Short-Term Out-of-Pocket and Total Costs of Care After Ablation, Resection, or Transplant for Early-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A National SEER-Medicare Cost Comparison.

BACKGROUND. Differences in survival and morbidity among treatment options (ablation, surgical resection, and transplant) for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been well studied. Additional understanding of the costs of such care would help to identify drivers of high costs and potential barriers to care delivery. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this article was to quantify total and patient out-of-pocket costs for ablation, surgical resection, and transplant in the management of early-stage HCC and to identify factors predictive of these costs. METHODS. This retrospective U.S. population-based study used the SEER-Medicare linked dataset to identify a sample of 1067 Medicare beneficiaries (mean age, 73 years; 674 men, 393 women) diagnosed with early-stage HCC (size ≤ 5 cm) treated with ablation (n = 623), resection (n = 201), or transplant (n = 243) between January 2009 and December 2016. Total costs and patient out-of-pocket costs for the index procedure as well as for any care within 30 and 90 days after the procedure were identified and stratified by treatment modality. Additional comparisons were performed among propensity score-matched subgroups of patients treated by ablation or resection (each n = 172). Multivariable linear regression models were used to identify factors predictive of total costs and out-of-pocket costs for index procedures as well as for 30- and 90-day post-procedure periods. RESULTS. For ablation, resection, and transplant, median index-procedure total cost was US$6689, US$25,614, and US$66,034; index-procedure out-of-pocket cost was US$1235, US$1650, and US$1317; 30-day total cost was US$9456, US$29,754, and US$69,856; 30-day out-of-pocket cost was US$1646, US$2208, and US$3198; 90-day total cost was US$14,572, US$34,984, and US$88,103; and 90-day out-of-pocket cost was US$2138, US$2462, and US$3876, respectively (all p < .001). In propensity score-matched subgroups, ablation and resection had median index-procedure, 30-day, and 90-day total costs of US$6690 and US$25,716, US$9995 and US$30,365, and US$15,851 and US$34,455, respectively. In multivariable analysis adjusting for socioeconomic factors, comorbidities, and liver-disease prognostic indicators, surgical treatment (resection or transplant) was predictive of significantly greater costs compared with ablation at all time points. CONCLUSION. Total and out-of-pocket costs for index procedures as well as for 30-day and 90-day postprocedure periods were lowest for ablation, followed by resection and then transplant. CLINICAL IMPACT. This comprehensive cost analysis could help inform future cost-effectiveness analyses.

Prioritizing Quality Measures in Acute Stroke Care : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association and American Stroke Association (AHA/ASA) endorsed 15 process measures for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) to improve the quality of care. Identifying the highest-value measures could reduce the administrative burden of quality measure adoption while retaining much of the value of quality improvement. OBJECTIVE: To prioritize AHA/ASA-endorsed quality measures for AIS on the basis of health impact and cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: Individual-based stroke simulation model. DATA SOURCES: Published literature. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. patients with incident AIS. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care sector. INTERVENTION: Current versus complete (100%) implementation at the population level of quality measures endorsed by the AHA/ASA with sufficient clinical evidence (10 of 15). OUTCOME MEASURES: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and incremental net health benefits. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Discounted life-years gained from complete implementation would range from 472 (tobacco use counseling) to 34 688 (early carotid imaging) for an annual AIS patient cohort. All AIS quality measures were cost-saving or highly cost-effective by AHA standards (<$50 000 per QALY for high-value care). Early carotid imaging and intravenous tissue plasminogen activator contributed the largest fraction of the total potential value of quality improvement (measured as incremental net health benefit), accounting for 72% of the total value. The top 5 quality measures accounted for 92% of the total potential value. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A web-based user interface allows for context-specific sensitivity and scenario analyses. LIMITATION: Correlations between quality measures were not incorporated. CONCLUSION: Substantial variation exists in the potential net benefit of quality improvement across AIS quality measures. Benefits were highly concentrated among 5 of 10 measures assessed. Our results can help providers and payers set priorities for quality improvement efforts and value-based payments in AIS care. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke.

Beyond Survival: Adverse Events and Care Delivery Outcomes after Early Liver Cancer Treatment in a Nationally Representative Cohort.

PURPOSE: To compare secondary outcomes after ablation (AB), surgical resection (SR), and liver transplant (LT) for small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), including resource utilization and adverse event (AE) rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER)-Medicare, HCCs <5 cm that were treated with AB, SR, or LT in 2009-2016 (n = 1,067) were identified using Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System codes through Medicare claims. Index procedure length of stay, need for intensive care unit (ICU) level care, readmission rates, and AE rates at 30 and 90 days were compared using chi-square tests or Fisher exact tests. Examined AEs included hemorrhage, abscess formation, biliary injury, pneumonia, sepsis, liver disease-related AEs, liver failure, and anesthesia-related AEs, identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth/10th Revision, codes. RESULTS: The median length of stay for initial treatment was 1 day, 6 days, and 7 days for AB, SR, and LT, respectively (P < .001). During initial hospital stay, 5.0%, 40.8%, and 63.4% of AB, SR, and LT cohorts, respectively, received ICU-level care (P < .001). By 30 and 90 days, there were significant differences among the AB, SR, and LT cohorts in the rate of postprocedural hemorrhage, abscess formation, biliary injury, pneumonia, sepsis, liver disease-related AEs, and anesthesia-related AEs (P < .05). By 90 days, the readmission rates after AB, SR, and LT were 18.6%, 28.2%, and 40.6% (P < .001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: AB results in significantly less healthcare utilization during the initial 90 days after procedure compared with that after SR and LT due to shorter length of stay, lower intensity care, fewer readmissions, and fewer AEs.

Baseline haemoglobin A1c and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization among patients with diabetes in the INSIGHT Clinical Research Network.

AIMS: To examine the association between baseline glucose control and risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and in-hospital death among patients with diabetes. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of adult patients in the INSIGHT Clinical Research Network with a diabetes diagnosis and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) measurement in the year prior to an index date of March 15, 2020. Patients were divided into four exposure groups based on their most recent HbA1c measurement (in mmol/mol): 39-46 (5.7%-6.4%), 48-57 (6.5%-7.4%), 58-85 (7.5%-9.9%), and ≥86 (10%). Time to COVID-19 hospitalization was compared in the four groups in a propensity score-weighted Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for potential confounders. Patients were followed until June 15, 2020. In-hospital death was examined as a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Of 168,803 patients who met inclusion criteria; 50,016 patients had baseline HbA1c 39-46 (5.7%-6.4%); 54,729 had HbA1c 48-57 (6.5-7.4%); 47,640 had HbA1c 58-85 (7.5^%-9.9%) and 16,418 had HbA1c ≥86 (10%). Compared with patients with HbA1c 48-57 (6.5%-7.4%), the risk of hospitalization was incrementally greater for those with HbA1c 58-85 (7.5%-9.9%) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.34) and HbA1c ≥86 (10%) (aHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.19-1.64). The risk of COVID-19 in-hospital death was increased only in patients with HbA1c 58-85 (7.5%-9.9%) (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.06, 1.61). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes patients with high baseline HbA1c had a greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalization, although association between HbA1c and in-hospital death was less consistent. Preventive efforts for COVID-19 should be focused on diabetes patients with poor glucose control.

Safety and effectiveness of metformin in patients with reduced renal function: A systematic review.

AIM: To examine clinical and safety outcomes associated with metformin use in patients with impaired renal function. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase databases from inception to August 2020, supplementing our search with a review of investigator files and reference lists of included studies. Any study reporting original data on metformin and patient-centred outcomes in patients with impaired renal function, defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , was included. Post hoc meta-analysis was performed for the outcomes of mortality, cardiovascular events and acidosis. RESULTS: Nine small prospective studies enrolling patients with significantly impaired renal function identified only one case of clinically apparent lactic acidosis. Among 13 larger retrospective studies, seven examined the risk of mortality across patient subgroups; meta-analysis showed reductions in overall mortality at an eGFR of 45 mL/min/1.73m2 or higher but not at an eGFR of less than 45 mL/min/1.73m2 . Eight retrospective studies evaluated acidosis as an outcome; meta-analysis showed no increase in risk of acidosis except at an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min/1.73m2 , in which group the HR was 1.97 (95% CI 1.03-3.77). CONCLUSIONS: The literature shows metformin to be associated with reduced mortality and no increased risk of acidosis at an eGFR of 45 mL/min/1.73m2 or higher. Metformin appears to be associated with fewer benefits and possible increases in the risk of acidosis at an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min/1.73m2 . Consistent with US Food and Drug Administration guidelines, metformin should not be used at an eGFR less than 30 mL/min/1.73m2 , and further research on its risk-benefit profile at eGFR values approaching 30 mL/min/1.73m2 is warranted.

Do Surgeon Expectations Predict Clinically Important Improvements in WOMAC Scores After THA and TKA?

BACKGROUND: Failure of THA or TKA to meet a patient's expectations may result in patient disappointment and litigation. However, there is little evidence to suggest that surgeons can consistently anticipate which patients will benefit from those interventions. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: To determine the ability of surgeons to identify, in advance of surgery, patients who will benefit from THA or TKA and those who will not, where 'benefit' is defined as a clinically important improvement in a validated patient-reported outcomes score. METHODS: In this prospective study, eight high-volume orthopaedic surgeons completed validated THA and TKA expectations questionnaires (score 0-100, 100 being the highest expectation) as part of preoperative assessment of all their patients scheduled for a THA or TKA and enrolled in the Hospital for Special Surgery institutional registry. Enrolled patients completed the WOMAC preoperatively and at 2 years. Successful outcomes were defined as achieving the minimum clinically important difference (MCID) in WOMAC pain and function subscales. Sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the ability of surgeons' expectation scores to identify patients likely to achieve the MCID on the WOMAC scale. Analyses were run separately for patients having THA and TKA. We enrolled 259 patients undergoing THA and 247 undergoing TKA, of whom 77% (n = 200) and 77% (n = 191) completed followup surveys 2 years after their procedures, respectively. RESULTS: Surgeons' expectation scores effectively anticipated patients who would improve after THA, but they were no better than chance in identifying patients who would achieve the MCID on the WOMAC score 2 years after TKA. For patients having THA, the areas under the ROC curve were 0.67 (95% CI, 0.53-0.82; p = 0.02) and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.63-0.85; p < 0.01) for WOMAC function and pain outcomes, respectively, indicating good accuracy. Sensitivity and specificity were maximized on WOMAC pain and function scores (sensitivity = 0.69, specificity = 0.72, both for pain and function) at an expectations score of 83 or greater of 100. Surgeons' expectations were more accurate for patients who were men, who had a BMI less than 30 kg/m2, who had more than one comorbidity, and who were older than 65 years. For patients having TKA, surgeons' expectation scores were not better than chance for identifying those who would experience a clinically important improvement on the WOMAC scale (area under ROC curve: Function = 0.51, [95% CI, 0.42-0.61], p = 0.78; Pain = 0.51, [95% CI, 0.40-0.61], p = 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Most patients having THA and TKA achieved the MCID improvement after surgery. However, the inability of surgeons' expectation scores to discriminate accurately between patients who benefit and those who do not among patients scheduled for THA who are young, with no comorbidities, and with elevated BMIs, and among all patients scheduled for TKA, calls for surgeons to spend more time with these patients to fully understand and address their needs and expectations. Using standardized assessment tools to compare surgeons' expectations and those of their patients may help focus the surgeon-patient discussion further, and address patients' expectations more effectively. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, therapeutic study.

Facilitating informed decisions about breast cancer screening: development and evaluation of a web-based decision aid for women in their 40s.

BACKGROUND: Expert groups and national guidelines recommend individualized decision making about screening mammography for women in their 40s at low-to-average risk of breast cancer. We created Breast Screening Decisions (BSD), a personalized, web-based decision aid, to help women decide when to start and how often to have routine screening mammograms. We evaluated BSD in a large, prospective pilot trial of women and their clinicians. METHODS: Women ages 40-49 were invited to use BSD before a scheduled preventive care visit. One month post-visit, users were asked about decisional conflict, knowledge, perceptions and worry about breast cancer and screening. They were also asked whether they had a screening mammogram since their visit, scheduled an appointment for a screening mammogram, or if they were planning to schedule an appointment within the next six months. Women who responded "no" to each of these successive questions were considered to have no plan for a screening mammogram within the next 6 months, unless they explicitly stated that they were unsure about screening mammography. Clinicians were surveyed regarding mammography discussions and perceived patient knowledge and anxiety. RESULTS: Of 1,100 women invited to use BSD, 253 accessed the website, and 168 were eligible to participate in the pilot study. One-fifth had a family history of breast cancer, and at least 76% had any prior mammogram. At follow-up, 88% of BSD users reported discussing mammography at their visit, and 77% said they had a screening mammogram since the visit or that they made or were planning to make a screening mammogram appointment. The average decisional conflict score was 22.5, within the threshold for implementing decisions. Decisional conflict scores were lowest in women who said that they had or planned to have a mammogram (mean 21.4, 95% CI 18.3-24.6), higher in those who did not (mean 24.8, 95% CI 19.2-30.5), and highest in those who were unsure (mean 31.5, 95% CI 13.9-49.1). Most BSD users expressed accurate perceptions of their breast cancer risk and the benefits and limitations of screening. CONCLUSIONS: A web-based decision aid may support informed, individualized decisions about screening mammography and facilitate discussions about screening between women in their 40s and their clinicians.

Proposals to Conduct Randomized Controlled Trials Without Informed Consent: a Narrative Review.

BACKGROUND: Individual informed consent from all participants is required for most randomized clinical trials (RCTs). However, some exceptions-for example, emergency research-are widely accepted. METHODS: The literature on various approaches to randomization without consent (RWOC) has never been systematically reviewed. Our goal was to provide a survey and narrative synthesis of published proposals for RWOC. We focused on proposals to randomize at least some participants in a study without first obtaining consent to randomization. This definition included studies that omitted informed consent entirely, omitted informed consent for selected patients (e.g., the control group), obtained informed consent to research but not to randomization, or only obtained informed consent to randomization after random assignment had already occurred. It omitted oral and staged consent processes that still obtain consent to randomization from all participants before randomization occurs. RESULTS: We identified ten different proposals for RWOC: two variants of cluster randomization, two variants of the Zelen design, consent to postponed information, two-stage randomized consent, cohort multiple RCT, emergency research, prompted optional randomization trials, and low-risk pragmatic RCTs without consent. CONCLUSION: Of all designs discussed here, only cluster randomized designs and emergency research are routinely used, with the justification that informed consent is infeasible in those settings. Other designs have raised concerns that they do not appropriately respect patient autonomy. Recent proposals have emphasized the importance for RWOC of demonstrating such respect through systematic patient engagement, transparency, and accountability, potentially in the context of learning health care systems.

Plaque echolucency and stroke risk in asymptomatic carotid stenosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Ultrasonographic plaque echolucency has been studied as a stroke risk marker in carotid atherosclerotic disease. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between ultrasound-determined carotid plaque echolucency and future ipsilateral stroke risk. METHODS: We searched the medical literature for studies evaluating the association between carotid plaque echolucency and future stroke in asymptomatic patients. We included prospective observational studies with stroke outcome ascertainment after baseline carotid plaque echolucency assessment. We performed a meta-analysis and assessed study heterogeneity and publication bias. We also performed subgroup analyses limited to patients with stenosis ≥50%, studies in which plaque echolucency was determined via subjective visual interpretation, studies with a relatively lower risk of bias, and studies published after the year 2000. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 7 studies on 7557 subjects with a mean follow-up of 37.2 months. We found a significant positive relationship between predominantly echolucent (compared with predominantly echogenic) plaques and the risk of future ipsilateral stroke across all stenosis severities (0% to 99%; relative risk, 2.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.58-3.39; P<0.001) and in subjects with ≥50% stenosis (relative risk, 2.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-4.63; P=0.001). A statistically significant increased relative risk for future stroke was preserved in all additional subgroup analyses. No statistically significant heterogeneity or publication bias was present in any of the meta-analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of ultrasound-determined carotid plaque echolucency provides predictive information in asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis beyond luminal stenosis. However, the magnitude of the increased risk is not sufficient on its own to iden tify patients likely to benefit from surgical revascularization.

Cost-Effectiveness of Carotid Plaque MR Imaging as a Stroke Risk Stratification Tool in Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a decision-making rule based on the magnetic resonance (MR) imaging assessment of intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH) in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two competing stroke prevention strategies were compared: (a) an intensive medical therapy-based management strategy versus (b) an imaging-based strategy in which the subset of patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis with IPH on MR images would undergo immediate carotid endarterectomy in addition to ongoing intensive medical therapy. Patients in the medical therapy-only group could undergo carotid endarterectomy only with substantial carotid artery stenosis disease progression. Lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were modeled for patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis with 70%-89% and 50%-69% carotid artery stenosis at presentation. Risks of stroke and complications from carotid endarterectomy, costs, and quality of life values were estimated from published sources. RESULTS: The medical therapy-based strategy had a lower life expectancy (12.65 years vs 12.95 years), lower lifetime QALYs (9.96 years vs 10.05 years), and lower lifetime costs ($13 699 vs $15 297) when compared with the MR imaging IPH-based strategy. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the MR imaging IPH strategy compared with the medical therapy-based strategy was $16 000 per QALY by using a base-case 70-year-old patient. When using starting patient ages of 60 and 80 years, the ICERs for the MR imaging IPH strategy were $3100 per QALY and $73 000 per QALY, respectively. The ICERs for the MR imaging IPH strategy were slightly higher at all ages for 50%-69% stenosis but remained below a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY for starting ages of 60 and 70 years. CONCLUSION: MR imaging IPH can be used as a cost-effective tool to identify patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis most likely to benefit from carotid endarterectomy.

Implementing unique device identification in electronic health record systems: organizational, workflow, and technological challenges.

BACKGROUND: The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed creating a unique device identification (UDI) system for medical devices to facilitate postmarket surveillance, quality improvement, and other applications. Although a small number of health care institutions have implemented initiatives comparable with the proposed UDI system by capturing data in electronic health record (EHR) systems, it is unknown whether institutions with fewer resources will be able to similarly implement UDI. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: This paper calls attention to organizational, workflow, and technological challenges in UDI system implementation by drawing from the literature on EHR and clinical research systems implementation. FINDINGS: Organizational challenges for UDI system implementation include coordinating multiple stakeholders to define UDI attributes and characteristics for use in EHRs, guiding organizational change within individual institutions for integrating UDI with EHRs, and guiding organizational change for reusing UDI data captured in EHRs. Workflow challenges include capturing UDI data in EHRs using keyboard entry and barcode scanning. Technological challenges involve interfacing UDI data between EHRs and surgical information systems, transforming UDI and related patient data from EHRs for research, and applying data standards to UDI within and beyond EHRs. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: We provide recommendations for regulations, organizational sharing, and professional society engagement to raise awareness of and overcome UDI system implementation challenges. Implementation of the UDI system will require integration of people, process, and technology to achieve benefits envisioned by FDA, including improved postmarket device surveillance and quality of care.

Cost-effectiveness of blood donor screening for Babesia microti in endemic regions of the United States.

BACKGROUND: Babesia microti is the leading reported cause of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion-transmitted infection in the United States. Donor screening assays are in development. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A decision analytic model estimated the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies for preventing transfusion-transmitted babesiosis (TTB) in a hypothetical cohort of transfusion recipients in Babesia-endemic areas of the United States. Strategies included: 1) no screening; 2) Uniform Donor Health History Questionnaire (UDHQ), "status quo"; 3) recipient risk targeting using donor antibody and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening; 4) universal endemic donor antibody screening; and 5) universal endemic donor antibody and PCR screening. Outcome measures were TTB cases averted, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; $/QALY). We assumed a societal willingness to pay of $1 million/QALY based on screening for other transfusion-transmitted infections. RESULTS: Compared to no screening, the UDHQ avoids 0.02 TTB cases per 100,000 RBC transfusions at an ICER of $160,000/QALY whereas recipient risk-targeted strategy using antibody/PCR avoids 1.62 TTB cases per 100,000 RBC transfusions at an ICER of $713,000/QALY compared to the UDHQ. Universal endemic antibody screening avoids 3.39 cases at an ICER of $760,000/QALY compared to the recipient risk-targeted strategy. Universal endemic antibody/PCR screening avoids 3.60 cases and has an ICER of $8.8 million/QALY compared to universal endemic antibody screening. Results are sensitive to blood donor Babesia prevalence, TTB transmission probability, screening test costs, risk and severity of TTB complications, and impact of babesiosis diagnosis on donor quality of life. CONCLUSION: Antibody screening for Babesia in endemic regions is appropriate from an economic perspective based on the societal willingness to pay for preventing infectious threats to blood safety.

Prevention of type II diabetes mellitus in Qatar: Who is at risk?

BACKGROUND: Type II diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the leading chronic diseases in Qatar as well as worldwide. However, the risk factors for DM in Qatar and their prevalence are not well understood. We conducted a case-control study with the specific aim of estimating, based on data from outpatients with DM in Qatar (cases) and outpatient/inpatient controls, the association between demographic/lifestyle factors and DM. METHODS: A total of 459 patients with DM from Hamad General Hospital (HGH) outpatient adult diabetes clinics, and 342 control patients from various outpatient clinics and inpatient departments within Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC) (years 2006-2008), were recruited. The association between risk factors and DM was evaluated using bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses. In addition to odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), we estimated the population attributable risk fractions for the DM demographic/lifestyle risk factors. RESULTS: Qatari nationality was the strongest risk factor for DM (adjusted OR = 5.5; 95% CI = 3.5-8.6; p < 0.0001), followed by higher monthly income (defined as ≥ 3000 Qatari Riyals, adjusted OR = 5.1; 95% CI = 3.0-8.7; p < 0.0001), age >65 years (adjusted OR = 3.3; 95% CI = 0.9-11.4; p = 0.06), male gender (adjusted OR = 2.9; 95% CI = 1.8-4.8; p < 0.0001), obesity (BMI ≥ 30, adjusted OR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.5-3.2; p < 0.0001), no college education (adjusted OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.6; p = 0.009), and no daily vigorous/moderate activity (adjusted OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 0.9-2.3; p = 0.12). Among Qatari nationals, obesity was found to be the main risk factor for DM (unadjusted OR = 3.0; 95% CI = 1.6-5.6; p < 0.0001), followed by no college education (unadjusted OR = 2.7; 95% CI = 1.5-5.1; p = 0.001), while consanguinity did not appear to play a major role in predicting DM (unadjusted OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 0.8-2.8; p = 0.21). Our findings further suggested that eliminating obesity and improving access to education may reduce DM cases by up to one third for the population at large (31.7% and 26.8%, respectively) and up to half (46.9% and 49.3%, respectively) for Qatari nationals. Promoting physical activity may reduce the burden of DM by up to 9.4% for the population at large and up to 17.3% for Qatari nationals. CONCLUSIONS: Demographic/lifestyle factors appear to be the main risk factors for the high DM levels observed in Qatar, with a contribution that outweighs that of genetic risk factors. While further evaluation of DM risk factors among the Qatari population (as opposed to the resident population) is important and of interest, these findings highlight the need to focus short-term DM interventions on addressing demographic/lifestyle risk factors to achieve substantial and timely declines in DM levels.

Application of a data continuity prediction algorithm to an electronic health record-based pharmacoepidemiology study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Use of algorithms to identify patients with high data-continuity in electronic health records (EHRs) may increase study validity. Practical experience with this approach remains limited. METHODS: We developed and validated four algorithms to identify patients with high data continuity in an EHR-based data source. Selected algorithms were then applied to a pharmacoepidemiologic study comparing rates of COVID-19 hospitalization in patients exposed to insulin versus noninsulin antidiabetic drugs. RESULTS: A model using a short list of five EHR-derived variables performed as well as more complex models to distinguish high- from low-data continuity patients. Higher data continuity was associated with more accurate ascertainment of key variables. In the pharmacoepidemiologic study, patients with higher data continuity had higher observed rates of the COVID-19 outcome and a large unadjusted association between insulin use and the outcome, but no association after propensity score adjustment. DISCUSSION: We found that a simple, portable algorithm to predict data continuity gave comparable performance to more complex methods. Use of the algorithm significantly impacted the results of an empirical study, with evidence of more valid results at higher levels of data continuity.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis by Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk.

Importance: Extracranial internal carotid artery stenosis (50-99% arterial narrowing) is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke. Yet, the benefits and harms of targeted screening for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) have not been assessed in population-based studies. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of one-time, targeted ACAS screening stratified by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk using the American Heart Association's Pooled Cohort Equations. Design Setting and Participants: We developed a lifetime microsimulation model of ACAS and stroke for a hypothetical cohort representative of US adults aged 50-80 years without stroke history. We used the Cardiovascular Health Study to estimate the probability and severity of ACAS based on individual characteristics (e.g., age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, and cholesterol). Stroke risks were functions of these characteristics and ACAS severity. In the model, individuals testing positive for >70% stenosis with Duplex ultrasound and a confirmatory diagnostic test undergo revascularization, which may reduce the risk of stroke but also introduces complication risks. Diagnostic performance parameters, revascularization benefits and risks, utility weights, and costs were estimated from published sources. Cost-effectiveness was assessed from the health care sector perspective using a $100,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated stroke events prevented, lifetime costs, QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) associated with ACAS screening. Costs (2023 USD) and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually. Results: We found that screening individuals with a 10-year ASCVD risk >30% was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of $89,000/QALY. This strategy would make approximately 11.9% of the population eligible for screening, averting an estimated 24,084 strokes. Results were sensitive to variations in the efficacy and complication risk of revascularization. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, screening those in lower ASCVD risk groups (0-20%) only had a 0.6% chance of being cost-effective. Conclusion and Relevance: A one-time screening may only be cost-effective for adults at a relatively high ASCVD risk. Our findings provide a framework that can be adapted as future clinical trial data continue to improve our understanding of the role of revascularization and intensive medical therapy in contemporary stroke prevention secondary to carotid disease.

Predictors for Early Liver Cancer Survival After Ablation and Surgical Resection: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare Study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify independent predictors of all-cause and cancer-specific mortality after ablation or surgical resection (SR) for small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), after adjusting for key confounders. METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare, HCCs less than 5 cm treated with ablation or SR in 2009 to 2016 (n = 956) were identified. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression models for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality were performed including demographics, clinical factors (tumor size, medical comorbidities, and liver disease factors), social determinants of health, and treatment characteristics. We also determined the most influential predictors of survival using a random forest analysis. RESULTS: Larger tumor size (3-5 cm) is predictive of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, P = .002) and cancer-specific mortality (HR 1.59, P < .001). Furthermore, chronic kidney disease is predictive of all-cause mortality (HR 1.43, P = .013), though it is not predictive of cancer-specific death. Multiple liver disease factors are predictive of all-cause and cancer-specific mortality including portal hypertension and esophageal varices (HRs > 1, P < .05). Though Asian race is protective in univariate models, in fully adjusted, multivariable models, Asian race is not a significant protective factor. Likewise, other social determinants of health are not significantly predictive of all-cause or cancer-specific mortality. Finally, treatment with SR, in later procedure years or at high-volume centers, is protective for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. In machine learning models, year procedure was performed, ascites, portal hypertension, and treatment choice were the most influential factors. DISCUSSION: Treatment characteristics, liver disease factors, and tumor size are more important predictors of all-cause and cancer-specific death than social determinants of health for small HCCs.

Carotid plaque MRI and stroke risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: MRI characterization of carotid plaque has been studied recently as a potential tool to predict stroke caused by carotid atherosclerosis. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association of MRI-determined intraplaque hemorrhage, lipid-rich necrotic core, and thinning/rupture of the fibrous cap with subsequent ischemic events. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive literature search evaluating the association of carotid plaque composition on MRI with ischemic outcomes. We included cohort studies examining intraplaque hemorrhage, lipid-rich necrotic core, or thinning/rupture of the fibrous cap with mean follow-up of ≥1 month and an outcome measure of ipsilateral stroke or transient ischemic attack. A meta-analysis using a random-effects model with assessment of study heterogeneity and publication bias was performed. RESULTS: Of the 3436 articles screened, 9 studies with a total of 779 subjects met eligibility for systematic review. The hazard ratios for intraplaque hemorrhage, lipid-rich necrotic core, and thinning/rupture of the fibrous cap as predictors of subsequent stroke/transient ischemic attack were 4.59 (95% confidence interval, 2.91-7.24), 3.00 (95% confidence interval, 1.51-5.95), and 5.93 (95% confidence interval, 2.65-13.20), respectively. No statistically significant heterogeneity or publication bias was present in the 3 main meta-analyses performed. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of intraplaque hemorrhage, lipid-rich necrotic core, and thinning/rupture of the fibrous cap on MRI of carotid plaque is associated with increased risk of future stroke or transient ischemic attack in patients with carotid atherosclerotic disease. Dedicated MRI of plaque composition offers stroke risk information beyond measurement of luminal stenosis in carotid atherosclerotic disease.