Can Antarctica's shallow zoobenthos 'bounce back' from iceberg scouring impacts driven by climate change?

All coastal systems experience disturbances and many across the planet are under unprecedented threat from an intensification of a variety of stressors. The West Antarctic Peninsula is a hotspot of physical climate change and has experienced a dramatic loss of sea-ice and glaciers in recent years. Among other things, sea-ice immobilizes icebergs, reducing collisions between icebergs and the seabed, thus decreasing ice-scouring. Ice disturbance drives patchiness in successional stages across seabed assemblages in Antarctica's shallows, making this an ideal system to understand the ecosystem resilience to increasing disturbance with climate change. We monitored a shallow benthic ecosystem before, during and after a 3-year pulse of catastrophic ice-scouring events and show that such systems can return, or bounce back, to previous states within 10 years. Our long-term data series show that recovery can happen more rapidly than expected, when disturbances abate, even in highly sensitive cold, polar environments.

Invasive non-native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region.

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non-native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non-native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non-native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.

Legacy and Emerging Persistent Organic Pollutants in Antarctic Benthic Invertebrates near Rothera Point, Western Antarctic Peninsula.

Pollutant levels in polar regions are gaining progressively more attention from the scientific community. This is especially so for pollutants that persist in the environment and can reach polar latitudes via a wide range of routes, such as some persistent organic pollutants (POPs). In this study, samples of Antarctic marine benthic organisms were analyzed for legacy and emerging POPs (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and organochlorine pesticides) to comprehensively assess their current POP concentrations and infer the potential sources of the pollutants. Specimens of five benthic invertebrate species were collected at two distinct locations near Rothera research station on the Antarctic Peninsula (67°35'8 ̋ S and 68°7'59 ̋ W). Any impact of the nearby Rothera station as a local source of pollution appeared to be negligible. The most abundant chemicals detected were hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and BDE-209. The highest concentrations detected were in limpets and sea urchins, followed by sea stars, ascidians, and sea cucumbers. The relative congener patterns of PCBs and PBDEs were similar in all of the species. Some chemicals (e.g., heptachlor, oxychlordane, and mirex) were detected in the Antarctic invertebrates for the first time. Statistical analyses revealed that the distribution of the POPs was not only driven by the feeding traits of the species but also by the physicochemical properties of the specific compounds.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of Antarctic shallow soft-bottom benthic communities: ecological drivers under climate change.

BACKGROUND: Marine soft sediments are some of the most widespread habitats in the ocean, playing a vital role in global carbon cycling, but are amongst the least studied with regard to species composition and ecosystem functioning. This is particularly true of the Polar Regions, which are currently undergoing rapid climate change, the impacts of which are poorly understood. Compared to other latitudes, Polar sediment habitats also experience additional environmental drivers of strong seasonality and intense disturbance from iceberg scouring, which are major structural forces for hard substratum communities. This study compared sediment assemblages from two coves, near Rothera Point, Antarctic Peninsula, 67°S in order to understand the principal drivers of community structure, for the first time, evaluating composition across all size classes from mega- to micro-fauna. RESULTS: Morpho-taxonomy identified 77 macrofaunal species with densities of 464-16,084 individuals m-2. eDNA metabarcoding of microfauna, in summer only, identified a higher diversity, 189 metazoan amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) using the 18S ribosomal RNA and 249 metazoan ASVs using the mitochondrial COI gene. Both techniques recorded a greater taxonomic diversity in South Cove than Hangar Cove, with differences in communities between the coves, although the main taxonomic drivers varied between techniques. Morphotaxonomy identified the main differences between coves as the mollusc, Altenaeum charcoti, the cnidarian Edwardsia sp. and the polychaetes from the family cirratulidae. Metabarcoding identified greater numbers of species of nematodes, crustaceans and Platyhelminthes in South Cove, but more bivalve species in Hangar Cove. There were no detectable differences in community composition, measured through morphotaxonomy, between seasons, years or due to iceberg disturbance. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that unlike hard substratum communities the diversity of Antarctic soft sediment communities is correlated with the same factors as other latitudes. Diversity was significantly correlated with grain size and organic content, not iceberg scour. The increase in glacial sediment input as glaciers melt, may therefore be more important than increased iceberg disturbance.

Biodiversity in marine invertebrate responses to acute warming revealed by a comparative multi-omics approach.

Understanding species' responses to environmental change underpins our abilities to make predictions on future biodiversity under any range of scenarios. In spite of the huge biodiversity in most ecosystems, a model species approach is often taken in environmental studies. To date, we still do not know how many species we need to study to input into models and inform on ecosystem-level responses to change. In this study, we tested current paradigms on factors setting thermal limits by investigating the acute warming response of six Antarctic marine invertebrates: a crustacean Paraceradocus miersi, a brachiopod Liothyrella uva, two bivalve molluscs, Laternula elliptica, Aequiyoldia eightsii, a gastropod mollusc Marseniopsis mollis and an echinoderm Cucumaria georgiana. Each species was warmed at the rate of 1 °C h-1 and taken to the same physiological end point (just prior to heat coma). Their molecular responses were evaluated using complementary metabolomics and transcriptomics approaches with the aim of discovering the underlying mechanisms of their resilience or sensitivity to warming. The responses were species-specific; only two showed accumulation of anaerobic end products and three exhibited the classical heat shock response with expression of HSP70 transcripts. These diverse cellular measures did not directly correlate with resilience to heat stress and suggested that each species may have a different critical point of failure. Thus, one unifying molecular mechanism underpinning response to warming could not be assigned, and no overarching paradigm was supported. This biodiversity in response makes future ecosystems predictions extremely challenging, as we clearly need to develop a macrophysiology-type approach to cellular evaluations of the environmental stress response, studying a range of well-rationalized members from different community levels and of different phylogenetic origins rather than extrapolating from one or two arbitrary model species.

Variability among individuals is generated at the gene expression level.

Selection acts on individuals, specifically on their differences. To understand adaptation and responses to change therefore requires knowledge of how variation is generated and distributed across traits. Variation occurs on different biological scales, from genetic through physiological to morphological, yet it is unclear which of these carries the most variability. For example, if individual variation is mainly generated by differences in gene expression, variability should decrease progressively from coding genes to morphological traits, whereas if post-translational and epigenetic effects increase variation, the opposite should occur. To test these predictions, we compared levels of variation among individuals in various measures of gene expression, physiology (including activity), and morphology in two abundant and geographically widespread Antarctic molluscs, the clam Laternula elliptica and the limpet Nacella concinna. Direct comparisons among traits as diverse as heat shock protein QPCR assays, whole transcription profiles, respiration rates, burying rate, shell length, and ash-free dry mass were made possible through the novel application of an established metric, the Wentworth Scale. In principle, this approach could be extended to analyses of populations, communities, or even entire ecosystems. We found consistently greater variation in gene expression than morphology, with physiological measures falling in between. This suggests that variability is generated at the gene expression level. These findings have important implications for refining current biological models and predictions of how biodiversity may respond to climate change.

Adult acclimation to combined temperature and pH stressors significantly enhances reproductive outcomes compared to short-term exposures.

This study examined the effects of long-term culture under altered conditions on the Antarctic sea urchin, Sterechinus neumayeri. Sterechinus neumayeri was cultured under the combined environmental stressors of lowered pH (-0.3 and -0.5 pH units) and increased temperature (+2 °C) for 2 years. This time-scale covered two full reproductive cycles in this species and analyses included studies on both adult metabolism and larval development. Adults took at least 6-8 months to acclimate to the altered conditions, but beyond this, there was no detectable effect of temperature or pH. Animals were spawned after 6 and 17 months exposure to altered conditions, with markedly different outcomes. At 6 months, the percentage hatching and larval survival rates were greatest in the animals kept at 0 °C under current pH conditions, whilst those under lowered pH and +2 °C performed significantly less well. After 17 months, performance was not significantly different across treatments, including controls. However, under the altered conditions urchins produced larger eggs compared with control animals. These data show that under long-term culture adult S. neumayeri appear to acclimate their metabolic and reproductive physiology to the combined stressors of altered pH and increased temperature, with relatively little measureable effect. They also emphasize the importance of long-term studies in evaluating effects of altered pH, particularly in slow developing marine species with long gonad maturation times, as the effects of altered conditions cannot be accurately evaluated unless gonads have fully matured under the new conditions.

Acclimation and thermal tolerance in Antarctic marine ectotherms.

Antarctic marine species have evolved in one of the coldest and most temperature-stable marine environments on Earth. They have long been classified as being stenothermal, or having a poor capacity to resist warming. Here we show that their ability to acclimate their physiology to elevated temperatures is poor compared with species from temperate latitudes, and similar to those from the tropics. Those species that have been demonstrated to acclimate take a very long time to do so, with Antarctic fish requiring up to 21-36 days to acclimate, which is 2-4 times as long as temperate species, and invertebrates requiring between 2 and 5 months to complete whole-animal acclimation. Investigations of upper thermal tolerance (CT(max)) in Antarctic marine species have shown that as the rate of warming is reduced in experiments, CT(max) declines markedly, ranging from 8 to 17.5 °C across 13 species at a rate of warming of 1 °C day(-1), and from 1 to 6 °C at a rate of 1 °C month(-1). This effect of the rate of warming on CT(max) also appears to be present at all latitudes. A macrophysiological analysis of long-term CT(max) across latitudes for marine benthic groups showed that both Antarctic and tropical species were less resistant to elevated temperatures in experiments and thus had lower warming allowances (measured as the difference between long-term CT(max) and experienced environmental temperature), or warming resistance, than temperate species. This makes them more at risk from warming than species from intermediate latitudes. This suggests that the variability of environmental temperature may be a major factor in dictating an organism's responses to environmental change.

Low global sensitivity of metabolic rate to temperature in calcified marine invertebrates.

Metabolic rate is a key component of energy budgets that scales with body size and varies with large-scale environmental geographical patterns. Here we conduct an analysis of standard metabolic rates (SMR) of marine ectotherms across a 70° latitudinal gradient in both hemispheres that spanned collection temperatures of 0-30 °C. To account for latitudinal differences in the size and skeletal composition between species, SMR was mass normalized to that of a standard-sized (223 mg) ash-free dry mass individual. SMR was measured for 17 species of calcified invertebrates (bivalves, gastropods, urchins and brachiopods), using a single consistent methodology, including 11 species whose SMR was described for the first time. SMR of 15 out of 17 species had a mass-scaling exponent between 2/3 and 1, with no greater support for a 3/4 rather than a 2/3 scaling exponent. After accounting for taxonomy and variability in parameter estimates among species using variance-weighted linear mixed effects modelling, temperature sensitivity of SMR had an activation energy (Ea) of 0.16 for both Northern and Southern Hemisphere species which was lower than predicted under the metabolic theory of ecology (Ea 0.2-1.2 eV). Northern Hemisphere species, however, had a higher SMR at each habitat temperature, but a lower mass-scaling exponent relative to SMR. Evolutionary trade-offs that may be driving differences in metabolic rate (such as metabolic cold adaptation of Northern Hemisphere species) will have important impacts on species abilities to respond to changing environments.

Trajectory of increased iceberg kill-off in West Antarctica's shallows.

Compared with low latitude coasts, many polar latitudes are still little impacted by intense and direct anthropogenic stressors. Climate forcing is now bringing rapid physical change to nearshore polar realms. In the shallow coastal waters adjacent to the United Kingdom's Rothera Research Station in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), 225 seabed markers at 5-25 m depth have been surveyed and replaced every year from 2002-2023 (75 markers at each of 5, 10 and 25 m). This is one of the longest continuously running marine disturbance experiments in the world, in one of Earth's fastest changing environments. Different categories of sea ice are recorded (including when the sea surface freezes into fast ice) at Rothera since the 1980s, and losses of marine ice in both polar regions are one of the striking responses to a warming planet1. Five to ten years of seabed marker hit rate data (marker broken or moved) showed that reduced sea ice cover is correlated with disturbance and mortality on the seabed2,3.

Testing the Resilience, Physiological Plasticity and Mechanisms Underlying Upper Temperature Limits of Antarctic Marine Ectotherms.

Antarctic marine ectotherms live in the constant cold and are characterised by limited resilience to elevated temperature. Here we tested three of the central paradigms underlying this resilience. Firstly, we assessed the ability of eight species, from seven classes representing a range of functional groups, to survive, for 100 to 303 days, at temperatures 0 to 4 °C above previously calculated long-term temperature limits. Survivors were then tested for acclimation responses to acute warming and acclimatisation, in the field, was tested in the seastar Odontaster validus collected in different years, seasons and locations within Antarctica. Finally, we tested the importance of oxygen limitation in controlling upper thermal limits. We found that four of 11 species studied were able to survive for more than 245 days (245-303 days) at higher than previously recorded temperatures, between 6 and 10 °C. Only survivors of the anemone Urticinopsis antarctica did not acclimate CTmax and there was no evidence of acclimatisation in O. validus. We found species-specific effects of mild hyperoxia (30% oxygen) on survival duration, which was extended (two species), not changed (four species) or reduced (one species), re-enforcing that oxygen limitation is not universal in dictating thermal survival thresholds. Thermal sensitivity is clearly the product of multiple ecological and physiological capacities, and this diversity of response needs further investigation and interpretation to improve our ability to predict future patterns of biodiversity.

Testing the physiological capacity of the mussel Mytilus chilensis to establish into the Southern Ocean.

The Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current create environmental conditions that serve as an efficient barrier to prevent the colonization of non-native species (NNS) in the marine ecosystems of Antarctica. However, warming of the Southern Ocean and the increasing number of transport opportunities are reducing the physiological and physical barriers, increasing the chances of NNS arriving. The aim of this study was to determine the limits of survival of the juvenile mussels, M. chilensis, under current Antarctic conditions and those projected under climate change. These assessments were used to define the mussels potential for establishment in the Antarctic region. Experimental mussels were exposed to four treatments: -1.5 °C (Antarctic winter), 2 °C (Antarctic summer), 4 °C (Antarctic projected) and 8 °C (control) for 80 days and a combination of physiological and transcriptomics approaches were used to investigate mussel response. The molecular responses of mussels were congruent with the physiological results, revealing tolerance to Antarctic winter temperatures. However, a higher number of regulated differentially expressed gene (DEGs) were reported in mussels exposed to Antarctic winter temperatures (-1.5 °C). This tolerance was associated with the activation of the biological processes associated with apoptosis (up regulated) and both cell division and cilium assembly (down regulated). The reduced feeding rate and the negative scope for growth, for a large part of the exposure period at -1.5 °C, suggests that Antarctic winter temperatures represents an environmental barrier to M. chilensis from the Magellanic region settling in the Antarctic. Although M. chilensis are not robust to current Antarctica thermal conditions, future warming scenarios are likely to weaken these physiological barriers. These results strongly suggest that the West Antarctic Peninsula could become part of Mytilus distributional range, especially with dispersal aided by increasing maritime transport activity across the Southern Ocean.

Detection of plastic, cellulosic micro-fragments and microfibers in Laternula elliptica from King George Island (Maritime Antarctica).

It is generally acknowledged that microplastic pollutants are prevalent in ocean waters and sediments across a range of tropical, temperate, subpolar, and polar regions. The waters surrounding King George Island are significantly impacted by human activities, particularly those related to scientific stations, fishing, and tourism. Organisms, such as Laternula elliptica, can be used as environmental monitors due to the likelihood that they will bioaccumulate pollutants. The goal of this study was to quantify and identify plastic and cellulosic micro-fragments and microfibers present in the soft body of clams (n = 21), collected from Fildes Bay near sewage and wastewater discharges. Plastic and cellulose microfragments and microfibers were counted, and their compositions were determined using FT-IR. All 21 individuals sampled contained fragments and fibers, with a total of 900 items detected (42.86 ± 25.36 mean ± SD items per individual), or 1.82 items g.wet mass-1. 58 % of items were cellulose and 22 % plastic. Considering the plastic polymer compositions, 28.57 % were polyethylene terephthalate (PET), 21.43 % acrylic, 14.29 % high-density polyethylene (HDPE), 14.29 % Polypropylene (PP), 7.14 % ultra-high drawn polyethylene filament (UHMWPE), 7.14 % polyester and 7.14 % Polyethylene. The quantities and prevalence of MP in L. elliptica were higher than those found in other Antarctic marine species, and even in bivalves from populated regions of the world. Our work assessed the pollution status of L. elliptica near an effluent of wastewater plants and found that 95 % of individuals displayed MP and 100 % microfibers that could impact their population.

Geographical range, heat tolerance and invasion success in aquatic species.

Species with broader geographical ranges are expected to be ecological generalists, while species with higher heat tolerances may be relatively competitive at more extreme and increasing temperatures. Thus, both traits are expected to relate to increased survival during transport to new regions of the globe, and once there, establishment and spread. Here, we explore these expectations using datasets of latitudinal range breadth and heat tolerance in freshwater and marine invertebrates and fishes. After accounting for the latitude and hemisphere of each species' native range, we find that species introduced to freshwater systems have broader geographical ranges in comparison to native species. Moreover, introduced species are more heat tolerant than related native species collected from the same habitats. We further test for differences in range breadth and heat tolerance in relation to invasion success by comparing species that have established geographically restricted versus extensive introduced distributions. We find that geographical range size is positively related to invasion success in freshwater species only. However, heat tolerance is implicated as a trait correlated to widespread occurrence of introduced populations in both freshwater and marine systems. Our results emphasize the importance of formal risk assessments before moving heat tolerant species to novel locations.

Marine invertebrate skeleton size varies with latitude, temperature and carbonate saturation: implications for global change and ocean acidification.

There is great concern over the future effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms, especially for skeletal calcification, yet little is known of natural variation in skeleton size and composition across the globe, and this is a prerequisite for identifying factors currently controlling skeleton mass and thickness. Here, taxonomically controlled latitudinal variations in shell morphology and composition were investigated in bivalve and gastropod molluscs, brachiopods, and echinoids. Total inorganic content, a proxy for skeletal CaCO3 , decreased with latitude, decreasing seawater temperature, and decreasing seawater carbonate saturation state (for CaCO3 as calcite (Ωcal )) in all taxa. Shell mass decreased with latitude in molluscs and shell inorganic content decreased with latitude in buccinid gastropods. Shell thickness decreased with latitude in buccinid gastropods (excepting the Australian temperate buccinid) and echinoids, but not brachiopods and laternulid clams. In the latter, the polar species had the thickest shell. There was no latitudinal trend in shell thickness within brachiopods. The variation in trends in shell thickness by taxon suggests that in some circumstances ecological factors may override latitudinal trends. Latitudinal gradients may produce effects similar to those of future CO2 -driven ocean acidification on CaCO3 saturation state. Responses to latitudinal trends in temperature and saturation state may therefore be useful in informing predictions of organism responses to ocean acidification over long-term adaptive timescales.

Physiological plasticity, long term resistance or acclimation to temperature, in the Antarctic bivalve, Laternula elliptica.

To further investigate the previously reported limited acclimation capacities of Antarctic marine stenotherms, the Antarctic mud clam, Laternula elliptica (King and Broderip, 1830-1831), was incubated at 3.0°C for 89days. The thermal windows of a suite of biochemical and physiological metrics that characterise tissue aerobic status, were then measured in response to acute temperature elevation (2-2.5°C increase per week). To test if acclimation had occurred at the higher temperature, results were compared with published data, from the preceding year, for L. elliptica which had been incubated at ambient temperature (0.0°C) and then subjected to the same acute temperature treatments. Incubation to 3.0°C led to a temperature induced increase of tissue aerobic status (reduced intracellular cCO(2) with increased O(2) consumption, PLA (phospho-L-arginine) and ATP). At the highest acute temperature (7.5°C) the increase in anaerobic pathways (summed acetate/succinate and propionate) was less after 3.0°C than 0.0°C incubation. No other metric shifted its reaction norm in response to acute temperature elevation and so whole animal acclimation had not occurred, even after 3months at 3.0°C. Combined with the constant mortality throughout the 3.0°C incubation period, these data suggest that the recorded physiological changes were either the early stages of acclimation or, more likely, time limited resistance mechanisms.

Benthic Biodiversity, Carbon Storage and the Potential for Increasing Negative Feedbacks on Climate Change in Shallow Waters of the Antarctic Peninsula.

The importance of cold-water blue carbon as biological carbon pumps that sequester carbon into ocean sediments is now being realised. Most polar blue carbon research to date has focussed on deep water, yet the highest productivity is in the shallows. This study measured the functional biodiversity and carbon standing stock accumulated by shallow-water (<25 m) benthic assemblages on both hard and soft substrata on the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP, 67° S). Soft substrata benthic assemblages (391 ± 499 t C km-2) contained 60% less carbon than hard substrata benthic assemblages (648 ± 909). In situ observations of substrata by SCUBA divers provided estimates of 59% hard (4700 km) and 12% soft (960 km) substrata on seasonally ice-free shores of the Antarctic Peninsula, giving an estimate of 253,000 t C at 20 m depth, with a sequestration potential of ~4500 t C year-1. Currently, 54% of the shoreline is permanently ice covered and so climate-mediated ice loss along the Peninsula is predicted to more than double this carbon sink. The steep fjordic shorelines make these assemblages a globally important pathway to sequestration, acting as one of the few negative (mitigating) feedbacks to climate change. The proposed WAP marine protected area could safeguard this ecosystem service, helping to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises.

Evolutionary constraints on physiology confound range shift predictions of two nacellid limpets.

Physiological comparisons are fundamental to quantitative assessments of the capacity of species to persist within their current distribution and to predict their rates of redistribution in response to climate change. Yet, the degree to which physiological traits are conserved through evolutionary history may fundamentally constrain the capacity for species to adapt and shift their geographic range. Taxa that straddle major climate transitions provide the opportunity to test the mechanisms underlying evolutionary constraints and how such constraints may influence range shift predictions. Here we focus on two abundant and shallow water nacellid limpets which have representative species on either side of the Polar front. We test the thermal thresholds of the Southern Patagonian limpet, Nacella deaurata and show that its optimal temperatures for growth (4 °C), activity (-1.2 to -0.2 °C) and survival (1 to 8 °C) are mismatched to its currently experienced annual sea surface temperature range (5.9 to 10 °C). Comparisons with the congeneric Antarctic limpet, N. concinna, reveal an evolutionary constraint on N. deaurata physiology, with overlapping thermal capacities, suggesting that a cold climate legacy has been maintained through the evolution of these species. These physiological assessments predict that the South American range of N. deaurata will likely decline with continued warming. It is, however, one of the first species with demonstrated physiological capacity to successfully colonize the cold Southern Ocean. With the expected increase in opportunities for transport within high southern latitudes, N. deaurata has the potential to establish and drive ecological change within the shallow Southern Ocean.

1 °C warming increases spatial competition frequency and complexity in Antarctic marine macrofauna.

Environmental conditions of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica have varied little for >5 million years but are now changing. Here, we investigated how warming affects competition for space. Little considered in the polar regions, this is a critical component of biodiversity response. Change in competition in response to environment forcing might be detectable earlier than individual species presence/absence or performance measures (e.g. growth). Examination of fauna on artificial substrata in Antarctica's shallows at ambient or warmed temperature found that, mid-century predicted 1°C warming (throughout the year or just summer-only), increased the probability of individuals encountering spatial competition, as well as density and complexity of such interactions. 2°C, late century predicted warming, increased variance in the probability and density of competition, but overall, competition did not significantly differ from ambient (control) levels. In summary only 1°C warming increased probability, density and complexity of spatial competition, which seems to be summer-only driven.