Proximal predictors of gun violence among adolescent males involved in crime.

The growing public health and legal concerns regarding gun violence has led to a call for research that investigates risk factors for gun violence across a variety of domains. Individual and sociocontextual risk factors have been associated with violence more broadly, and in some instances gun-carrying, however no prior research has investigated the role of these factors in explaining gun violence using longitudinal data. The current study utilized a subsample (N = 161) from the Pathways to Desistance Study, which is a longitudinal sample of serious adolescent offenders to evaluate interindividual and intraindividual differences in relevant risk factors of gun violence. Results suggest that there are a few key proximal individual-level and sociocontextual predictors for gun violence, including witnessing nongun violence, future orientation, and perceived personal rewards to crime. Findings demonstrate the salience of exposure to violence in contributing to gun violence and identify levers of action for public policy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

The Relationships Among Exposure to Violence, Psychological Distress, and Gun Carrying Among Male Adolescents Found Guilty of Serious Legal Offenses: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Gun violence and psychological problems are often conflated in public discourse on gun safety. However, few studies have empirically assessed the effect of exposure to violence when exploring the association between gun carrying and psychological distress. OBJECTIVE: To examine the potential effect of exposure to violence on the associations between gun carrying and psychological distress among vulnerable adolescents. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: The Pathways to Desistance study, a study of youths found guilty of a serious criminal offense in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, or Maricopa County, Arizona. PARTICIPANTS: 1170 male youths aged 14 to 19 years who had been found guilty of a serious criminal offense. MEASUREMENTS: Youths were assessed at baseline and at four 6-month intervals with regard to gun carrying ("Have you carried a gun?"), psychological distress (Global Severity Index), and exposure to violence (modified version of the Exposure to Violence Inventory). RESULTS: At the bivariate level, gun carrying was consistently associated with higher levels of psychological distress. However, the association between psychological distress and gun carrying diminished or disappeared when exposure to violence was considered. Exposure to violence (as either a victim or a witness) was significantly related to gun carrying at all follow-up assessments, with increased odds of gun carrying ranging from 1.43 to 1.87 with each additional report of exposure to violence. LIMITATIONS: The study sample was limited to justice-involved male youths. Precarrying distress and exposure to violence could not be fully captured because many participants had initiated gun carrying before baseline. CONCLUSION: In male youths involved in the criminal justice system, the relationship between psychological distress and gun carrying seems to be influenced by exposure to violence (either experiencing or witnessing it). Further study is warranted to explore whether interventions after exposure to violence could reduce gun carrying in this population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

The Link Between Mental Illness and Firearm Violence: Implications for Social Policy and Clinical Practice.

The United States has substantially higher levels of firearm violence than most other developed countries. Firearm violence is a significant and preventable public health crisis. Mental illness is a weak risk factor for violence despite popular misconceptions reflected in the media and policy. That said, mental health professionals play a critical role in assessing their patients for violence risk, counseling about firearm safety, and guiding the creation of rational and evidence-based public policy that can be effective in mitigating violence risk without unnecessarily stigmatizing people with mental illness. This article summarizes existing evidence about the interplay among mental illness, violence, and firearms, with particular attention paid to the role of active symptoms, addiction, victimization, and psychosocial risk factors. The social and legal context of firearm ownership is discussed as a preface to exploring practical, evidence-driven, and behaviorally informed policy recommendations for mitigating firearm violence risk.

Risk and Outcomes: Are Adolescents Charged with Sex Offenses Different from Other Adolescent Offenders?

Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses are subject to specialized treatment and policies based on their assumed unique dangerousness, despite contradictory evidence. Limited information is available regarding risk factors and their relationships to outcomes in this population. The comparative frequency and predictive utility of empirically supported risk factors for general delinquency were examined using data from the Pathways to Desistance study. Adolescent males who committed sexual offenses (n = 127) were compared to adolescent males who committed non-sexual offenses (n = 1021). At the start of the study, the sample ranged in age from 14 to 18 (M = 16.00, SD = 1.12) and self-identified as primarily African American (44 %), Latino (29 %), or White (25 %). Outcomes were measured over 7 years and included general and sexual recidivism, involvement in school and work, and positive relationships with peers and adults. The results indicated a few small differences in the presence of risk factors and their relationship to outcomes, with many similarities. Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses had equivalent general recidivism but higher sexual recidivism, though this rate was low (7.87 %, or 10 of the 127 adolescents who had committed sexual offenses). New clinical and policy approaches may be needed given the similarities between groups.

Effect of Gun Carrying on Perceptions of Risk Among Adolescent Offenders.

OBJECTIVES: We observed how perceptions of risks, costs, crime rewards, and violence exposure change as individual gun-carrying behavior changes among high-risk adolescents. METHODS: We analyzed a longitudinal study (2000-2010) of serious juvenile offenders in Maricopa County, Arizona, or Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, assessing within-person changes in risk and reward perceptions, and violence exposure as individuals initiated or ceased gun carrying. RESULTS: Despite being associated with heightened exposure to violence, gun carrying was linked to lower perceptions of risks and costs and higher perceived rewards of offending. Gun carrying was not time-stable, as certain individuals both started and stopped carrying during the study. Within-person changes in carrying guns were associated with shifting perceptions of risks, costs, and rewards of crime, and changes in exposure to violence in expected directions. CONCLUSIONS: Gun carrying reduces perceptions of risks associated with offending while increasing actual risk of violence exposure. This suggests that there is an important disconnect between perceptions and objective levels of safety among high-risk youths. Gun-carrying decisions may not only be influenced by factors of protection and self-defense, but also by perceptions of risks and reward associated with engaging in crime more generally.

An examination of change in dynamic risk of offending over time among serious juvenile offenders.

PURPOSE: We examine whether and how much risk/need indicators change over time in a sample of serious adolescent offenders and whether changes in risk are related to self-reported and official record reports of offending in the year following assessment. METHODS: Growth curve and multilevel mixed-effects models are used to examine change through age 18 in a sample of 1,354 serious adolescent offenders participating in the Pathways to Desistance Study. RESULTS: Three primary findings emerge: 1) Compared to the baseline assessment, overall risk/need scores decrease over time. 2) Risk/need does not change in a uniform sequence across domains and time; the form and rate of change differ by domain. 3) Risk/need indicators were related to later offending, with more recent indicators being more powerful for predicting rearrest. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide empirical support for recent efforts to incorporate routine risk/need assessment into juvenile justice practice. Repeated assessments are likely to identify fluctuations in areas of risk/need that can be used to inform case management and intervention efforts, even for serious offenders.

Reporting guidance for violence risk assessment predictive validity studies: the RAGEE Statement.

Available reporting guidelines for prognostic and diagnostic accuracy studies apply primarily to biological assessment and outcomes, overlooking behavioral issues with major public health and safety implications such as violence. The present study aimed to develop the first set of reporting guidance for predictive validity studies of violence risk assessments: the Risk Assessment Guidelines for the Evaluation of Efficacy (RAGEE) Statement. A systematic search of 8 electronic databases prior to September 2012 identified 279 reporting guidelines for prognostic and diagnostic accuracy studies. Unique items were extracted and modified to make them relevant to risk assessment. A 4-wave Delphi process involving a multidisciplinary team of 37 international experts resulted in a 50-item reporting checklist. The panelists endorsed the RAGEE Statement checklist as being highly satisfactory and as indicating study features that should be reported routinely in manuscripts. Use of these proposed standards has the potential to improve the quality of the risk assessment literature.

Justice policy reform for high-risk juveniles: using science to achieve large-scale crime reduction.

After a distinctly punitive era, a period of remarkable reform in juvenile crime regulation has begun. Practical urgency has fueled interest in both crime reduction and research on the prediction and malleability of criminal behavior. In this rapidly changing context, high-risk juveniles--the small proportion of the population where crime becomes concentrated--present a conundrum. Research indicates that these are precisely the individuals to treat intensively to maximize crime reduction, but there are both real and imagined barriers to doing so. Mitigation principles (during early adolescence, ages 10-13) and institutional placement or criminal court processing (during mid-late adolescence, ages 14-18) can prevent these juveniles from receiving interventions that would best protect public safety. In this review, we synthesize relevant research to help resolve this challenge in a manner that is consistent with the law's core principles. In our view, early adolescence offers unique opportunities for risk reduction that could (with modifications) be realized in the juvenile justice system in cooperation with other social institutions.

Assessing the nature and mix of offences among serious adolescent offenders.

BACKGROUND: Much of the research on specialisation in offending tends to show that offending careers are marked by more versatile than specific criminal activity. One key limitation of this research has been that very few studies have used both official records and self-reports to study the longitudinal mix of offences. AIMS: This study uses longitudinal data to examine the mixture of offences during mid-adolescence and into early adulthood, a key transitionary period of the life course, using both self-reports and official records. METHOD: Data from 1354 serious adolescent offenders are used to study the mixture of offences over a 7-year period. RESULTS: The results point strongly to the conclusion that generality is typical and specialisation is exceptional.

The Challenge and Opportunity of Parental Involvement in Juvenile Justice Services.

The active involvement of parents - whether as recipients, extenders, or managers of services - during their youth's experience with the juvenile justice system is widely assumed to be crucial. Parents and family advocacy groups note persisting concerns with the degree to which successful parental involvement is achieved. Justice system providers are highly motivated and actively working to make improvements. These coalescing interests provide a strong motivation for innovation and improvement regarding family involvement, but the likely success of these efforts is severely limited by the absence of any detailed definition of parental involvement or validated measure of this construct. Determining whether and how parental involvement works in juvenile justice services depends on the development of clear models and sound measurement. Efforts in other child serving systems offer guidance to achieve this goal. A multidimensional working model developed with parents involved in child protective services is presented as a template for developing a model for parental involvement in juvenile justice. Features of the model requiring changes to make it more adaptable to juvenile justice are identified. A systematic research agenda for developing methods and measures to meet the present demands for enhanced parental involvement in juvenile justice services is presented.

Psychosocial (im)maturity from adolescence to early adulthood: distinguishing between adolescence-limited and persisting antisocial behavior.

In the psychological tradition, desistance from antisocial behavior is viewed as the product of psychosocial maturation, including increases in the ability to control impulses, consider the implications of one's actions on others, delay gratification in the service of longer term goals, and resist the influences of peers. The present study investigates how individual variability in the development of psychosocial maturity is associated with desistance from antisocial behavior in a sample of 1,088 serious juvenile offenders followed from adolescence to early adulthood (ages 14-25). We find that psychosocial maturity continues to develop to the midtwenties and that different developmental patterns of maturation are found among those who desist and those who persist in antisocial behavior. Compared to individuals who desisted from antisocial behavior, youths who persisted exhibited diminished development of psychosocial maturity. Moreover, earlier desistance compared to later desistance is linked to greater psychosocial maturity, suggesting that there is an association between desistance from antisocial behavior and normative increases in psychosocial maturity.

Textual data in psychiatry: reasoning by analogy to quantitative principles.

Personal meaning in subjective experience is a key element in the treatment of persons with mental disorders. Open-response speech samples would appear to be suitable for studying this type of subjective experience, but there are still important challenges in using language as data. Scientific principles involved in sample size calculation, validity, and reliability may be applicable, by analogy, to data collected in the form of words. We describe a rationale for including computer-assisted techniques as one step of a qualitative analysis procedure that includes manual reading. Clarification of a framework for including language as data in psychiatric research may allow us to more effectively bridge biological and psychometric research with clinical practice, a setting where the patient's clinical "data" are, in large part, conveyed in words.

Violence risk: re-defining variables from the first-person perspective.

Over the past 25 years, there have been notable advances in violence risk assessment of mentally ill individuals using actuarial methods to define high versus low risk groups. A focus on readily observable risk factors, however, has led to a relative neglect of how the offender's subjective states may be valuable to consider in research on the ongoing assessment and prevention of violence. We argue for the relevance of considering idiographic features of subjective experience in the development of structured assessment methods. We then identify three heuristic groups of existing constructs related to aggressive and illegal behavior that may capture modifiable, time-varying aspects of mental functioning leading up to involvement in an act of violence. These hypothesized domains are: (i) construal of intent and cause; (ii) normative reference points; and (iii) emotion recognition and regulation. We suggest that risk state for violence can be studied in a parsimonious and direct manner through systematic research on coded speech samples. The coding method for such an assessment procedure would be almost identical to existing structured clinical judgment instruments with the difference that variables be defined from a first-person point of view. Some implications of this approach for the tertiary prevention of violence in high-risk individuals are described.

Understanding the school outcomes of juvenile offenders: an exploration of neighborhood influences and motivational resources.

As a group, delinquent youth complete less education and show poor academic outcomes compared to their non-delinquent peers. To better understand pathways to school success, this study integrated individual- and neighborhood-level data to examine academic functioning among 833 White, Black, and Hispanic male juvenile offenders (age 14-17) living in two urban communities. A multilevel path analysis confirmed that youth in relatively more affluent communities report greater access to opportunities in the areas of education and employment, and that these opportunities are associated with higher expectations to succeed and better grades. Findings highlight the importance of taking an ecological approach for understanding processes that shape school effort and achievement. Implications are discussed in the context of promoting academic success among juvenile offenders, specifically, and for understanding pathways to healthy adjustment, more generally.

Trajectories of desistance and continuity in antisocial behavior following court adjudication among serious adolescent offenders.

Because many serious adolescent offenders reduce their antisocial behavior after court involvement, understanding the patterns and mechanisms of the process of desistance from criminal activity is essential for developing effective interventions and legal policy. This study examined patterns of self-reported antisocial behavior over a 3-year period after court involvement in a sample of 1,119 serious male adolescent offenders. Using growth mixture models, and incorporating time at risk for offending in the community, we identified five trajectory groups, including a "persister" group (8.7% of the sample) and a "desister" group (14.6% of the sample). Case characteristics (age, ethnicity, antisocial history, deviant peers, a criminal father, substance use, psychosocial maturity) differentiated the five trajectory groups well, but did not effectively differentiate the persisting from desisting group. We show that even the most serious adolescent offenders report relatively low levels of antisocial activity after court involvement, but that distinguishing effectively between high-frequency offenders who desist and those who persist requires further consideration of potentially important dynamic factors related to this process.

Predicting outcomes for youth transferred to adult court.

Extant research regarding juvenile transfer has focused primarily on the negative effects of current policies, with little consistent and rigorous work on the variation among the adolescents transferred to adult court and their later adjustment in the community. Using a sample of 193 transferred youth from Arizona, we consider how certain individual characteristics are related to four post-release outcomes (antisocial activity, re-arrest, re-institutionalization, and gainful activity). We find considerable variability in outcomes, with adjustment significantly and consistently related to certain legal and risk-need factors. These results indicate that some transferred youth may experience negative outcomes, and that refinements to transfer policy may benefit from consideration of these factors in determining which serious adolescent offenders are most appropriate for transfer.

Differential effects of adult court transfer on juvenile offender recidivism.

Prior research indicates that adolescent offenders transferred to adult court are more likely to recidivate than those retained in the juvenile system. The studies supporting this conclusion, however, are limited in addressing the issue of heterogeneity among transferred adolescents. This study estimates the effect of transfer on later crime using a sample of 654 serious juvenile offenders, 29% of whom were transferred. We use propensity score matching to reduce potential selection bias, and we partition the sample on legal characteristics to examine subgroup effects. We find an overall null effect of transfer on re-arrest, but evidence of differential effects of transfer for adolescents with different offending histories. These results suggest that evaluating the effects of transfer for all transferred adolescents together may lead to misguided policy conclusions.

A Comparison of the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory (YPI)-Triarchic Scales and the YPI in a Sample of Justice-Involved Youth.

The Triarchic model (Patrick, Fowles, & Krueger, 2009) posits that psychopathy consists of three elements: Boldness, Meanness, and Disinhibition. Drislane et al. (2015) recently derived scales from the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory (YPI; Andershed, Kerr, Stattin, & Levander, 2002) to assess these traits. The initial validation efforts appeared promising, but researchers have yet to evaluate these scales among justice-involved youth. The current study examines the validity of the YPI-Triarchic scales in an archival sample of 928 male adolescent offenders and tests whether the new scales provide information incremental to the original YPI. The YPI-Triarchic scales were strongly correlated with original YPI scales (rs = .56-.96), and some associations were contrary to predictions and previous findings about the Triarchic model (e.g., YPI-Boldness was not inversely related to symptomatology). Thus, caution is warranted when attempting to study the Triarchic model with the YPI-Triarchic scales.

ESTIMATING A DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LENGTH OF STAY AND FUTURE RECIDIVISM IN SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS.

The effect of sanctions on subsequent criminal activity is of central theoretical importance in criminology. A key question for juvenile justice policy is the degree to which serious juvenile offenders respond to sanctions and/or treatment administered by the juvenile court. The policy question germane to this debate is finding the level of confinement within the juvenile justice system that maximizes the public safety and therapeutic benefits of institutional confinement. Unfortunately, research on this issue has been limited with regard to serious juvenile offenders. We use longitudinal data from a large sample of serious juvenile offenders from two large cities to 1) estimate a causal treatment effect of institutional placement, as opposed to probation, on future rate of rearrest and 2) investigate the existence of a marginal effect (i.e., benefit) for longer length of stay once the institutional placement decision had been made. We accomplish the latter by determining a dose-response relationship between the length of stay and future rates of rearrest and self-reported offending. The results suggest that an overall null effect of placement exists on future rates of rearrest or self-reported offending for serious juvenile offenders. We also find that, for the group placed out of the community, it is apparent that little or no marginal benefit exists for longer lengths of stay. Theoretical, empirical, and policy issues are outlined.

The Classification of Violence Risk.

(Reprinted with permission from Behav. Sci. Law 24: 721-730, 2006).