Crisis Decision-Making at the Speed of COVID-19: Field Report on Issuing the First Regional Shelter-in-Place Orders in the United States.

CONTEXT: In March, 2020, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was spreading in the Bay Area, especially in Santa Clara County, causing increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. PROGRAM: The Association of Bay Area Health Officials (ABAHO) represents 13 Bay Area health jurisdictions. IMPLEMENTATION: On March 15, 2020, the local health officers of 7 ABAHO members (counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara and the city of Berkeley) decided to issue legal orders on March 16 for 6.7 million residents to shelter in place to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19. The Bay Area was the first region in the United States to shelter in place, and within days, other regions in the United States followed. EVALUATION: Subsequent comparative analyses have confirmed that acting early in issuing shelter-in-place orders prevented a large number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the Bay Area throughout the United States. The quality of a decision-in this case, for crisis decision making-cannot be judged by the outcome. A good decision can have a bad outcome, and a bad decision can have a good outcome. The quality of a decision depends only on the quality of the decision-making process at the time the decision was made. DISCUSSION: In this Field Report, we review how we made this collective decision. With the benefit of hindsight and reflection, we recount our story through the lens of public health legal authority, meta-leadership, and decision intelligence. Our purpose is to improve the crisis decision-making skills of public health officials by improving how we make high-stakes decisions each day in our continuing fight to contain the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to save lives, and to eliminate COVID-19 racial/ethnic inequities.

Exercise as a substitute for traditional airway clearance in cystic fibrosis: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Exercise and traditional airway clearance techniques (ACTs) are both routinely recommended for people with cystic fibrosis (CF), with some people using exercise as a substitute for traditional ACTs. The effectiveness of this is unclear. We systematically reviewed the evidence for using exercise as a substitute for traditional ACTs in people with CF. METHODS: A systematic database and literature search were undertaken of studies comparing exercise to rest or traditional ACTs. Primary outcomes were respiratory function, respiratory exacerbations and health-related quality of life. Secondary outcomes included mucociliary clearance (MCC), sputum weight and ease of expectoration. Data are mean difference (95% CI). RESULTS: A total of 12 studies (15 reports) were included, all of short duration (single session to 2 weeks). In crossover trials, exercise did not improve forced expiratory volume in one second in comparison to rest, but peak expiratory flow was increased during treadmill exercise (mean difference (MD) range 1.00-1.16 L/s) and cycle ergometry (1.19 (0.96 to 1.42) L/s). Treadmill exercise improved MCC (2.6 (1.6 to 3.6)%) and ease of expectoration (MD range 1.3-1.8 cm) compared with rest. No consistent differences in respiratory function were evident when exercise was compared with traditional ACTs (four crossover studies). There was no significant difference in MCC or sputum weight in studies where forced expirations were included in the exercise intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise improves ease of expectoration and sputum clearance compared with rest. Exercise, incorporating forced expirations, may have similar effects to traditional ACTs over the short term. There are no data comparing exercise to traditional ACTs over the longer term. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018102780.

A Genomic Survey of SARS-CoV-2 Reveals Multiple Introductions into Northern California without a Predominant Lineage.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally, resulting in >300,000 reported cases worldwide as of March 21st, 2020. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California using samples from returning travelers, cruise ship passengers, and cases of community transmission with unclear infection sources. Virus genomes were sampled from 29 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection from Feb 3rd through Mar 15th. Phylogenetic analyses revealed at least 8 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages, suggesting multiple independent introductions of the virus into the state. Virus genomes from passengers on two consecutive excursions of the Grand Princess cruise ship clustered with those from an established epidemic in Washington State, including the WA1 genome representing the first reported case in the United States on January 19th. We also detected evidence for presumptive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages from one community to another. These findings suggest that cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California to date is characterized by multiple transmission chains that originate via distinct introductions from international and interstate travel, rather than widespread community transmission of a single predominant lineage. Rapid testing and contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions are measures that will help to slow SARS-CoV-2 spread in California and other regions of the USA.

Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally, with >365,000 cases in California as of 17 July 2020. We investigated the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern California from late January to mid-March 2020, using samples from 36 patients spanning nine counties and the Grand Princess cruise ship. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the cryptic introduction of at least seven different SARS-CoV-2 lineages into California, including epidemic WA1 strains associated with Washington state, with lack of a predominant lineage and limited transmission among communities. Lineages associated with outbreak clusters in two counties were defined by a single base substitution in the viral genome. These findings support contact tracing, social distancing, and travel restrictions to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in California and other states.

Airway clearance by exercising in mild cystic fibrosis (ACE-CF): A feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: People with cystic fibrosis (CF) are encouraged to perform airway clearance techniques on a daily basis. Whilst several short-term studies support a potential role for exercise as an airway clearance technique, to date no medium to longer term studies have investigated the use of exercise as a stand-alone airway clearance technique. OBJECTIVE: To determine the feasibility of a protocol investigating the use of exercise as a stand-alone form of airway clearance in adults with CF. METHODS: Adults with CF and a FEV1 ≥ 70% predicted were eligible. After a four week wash-in period of daily positive expiratory pressure (PEP) and exercise, adherent participants were randomised to either daily PEP plus exercise or exercise-only for three months. Pre-specified thresholds for feasibility for the primary outcomes were rates of recruitment ≥30%, randomisation ≥80% and completion ≥80%. Secondary outcomes included respiratory function tests, respiratory exacerbation rate and health-related quality of life. RESULTS: Of the 57 eligible patients identified, 17 were recruited (30%). After the wash-in period, 13 of the 17 participants (76%) were randomised and all 13 (100%) completed the final assessment. The median (IQR) change in FEV1 (L) over the intervention period was 0.00 (-0.08 - 0.15) L for the PEP plus exercise group and -0.03 (-0.19 - 0.13) L for the exercise-only group. CONCLUSION: The study achieved its a priori target feasibility rates for recruitment and completion but failed to meet the randomisation target rate. Changes in lung function and quality of life were similar between groups. Further refinement of the protocol may be required prior to expansion to a multi-centred trial.

Prevalence of maternal depressive symptoms in low-income Hispanic women.

BACKGROUND: Maternal depression can have significant repercussions for the health and well-being of mothers and children. In primarily white middle-income populations, approximately 15% of mothers experience depression. Among ethnically and socioeconomically diverse populations, the prevalence of maternal depression has not been as well established. However, the highest rates have been observed among low-income women. Because information about minority, underserved women is particularly sparse, we utilize data from the San Mateo County, California, Prenatal to Three project to describe the prevalence and self-recognition of depressive symptoms among low-income Hispanic mothers of infants and toddlers. METHOD: Telephone interviews of a random sample of women who received Medicaid and gave birth in San Mateo County provided our sample of 218 nonpregnant Hispanic mothers. High levels of depressive symptoms were defined as a score of > or =10 on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). We performed descriptive analyses and analyses of variance. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of mothers reported high levels of depressive symptoms. Half of them recognized a need for help with depression. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of maternal depressive symptoms were prevalent among the Hispanic women on Medicaid, but only half of the women experiencing these symptoms identified themselves as needing help with depression.

Self-recognition of and provider response to maternal depressive symptoms in low-income Hispanic women.

BACKGROUND: One quarter of mothers of young children experience high levels of depressive symptoms, and only half are identified by themselves or their providers. Little is known about what factors influence maternal and provider recognition of depression. We use data from the San Mateo County, California, Prenatal to Three project to explore self-recognition, provider response, and referral among low-income Hispanic mothers of infants and toddlers. The goals are (1) to describe the patterns of self-recognition of maternal depression, maternal reporting of health professional response, and referrals for mental health services as related to depression severity and (2) to identify determinants of self-recognition, provider response, and mental health referrals. METHODS: Our sample consists of 218 nonpregnant Hispanic mothers in San Mateo County. Self-recognition was defined as an affirmative answer to the question, "Have you thought that you needed help with sadness or depression since your child was born?" High depressive symptoms were defined as a score of > or =10 on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). We performed chi-square and logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Twenty-eight percent responded that they needed help with depression since the birth of their baby. Less than half discussed depressive feelings with their provider. Depression recognition factors differed between mothers and health professionals. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal depression is prevalent among Hispanic women on Medicaid but is not readily detected by women or providers. Women and providers use different cues to identify depression, possibly leading to communication discrepancies. Further research on the factors that influence self-recognition and provider recognition of maternal depression is needed.

Hepatitis B sero-prevalence and risk behaviors among immigrant men in a population-based household survey in low-income neighborhoods of northern California.

BACKGROUND: Despite an effective vaccine, 60,000 new HBV infections were reported in the US in 2004; 95% in adults. We evaluate HBV sero-prevalence, risk behaviors and self-reported vaccination among Latino immigrant, Asian immigrant and US born low income men in five northern California counties. METHODS: Population based, cross sectional survey of HBV sero-prevalence and risk behaviors in men aged 18 to 35 years. RESULTS: Among 1,512 men screened, Asian immigrants were most likely to have had prior HBV infection (15.1%) and chronic infection (3.8%) compared to US born (prior 5.1%, chronic 0.6%) and Latino immigrant men (prior 2.0%, chronic 0.3%.) Reported HBV vaccination was lowest for Latino immigrants (12%) compared to Asian immigrants and US born men (35% in both.) Latino immigrants reported less educational attainment, medical insurance coverage and access to a physician in the last six months. DISCUSSION: Healthcare providers should routinely screen Asian immigrants for HBV regardless of their self reported vaccination status. Latino immigrants may comprise an important group of under-vaccinated, at risk persons in California. HBV testing and vaccination of immigrants soon after US arrival should be encouraged.

HIV-related risk behavior among Hispanic immigrant men in a population-based household survey in low-income neighborhoods of northern California.

OBJECTIVES/GOAL: We compared risk behaviors and HIV testing between recent (in the U.S. <5 years) and established (in the U.S. >5 years) Hispanic immigrant men (N = 410). STUDY: This study was a population-based, cross-sectional survey of HIV/sexually transmitted disease markers and risk behaviors in men age 18 to 35 years residing in low-income census block groups in 3 northern California counties. RESULTS: Recent immigrants were less likely to currently have a main sexual partner (45.3% vs. 67.2%, P <0.01) and more likely to have ever used commercial sex workers (40.0% vs. 27.6%, P <0.01). Recent immigrants were less likely to receive medical care in the last 6 months (21.2% vs. 31.3%, P = 0.04) or had ever been HIV tested (26.0% vs. 43.3%, P <0.01). Established immigrants more likely reported unprotected sex, hallucinogen or ecstasy use. CONCLUSIONS: Recent Hispanic immigrants have less stable sexual partnerships and less health-seeking behavior, including HIV testing. Established immigrants report HIV test rates comparable to the national average.

Hepatitis C virus infection in young, low-income women: the role of sexually transmitted infection as a potential cofactor for HCV infection.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in women residing in low-income neighborhoods of northern California. METHODS: A population-based sample of 1707 women, aged 18 to 29, were surveyed and screened for sexually transmitted infections and HCV. RESULTS: Women infected with HCV (2.5%) were more likely to have a history of injection and noninjection drug use, to exchange sex for money or drugs, and to have sexually transmitted infections. HCV was independently associated with history of injection drug use, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection, and heroin and cocaine use. CONCLUSIONS: Injection drug use is the highest risk exposure for HCV, but HSV-2 and noninjection drug use contribute significantly to increased risk. HCV prevention programs in impoverished areas should integrate drug treatment and sexually transmitted infection control.