of two major outcomes: local extinction of either competitor or character displacement. Limiting similarity suggests that there is a maximum degree of phenotypic niche overlap with which similar species may coexist. Breaching that maximum would result in exclusion. Character displacement, on the other hand, implies that the species differentiate phenotypically so that resource competition is reduced to the point where coexistence is possible. While it has been suggested that these theories have the potential to accelerate (character displacement) or limit phenotypic evolution (competitive exclusion) on microevolutionary time scales, their effects on macroevolution remain under-studied. If competition accelerates evolution on a macroevolutionary scale, one would expect that phenotypic diversity increases as novel species 'push aside' existing species. On the other hand, one might also expect that phenotypic evolution comes to a halt as novel species are trapped in the (ever decreasing) phenotypic space not yet occupied by existing species, except at the extremes of the phenotypic spectrum. Studying the current geographical ranges of more than 3000 extant species representing 29 mammalian families and their respective body masses, I found little evidence of competition accelerating body size differentiation between species.

Pulse grazing by reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) can increase the phylogenetic diversity of vascular plant communities in the Fennoscandian tundra.

Herbivore grazing is an important determinant of plant community assemblages. Thus, it is essential to understand its impact to direct conservation efforts in regions where herbivores are managed. While the impacts of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) grazing on plant biodiversity and community composition in the Fennoscandian tundra are well studied, the impact of reindeer grazing on phylogenetic community structure is not. We used data from a multiyear quasi-experimental study in northern Fennoscandia to analyze the effect of reindeer grazing on plant community diversity including its phylogenetic structure. Our study design used a permanent fence constructed in the 1960s and temporary fences constructed along the permanent fence to expose plant communities to three different grazing regimes: light (almost never grazed), pulse (grazed every other year), and press (chronic grazing for over 40 years). Similar to previous studies on low productivity ecosystems in this region, the species richness and evenness of plant communities with pulse and press grazing did not differ from communities with light grazing. Also consistent with previous studies in this region, we observed a transition from shrub-dominated communities with light grazing to graminoid-dominated communities with pulse and press grazing. Interestingly, communities with pulse, but not press, grazing were more phylogenetically dispersed than communities with light grazing. If grazing pulses can increase the phylogenetic diversity of plant communities, our result suggests changes in reindeer management allowing for pulses of grazing to increase phylogenetic diversity of plant communities.

Do speciation rates drive rates of body size evolution in mammals?

Recently, it has been shown with large data sets of extinct mammals that large-bodied lineages experienced higher speciation and extinction rates; with extant mammals, it has been shown that body size evolution is accelerated during speciation. Therefore, it is interesting to investigate whether mammalian body size evolution is faster in large-bodied lineages. Phylogenetic analysis assuming size-independent speciation rates suggested that the rate of body size evolution increases with body size, whereas size differences in recent sister species (that are little affected by species turnover) appear to be independent of size. This supports the hypothesis that high rates of species turnover increase the rate at which interspecific differences accumulate in large-bodied clades, whereas rates of evolution in single lineages are approximately size invariant. Similarly, these findings support the notion that mammalian body size evolution is indeed concentrated in speciation events.

Does density-dependent diversification mirror ecological competitive exclusion?

Density-dependence is a term used in ecology to describe processes such as birth and death rates that are regulated by the number of individuals in a population. Evolutionary biologists have borrowed the term to describe decreasing rates of species accumulation, suggesting that speciation and extinction rates depend on the total number of species in a clade. If this analogy with ecological density-dependence holds, diversification of clades is restricted because species compete for limited resources. We hypothesize that such competition should not only affect numbers of species, but also prevent species from being phenotypically similar. Here, we present a method to detect whether competitive interactions between species have ordered phenotypic traits on a phylogeny, assuming that competition prevents related species from having identical trait values. We use the method to analyze clades of birds and mammals, with body size as the phenotypic trait. We find no sign that competition has prevented species from having the same body size. Thus, since body size is a key ecological trait and competition does not seem to be responsible for differences in body size between species, we conclude that the diversification slowdown that is prevalent in these clades is unlikely due to the ecological interference implied by the term density dependence.

Sexual size dimorphism is not associated with the evolution of parental care in frogs.

Sex differences in parental care are thought to arise from differential selection on the sexes. Sexual dimorphism, including sexual size dimorphism (SSD), is often used as a proxy for sexual selection on males. Some studies have found an association between male-biased SSD (i.e., males larger than females) and the loss of paternal care. While the relationship between sexual selection on males and parental care evolution has been studied extensively, the relationship between female-biased SSD (i.e., females larger than males) and the evolution of parental care has received very little attention. Thus, we have little knowledge of whether female-biased SSD coevolves with parental care. In species displaying female-biased SSD, we might expect dimorphism to be associated with the evolution of paternal care or perhaps the loss of maternal care. Here, drawing on data for 99 extant frog species, we use comparative methods to evaluate how parental care and female-biased SSD have evolved over time. Generally, we find no significant correlation between the evolution of parental care and female-biased SSD in frogs. This suggests that differential selection on body size between the sexes is unlikely to have driven the evolution of parental care in these clades and questions whether we should expect sexual dimorphism to exhibit a general relationship with the evolution of sex differences in parental care.

Punctuated equilibrium in a neontological context.

The theory of punctuated equilibrium, which proposes that biological species evolve rapidly when they originate rather than gradually over time, has sparked intense debate between palaeontologists and evolutionary biologists about the mode of character evolution and the importance of natural selection. Difficulty in interpreting the fossil record prevented consensus, and it remains disputed as to what extent gradual change in established species is responsible for phenotypic differences between species. Against the historical background of the concept of evolution concentrated in speciation events, we review attempts to investigate tempo and mode of evolution using present-day species since the introduction of the theory of punctuated equilibrium in 1972. We discuss advantages, disadvantages, and prospects of using neontological data, methodological advances, and the findings of some recent studies.