Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Functional Disability: a Cohort Study of Japanese Older Adults in 2013-2019.

BACKGROUND: It is important to identify older adults at high risk of functional disability and to take preventive measures for them at an early stage. To our knowledge, there are no studies that predict functional disability among community-dwelling older adults using machine learning algorithms. OBJECTIVE: To construct a model that can predict functional disability over 5 years using basic machine learning algorithms. DESIGN: A cohort study with a mean follow-up of 5.4 years. PARTICIPANTS: We used data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, which involved 73,262 people aged ≥ 65 years who were not certified as requiring long-term care. The baseline survey was conducted in 2013 in 19 municipalities. MAIN MEASURES: We defined the onset of functional disability as the new certification of needing long-term care that was ascertained by linking participants to public registries of long-term care insurance. All 183 candidate predictors were measured by self-report questionnaires. KEY RESULTS: During the study period, 16,361 (22.3%) participants experienced the onset of functional disability. Among machine learning-based models, ridge regression (C statistic = 0.818) and gradient boosting (0.817) effectively predicted functional disability. In both models, we identified age, self-rated health, variables related to falls and posture stabilization, and diagnoses of Parkinson's disease and dementia as important features. Additionally, the ridge regression model identified the household characteristics such as the number of members, income, and receiving public assistance as important predictors, while the gradient boosting model selected moderate physical activity and driving. Based on the ridge regression model, we developed a simplified risk score for functional disability, and it also indicated good performance at the cut-off of 6/7 points. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning-based models showed effective performance prediction over 5 years. Our findings suggest that measuring and adding the variables identified as important features can improve the prediction of functional disability.

Influence of post-disaster evacuation on incidence of hyperuricemia in residents of Fukushima Prefecture: the Fukushima Health Management Survey.

AIM: After the Great East Japan Earthquake, over 160,000 residents in Fukushima Prefecture were forced to evacuate the area around the Fukushima Daiichi power plant following nuclear accident there. Health problems in these evacuees have since become a major issue. We have examined the association between evacuation and incidence of hyperuricemia among residents in Fukushima. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of residents aged 40-90 years without hyperuricemia at the time of the Fukushima disaster. Among 8173 residents who met the inclusion criteria before the disaster, 4789 residents (men: 1971, women: 2818; follow-up duration: 1.38 years; and follow-up rate: 58.6%) remained available for follow-up examinations at the end of March 2013. The main endpoint was incidence of hyperuricemia, defined by the Japanese committee guidelines, using local health data from before and after the disaster. We divided participants by evacuation status and compared outcomes between groups. Using a logistic regression model, we estimated the odds ratio for incidence of hyperuricemia, adjusting for potential confounders, age, gender, waist circumference, physical activity, and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Incidence of hyperuricemia was higher in evacuees (men 10.1%; women 1.1%) than in non-evacuees (men 7.4%, women 1.0%). Evacuees had higher body mass index, waist circumference, triglycerides, LDL-cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, and lower HDL-cholesterol after the disaster than non-evacuees. We found that evacuation was associated with incidence of hyperuricemia (adjusted odds ratio: 1.38; 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.86). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to demonstrate an association between evacuation after a disaster and increased incidence of hyperuricemia.

Fasting but not casual blood glucose is associated with pancreatic cancer mortality in Japanese: EPOCH-JAPAN.

PURPOSE: The dose-response relationship between fasting blood glucose levels and risk of pancreatic cancer has been investigated, but the association between casual blood glucose levels and pancreatic cancer death has not been examined. We examined the association between casual and fasting blood glucose levels and death due to pancreatic cancer in Japanese. METHODS: We performed a pooled analysis of the individual Japanese including 46,387 participants aged 40-79 years from ten cohorts. Participants were classified into five groups: low normal, middle normal, high normal, prediabetes (casual blood glucose 140-199 mg/dl, or fasting blood glucose 110-125 mg/dl), and diabetes (casual blood glucose ≥200 mg/dl, fasting blood glucose ≥126 mg/dl, or anti-diabetic drug use). Low normal, middle normal, and high normal were defined according to tertiles of casual or fasting normal blood glucose levels. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pancreatic cancer mortality were estimated stratifying casual and fasting blood glucose by cohort-stratified Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, with low normal (casual blood glucose <94 mg/dl, or fasting blood glucose <90 mg/dl) as a reference. RESULTS: Fasting blood glucose showed a dose-response relationship with pancreatic cancer mortality (p for trend = 0.005). After adjusting for covariates, HRs (95% CIs) were 2.83 (1.18-6.76) for prediabetes and 3.96 (1.56-10.08) for diabetes. However, there were no significant associations with casual blood glucose. These tendencies were observed after the exclusion of participants who were censored for the first 5 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Fasting blood glucose is a better predictor of pancreatic cancer death than casual blood glucose.

Evacuation after the Great East Japan Earthquake was associated with poor dietary intake: The Fukushima Health Management Survey.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated the relationship between living arrangements and dietary intake among evacuees after disasters. OBJECTIVES: To examine the relationship between living arrangements and dietary intake using the data of a large-scale cohort survey of evacuees after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. METHODS: 73,433 residents in evacuation zones responded to the Fukushima Health Management Survey questionnaire. Subjects were excluded if they did not report their living conditions or were missing more than three pieces of information about dietary intake. The data of 52,314 subjects (23,149 men and 29,165 women ≥15 years old) were used for the analyses. Evacuees' living arrangements were characterized into three categories: evacuation shelters or temporary housing, rental houses or apartments, or a relative's home or their own home. Dietary intake was characterized in terms of grains, fruits and vegetables, meat, soybean products, dairy products, and fish. Daily consumption of the third quartile (Q3) or higher for each food group was defined as 'high consumption'. Prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using modified Poisson regression analyses. RESULTS: Modified Poisson regression analyses showed that, compared with respondents living in a relative's home or their own home, the PRs and 95% CIs for the people living in rental apartments of high consumption of fruits and vegetables (non-juice), meat, soybean products, and dairy products were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.61-0.77), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.73-0.91), 0.89 (95% CI, 0.83-0.94), and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.74-0.93) respectively. The corresponding PRs and 95% CIs for people living in evacuation shelters or temporary housing were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.88), 0.90 (95% CI, 0.86-0.95), 0.94 (95% CI, 0.91-0.97), and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.86-0.96) for high consumption of fruits and vegetables (non-juice), meat, soybean products, and dairy products, respectively. CONCLUSION: The present study suggests that, after the earthquake, living in non-home conditions was associated with poor dietary intake of fruits and vegetables (non-juice), meat, soybean products, and dairy products, suggesting the need for early improvements in the provision of balanced meals among evacuees living in non-home conditions.

Effect of evacuation on liver function after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident: The Fukushima Health Management Survey.

BACKGROUND: The Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident caused residents to switch from their normal lives to lives focused on evacuation. We evaluated liver function before and after this disaster to elucidate the effects of evacuation on liver function. METHODS: This study was a longitudinal survey of 26,006 Japanese men and women living near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. This study was undertaken using data from annual health checkups conducted for persons aged 40-90 years between 2008 and 2010. Follow-up examinations were conducted from June 2011 to the end of March 2013, with a mean follow up of 1.6 years. Changes in liver function before and after the disaster were compared among evacuees and non-evacuees. We also assessed groups according to alcohol drinking status. RESULTS: The prevalence of liver dysfunction significantly increased in all participants from 16.4% before to 19.2% after the disaster. The incidence of liver dysfunction was significantly higher in evacuees than in non-evacuees. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that evacuation was significantly associated with liver dysfunction among residents. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to show that evacuation due to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster was associated with an increase in liver dysfunction.

The impact of evacuation on the incidence of chronic kidney disease after the Great East Japan Earthquake: The Fukushima Health Management Survey.

BACKGROUND: About 146,000 people were forced into long-term evacuation due to the nuclear power plant accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Disaster is known to induce hypertension in survivors for a certain period, but it is unclear whether prolonged disaster stress influences chronic kidney disease (CKD). We conducted an observational cohort study to elucidate the effects of evacuation stress on CKD incidence. METHODS: Participants were individuals living in communities near the Fukushima nuclear power plant, aged 40-74 years without CKD as of their 2011 general health checkup (non-evacuees: n = 9780, evacuees: n = 4712). We followed new-onset CKD [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or proteinuria] using general annual health checkup data from 2012 to 2014. Association between evacuation and CKD incidence was analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Mean age of the participants at baseline was 65 years, 46.7% were men, and baseline eGFR was 75.7 ml/min/1.73 m2. During the mean follow-up period of 2.46 years, CKD incidence rate was 80.8/1000 and 100.2/1000 person-years in non-evacuees and evacuees, respectively. Evacuation was a significant risk factor of CKD incidence after adjusting for age, gender, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, and baseline eGFR [hazard ratio (HR): 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-1.56]. Evacuation was significantly associated with the incidence of eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (HR: 1.48; 95% CI 1.37-1.60), but not with the incidence of proteinuria (HR: 1.21; 95% CI 0.93-1.56). CONCLUSION: Evacuation was a risk factor associated with CKD incidence after the disaster.

Lifestyle-related factors that explain disaster-induced changes in socioeconomic status and poor subjective health: a cross-sectional study from the Fukushima health management survey.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) and lifestyle-related factors are determinants of subjective health. However, changes in SES are inevitable in times of natural disaster, while lifestyle-related factors remain modifiable. The aim of this study was to use a cross-sectional approach to examine lifestyle-related factors that may attenuate the negative impact of disaster-induced changes in SES on poor subjective health. METHODS: We analyzed 33,350 men and women aged 20-64 years who were living in evacuation zones due to the radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan. Disaster-induced changes in SES were defined by living arrangements and working conditions. Using Poisson regression analysis adjusted for confounders (model 1) and lifestyle-related factors as intermediate variables (model 2), we compared the prevalence ratios (PRs) of poor subjective health of participants who did not undergo disaster-induced changes in SES (did not become unemployed, income did not decrease, and living in relative's home/own home) with that of participants who did undergo disaster-induced changes in SES (became unemployed, decreased income, or lived in an evacuation shelter, temporary housing, or rental housing/apartment). We calculated the percentage of excess risks explained by lifestyle-related factors as follows: ((PRmodel 1 - PRmodel 2)/(PRmodel 1-1)) × 100. RESULTS: Disaster-induced changes in SES were significantly associated with poor subjective health. The PRs (95% CIs) among participants who underwent disaster-induced changes in SES were 2.02 (1.81-2.24) for men and 1.80 (1.65-1.97) for women. After adjusting for lifestyle-related factors, we found that the PRs in men and women were remarkably attenuated, decreasing to 1.56 (1.40-1.73) and 1.43 (1.31-1.55), respectively. Controlling for lifestyle-related factors resulted in PR attenuation by 45.1% (men) and 46.3% (women). Satisfaction of sleep and participation in recreation and community activity particularly contributed to this attenuation. CONCLUSIONS: While disaster-induced changes in SES are unavoidable, lifestyle-related factors have the potential to attenuate the impact of these changes on poor subjective health.

Diagnostic interview study of the prevalence of depression among public employees engaged in long-term relief work in Fukushima.

AIM: The Great East Japan Earthquake and in particular, the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, have had a serious psychological impact on not only residents, but also relief workers in Fukushima. Although public employees work in highly stressful situations and play a very important role in long-term relief, their psychiatric features have yet to be clarified. The two aims of this study were to identify the current prevalence rate of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder among public employees working in the disaster area using diagnostic interviews, and to speculate on the psychosocial factors affecting their mental condition. METHODS: We conducted diagnostic interviews and self-administered questionnaires with 168 public employees working in two coastal towns in Fukushima. RESULTS: Results showed that the current prevalence of depression among public employees is as high as 17.9%, in contrast to the relatively low prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (4.8%). Based on the results of self-administered questionnaires and interview contents, frequent exposure to strong complaints or anger from residents and role conflicts were considered the cause of the high prevalence of depression. CONCLUSION: The present study reveals the serious mental status of public employees working in Fukushima and sheds light on the urgent need to establish an efficient care network to provide adequate psychiatric intervention.

Three-year trend survey of psychological distress, post-traumatic stress, and problem drinking among residents in the evacuation zone after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident [The Fukushima Health Management Survey].

AIM: Prolonged periods of instability in terms of living environment can lead to a serious increase in mental health issues among disaster-affected individuals. The aim of this study was to assess long-term trends in mental health among adult residents in a nuclear-disaster-affected area. METHODS: Mail-based, self-administered questionnaire surveys were conducted three times (T1-T3), targeting all residents registered with the municipalities in the evacuation zone in Fukushima prefecture at the time of the disaster. Age-adjusted prevalences of the following were analyzed by sex: risk of psychological distress by the Kessler 6-item Scale, post-traumatic stress by the Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist, and problem drinking by CAGE. RESULTS: The numbers of respondents and response rates were: 73 568, 40.7% (T1); 55 076, 29.9% (T2); and 46 386, 25.0% (T3). Compared with normal Japanese levels in non-disaster settings (4.7%), the prevalence of general psychological distress by Kessler 6-item Scale ≥ 13 was still high 3 years after the event in both men (11.4%) and women (15.8%). Although the age-adjusted prevalence of psychological distress and post-traumatic stress (Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist ≥ 44) had decreased over time (from 19.0% [T1] to 17.8% [T3] for men, and from 25.3% [T1] to 23.3% [T3] for women), the age-adjusted prevalence of problem drinking (CAGE ≥ 2) remained steady in both men (20.7% [T2] and 20.4% [T3]; P = 0.18) and women (10.5% [T2] and 10.5% [T3]; P = 0.91). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that long-term interventions focused on post-traumatic stress as well as other mental health problems are strongly needed for disaster-affected individuals.

[Association between evacuation condition and habitual physical activity in Great East Japan Earthquake evacuees: The Fukushima Health Management Survey].

Objectives: Prevalence of life-style disease has increased dramatically in evacuees due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. One reason may be that physical activity level decreased from life environment changes due to evacuation. However, associations between evacuation condition and habitual physical activity have not been studied. We examined this association in Fukushima residents who participated in the Fukushima Health Management Survey. Methods: In this study, 37,843 evacuees from 13 municipal evacuation zones from the nuclear-power accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, born before April 1, 1995, were included in the analysis. Evacuation condition was defined by disaster living place (13 zones), evacuation place (inside or outside the prefecture), and current living status (evacuation shelter or temporary housing, rental housing/ apartment, and relative's home or own home). Habitual physical activity was defined from self-administered questionnaires as participants who responded "almost every day" and "2-4 times/week" of regular exercise. In the analysis, habitual physical activity prevalence was aggregated by gender and variables (living place in the disaster, evacuation place, and current living status). Prevalence was adjusted for age, disaster living place, evacuation place, and current living status by standard analysis of covariance methods. Results: Adjusted prevalences of habitual physical activity were: men, 27.9-46.5%; women, 27.0-43.7% in each disaster living place. The differences were 18.6% point in men and 16.7% point in women. For evacuation place, physical activity outside the prefecture for men (37.7%) and inside the prefecture for women (32.1%) were higher, but those differences were only 2.2% point and 1.8% point in men and women, respectively. For current living status, physical activity of those in rental housing/ apartment was the lowest; evacuation shelter or temporary housing was the highest in both genders (men: 38.9%, women: 36.7%). Compared with residents in evacuation shelter or temporary housing, those in rental housing/apartment were 5.4% point and 7.1% point lower and those in relative's home or own home were 2.0% point and 4.2% point lower in men and women. Conclusion: Habitual physical activity in residents who lived in 13 municipal evacuation zone differed by disaster living place and current living status, while it was similar regardless of placement in the prefecture. In particular, prevalence was the lowest in participants who lived in rental housing/ apartment. We need to plan and perform additional life-style disease prevention strategies for participants who become isolated.

Association between body-mass index and risk of death in more than 1 million Asians.

BACKGROUND: Most studies that have evaluated the association between the body-mass index (BMI) and the risks of death from any cause and from specific causes have been conducted in populations of European origin. METHODS: We performed pooled analyses to evaluate the association between BMI and the risk of death among more than 1.1 million persons recruited in 19 cohorts in Asia. The analyses included approximately 120,700 deaths that occurred during a mean follow-up period of 9.2 years. Cox regression models were used to adjust for confounding factors. RESULTS: In the cohorts of East Asians, including Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans, the lowest risk of death was seen among persons with a BMI (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) in the range of 22.6 to 27.5. The risk was elevated among persons with BMI levels either higher or lower than that range--by a factor of up to 1.5 among those with a BMI of more than 35.0 and by a factor of 2.8 among those with a BMI of 15.0 or less. A similar U-shaped association was seen between BMI and the risks of death from cancer, from cardiovascular diseases, and from other causes. In the cohorts comprising Indians and Bangladeshis, the risks of death from any cause and from causes other than cancer or cardiovascular disease were increased among persons with a BMI of 20.0 or less, as compared with those with a BMI of 22.6 to 25.0, whereas there was no excess risk of either death from any cause or cause-specific death associated with a high BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Underweight was associated with a substantially increased risk of death in all Asian populations. The excess risk of death associated with a high BMI, however, was seen among East Asians but not among Indians and Bangladeshis.

Low-carbohydrate diets and cardiovascular and total mortality in Japanese: a 29-year follow-up of NIPPON DATA80.

Long-term safety of consuming low-carbohydrate diets (LCD) in Asian populations, whose carbohydrate intake is relatively high, is not known. In the present study, the association of LCD with CVD and total mortality was assessed using data obtained in the NIPPON DATA80 (National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Non-communicable Disease and Its Trends in the Aged 1980) during 29 years of follow-up. At baseline in 1980, data were collected from study participants aged ≥ 30 years from randomly selected areas in Japan. LCD scores were calculated based on the percentage of energy as carbohydrate, fat and protein, estimated by 3 d weighed food records. A total of 9200 participants (56% women, mean age 51 years) were followed up. During the follow-up, 1171 CVD deaths (52% in women) and 3443 total deaths (48% in women) occurred. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for CVD mortality using the Cox model comparing the highest v. lowest deciles of LCD score was 0·60 (95% CI 0·38, 0·94; P(trend) = 0·021) for women and 0·78 (95% CI 0·58, 1·05; P(trend) = 0·079) for women and men combined; the HR for total mortality was 0·74 (95% CI 0·57, 0·95; P(trend) = 0·029) for women and 0·87 (95% CI 0·74, 1·02; P(trend) = 0·090) for women and men combined. None of the associations was statistically significant in men. No differential effects of animal-based and plant-fish-based LCD were observed. In conclusions, moderate diets lower in carbohydrate and higher in protein and fat are significantly inversely associated with CVD and total mortality in women.

Long sleep duration and cause-specific mortality according to physical function and self-rated health: the Ohsaki Cohort Study.

Although several studies have examined the association between sleep duration and all-cause or cause-specific mortality, it is unclear whether long sleep duration might merely reflect decreased physical strength and poorer health status. We therefore examined the association between sleep duration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and conducted stratified analysis based on physical function and self-rated health. This study used prospective data from the Ohsaki Cohort Study, conducted in Miyagi Prefecture, in northern Japan. This study population comprised 49 256 subjects aged 40-79 years at the baseline survey. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the five categories of sleep duration (≤6, 7, 8, 9, ≥10 h day(-1) ), treating 7 h as the reference group, employing Cox's proportional hazard regression analysis. We found that long sleep duration was associated with mortality. The HRs (95% CIs) of subjects who slept more than 10 h were 1.37 (1.27-1.47), 1.49 (1.30-1.71) and 1.53 (1.36-1.73) for mortality due to all causes, total cardiovascular disease and other causes of death mortality, respectively. The association between long sleep duration and stroke mortality was especially marked among subjects with limited physical function and poorer health status. However, we did not observe such a trend for mortality due to all causes, total cardiovascular disease, ischaemic heart disease, cancer or other causes of death. We conclude that, with the exception of stroke mortality, the association between long sleep duration and mortality is not modified by physical function or health status.

Epidemiology of hypertension in Japan: where are we now?

Analyses of data from national surveys of the Japanese population have shown a clear decreasing tendency in mean systolic blood pressure (BP) level over the past 50 years in all age groups of men and women; however, mean diastolic BP level clearly did not decrease in men. Hypertension prevalence is high among older people and may increase in the future, especially in men aged ≥50 years. The treatment and control rates of hypertension are not sufficiently high, although they have been continuously improving. Recent epidemiological studies also showed that the burden of cardiovascular diseases and total mortality because of the adverse BP level of the nation is still the highest among other preventable risk factors. To overcome this epidemic, the first priority should be primary prevention of a lifetime increase in BP through lifestyle improvement. Lowering the distribution of BP in the whole population and maintaining BP at optimal levels contributes to the achievement of this goal.

Impact of weight change since age 20 and cardiovascular disease mortality risk: the Ohsaki Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether weight change since young adulthood affects the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to investigate weight change since age 20 in relation to the risk of CVD mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 41,364 eligible Japanese men and women aged 40-79 years participated in the Ohsaki Cohort Study baseline survey in 1994. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for CVD mortality were calculated according to weight change since age 20 (loss ≥ 10.0 kg; loss 5.0-9.9 kg; stable [± 4.9 kg]; gain 5.0-9.9 kg; gain ≥ 10.0 kg). During 13.3 years of follow-up, 1,756 participants died of CVD. The association between weight change and CVD mortality was L-shaped in men and U-shaped in women; the multivariate HR (95% CI) for men with weight loss ≥ 10.0 kg was 1.52 (1.25-1.85), and that for women with weight loss ≥ 10.0 kg and weight gain ≥ 10.0 kg was 1.62 (1.25-2.11) and 1.36 (1.09-1.69), respectively. Cross-classification analysis based on body mass index (BMI) at age 20 and weight change tended to be U-shaped, except for men whose BMI had been <25 kg/m(2) at age 20, in which case it was L-shaped. CONCLUSIONS: Weight loss since young adulthood is associated with excess risk of mortality due to CVD in men, while a U-shaped relationship was observed for women.

[Serum total cholesterol levels and eligibility for long-term care insurance: a prospective cohort study of the Tsurugaya project].

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between serum total cholesterol levels and certification eligibility for long-term care insurance in elderly Japanese individuals. METHODS: The Tsurugaya Project was a comprehensive geriatric assessment conducted for community-dwelling elderly individuals aged ≥70 years in the Tsurugaya area, Sendai, Japan. Of the 2,925 inhabitants, 958 subjects participated in the Tsurugaya Project. For this analysis, we used 827 subjects who gave informed consent and were not qualified for long-term care insurance at the time of the baseline survey. Subjects were followed up for 6 years. We classified the subjects into 4 quintiles and used the fourth quintile (212-230 mg/dL) as a reference for statistical analysis. We used Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of certification eligibility for long-term care insurance according to total cholesterol levels in serum. RESULTS: During 6 years of follow-up, a total of 214 subjects were qualified for long-term care insurance certification. The lowest serum total cholesterol level (<177 mg/dL) was significantly associated with increased eligibility for long-term care insurance certification. Compared with the fourth quintile, multivariate HRs (95%CIs) of long-term care insurance certification were 1.91 (1.23-2.98), 1.36 (0.85-2.18), 0.99 (0.62-1.56), 1.38 (0.88-2.17), for <177 mg/dL, 177-194 mg/dL, 195-211 mg/dL, and ≤231 mg/dL, respectively. Moreover, the association was statistically significant even after excluding subjects with a history of liver disease or cancer, an abnormality in the liver function test, or high levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. CONCLUSION: Low serum total cholesterol levels were significantly associated with increased eligibility for long-term care insurance certification even after adjusting for a variety of confounding factors.

Difficulties in Accessing Medication Records at the Time of a Large-Scale Disaster.

OBJECTIVE: In a large-scale disaster, medical professionals need to access medication records and provide medicines to people who cannot return home to take their daily medicines. We investigated the proportion of carrying the paper notebook or availability of the smartphone application of the medication record among people who are assumed to have difficulty in taking their medicines during large-scale disasters. METHODS: In Japan, a web-based survey was conducted in 2018 by randomly selecting adults ≥ 20 years of age. RESULTS: There were 2286 medication record owners in 3082 participants. Of the medication record owners, 784 (34.3%) took medicines that could not be missed for even a day. Among them, 724 used paper notebooks alone, 26 used smartphone applications alone, and 34 used both. Among the 724, 208 (28.8%) always carried a paper notebook. Among the 26, 16 (61.5%) could use their applications anytime. Therefore, among the 784, at least 560 (71.4%) could not always access their medication information. CONCLUSIONS: An awareness campaign to carry paper notebooks and install applications for medication records should be held, since only a limited number of people carry their medication records and always have access to their medication information.

Gains in disability-free life expectancy from elimination of diseases and injuries in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Although disability-free life expectancy has been investigated in Japan, gains from elimination of diseases and injuries have not been examined. METHODS: We used data from the 2007 Japanese national health statistics to calculate the number of years with and without activity limitation that could be expected from eliminating 6 selected diseases and injuries. RESULTS: At birth, the number of expected years of life without and with activity limitation was 70.8 and 8.4, respectively, in males and 74.2 and 11.8 in females. More than 1.0 expected years without activity limitation were gained from eliminating malignant neoplasms and cerebrovascular diseases; smaller gains were observed after eliminating other diseases and injuries. Elimination of cerebrovascular diseases, dementia, and fracture decreased expected years with activities of daily living (ADL) limitation, and elimination of shoulder lesions/low back pain decreased expected years with non-ADL limitation. CONCLUSIONS: Elimination of diseases and injuries increased expected years with and without activity limitation among Japanese, which suggests that improved prevention of those diseases and injuries-including cerebrovascular diseases and dementia-would result in longer disability-free life expectancy and fewer years of severe disability.

Gamma-glutamyltransferase and cancer incidence: the Ohsaki cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although experimental studies have shown that gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) has a role in tumor progression, epidemiologic evidence for a relationship between GGT and cancer incidence is limited. The present study investigated the association between GGT and cancer incidence and assessed the role of alcohol consumption in this association. METHODS: We examined a cohort of 15 031 Japanese adults aged 40 to 79 years who attended a health checkup in 1995 and were free of cancer at that time. GGT was measured using the Szasz method. The participants were then followed from 1 January 1996 until 31 December 2005, and cancer incidence was recorded by using the Miyagi Regional Cancer Registry. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed for each quartile of GGT and compared. The lowest quartile (GGT <13.0 IU/ml) was used as the reference category. RESULTS: We documented 1505 cancers. Among participants in the highest quartile (GGT ≥31.0 IU/ml), the multivariate HR for any cancer was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.08-1.53; P for trend, <0.001), the HR for colorectal cancer was significantly greater than unity, and the HRs for esophageal, pancreatic, and breast cancers were greater than unity but not significantly so. This positive trend was observed only in current drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that there is a positive relationship between GGT and cancer incidence only for alcohol-related cancers in current drinkers and that the positive association of GGT with cancer incidence largely reflects alcohol consumption.

Trends in life expectancy with care needs based on long-term care insurance data in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Using a previously developed method for calculating expected years of life with care needs based on data from the Japanese long-term care insurance system, we examined recent trends in expected years of life with care needs by age group and prefecture. METHODS: Information on care needs was available from the long-term care insurance system of Japan. Expected years of life with care needs by age group and prefecture in 2005-2009 were calculated. RESULTS: Expected years of life with care needs at age 65 increased from 1.43 years in 2005 to 1.62 years in 2009 for men, and from 2.99 to 3.44 years for women. As a proportion of total life expectancy, these values show an increase from 7.9% to 8.6% in men and from 12.9% to 14.4% in women. Expected years with care needs did not increase in the age groups of 65 to 69 and 70 to 74 years but markedly increased in the age group of 85 years or older. Expected years with care needs increased in every prefecture during the period studied. The difference in 2005 between the 25th and 75th percentiles in prefectural distributions was 0.16 years for men and 0.35 years for women. The difference remained nearly constant between 2005 and 2009. CONCLUSIONS: Expected number of years of life with care needs increased among Japanese from 2005 to 2009, and there was a wide range in distribution among prefectures. Further studies on coverage of care needs under the long-term insurance program are necessary.