Co-occurring anthropogenic stressors reduce the timeframe of environmental viability for the world's coral reefs.

Anthropogenic disturbances are posing unprecedented challenges to the persistence of ecosystems worldwide. The speed at which these disturbances reach an ecosystem's tolerance thresholds will determine the time available for adaptation and conservation. Here, we aim to calculate the year after which a given environmental stressor permanently exceeds the bounds of an ecosystem's tolerance. Ecosystem thresholds are here defined as limits in a given stressor beyond which ecosystems have showed considerable changes in community assembly and functioning, becoming remnants of what they once were, but not necessarily leading to species extirpation or extinction. Using the world's coral reefs as a case example, we show that the projected effects of marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, storms, land-based pollution, and local human stressors are being underestimated considerably by looking at disturbances independently. Given the spatial complementarity in which numerous disturbances impact the world's coral reefs, we show that the timelines of environmental suitability are halved when all disturbances are analyzed simultaneously, as opposed to independently. Under business-as-usual scenarios, the median year after which environmental conditions become unsuitable for the world's remaining coral reefs was, at worse, 2050 for any one disturbance alone (28 years left); but when analyzed concurrently, this date was shortened to 2035 (13 years left). When analyzed together, disturbances reduced the date of environmental suitability because areas that may remain suitable under one disturbance could become unsuitable by any of several other variables. The significance of co-occurring disturbances at reducing timeframes of environmental suitability was evident even under optimistic scenarios. The best-case scenario, characterized by strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and optimistic human development, resulted in 41% of global coral reefs with unsuitable conditions by 2100 under any one disturbance independently; yet when analyzed in combination up to 64% of the world's coral reefs could face unsuitable environmental conditions by one disturbance or another. Under the worst-case scenario, nearly all coral reef ecosystems worldwide (approximately 99%) will permanently face unsuitable conditions by 2055 in at least one of the disturbances analyzed. Prior studies have indicated the projected dire effects of climate change on coral reefs by mid-century; by analyzing a multitude of projected disturbances, our study reveals a much more severe prognosis for the world's coral reefs as they have significantly less time to adapt while highlighting the urgent need to tackle available solutions to human disturbances.

A ridge-to-reef ecosystem microbial census reveals environmental reservoirs for animal and plant microbiomes.

Microbes are found in nearly every habitat and organism on the planet, where they are critical to host health, fitness, and metabolism. In most organisms, few microbes are inherited at birth; instead, acquiring microbiomes generally involves complicated interactions between the environment, hosts, and symbionts. Despite the criticality of microbiome acquisition, we know little about where hosts' microbes reside when not in or on hosts of interest. Because microbes span a continuum ranging from generalists associating with multiple hosts and habitats to specialists with narrower host ranges, identifying potential sources of microbial diversity that can contribute to the microbiomes of unrelated hosts is a gap in our understanding of microbiome assembly. Microbial dispersal attenuates with distance, so identifying sources and sinks requires data from microbiomes that are contemporary and near enough for potential microbial transmission. Here, we characterize microbiomes across adjacent terrestrial and aquatic hosts and habitats throughout an entire watershed, showing that the most species-poor microbiomes are partial subsets of the most species-rich and that microbiomes of plants and animals are nested within those of their environments. Furthermore, we show that the host and habitat range of a microbe within a single ecosystem predicts its global distribution, a relationship with implications for global microbial assembly processes. Thus, the tendency for microbes to occupy multiple habitats and unrelated hosts enables persistent microbiomes, even when host populations are disjunct. Our whole-watershed census demonstrates how a nested distribution of microbes, following the trophic hierarchies of hosts, can shape microbial acquisition.

Impact of climate change on atopic dermatitis: A review by the International Eczema Council.

Atopic dermatitis (AD), the most burdensome skin condition worldwide, is influenced by climatic factors and air pollution; however, the impact of increasing climatic hazards on AD remains poorly characterized. Leveraging an existing framework for 10 climatic hazards related to greenhouse gas emissions, we identified 18 studies with evidence for an impact on AD through a systematic search. Most climatic hazards had evidence for aggravation of AD the impact ranged from direct effects like particulate matter-induced AD exacerbations from wildfires to the potential for indirect effects like drought-induced food insecurity and migration. We then created maps comparing the past, present, and future projected burden of climatic hazards to global AD prevalence data. Data are lacking, especially from those regions most likely to experience more climatic hazards. We highlight gaps important for future research: understanding the synergistic impacts of climatic hazards on AD, long-term disease activity, the differential impact on vulnerable populations, and how basic mechanisms explain population-level trends.

Translation and linguistic validation of the Sheffield Profile for Assessment and Referral for Care (SPARC) to Colombian Spanish.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to translate and linguistically and cross-culturally validate Sheffield Profile for Assessment and Referral for Care (SPARC) in Spanish for Colombia (SPARC-Sp). METHODS: The linguistic validation of SPARC followed a standard methodology. We conducted focus groups to assess the comprehensibility and feasibility. The acceptability was assessed using a survey study with potential users. RESULTS: The comprehensibility assessment showed that additional adjustments to those made during the translation-back-translation process were required to apply SPARC-Sp in rural and low-schooled populations. It also identified the need for alternative administration mechanisms for illiterate people. The acceptability survey showed that potential users found SPARC-Sp as not only acceptable but also highly desirable. However, they desired to expand the number of items in all domains. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: Beyond the semantic and conceptual validity attained through the back-translation process, actual cultural validity could be acquired thanks to the comprehensibility tests. Although extending the instrument is something potential users would like to do, it would make it less feasible to utilize the SPARC-Sp in clinical settings. Nonetheless, the instrument might benefit from the inclusion of a domain that evaluates challenges encountered when accessing the health-care system. For communities lacking literacy, alternate administration methods must also be considered.

Mouse intestinal villi as a model system for studies of norovirus infection.

Noroviruses (NoV) are enteric caliciviruses that have been detected in multiple species of mammals, including humans. Establishing an efficient in vitro cell culture system for human norovirus (HuNoV) remains a challenge; however, its replication has been reported in 3D cultured Caco-2 cells and a clone of Caco-2 cells (C2BBe1), human enteroids and human B cells. Isolated mouse intestinal villi, with large diversity of intestinal epithelial cells, are a primary cellular model that has been shown to be permissive for the infection and replication of enteric viruses such as rotaviruses. We hypothesized that they could allow the infection and replication of the human noroviruses. In this report, we indicate that the isolated villi model of the mouse intestine is effective for the infection study and replication of the human noroviruses from faeces and environmental matrices (water, vegetables and air). For successful infection, the virus needs to be activated with trypsin. The virus has an average replicative cycle of 10 h, although viral particles with infectious capacity are found already at 2 hours post infection (2 h.p.i.). The model is efficient in obtaining abundant biological material and is ideal for studying the biological activity of the human noroviruses in the same cell model or for generating antibodies. Keywords: human norovirus; intestinal epithelial cells; intestinal villus isolation; norovirus isolated from water; norovirus isolated from plants; norovirus isolated from air.

Bright spots among the world's coral reefs.

Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world's coral reefs require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them3. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development is to systematically identify and learn from the 'outliers'­places where ecosystems are substantially better ('bright spots') or worse ('dark spots') than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations and use of ecosystem resources is high, potentially providing insights into how communities have successfully confronted strong drivers of change. Conversely, dark spots are not necessarily the sites with the lowest absolute biomass and even include some remote, uninhabited locations often considered near pristine6. We surveyed local experts about social, institutional, and environmental conditions at these sites to reveal that bright spots are characterized by strong sociocultural institutions such as customary taboos and marine tenure, high levels of local engagement in management, high dependence on marine resources, and beneficial environmental conditions such as deep-water refuges. Alternatively, dark spots are characterized by intensive capture and storage technology and a recent history of environmental shocks. Our results suggest that investments in strengthening fisheries governance, particularly aspects such as participation and property rights, could facilitate innovative conservation actions that help communities defy expectations of global reef degradation.

Gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains.

Coral reefs provide ecosystem goods and services for millions of people in the tropics, but reef conditions are declining worldwide. Effective solutions to the crisis facing coral reefs depend in part on understanding the context under which different types of conservation benefits can be maximized. Our global analysis of nearly 1,800 tropical reefs reveals how the intensity of human impacts in the surrounding seascape, measured as a function of human population size and accessibility to reefs ("gravity"), diminishes the effectiveness of marine reserves at sustaining reef fish biomass and the presence of top predators, even where compliance with reserve rules is high. Critically, fish biomass in high-compliance marine reserves located where human impacts were intensive tended to be less than a quarter that of reserves where human impacts were low. Similarly, the probability of encountering top predators on reefs with high human impacts was close to zero, even in high-compliance marine reserves. However, we find that the relative difference between openly fished sites and reserves (what we refer to as conservation gains) are highest for fish biomass (excluding predators) where human impacts are moderate and for top predators where human impacts are low. Our results illustrate critical ecological trade-offs in meeting key conservation objectives: reserves placed where there are moderate-to-high human impacts can provide substantial conservation gains for fish biomass, yet they are unlikely to support key ecosystem functions like higher-order predation, which is more prevalent in reserve locations with low human impacts.

Dredging in the Spratly Islands: Gaining Land but Losing Reefs.

Coral reefs on remote islands and atolls are less exposed to direct human stressors but are becoming increasingly vulnerable because of their development for geopolitical and military purposes. Here we document dredging and filling activities by countries in the South China Sea, where building new islands and channels on atolls is leading to considerable losses of, and perhaps irreversible damages to, unique coral reef ecosystems. Preventing similar damage across other reefs in the region necessitates the urgent development of cooperative management of disputed territories in the South China Sea. We suggest using the Antarctic Treaty as a positive precedent for such international cooperation.

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability.

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

How accessible are coral reefs to people? A global assessment based on travel time.

The depletion of natural resources has become a major issue in many parts of the world, with the most accessible resources being most at risk. In the terrestrial realm, resource depletion has classically been related to accessibility through road networks. In contrast, in the marine realm, the impact on living resources is often framed into the Malthusian theory of human density around ecosystems. Here, we develop a new framework to estimate the accessibility of global coral reefs using potential travel time from the nearest human settlement or market. We show that 58% of coral reefs are located < 30 min from the nearest human settlement. We use a case study from New Caledonia to demonstrate that travel time from the market is a strong predictor of fish biomass on coral reefs. We also highlight a relative deficit of protection on coral reef areas near people, with disproportional protection on reefs far from people. This suggests that conservation efforts are targeting low-conflict reefs or places that may already be receiving de facto protection due to their isolation. Our global assessment of accessibility in the marine realm is a critical step to better understand the interplay between humans and resources.

Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century.

Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa.

Global patterns of species richness and their structuring forces have fascinated biologists since Darwin and provide critical context for contemporary studies in ecology, evolution and conservation. Anthropogenic impacts and the need for systematic conservation planning have further motivated the analysis of diversity patterns and processes at regional to global scales. Whereas land diversity patterns and their predictors are known for numerous taxa, our understanding of global marine diversity has been more limited, with recent findings revealing some striking contrasts to widely held terrestrial paradigms. Here we examine global patterns and predictors of species richness across 13 major species groups ranging from zooplankton to marine mammals. Two major patterns emerged: coastal species showed maximum diversity in the Western Pacific, whereas oceanic groups consistently peaked across broad mid-latitudinal bands in all oceans. Spatial regression analyses revealed sea surface temperature as the only environmental predictor highly related to diversity across all 13 taxa. Habitat availability and historical factors were also important for coastal species, whereas other predictors had less significance. Areas of high species richness were disproportionately concentrated in regions with medium or higher human impacts. Our findings indicate a fundamental role of temperature or kinetic energy in structuring cross-taxon marine biodiversity, and indicate that changes in ocean temperature, in conjunction with other human impacts, may ultimately rearrange the global distribution of life in the ocean.

How many species are there on Earth and in the ocean?

The diversity of life is one of the most striking aspects of our planet; hence knowing how many species inhabit Earth is among the most fundamental questions in science. Yet the answer to this question remains enigmatic, as efforts to sample the world's biodiversity to date have been limited and thus have precluded direct quantification of global species richness, and because indirect estimates rely on assumptions that have proven highly controversial. Here we show that the higher taxonomic classification of species (i.e., the assignment of species to phylum, class, order, family, and genus) follows a consistent and predictable pattern from which the total number of species in a taxonomic group can be estimated. This approach was validated against well-known taxa, and when applied to all domains of life, it predicts ~8.7 million (± 1.3 million SE) eukaryotic species globally, of which ~2.2 million (± 0.18 million SE) are marine. In spite of 250 years of taxonomic classification and over 1.2 million species already catalogued in a central database, our results suggest that some 86% of existing species on Earth and 91% of species in the ocean still await description. Renewed interest in further exploration and taxonomy is required if this significant gap in our knowledge of life on Earth is to be closed.

Global human footprint on the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in reef fishes.

Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass) scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness) in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs). Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future.

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Microbiomes and metabolomes of dominant coral reef primary producers illustrate a potential role for immunolipids in marine symbioses.

The dominant benthic primary producers in coral reef ecosystems are complex holobionts with diverse microbiomes and metabolomes. In this study, we characterize the tissue metabolomes and microbiomes of corals, macroalgae, and crustose coralline algae via an intensive, replicated synoptic survey of a single coral reef system (Waimea Bay, O'ahu, Hawaii) and use these results to define associations between microbial taxa and metabolites specific to different hosts. Our results quantify and constrain the degree of host specificity of tissue metabolomes and microbiomes at both phylum and genus level. Both microbiome and metabolomes were distinct between calcifiers (corals and CCA) and erect macroalgae. Moreover, our multi-omics investigations highlight common lipid-based immune response pathways across host organisms. In addition, we observed strong covariation among several specific microbial taxa and metabolite classes, suggesting new metabolic roles of symbiosis to further explore.

Management effectiveness of the world's marine fisheries.

Ongoing declines in production of the world's fisheries may have serious ecological and socioeconomic consequences. As a result, a number of international efforts have sought to improve management and prevent overexploitation, while helping to maintain biodiversity and a sustainable food supply. Although these initiatives have received broad acceptance, the extent to which corrective measures have been implemented and are effective remains largely unknown. We used a survey approach, validated with empirical data, and enquiries to over 13,000 fisheries experts (of which 1,188 responded) to assess the current effectiveness of fisheries management regimes worldwide; for each of those regimes, we also calculated the probable sustainability of reported catches to determine how management affects fisheries sustainability. Our survey shows that 7% of all coastal states undergo rigorous scientific assessment for the generation of management policies, 1.4% also have a participatory and transparent processes to convert scientific recommendations into policy, and 0.95% also provide for robust mechanisms to ensure the compliance with regulations; none is also free of the effects of excess fishing capacity, subsidies, or access to foreign fishing. A comparison of fisheries management attributes with the sustainability of reported fisheries catches indicated that the conversion of scientific advice into policy, through a participatory and transparent process, is at the core of achieving fisheries sustainability, regardless of other attributes of the fisheries. Our results illustrate the great vulnerability of the world's fisheries and the urgent need to meet well-identified guidelines for sustainable management; they also provide a baseline against which future changes can be quantified.

Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change.

It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.