Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Population-level interventions for the primary prevention of dementia: a complex evidence review.

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a leading, global public health challenge. Recent evidence supporting a decrease in age-specific incidence of dementia in high-income countries (HICs) suggests that risk reduction is possible through improved life-course public health. Despite this, efforts to date have been heavily focused on individual-level approaches, which are unlikely to significantly reduce dementia prevalence or inequalities in dementia. In order to inform policy, we identified the population-level interventions for dementia risk reduction with the strongest evidence base. METHODS: We did this complex, multistage, evidence review to summarise the empirical, interventional evidence for population-level interventions to reduce or control each of the 12 modifiable life-course risk factors for dementia identified by the Lancet commission. We conducted a series of structured searches of peer-reviewed and grey literature databases (eg, Medline, Trip database, Cochrane library, Campbell Collaboration, the WHO, and Google Scholar), in January, March, and June, 2023. Search terms related to risk factors, prevention, and population-level interventions, without language restrictions. We extracted evidence of effectiveness and key contextual information to aid consideration and implementation of interventions by policymakers. We performed a narrative synthesis and evidence grading, and we derived a population-level dementia risk reduction intervention framework, structured by intervention type. This study is registered with PROSPERO, ID:CRD42023396193. FINDINGS: We identified clear and consistent evidence for the effectiveness of 26 population-level interventions to reduce the prevalence of nine of the risk factors, of which 23 have been empirically evaluated in HICs, and 16 in low-income and middle-income countries. We identified interventions that acted through fiscal levers (n=5; eg, removing primary school fees), marketing or advertising levers (n=5; eg, plain packaging of tobacco products), availability levers (n=8; eg, cleaner fuel replacement programmes for cooking stoves), and legislative levers (n=8; eg, mandated provision of hearing protective equipment at noisy workplaces). We were not able to recommend any interventions for diabetes (other than indirectly through action on obesity and physical inactivity), depression, or social isolation. INTERPRETATION: This complex evidence review provides policymakers and public health professionals with an evidence-based framework to help develop and implement population-level approaches for dementia risk reduction that could significantly reduce the population's risk of dementia and reduce health inequalities. FUNDING: None.

How many future dementia cases would be missed by a high-risk screening program? A retrospective cohort study in a population-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Risk prediction models aim to identify those at high risk to receive targeted interventions. We aimed to identify the proportion of future dementia cases that would be missed by a high-risk screening program. METHODS: We identified validated dementia risk prediction models from systematic reviews. We applied these to European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk, a large population-based cohort of 30,387 individuals with 29 years of linked healthcare data. RESULTS: A maximum of 16.0% (14.7,17.2) and 31.9% (30.2,33.5) of cases arose from the highest risk decile and quintiles, respectively. For every 1000 people considered to be at high risk, a maximum of 235 (215, 255) developed dementia. DISCUSSION: Seven in every 10 cases of dementia arose from people at normal risk, and eight in every 10 people at high risk did not develop dementia. Individual-level prevention approaches targeted at high-risk groups are unlikely to produce large reductions in disease incidence at the population level. HIGHLIGHTS: Dementia, a significant public health challenge, is not an inevitability of aging; risk reduction is possible. Several dementia risk prediction models have been validated in the general population, and these aim to identify people at high risk of the disease who can then be targeted with primary prevention interventions. An alternative prevention approach is to focus on interventions that reduce risk across the population, irrespective of risk status. In our study, seven out of every ten people who developed dementia during 29 year follow-up were classed as 'normal-risk' (rather than 'high risk') at baseline. Eight out of every ten people who were at high risk at baseline did not go on to develop dementia. Even if effective, dementia risk reduction efforts based upon targeted high-risk approaches are unlikely to reduce incidence of disease at the population level.

Associations between trajectories of obesity prevalence in English primary school children and the UK soft drinks industry levy: An interrupted time series analysis of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are the primary source of dietary added sugars in children, with high consumption commonly observed in more deprived areas where obesity prevalence is also highest. Associations between SSB consumption and obesity in children have been widely reported. In March 2016, a two-tier soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) on drinks manufacturers to encourage reformulation of SSBs in the United Kingdom was announced and then implemented in April 2018. We examined trajectories in the prevalence of obesity at ages 4 to 5 years and 10 to 11 years, 19 months after the implementation of SDIL, overall and by sex and deprivation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were from the National Child Measurement Programme and included annual repeat cross-sectional measurement of over 1 million children in reception (4 to 5 years old) and year 6 (10 to 11 years old) in state-maintained English primary schools. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly obesity prevalence data from September 2013 to November 2019 was used to estimate absolute and relative changes in obesity prevalence compared to a counterfactual (adjusted for temporal variations in obesity prevalence) estimated from the trend prior to SDIL announcement. Differences between observed and counterfactual estimates were examined in November 2019 by age (reception or year 6) and additionally by sex and deprivation quintile. In year 6 girls, there was an overall absolute reduction in obesity prevalence (defined as >95th centile on the UK90 growth charts) of 1.6 percentage points (PPs) (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 2.1), with greatest reductions in the two most deprived quintiles (e.g., there was an absolute reduction of 2.4 PP (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) in prevalence of obesity in the most deprived quintile). In year 6 boys, there was no change in obesity prevalence, except in the least deprived quintile where there was a 1.6-PP (95% CI: 0.7, 2.5) absolute increase. In reception children, relative to the counterfactual, there were no overall changes in obesity prevalence in boys (0.5 PP (95% CI: 1.0, -0.1)) or girls (0.2 PP (95% CI: 0.8, -0.3)). This study is limited by use of index of multiple deprivation of the school attended to assess individual socioeconomic disadvantage. ITS analyses are vulnerable to unidentified cointerventions and time-varying confounding, neither of which we can rule out. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the SDIL was associated with decreased prevalence of obesity in year 6 girls, with the greatest differences in those living in the most deprived areas. Additional strategies beyond SSB taxation will be needed to reduce obesity prevalence overall, and particularly in older boys and younger children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN18042742.

Correction: Anticipatory changes in British household purchases of soft drinks associated with the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003269.].

COVID-19 surge testing in a unitary local authority in England: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In May 2021, due to rising case rates and the detection of a new variant of concern, increased asymptomatic 'surge testing' for COVID-19 was implemented in Bedford Borough. METHODS: Over 3 weeks, surge testing in higher incidence areas utilized: (i) mobile testing units, (ii) home test kit collection and drop-off and (iii) Door-to-door outreach. Testing was voluntary and supported by a communication campaign. Test results and data provided by participants were analyzed. RESULTS: During surge testing, 16% (n = 5018) of the target population were tested, resulting in 125 positive results (2.5%). Females, those identifying as white, and those living in the most deprived quintile (Q1) were over-represented in testing. Test positivity was relatively higher for ages 0-19 (4.0%), for minority ethnic groups (2.8%), and those not listing an ethnic group (15.1%). Test positivity was lowest for the door-to-door outreach approach (0.9%), despite collecting the most samples (2225). CONCLUSIONS: Surge testing in Bedford reached a large number of people, was particularly successful at reaching people living in the most deprived areas, and identified cases that might have otherwise been missed. However, the testing did not reach the majority of the population, and began after new infections had begun to fall.

Reactions of industry and associated organisations to the announcement of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy: longitudinal thematic analysis of UK media articles, 2016-18.

BACKGROUND: The UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016, became law in April 2017, and was implemented in April 2018. Empirical analyses of commercial responses have not been undertaken to establish the scale, direction or nuance of industry media messaging around fiscal policies. We aimed to develop a detailed understanding of industry reactions to the SDIL in publicly available media, including whether and how these changed from announcement to implementation. METHODS: We searched Factiva to identify articles related to sugar, soft-drinks, and the SDIL, between 16th March 2016-5th April 2018. Articles included were UK publications written in English and reporting a quotation from an industry actor in response to the SDIL. We used a longitudinal thematic analysis of public statements by the soft-drinks industry that covered their reactions in relation to key policy milestones. RESULTS: Two hundred and ninety-eight articles were included. After the announcement in March 2016, there was strong opposition to the SDIL. After the public consultation, evolving opposition narratives were seen. After the SDIL became law, reactions reflected a shift to adapting to the SDIL. Following the publication of the final regulations, statements sought to emphasise industry opportunities and ensure the perceived profitability of the soft drinks sector. The most significant change in message (from opposition to adapting to the SDIL) occurred when the SDIL was implemented (6th April 2018). CONCLUSION: Reactions to the SDIL changed over time. Industry modified its media responses from a position of strong opposition to one that appeared to focus on adaptation and maximising perceived profitability after the SDIL became law. This shift suggests that the forces that shape industry media responses to fiscal policies do not remain constant but evolve in response to policy characteristics and the stage of the policy process to maximise beneficial framing.

Changes in household food and drink purchases following restrictions on the advertisement of high fat, salt, and sugar products across the Transport for London network: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Restricting the advertisement of products with high fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS) content has been recommended as a policy tool to improve diet and tackle obesity, but the impact on HFSS purchasing is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of HFSS advertising restrictions, implemented across the London (UK) transport network in February 2019, on HFSS purchases. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 5 million take-home food and drink purchases were recorded by 1,970 households (London [intervention], n = 977; North of England [control], n = 993) randomly selected from the Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panel. The intervention and control samples were similar in household characteristics but had small differences in main food shopper sex, socioeconomic position, and body mass index. Using a controlled interrupted time series design, we estimated average weekly household purchases of energy and nutrients from HFSS products in the post-intervention period (44 weeks) compared to a counterfactual constructed from the control and pre-intervention (36 weeks) series. Energy purchased from HFSS products was 6.7% (1,001.0 kcal, 95% CI 456.0 to 1,546.0) lower among intervention households compared to the counterfactual. Relative reductions in purchases of fat (57.9 g, 95% CI 22.1 to 93.7), saturated fat (26.4 g, 95% CI 12.4 to 40.4), and sugar (80.7 g, 95% CI 41.4 to 120.1) from HFSS products were also observed. Energy from chocolate and confectionery purchases was 19.4% (317.9 kcal, 95% CI 200.0 to 435.8) lower among intervention households than for the counterfactual, with corresponding relative reductions in fat (13.1 g, 95% CI 7.5 to 18.8), saturated fat (8.7 g, 95% CI 5.7 to 11.7), sugar (41.4 g, 95% CI 27.4 to 55.4), and salt (0.2 g, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) purchased from chocolate and confectionery. Relative reductions are in the context of secular increases in HFSS purchases in both the intervention and control areas, so the policy was associated with attenuated growth of HFSS purchases rather than absolute reduction in HFSS purchases. Study limitations include the lack of out-of-home purchases in our analyses and not being able to assess the sustainability of observed changes beyond 44 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds an association between the implementation of restrictions on outdoor HFSS advertising and relative reductions in energy, sugar, and fat purchased from HFSS products. These findings provide support for policies that restrict HFSS advertising as a tool to reduce purchases of HFSS products.

Managing intensive care admissions when there are not enough beds during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.

The surge in cases of severe COVID-19 has resulted in clinicians triaging intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in places where demand has exceeded capacity. In order to assist difficult triage decisions, clinicians require clear guidelines on how to prioritise patients. Existing guidelines show significant variability in their development, interpretation, implementation and an urgent need for a robust synthesis of published guidance. To understand how to manage which patients are admitted to ICU, and receive mechanical ventilatory support, during periods of high demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, a systematic review was performed. Databases of indexed literature (Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Global Health) and grey literature (Google.com and MedRxiv), published from 1 January until 2 April 2020, were searched. Search terms included synonyms of COVID-19, ICU, ventilation, and triage. Only formal written guidelines were included. There were no exclusion criteria based on geographical location or publication language. Quality appraisal of the guidelines was performed using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation Instrument II (AGREE II) and the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation Instrument Recommendation EXcellence (AGREE REX) appraisal tools, and key themes related to triage were extracted using narrative synthesis. Of 1902 unique records identified, nine relevant guidelines were included. Six guidelines were national or transnational level guidance (UK, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia and New Zealand, Italy, and Sri Lanka), with one state level (Kansas, USA), one international (Extracorporeal Life Support Organization) and one specific to military hospitals (Department of Defense, USA). The guidelines covered several broad themes: use of ethical frameworks, criteria for ICU admission and discharge, adaptation of criteria as demand changes, equality across health conditions and healthcare systems, decision-making processes, communication of decisions, and guideline development processes. We have synthesised the current guidelines and identified the different approaches taken globally to manage the triage of intensive care resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. There is limited consensus on how to allocate the finite resource of ICU beds and ventilators, and a lack of high-quality evidence and guidelines on resource allocation during the pandemic. We have developed a set of factors to consider when developing guidelines for managing intensive care admissions, and outlined implications for clinical leads and local implementation.

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): What Do We Know About Children? A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Few pediatric cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported and we know little about the epidemiology in children, although more is known about other coronaviruses. We aimed to understand the infection rate, clinical presentation, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in order to inform clinical and public health measures. METHODS: We undertook a rapid systematic review and narrative synthesis of all literature relating to SARS-CoV-2 in pediatric populations. The search terms also included SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. We searched 3 databases and the COVID-19 resource centers of 11 major journals and publishers. English abstracts of Chinese-language papers were included. Data were extracted and narrative syntheses conducted. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies relating to COVID-19 were included in the review. Children appear to be less affected by COVID-19 than adults by observed rate of cases in large epidemiological studies. Limited data on attack rate indicate that children are just as susceptible to infection. Data on clinical outcomes are scarce but include several reports of asymptomatic infection and a milder course of disease in young children, although radiological abnormalities are noted. Severe cases are not reported in detail and there are few data relating to transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Children appear to have a low observed case rate of COVID-19 but may have rates similar to adults of infection with SARS-CoV-2. This discrepancy may be because children are asymptomatic or too mildly infected to draw medical attention and be tested and counted in observed cases of COVID-19.

Anticipatory changes in British household purchases of soft drinks associated with the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is positively associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends that member states implement effective taxes on SSBs to reduce consumption. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) is a two-tiered tax, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g of sugar per 100 ml (higher levy tier) are taxed at £0.24 per litre, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g of sugar per 100 ml (lower levy tier) are taxed at £0.18 per litre, and drinks with <5 g sugar per 100 ml (no levy) are not taxed. Milk-based drinks, pure fruit juices, drinks sold as powder, and drinks with >1.2% alcohol by volume are exempt. We aimed to determine if the announcement of the SDIL was associated with anticipatory changes in purchases of soft drinks prior to implementation of the SDIL in April 2018. We explored differences in the volume of and amount of sugar in household purchases of drinks in each levy tier at 2 years post announcement. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used controlled interrupted time series to compare observed changes associated with the announcement of the SDIL to the counterfactual scenario of no announcement. We used data from Kantar Worldpanel, a commercial household purchasing panel with approximately 30,000 British members that includes linked nutritional data on purchases. We conducted separate analyses for drinks liable for the SDIL in the higher, lower, and no-levy tiers controlling with household purchase volumes of toiletries. At 2 years post announcement, there was no difference in volume of or sugar from purchases of higher-levy-tier drinks compared to the counterfactual of no announcement. In contrast, a reversal of the existing upward trend in volume (ml) of and amount of sugar (g) in purchases of lower-levy-tier drinks was seen. These changes led to a -96.1 ml (95% confidence interval [CI] -144.2 to -48.0) reduction in volume and -6.4 g (95% CI -9.8 to -3.1) reduction in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was a reversal of the existing downward trend in the amount of sugar in household purchases of the no-levy drinks but no change in volume purchased. At 2 years post announcement, these changes led to a 6.1 g (95% CI 3.9-8.2) increase in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was no evidence that volume of or amount of sugar in purchases of all drinks combined was different from the counterfactual. This is an observational study, and changes other than the SDIL may have been responsible for the results reported. Purchases consumed outside of the home were not accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: The announcement of the UK SDIL was associated with reductions in volume and sugar purchased in lower-levy-tier drinks before implementation. These were offset by increases in sugar purchased from no-levy drinks. These findings may reflect reformulation of drinks from the lower levy to no-levy tier with removal of some but not all sugar, alongside changes in consumer attitudes and beliefs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18042742.

The potential health impact of restricting less-healthy food and beverage advertising on UK television between 05.30 and 21.00 hours: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Restrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children's exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5-17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%-9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%-7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000-81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000-240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000-530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion-£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose-response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn.

The current and potential health benefits of the National Health Service Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme in England: A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: The National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme was introduced in 2009 in England to systematically assess all adults in midlife for cardiovascular disease risk factors. However, its current benefit and impact on health inequalities are unknown. It is also unclear whether feasible changes in how it is delivered could result in increased benefits. It is one of the first such programmes in the world. We sought to estimate the health benefits and effect on inequalities of the current NHS Health Check programme and the impact of making feasible changes to its implementation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a microsimulation model to estimate the health benefits (incident ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, and lung cancer) of the NHS Health Check programme in England. We simulated a population of adults in England aged 40-45 years and followed until age 100 years, using data from the Health Survey of England (2009-2012) and the English Longitudinal Study of Aging (1998-2012), to simulate changes in risk factors for simulated individuals over time. We used recent programme data to describe uptake of NHS Health Checks and of 4 associated interventions (statin medication, antihypertensive medication, smoking cessation, and weight management). Estimates of treatment efficacy and adherence were based on trial data. We estimated the benefits of the current NHS Health Check programme compared to a healthcare system without systematic health checks. This counterfactual scenario models the detection and treatment of risk factors that occur within 'routine' primary care. We also explored the impact of making feasible changes to implementation of the programme concerning eligibility, uptake of NHS Health Checks, and uptake of treatments offered through the programme. We estimate that the NHS Health Check programme prevents 390 (95% credible interval 290 to 500) premature deaths before 80 years of age and results in an additional 1,370 (95% credible interval 1,100 to 1,690) people being free of disease (ischaemic heart disease, stroke, dementia, and lung cancer) at age 80 years per million people aged 40-45 years at baseline. Over the life of the cohort (i.e., followed from 40-45 years to 100 years), the changes result in an additional 10,000 (95% credible interval 8,200 to 13,000) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and an additional 9,000 (6,900 to 11,300) years of life. This equates to approximately 300 fewer premature deaths and 1,000 more people living free of these diseases each year in England. We estimate that the current programme is increasing QALYs by 3.8 days (95% credible interval 3.0-4.7) per head of population and increasing survival by 3.3 days (2.5-4.1) per head of population over the 60 years of follow-up. The current programme has a greater absolute impact on health for those living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the least deprived areas (4.4 [2.7-6.5] days of additional quality-adjusted life per head of population versus 2.8 [1.7-4.0] days; 5.1 [3.4-7.1] additional days lived per head of population versus 3.3 [2.1-4.5] days). Making feasible changes to the delivery of the existing programme could result in a sizable increase in the benefit. For example, a strategy that combines extending eligibility to those with preexisting hypertension, extending the upper age of eligibility to 79 years, increasing uptake of health checks by 30%, and increasing treatment rates 2.5-fold amongst eligible patients (i.e., 'maximum potential' scenario) results in at least a 3-fold increase in benefits compared to the current programme (1,360 premature deaths versus 390; 5,100 people free of 1 of the 4 diseases versus 1,370; 37,000 additional QALYs versus 10,000; 33,000 additional years of life versus 9,000). Ensuring those who are assessed and eligible for statins receive statins is a particularly important strategy to increase benefits. Estimates of overall benefit are based on current incidence and management, and future declines in disease incidence or improvements in treatment could alter the actual benefits observed in the long run. We have focused on the cardiovascular element of the NHS Health Check programme. Some important noncardiovascular health outcomes (e.g., chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] prevention from smoking cessation and cancer prevention from weight loss) and other parts of the programme (e.g., brief interventions to reduce harmful alcohol consumption) have not been modelled. CONCLUSIONS: Our model indicates that the current NHS Health Check programme is contributing to improvements in health and reducing health inequalities. Feasible changes in the organisation of the programme could result in more than a 3-fold increase in health benefits.

Association between intake of less-healthy foods defined by the United Kingdom's nutrient profile model and cardiovascular disease: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, the Food Standards Agency-Ofcom nutrient profiling model (FSA-Ofcom model) is used to define less-healthy foods that cannot be advertised to children. However, there has been limited investigation of whether less-healthy foods defined by this model are associated with prospective health outcomes. The objective of this study was to test whether consumption of less-healthy food as defined by the FSA-Ofcom model is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort study in adults (n = 25,639) aged 40-79 years who completed a 7-day diet diary between 1993 and 1997. Incident CVD (primary outcome), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality (secondary outcomes) were identified using record linkage to hospital admissions data and death certificates up to 31 March 2015. Each food and beverage item reported was coded and given a continuous score, using the FSA-Ofcom model, based on the consumption of energy; saturated fat; total sugar; sodium; nonsoluble fibre; protein; and fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Items were classified as less-healthy using Ofcom regulation thresholds. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to test for an association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD. Sensitivity analyses explored whether the results differed based on the definition of the exposure. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, behavioural risk factors, clinical risk factors, and socioeconomic status. Participants were followed up for a mean of 16.4 years. During follow-up, there were 4,965 incident cases of CVD (1,524 fatal within 30 days). In the unadjusted analyses, we observed an association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD (test for linear trend over quintile groups, p < 0.01). After adjustment for covariates (sociodemographic, behavioural, and indices of cardiovascular risk), we found no association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD (p = 0.84) or cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.90), but there was an association between consumption of less-healthy food and all-cause mortality (test for linear trend, p = 0.006; quintile group 5, highest consumption of less-healthy food, versus quintile group 1, HR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.02-1.20). Sensitivity analyses produced similar results. The study is observational and relies on self-report of dietary consumption. Despite adjustment for known and reported confounders, residual confounding is possible. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for potential confounding factors, no significant association between consumption of less-healthy food (as classified by the FSA-Ofcom model) and CVD was observed in this study. This suggests, in the UK setting, that the FSA-Ofcom model is not consistently discriminating among foods with respect to their association with CVD. More studies are needed to understand better the relationship between consumption of less-healthy food, defined by the FSA-Ofcom model, and indices of health.

Associations of active commuting with body fat and visceral adipose tissue: A cross-sectional population based study in the UK.

The promotion of active travel (walking and cycling) is one promising approach to prevent the development of obesity and related cardio-metabolic disease. However the associations between active travel and adiposity remain uncertain. We used the Fenland study (a population based-cohort study; Cambridgeshire, UK, 2005-15) to describe the association of commuting means with DEXA measured body fat and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) among commuters (aged 29-65years; n=7680). We stratified our sample into those living near (within five miles) and far (five miles or further) from work, and categorised commuting means differently for each group reflecting their different travel options. Associations were adjusted for age, education, Mediterranean diet score, smoking, alcohol consumption, test site and either self-reported physical activity or objective physical activity. Among those living near to work, people who reported regularly cycling to work had lower body fat than those who only used the car (adjusting for self-reported physical activity: women, -1.74%, 95% CI: -2.27% to -0.76%; men, -1.30%, -2.26% to -0.33%). Among those who lived far from work, people who reported regular car-use with active travel had lower body fat (women; -1.18%, 95% CI: -2.23% to -0.13%; men, -1.19%, -1.93% to -0.44%). Findings were similar for VAT and when adjusting for objectively measured physical activity instead of self-reported physical activity. In conclusion, active commuting may reduce adiposity and help prevent related cardio-metabolic disease. If people live too far from work to walk or cycle the whole journey, incorporating some active travel within the commute is also beneficial.

The modelled impact of increases in physical activity: the effect of both increased survival and reduced incidence of disease.

Physical activity can affect 'need' for healthcare both by reducing the incidence rate of some diseases and by increasing longevity (increasing the time lived at older ages when disease incidence is higher). However, it is common to consider only the first effect, which may overestimate any reduction in need for healthcare. We developed a hybrid micro-simulation lifetable model, which made allowance for both changes in longevity and risk of disease incidence, to estimate the effects of increases in physical activity (all adults meeting guidelines) on measures of healthcare need for diseases for which physical activity is protective. These were compared with estimates made using comparative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which assumed that longevity was fixed. Using the lifetable model, life expectancy increased by 95 days (95% uncertainty intervals: 68-126 days). Estimates of the healthcare need tended to decrease, but the magnitude of the decreases were noticeably smaller than those estimated using CRA methods (e.g. dementia: change in person-years, -0.6%, 95% uncertainty interval -3.7% to +1.6%; change in incident cases, -0.4%, -3.6% to +1.9%; change in person-years (CRA methods), -4.0%, -7.4% to -1.6%). The pattern of results persisted under different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. For most diseases for which physical activity is protective, increases in physical activity are associated with decreases in indices of healthcare need. However, disease onset may be delayed or time lived with disease may increase, such that the decreases in need may be relatively small and less than is sometimes expected.

Why Are Some Population Interventions for Diet and Obesity More Equitable and Effective Than Others? The Role of Individual Agency.

Jean Adams and colleagues argue that population interventions that require individuals to use a low level of agency to benefit are likely to be most effective and most equitable.

Correction: Why Are Some Population Interventions for Diet and Obesity More Equitable and Effective Than Others? The Role of Individual Agency.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001990.].

Longitudinal associations of active commuting with wellbeing and sickness absence.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to explore longitudinal associations of active commuting (cycling to work and walking to work) with physical wellbeing (PCS-8), mental wellbeing (MCS-8) and sickness absence. METHOD: We used data from the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study (2009 to 2012; n=801) to test associations between: a) maintenance of cycling (or walking) to work over a one year period and indices of wellbeing at the end of that one year period; and b) associations between change in cycling (or walking) to work and change in indices of wellbeing. Linear regression was used for testing associations with PCS-8 and MCS-8, and negative binomial regression for sickness absence. RESULTS: After adjusting for sociodemographic variables, physical activity and physical limitation, those who maintained cycle commuting reported lower sickness absence (0.46, 95% CI: 0.14-0.80; equivalent to one less day per year) and higher MCS-8 scores (1.50, 0.10-2.10) than those who did not cycle to work. The association for sickness absence persisted after adjustment for baseline sickness absence. No significant associations were observed for PCS-8. Associations between change in cycle commuting and change in indices of wellbeing were not significant. No significant associations were observed for walking. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides some evidence of the value of cycle commuting in improving or maintaining the health and wellbeing of adults of working age. This may be important in engaging employers in the promotion of active travel and communicating the benefits of active travel to employees.

Longitudinal associations of active commuting with body mass index.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the longitudinal associations between active commuting (walking and cycling to work) and body mass index (BMI). METHOD: We used self-reported data on height, weight and active commuting from the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study (2009 to 2012; n=809). We used linear regression to test the associations between: a) maintenance of active commuting over one year and BMI at the end of that year; and b) change in weekly time spent in active commuting and change in BMI over one year. RESULTS: After adjusting for sociodemographic variables, other physical activity, physical wellbeing and maintenance of walking, those who maintained cycle commuting reported a lower BMI on average at one year follow-up (1.14kg/m(2), 95% CI: 0.30 to 1.98, n=579) than those who never cycled to work. No significant association remained after adjustment for baseline BMI. No significant associations were observed for maintenance of walking. An increase in walking was associated with a reduction in BMI (0.32kg/m(2), 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.62, n=651, after adjustment for co-variates and baseline BMI) only when restricting the analysis to those who did not move. No other significant associations between changes in weekly time spent walking or cycling on the commute and changes in BMI were observed. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides further evidence of the contribution of active commuting, particularly cycling, to preventing weight gain or facilitating weight loss. The findings may be valuable for employees choosing how to commute and engaging employers in the promotion of active travel.