Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis if the HCC incidence rate is above 1.5 per 100 person-years (PY). However, the incidence threshold for surveillance in individuals who achieve a virologic cure is unknown. We estimated the HCC incidence rate above which routine HCC surveillance is cost-effective in this growing population of virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis. METHODS: We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C who achieved virologic cure with oral direct-acting antivirals. We used published data on the natural history of hepatitis C, competing risk post virologic cure, HCC tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, contemporary HCC treatment options and associated costs, and utilities of different health states. We estimated the HCC incidence above which biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein would be cost-effective. RESULTS: In virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, HCC surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.7 per 100 PY using $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay. At this HCC incidence, routine HCC surveillance would result in 2650 and 5700 additional life years per 100,000 cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis persons, respectively, compared with no surveillance. At $150,000 willingness-to-pay, surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.4 per 100 PY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the threshold mostly remained below 1.5 per 100 PY. CONCLUSIONS: The contemporary HCC incidence threshold is much lower than the previous 1.5% incidence value used to guide HCC surveillance decisions. Updating clinical guidelines could improve the early diagnosis of HCC.

Methane fluxes in tidal marshes of the conterminous United States.

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) with atmospheric concentrations that have nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. Wetlands account for a large share of global CH4 emissions, yet the magnitude and factors controlling CH4 fluxes in tidal wetlands remain uncertain. We synthesized CH4 flux data from 100 chamber and 9 eddy covariance (EC) sites across tidal marshes in the conterminous United States to assess controlling factors and improve predictions of CH4 emissions. This effort included creating an open-source database of chamber-based GHG fluxes (https://doi.org/10.25573/serc.14227085). Annual fluxes across chamber and EC sites averaged 26 ± 53 g CH4 m-2 year-1, with a median of 3.9 g CH4 m-2 year-1, and only 25% of sites exceeding 18 g CH4 m-2 year-1. The highest fluxes were observed at fresh-oligohaline sites with daily maximum temperature normals (MATmax) above 25.6°C. These were followed by frequently inundated low and mid-fresh-oligohaline marshes with MATmax ≤25.6°C, and mesohaline sites with MATmax >19°C. Quantile regressions of paired chamber CH4 flux and porewater biogeochemistry revealed that the 90th percentile of fluxes fell below 5 ± 3 nmol m-2 s-1 at sulfate concentrations >4.7 ± 0.6 mM, porewater salinity >21 ± 2 psu, or surface water salinity >15 ± 3 psu. Across sites, salinity was the dominant predictor of annual CH4 fluxes, while within sites, temperature, gross primary productivity (GPP), and tidal height controlled variability at diel and seasonal scales. At the diel scale, GPP preceded temperature in importance for predicting CH4 flux changes, while the opposite was observed at the seasonal scale. Water levels influenced the timing and pathway of diel CH4 fluxes, with pulsed releases of stored CH4 at low to rising tide. This study provides data and methods to improve tidal marsh CH4 emission estimates, support blue carbon assessments, and refine national and global GHG inventories.

Part 2: Current Concepts in Radiologic Imaging & Intervention in Acute Biliary Tract Diseases.

Acute cholangitis is encountered commonly in critically ill, often elderly, patients. The most common causes of cholangitis include choledocholithiasis, biliary strictures, and infection from previous endoscopic, percutaneous, or surgical intervention of the biliary tract. Rare causes of acute cholangitis in the United States include sclerosing cholangitis and recurrent pyogenic cholangitis, the latter predominantly occurring in immigrants of Asian descent. Multidisciplinary management of these conditions is essential, with intensivists, surgeons, diagnostic radiologists, interventional radiologists, gastroenterologists, endoscopists, and infectious disease physicians typically involved in the care of these patients. In this paper intended for intensivists predominantly, we will review the imaging findings and radiologic interventional management of critically ill patients with acute cholangitis, primary and secondary sclerosing cholangitis, and recurrent pyogenic cholangitis.

Part 1: Current Concepts in Radiologic Imaging and Intervention in Acute Cholecystitis.

Acute calculous cholecystitis and acute acalculous cholecystitis are encountered commonly among critically ill, often elderly, patients. Multidisciplinary management of these conditions is essential, with intensivists, surgeons, diagnostic radiologists, interventional radiologists, infectious disease physicians, gastroenterologists, and endoscopists able to contribute to patient care. In this article intended predominantly for intensivists, we will review the imaging findings and radiologic treatment of critically ill patients with acute calculous cholecystitis and acute acalculous cholecystitis.

Proteome-wide identification of HSP70/HSC70 chaperone clients in human cells.

The 70 kDa heat shock protein (HSP70) family of chaperones are the front line of protection from stress-induced misfolding and aggregation of polypeptides in most organisms and are responsible for promoting the stability, folding, and degradation of clients to maintain cellular protein homeostasis. Here, we demonstrate quantitative identification of HSP70 and 71 kDa heat shock cognate (HSC70) clients using a ubiquitin-mediated proximity tagging strategy and show that, despite their high degree of similarity, these enzymes have largely nonoverlapping specificities. Both proteins show a preference for association with newly synthesized polypeptides, but each responds differently to changes in the stoichiometry of proteins in obligate multi-subunit complexes. In addition, expression of an amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)-associated superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) mutant protein induces changes in HSP70 and HSC70 client association and aggregation toward polypeptides with predicted disorder, indicating that there are global effects from a single misfolded protein that extend to many clients within chaperone networks. Together these findings show that the ubiquitin-activated interaction trap (UBAIT) fusion system can efficiently isolate the complex interactome of HSP chaperone family proteins under normal and stress conditions.

A multimorbidity model for estimating health outcomes from the syndemic of injection drug use and associated infections in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Fatal drug overdoses and serious injection-related infections are rising in the US. Multiple concurrent infections in people who inject drugs (PWID) exacerbate poor health outcomes, but little is known about how the synergy among infections compounds clinical outcomes and costs. Injection drug use (IDU) converges multiple epidemics into a syndemic in the US, including opioid use and HIV. Estimated rates of new injection-related infections in the US are limited due to widely varying estimates of the number of PWID in the US, and in the absence of clinical trials and nationally representative longitudinal observational studies of PWID, simulation models provide important insights to policymakers for informed decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a MultimorbiditY model to Reduce Infections Associated with Drug use (MYRIAD). This microsimulation model of drug use and associated infections (HIV, hepatitis C virus [HCV], and severe bacterial infections) uses inputs derived from published data to estimate national level trends in the US. We used Latin hypercube sampling to calibrate model output against published data from 2015 to 2019 for fatal opioid overdose rates. We internally validated the model for HIV and HCV incidence and bacterial infection hospitalization rates among PWID. We identified best fitting parameter sets that met pre-established goodness-of-fit targets using the Pearson's chi-square test. We externally validated the model by comparing model output to published fatal opioid overdose rates from 2020. RESULTS: Out of 100 sample parameter sets for opioid use, the model produced 3 sets with well-fitting results to key calibration targets for fatal opioid overdose rates with Pearson's chi-square test ranging from 1.56E-5 to 2.65E-5, and 2 sets that met validation targets. The model produced well-fitting results within validation targets for HIV and HCV incidence and serious bacterial infection hospitalization rates. From 2015 to 2019, the model estimated 120,000 injection-related overdose deaths, 17,000 new HIV infections, and 144,000 new HCV infections among PWID. CONCLUSIONS: This multimorbidity microsimulation model, populated with data from national surveillance data and published literature, accurately replicated fatal opioid overdose, incidence of HIV and HCV, and serious bacterial infections hospitalization rates. The MYRIAD model of IDU could be an important tool to assess clinical and economic outcomes related to IDU behavior and infections with serious morbidity and mortality for PWID.

Biota-mediated carbon cycling-A synthesis of biotic-interaction controls on blue carbon.

Research into biotic interactions has been a core theme of ecology for over a century. However, despite the obvious role that biota play in the global carbon cycle, the effects of biotic interactions on carbon pools and fluxes are poorly understood. Here we develop a conceptual framework that illustrates the importance of biotic interactions in regulating carbon cycling based on a literature review and a quantitative synthesis by means of meta-analysis. Our study focuses on blue carbon ecosystems-vegetated coastal ecosystems that function as the most effective long-term CO2 sinks of the biosphere. We demonstrate that a multitude of mutualistic, competitive and consumer-resource interactions between plants, animals and microbiota exert strong effects on carbon cycling across various spatial scales ranging from the rhizosphere to the landscape scale. Climate change-sensitive abiotic factors modulate the strength of biotic-interaction effects on carbon fluxes, suggesting that the importance of biota-mediated carbon cycling will change under future climatic conditions. Strong effects of biotic interactions on carbon cycling imply that biosphere-climate feedbacks may not be sufficiently represented in current Earth system models. Inclusion of new functional groups in these models, and new approaches to simplify species interactions, may thus improve the predictions of biotic effects on the global climate.

Duration and cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in hepatitis C patients after viral eradication.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance. RESULTS: In virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis. LAY SUMMARY: Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

Genetic testing to guide screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Results of a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: First-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have elevated PDAC risk, partially due to germline genetic variants. We evaluated the potential effectiveness of genetic testing to target MRI-based screening among FDRs. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of PDAC, calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, to estimate the potential life expectancy (LE) gain of screening for each of the following groups of FDRs: individuals who test positive for each of eight variants associated with elevated PDAC risk (e.g., BRCA2, CDKN2A); individuals who test negative; and individuals who do not test. Screening was assumed to take place if LE gains were achievable. We simulated multiple screening approaches, defined by starting age and frequency. Sensitivity analysis evaluated changes in results given varying model assumptions. RESULTS: For women, 92% of mutation carriers had projected LE gains from screening for PDAC, if screening strategies (start age, frequency) were optimized. Among carriers, LE gains ranged from 0.1 days (ATM+ women screened once at age 70) to 510 days (STK11+ women screened annually from age 40). For men, LE gains were projected for all mutation carriers, ranging from 0.2 days (BRCA1+ men screened once at age 70) to 620 days (STK11+ men screened annually from age 40). For men and women who did not undergo genetic testing, or for whom testing showed no variant, screening yielded small LE benefit (0-2.1 days). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic testing of FDRs can inform targeted PDAC screening by identifying which FDRs may benefit.

Radiokrypton unveils dual moisture sources of a deep desert aquifer.

In arid regions, groundwater is a vital resource that can also provide a long-term record of the regional water cycle. However, the use of groundwater as a paleoclimate proxy has been limited by the complex hydrology and the lack of appropriate chronometers to determine the recharge time without complication. Applying 81Kr, a long-lived radioisotope tracer, we investigate the paleohydroclimate and subsurface water storage properties of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer in the Negev Desert, Israel. Based on the spatial distributions of stable isotopes and the abundance of 81Kr, we resolve subsurface mixing and identify two distinct moisture sources of the recharge: one recent (<38 ky ago) from the Mediterranean and the other 361 ± 30 ky ago from the tropical Atlantic, both of which occurred under conditions of low orbital eccentricity comparable to that of the present. The recent recharge provided by the moisture from Mediterranean cyclones can be attributed to the southward shift of the storm track during the Last Glacial Maximum, and the earlier recharge can be attributed to moisture from the Atlantic delivered as tropical plumes under a climate colder than the present. Furthermore, the residence time of the latter reveals that tectonically active terrain can store groundwater for an unexpectedly long period, likely due to strongly attenuated groundwater flow across the fault zones. With this tracer, groundwater can now serve as a direct record of paleoprecipitation over land and of subsurface water storage from the mid-Pleistocene and onward.

SAR Studies of the Leupyrrins: Design and Total Synthesis of Highly Potent Simplified Leupylogs.

Leupyrrins are highly potent antifungal agents. A structure-activity-relationship study of natural and synthetic derivatives is reported which reveals important insights into the biological relevance of several structural subunits leading to the discovery of highly potent but drastically simplified leupylogs that incorporate a stable and readily available aromatic side chain. For their synthesis a concise strategy is described that enables a short and versatile access.

SAR Studies of the Leupyrrins: Design and Total Synthesis of Highly Potent Simplified Leupylogs.

Invited for the cover of this issue is the group of Dirk Menche at the University of Bonn. The image depicts the natural product leupyrrin A1 and a synthetic leupylog in balance on an IC50 weighing scale. Read the full text of the article at 10.1002/chem.202002622.

Dynamics of oxygen and carbon dioxide in rhizospheres of Lobelia dortmanna - a planar optode study of belowground gas exchange between plants and sediment.

Root-mediated CO2 uptake, O2 release and their effects on O2 and CO2 dynamics in the rhizosphere of Lobelia dortmanna were investigated. Novel planar optode technology, imaging CO2 and O2 distribution around single roots, provided insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of gas exchange between roots, sediment and microbial community. In light, O2 release and CO2 uptake were pronounced, resulting in a distinct oxygenated zone (radius: c. 3 mm) and a CO2 -depleted zone (radius: c. 2 mm) around roots. Simultaneously, however, microbial CO2 production was stimulated within a larger zone around the roots (radius: c. 10 mm). This gave rise to a distinct pattern with a CO2 minimum at the root surface and a CO2 maximum c. 2 mm away from the root. In darkness, CO2 uptake ceased, and the CO2 -depleted zone disappeared within 2 h. By contrast, the oxygenated root zone remained even after 8 h, but diminished markedly over time. A tight coupling between photosynthetic processes and the spatiotemporal dynamics of O2 and CO2 in the rhizosphere of Lobelia was demonstrated, and we suggest that O2 -induced stimulation of the microbial community in the sediment increases the supply of inorganic carbon for photosynthesis by building up a CO2 reservoir in the rhizosphere.

Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) METHODS: We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. RESULTS: We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.

Cell cycle dependent changes in the plasma membrane organization of mammalian cells.

Lipid membranes are major structural elements of all eukaryotic and prokaryotic organisms. Although many aspects of their biology have been studied extensively, their dynamics and lateral heterogeneity are still not fully understood. Recently, we observed a cell-to-cell variability in the plasma membrane organization of CHO-K1 cells (Schwarzer et al., 2014). We surmised that cell cycle dependent changes of the individual cells from our unsynchronized cell population account for this phenomenon. In the present study, this hypothesis was tested. To this aim, CHO-K1 cells were arrested in different cell cycle phases by chemical treatments, and the order of their plasma membranes was determined by various fluorescent lipid analogues using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy. Our experiments exhibit significant differences in the membrane order of cells arrested in the G2/M or S phase compared to control cells. Our single-cell analysis also enabled the specific selection of mitotic cells, which displayed a significant increase of the membrane order compared to the control. In addition, the lipid raft marker GPImYFP was used to study the lateral organization of cell cycle arrested cells as well as mitotic cells and freely cycling samples. Again, significant differences were found between control and arrested cells and even more pronounced between control and mitotic cells. Our data demonstrate a direct correlation between cell cycle progression and plasma membrane organization, underlining that cell-to-cell heterogeneities of membrane properties have to be taken into account in cellular studies especially at the single-cell level.

Top-down control of carbon sequestration: grazing affects microbial structure and function in salt marsh soils.

Tidal wetlands have been increasingly recognized as long-term carbon sinks in recent years. Work on carbon sequestration and decomposition processes in tidal wetlands focused so far mainly on effects of global-change factors such as sea-level rise and increasing temperatures. However, little is known about effects of land use, such as livestock grazing, on organic matter decomposition and ultimately carbon sequestration. The present work aims at understanding the mechanisms by which large herbivores can affect organic matter decomposition in tidal wetlands. This was achieved by studying both direct animal-microbe interactions and indirect animal-plant-microbe interactions in grazed and ungrazed areas of two long-term experimental field sites at the German North Sea coast. We assessed bacterial and fungal gene abundance using quantitative PCR, as well as the activity of microbial exo-enzymes by conducting fluorometric assays. We demonstrate that grazing can have a profound impact on the microbial community structure of tidal wetland soils, by consistently increasing the fungi-to-bacteria ratio by 38-42%, and therefore potentially exerts important control over carbon turnover and sequestration. The observed shift in the microbial community was primarily driven by organic matter source, with higher contributions of recalcitrant autochthonous (terrestrial) vs. easily degradable allochthonous (marine) sources in grazed areas favoring relative fungal abundance. We propose a novel and indirect form of animal-plant-microbe interaction: top-down control of aboveground vegetation structure determines the capacity of allochthonous organic matter trapping during flooding and thus the structure of the microbial community. Furthermore, our data provide the first evidence that grazing slows down microbial exo-enzyme activity and thus decomposition through changes in soil redox chemistry. Activities of enzymes involved in C cycling were reduced by 28-40%, while activities of enzymes involved in N cycling were not consistently affected by grazing. It remains unclear if this is a trampling-driven direct grazing effect, as hypothesized in earlier studies, or if the effect on redox chemistry is plant mediated and thus indirect. This study improves our process-level understanding of how grazing can affect the microbial ecology and biogeochemistry of semi-terrestrial ecosystems that may help explain and predict differences in C turnover and sequestration rates between grazed and ungrazed systems.

Image-Guided Percutaneous Omental and Mesenteric Biopsy: Assessment of Technical Success Rate and Diagnostic Yield.

PURPOSE: To assess biopsy technique, technical success rate, and diagnostic yield of image-guided percutaneous biopsy of omental and mesenteric lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 186 patients (89 men, 97 women; mean [SD] age, 63 [13.8] y) who underwent percutaneous image-guided biopsy of omentum and mesentery between March 2007 and August 2015. Biopsies were performed with computed tomography (CT) (n = 172) or ultrasound (US) (n = 14) guidance using coaxial technique yielding core and fine-needle aspiration (FNA) specimens. Biopsy results were classified as diagnostic (neoplastic or nonneoplastic) or nondiagnostic based on histopathology and cytology. Technical success rate and diagnostic yield of omental and mesenteric lesions were calculated. RESULTS: There were 186 image-guided percutaneous biopsies of omental (n = 95) and mesenteric (n = 91) lesions performed. Technical success rate was 99.5% for all biopsies, 100% for omental biopsies, and 98.9% for mesenteric biopsies. Overall sensitivity was 95.5%, specificity was 100%, negative predictive value was 78.3%, and positive predictive value was 100%, which was comparable for omental and mesenteric biopsies. Core biopsies had higher diagnostic yields compared with FNA: 98.4% versus 84% overall, 99% versus 88% for omental biopsies, and 97.7% versus 80% for mesenteric biopsies. Spearman rank correlation showed no correlation between lesion size and diagnostic yield (P = .14) and lesion depth and diagnostic yield (P = .29) for both groups. There were 5 complications. CONCLUSIONS: Image-guided percutaneous omental and mesenteric biopsies have high technical success rates and diagnostic yield regardless of lesion size or depth from the skin for both omental and mesenteric specimens.

Bayesian nonparametric statistics: A new toolkit for discovery in cancer research.

Many commonly used statistical methods for data analysis or clinical trial design rely on incorrect assumptions or assume an over-simplified framework that ignores important information. Such statistical practices may lead to incorrect conclusions about treatment effects or clinical trial designs that are impractical or that do not accurately reflect the investigator's goals. Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models and methods are a very flexible new class of statistical tools that can overcome such limitations. This is because BNP models can accurately approximate any distribution or function and can accommodate a broad range of statistical problems, including density estimation, regression, survival analysis, graphical modeling, neural networks, classification, clustering, population models, forecasting and prediction, spatiotemporal models, and causal inference. This paper describes 3 illustrative applications of BNP methods, including a randomized clinical trial to compare treatments for intraoperative air leaks after pulmonary resection, estimating survival time with different multi-stage chemotherapy regimes for acute leukemia, and evaluating joint effects of targeted treatment and an intermediate biological outcome on progression-free survival time in prostate cancer.