Identifying mechanisms underlying individual body size increases in a changing, highly seasonal environment: The growing trout of West brook.

As air temperature increases, it has been suggested that smaller individual body size may be a general response to climate warming. However, for ectotherms inhabiting cold, highly seasonal environments, warming temperatures may increase the scope for growth and result in larger body size. In a long-term study of individual brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting a small stream network, individual lengths increased over the course of 15 years. As size-selective gains and losses to the population acted to reduce body sizes and mean body size at first tagging in the autumn (<60 mm) were not observed to change substantially over time, the increase in body size was best explained by higher individual growth rates. For brook trout, increasing water temperatures during the spring (when both trout species accomplish most of their total annual growth) was the primary driver of growth rate for juvenile fish and the environmental factor which best explained increases in individual body size over time. For brown trout, by contrast, reduction in and subsequent elimination of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar midway through the study period explained most of the increases in juvenile growth and body size. In addition to these major trends, a considerable amount of interannual variation in trout growth and body size was explained by other abiotic (stream flow) and biotic (population density) factors with the direction and magnitude of these effects differing by season, age-class and species. For example, stream flow was the dominant growth rate driver for adult fish with strong positive effects in the summer and autumn, but flow variation could not explain increases in body size as we observed no trend in flow. Overall, our work supports the general contention that for high-latitude ectotherms, increasing spring temperatures associated with a warming climate can result in increased growth and individual body size (up to a point), but context-dependent change in other factors can substantially contribute to both interannual variation and longer-term effects.

High summer temperatures are associated with poorer performance of underyearling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in upland streams.

Future warming scenarios are predicted to result in an increased frequency of high, and potentially stressful, temperatures in aquatic ecosystems. Here we examined whether the performance of wild underyearling Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in Scottish streams stocked with identical egg densities was influenced by thermal stress. Biomass and density declined with degree hours exceeding 23°C, indicating apparent mortality or emigration as a possible result of exposure to high temperatures. These results strengthen the need for further action such as riparian tree planting to reduce stream summer temperatures.

Metabolic Rate Interacts with Resource Availability to Determine Individual Variation in Microhabitat Use in the Wild.

Ecological pressures such as competition can lead individuals within a population to partition resources or habitats, but the underlying intrinsic mechanisms that determine an individual's resource use are not well understood. Here we show that an individual's own energy demand and associated competitive ability influence its resource use, but only when food is more limiting. We tested whether intraspecific variation in metabolic rate leads to microhabitat partitioning among juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in natural streams subjected to manipulated nutrient levels and subsequent per capita food availability. We found that individual salmon from families with a higher baseline (standard) metabolic rate (which is associated with greater competitive ability) tended to occupy faster-flowing water, but only in streams with lower per capita food availability. Faster-flowing microhabitats yield more food, but high metabolic rate fish only benefited from faster growth in streams with high food levels, presumably because in low-food environments the cost of a high metabolism offsets the benefits of acquiring a productive microhabitat. The benefits of a given metabolic rate were thus context dependent. These results demonstrate that intraspecific variation in metabolic rate can interact with resource availability to determine the spatial structuring of wild populations.

Nutrients from salmon parents alter selection pressures on their offspring.

Organisms can modify their surrounding environment, but whether these changes are large enough to feed back and alter their evolutionary trajectories is not well understood, particularly in wild populations. Here we show that nutrient pulses from decomposing Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) parents alter selection pressures on their offspring with important consequences for their phenotypic and genetic diversity. We found a strong survival advantage to larger eggs and faster juvenile metabolic rates in streams lacking carcasses but not in streams containing this parental nutrient input. Differences in selection intensities led to significant phenotypic divergence in these two traits among stream types. Stronger selection in streams with low parental nutrient input also decreased the number of surviving families compared to streams with high parental nutrient levels. Observed effects of parent-derived nutrients on selection pressures provide experimental evidence for key components of eco-evolutionary feedbacks in wild populations.

Experimental test of genetic rescue in isolated populations of brook trout.

Genetic rescue is an increasingly considered conservation measure to address genetic erosion associated with habitat loss and fragmentation. The resulting gene flow from facilitating migration may improve fitness and adaptive potential, but is not without risks (e.g., outbreeding depression). Here, we conducted a test of genetic rescue by translocating ten (five of each sex) brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from a single source to four nearby and isolated stream populations. To control for the demographic contribution of translocated individuals, ten resident individuals (five of each sex) were removed from each recipient population. Prior to the introduction of translocated individuals, the two smallest above-barrier populations had substantially lower genetic diversity, and all populations had reduced effective number of breeders relative to adjacent below-barrier populations. In the first reproductive bout following translocation, 31 of 40 (78%) translocated individuals reproduced successfully. Translocated individuals contributed to more families than expected under random mating and generally produced larger full-sibling families. We observed relatively high (>20%) introgression in three of the four recipient populations. The translocations increased genetic diversity of recipient populations by 45% in allelic richness and 25% in expected heterozygosity. Additionally, strong evidence of hybrid vigour was observed through significantly larger body sizes of hybrid offspring relative to resident offspring in all recipient populations. Continued monitoring of these populations will test for negative fitness effects beyond the first generation. However, these results provide much-needed experimental data to inform the potential effectiveness of genetic rescue-motivated translocations.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout.

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) vs. density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type, and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Effective number of breeders provides a link between interannual variation in stream flow and individual reproductive contribution in a stream salmonid.

The effective number of breeders that give rise to a cohort (N(b)) is a promising metric for genetic monitoring of species with overlapping generations; however, more work is needed to understand factors that contribute to variation in this measure in natural populations. We tested hypotheses related to interannual variation in N(b) in two long-term studies of brook trout populations. We found no supporting evidence for our initial hypothesis that N^(b) reflects N^(c) (defined as the number of adults in a population at the time of reproduction). N^(b) was stable relative to N^(C) and did not follow trends in abundance (one stream negative, the other positive). We used stream flow estimates to test the alternative hypothesis that environmental factors constrain N(b). We observed an intermediate optimum autumn stream flow for both N^(b) (R(2) = 0.73, P = 0.02) and full-sibling family evenness (R(2) = 0.77, P = 0.01) in one population and a negative correlation between autumn stream flow and full-sib family evenness in the other population (r = -0.95, P = 0.02). Evidence for greater reproductive skew at the lowest and highest autumn flow was consistent with suboptimal conditions at flow extremes. A series of additional tests provided no supporting evidence for a related hypothesis that density-dependent reproductive success was responsible for the lack of relationship between N(b) and N(C) (so-called genetic compensation). This work provides evidence that N(b) is a useful metric of population-specific individual reproductive contribution for genetic monitoring across populations and the link we provide between stream flow and N(b) could be used to help predict population resilience to environmental change.

Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture-recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network.

Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses. We developed an integrated capture-recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival. We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature. Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative) in the summer and fall. These observations, combined with our ability to estimate the occurrence, magnitude and direction of fish movement between these habitat types, indicated that heterogeneity in response may provide a mechanism providing potential resilience to environmental change. Given that the challenges we faced in our study are likely to be common to many intensive data sets, the integrated modelling approach could be generally applicable and useful.

Spatial variation in the relationship between performance and metabolic rate in wild juvenile Atlantic salmon.

Maintenance of metabolic rate (MR, the energy cost of self-maintenance) is linked to behavioural traits and fitness and varies substantially within populations. Despite having received much attention, the causes and consequences of this variation remain obscure. Theoretically, such within-population variation in fitness-related traits can be maintained by environmental heterogeneity in selection patterns, but for MR, this has rarely been tested in nature. Here, we experimentally test whether the relationship between MR and performance can vary spatially by assessing survival, growth rate and movement of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) juveniles from 10 family groups differing in MR (measured as egg metabolism) that were stocked in parallel across 10 tributaries of a single watershed. The relationship between MR and relative survival and growth rate varied significantly among tributaries. Specifically, the effect of MR ranged from negative to positive for relative survival, whereas it was negative for growth rate. The association between MR and movement was positive and did not vary significantly among tributaries. These results are consistent with a fitness cost of traits associated with behavioural dominance that varies across relatively small spatial scales (within a single watershed). More generally, our results support the hypothesis that spatial heterogeneity in environmental conditions contributes to maintain within-population variation in fitness-related traits, such as MR.

Estimates of Effective Number of Breeders Identify Drivers of Decline in Mid-Atlantic Brook Trout Populations.

Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations have experienced marked declines throughout their native range and are presently threatened due to isolation in small habitat fragments, land use changes, and climate change. The existence of numerous, spatially distinct populations poses substantial challenges for monitoring population status (e.g., abundance, recruitment, or occupancy). Genetic monitoring with estimates of effective number of breeders (N b) provides a potentially powerful metric to complement existing population monitoring, assessment, and prioritization. We estimated N b for 71 Brook Trout habitat units in mid-Atlantic region of the United States and obtained a mean N b of 73.2 (range 6.90-493). Our modeling approach tested whether N b estimates were sensitive to differences in habitat size, presence of non-native salmonids, base flow index, temperature, acidic precipitation, and indices of anthropogenic disturbance. We found significant support for three of our hypotheses including the positive influences of available habitat and base flow index and negative effect of temperature. Our results are consistent with presently observed and predicted future impacts of climate change on populations of this cold-water fish. Importantly, these findings support the use of N b in population assessments as an index of relative population status.

Investigating impacts of small dams and dam removal on dissolved oxygen in streams.

Small surface-release dams are prevalent across North American watersheds and can alter stream flow, thermal regimes, nutrient dynamics, and sediment transport. These dams are often implicated as a cause of negative water quality impacts-including reduced dissolved oxygen (DO)-and dam removal is increasingly employed to restore natural stream processes and improve DO. Published impacts of small dams on DO vary widely across sites, and even less is known about the extent and timescale of DO recovery following removal. Therefore, we sought to quantify the effects of small dams and dam removal on DO and determine the dam, stream, and watershed characteristics driving inter-site variation in responses. We deployed continuous data loggers for 3 weeks during summer months in upstream (reference), impoundment, and downstream reaches at each of 15 dammed sites and collected equivalent data at 10 of those sites following dam removal. Prior to dam removal, most sites (60%) experienced a decrease in DO (an average of 1.15 mg/L lower) within the impoundment relative to upstream, but no consistent impacts on diel ranges or on downstream reaches. Before dam removal, 5 impacted stream reaches experienced minimum DO levels below acceptable water quality standards (<5 mg/L); after dam removal, 4 of 5 of these reaches met DO standards. Sites with wider impoundments relative to upstream widths and sites located in watersheds with more cultivated land experienced the greatest decreases in impoundment DO relative to upstream. Within one year following dam removal, impoundment DO recovered to upstream reference conditions at 80% of sites, with the magnitude of recovery strongly related to the magnitude of pre-removal impacts. These data suggest that broadly, small dams negatively affect stream DO, and the extent of effects are modulated by impoundment geometry and watershed characteristics. These results may help practitioners to prioritize restoration efforts at those sites where small dams are having outsized impacts, and therefore where the greatest water quality benefits may occur.

Nutrient limitation in Atlantic salmon rivers and streams: Causes, consequences, and management strategies.

Freshwater catchments can experience nutrient deficits that result in reduced primary and secondary productivity. The most commonly limiting nutrients are nitrogen and phosphorus, either separately or together. This review considers the impact of increasing nutrient limitation in temperate basin stream and river systems, focusing on upland areas that currently or previously supported wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations.Anthropogenic changes to land use and increases in river barriers have altered upland nutrient dynamics, with particular impacts on salmon and other migratory fish species which may be net importers of nutrients to upland streams. Declining salmon populations may further reduce nutrient sources, reducing ecosystem and fisheries productivity below desired levels.Experimental manipulations of nutrient levels have examined the impacts of this cultural oligotrophication. There is evidence that growth and biomass of juvenile salmon can be increased via appropriate additions of nutrients, offering potential as a conservation tool. However, further research is required to understand the long-term effects of these additions on salmon populations and stream ecosystems, and to assess the vulnerability of downstream habitats to eutrophication as a result.Although purposeful nutrient addition with the aim of enhancing and conserving salmonid populations may be justified in some cases, it should be undertaken in an adaptive management framework. In addition, nutrient addition should be linked to nutrient retention and processing, and integrated into large-scale habitat restoration and recovery efforts.Both the scientific and the management community should recognize that the ecological costs and benefits associated with adding nutrients to salmon streams may change in a non-stationary world.

The spatial scale of competition from recruits on an older cohort in Atlantic salmon.

Competitive effects of younger cohorts on older ones are frequently assumed to be negligible in species where older, larger individuals dominate in pairwise behavioural interactions. Here, we provide field estimates of such competition by recruits on an older age class in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), a species where observational studies have documented strong body size advantages which should favour older individuals in direct interactions. By creating realistic levels of spatial variation in the density of underyearling (YOY) recruits over a 1-km stretch of a stream, and obtaining accurate measurements of individual growth rates of overyearlings (parr) from capture-mark-recapture data on a fine spatial scale, we demonstrate that high YOY density can substantially decrease parr growth. Models integrating multiple spatial scales indicated that parr were influenced by YOY density within 16 m. The preferred model suggested parr daily mass increase to be reduced by 39% when increasing YOY density from 0.0 to 1.0 m(-2), which is well within the range of naturally occurring densities. Reduced juvenile growth rates will in general be expected to reduce juvenile survival (via increased length of exposure to freshwater mortality) and increase generation times (via increased age at seaward migrations). Thus, increased recruitment can significantly affect the performance of older cohorts, with important implications for population dynamics. Our results highlight that, even for the wide range of organisms that rely on defendable resources, the direction of competition among age classes cannot be assumed a priori or be inferred from behavioural observations alone.

The spatial scale of density-dependent growth and implications for dispersal from nests in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

By dispersing from localized aggregations of recruits, individuals may obtain energetic benefits due to reduced experienced density. However, this will depend on the spatial scale over which individuals compete. Here, we quantify this scale for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) following emergence and dispersal from nests. A single nest was placed in each of ten replicate streams during winter, and information on the individual positions (±1 m) and the body sizes of the resulting young-of-the-year (YOY) juveniles was obtained by sampling during the summer. In six of the ten streams, model comparisons suggested that individual body size was most closely related to the density within a mean distance of 11 m (range 2-26 m). A link between body size and density on such a restricted spatial scale suggests that dispersal from nests confers energetic benefits that can counterbalance any survival costs. For the four remaining streams, which had a high abundance of trout and older salmon cohorts, no single spatial scale could best describe the relation between YOY density and body size. Energetic benefits of dispersal associated with reduced local density therefore appear to depend on the abundance of competing cohorts or species, which have spatial distributions that are less predictable in terms of distance from nests. Thus, given a trade-off between costs and benefits associated with dispersal, and variation in benefits among environments, we predict an evolving and/or phenotypically plastic growth rate threshold which determines when an individual decides to disperse from areas of high local density.

Drivers of growth variation in juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): an elasticity analysis approach.

1. Estimating the relative importance of factors affecting key vital rates is an essential challenge for population ecology. In spite of a large literature on individual growth rates of north temperate-zone fishes, relative effect sizes for the wide range of abiotic and biotic factors affecting fish growth are not well characterized, strongly limiting our ability to predict the effects of environmental change on fish populations. 2. We applied generalized linear mixed models to data from a long-term (nine cohorts over 10 years) individual-based (7685 records from 4203 individuals) study of stream-dwelling juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to estimate the relative importance and interactive effects of stream discharge, water temperature and population density on season-specific growth rates. The model explained a large proportion (r(2) = 0.95) of observed variation in growth. 3. Elasticity analysis was used to estimate the relative importance of model variables on growth in length for Atlantic salmon between age 0+ autumn and the end of age 1+ winter. Effects of population density were substantially weaker than effects of discharge and temperature across all seasons. Opposing among-season temperature effects reduced the overall importance of temperature on growth in contrast to discharge, where effects were generally positive among seasons. Consistent among-season effects and a greater range of observed variation combined to increase the effect of discharge on growth compared to temperature. 4. These results suggest that robust predictions of body growth in north temperate stream fishes will need to include season-specific estimates of variation in both abiotic (temperature and discharge) and biotic (density) factors, but that variation in discharge will dominate growth responses.

Habitat-mediated foraging limitations drive survival bottlenecks for juvenile salmon.

Realistic population models and effective conservation strategies require a thorough understanding of mechanisms driving stage-specific mortality. Mortality bottlenecks for many species occur in the juvenile stage and are thought to result from limitation on food or foraging habitat during a "critical period" for growth and survival. Without a way to account for maternal effects or to measure integrated consumption rates in the field, it has been virtually impossible to test these relationships directly. Hence uncertainties about mechanisms underlying such bottlenecks remain. In this study we randomize maternal effects across sites and apply a new method for measuring consumption integrated over weeks to months to test the hypothesis that food limitation drives early-season juvenile mortality bottlenecks in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Using natural signatures of geologically derived cesium (133Cs), we estimated consumption rates of >400 fry stocked into six streams. Two to four weeks after stocking, consumption was extremely low across sites (0.005 g x g(-1) x d(-1)) and was predicted to be below maintenance rations (i.e., yielding negative energy balances) for the majority of individuals from five of six sites. However, consumption during this time was positively correlated with growth rates and survival (measured at the end of the growing season). In contrast, consumption rates increased in mid- (0.030 g x g(-1) x d(-1)) and late (0.035 g x g(-1) x d(-1)) seasons, but juvenile survival and consumption were not correlated, and correlations between growth and consumption were weak. These findings are consistent with predictions of a habitat-based bioenergetic model constructed using the actual stream positions of the individual fish in the present study, which indicates that habitat-based models capture important environmental determinants of juvenile growth and survival. Hence, by combining approaches, reducing maternal effects and controlling initial conditions, we offer a general framework for linking foraging with juvenile survival and present the first direct consumption-based evidence for the early season bottleneck hypothesis.

Nest distribution shaping within-stream variation in Atlantic salmon juvenile abundance and competition over small spatial scales.

1. Spatial heterogeneity in population density is predicted to have important effects on population characteristics, such as competition intensity and carrying capacity. Patchy breeding distributions will tend to increase spatial heterogeneity in population density, whereas dispersal from breeding patches will tend to decrease it. The potential for dispersal to homogenize densities is likely to differ both among organisms (e.g. plants vs. mobile animals) and throughout ontogeny (e.g. larvae vs. adults). However, for mobile organisms, experimental studies of the importance of breeding distributions from the wild are largely lacking. 2. In the present study, experimental manipulations replicated over eight natural streams and 2 years enabled us to test for effects of the distribution of Atlantic salmon eggs over spatial scales which are relevant to local interactions among individuals. Artificial nests were placed along 250 m study reaches at one of two levels of nest dispersion - patchy (two nests per stream) and dispersed (10 nests per stream) - while holding total egg density (eggs m(-2) stream area) constant. 3. Nest dispersion had significant effects on the spatial distribution of the resulting juveniles in their first summer. Patchy nest distributions resulted in a highly right-skewed frequency distribution of local under-yearling densities (among 25 m sampling sections), as sample sections adjacent to the nest sites had relatively high densities. In contrast, dispersed nest distributions yielded approximately normal density distributions. Sections with high relative densities in the patchy nest distribution treatments also had relatively small juvenile body sizes, and patchy egg distribution appeared to produce a higher redistribution of individuals from the first to the second juvenile growth season than the dispersed distribution. 4. Because patchy breeding distribution combined with limited early dispersal can create spatial variation in density over scales directly relevant for individual interactions, this will be one important component in determining mean levels of early juvenile competition and its spatial variation within populations. Assuming random or ideal-free distribution of individuals may therefore underestimate the mean level of density experienced by juveniles over surprisingly small spatial scales (orders of magnitude smaller than total spatial extent of populations), even for mobile organisms.

Keeping things local: Subpopulation Nb and Ne in a stream network with partial barriers to fish migration.

For organisms with overlapping generations that occur in metapopulations, uncertainty remains regarding the spatiotemporal scale of inference of estimates of the effective number of breeders (N^b) and whether these estimates can be used to predict generational Ne. We conducted a series of tests of the spatiotemporal scale of inference of estimates of Nb in nine consecutive cohorts within a long-term study of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We also tested a recently developed approach to estimate generational Ne from N^b and compared this to an alternative approach for estimating N^e that also accounts for age structure. Multiple lines of evidence were consistent with N^b corresponding to the local (subpopulation) spatial scale and the cohort-specific temporal scale. We found that at least four consecutive cohort-specific estimates of N^b were necessary to obtain reliable estimates of harmonic mean N^b for a subpopulation. Generational N^e derived from cohort-specific N^b was within 7%-50% of an alternative approach to obtain N^e, suggesting some population specificity for concordance between approaches. Our results regarding the spatiotemporal scale of inference for Nb should apply broadly to many taxa that exhibit overlapping generations and metapopulation structure and point to promising avenues for using cohort-specific N^b for local-scale genetic monitoring.

A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, autocorrelation, and time lags.

Water temperature is a primary driver of stream ecosystems and commonly forms the basis of stream classifications. Robust models of stream temperature are critical as the climate changes, but estimating daily stream temperature poses several important challenges. We developed a statistical model that accounts for many challenges that can make stream temperature estimation difficult. Our model identifies the yearly period when air and water temperature are synchronized, accommodates hysteresis, incorporates time lags, deals with missing data and autocorrelation and can include external drivers. In a small stream network, the model performed well (RMSE = 0.59°C), identified a clear warming trend (0.63 °C decade(-1)) and a widening of the synchronized period (29 d decade(-1)). We also carefully evaluated how missing data influenced predictions. Missing data within a year had a small effect on performance (∼0.05% average drop in RMSE with 10% fewer days with data). Missing all data for a year decreased performance (∼0.6 °C jump in RMSE), but this decrease was moderated when data were available from other streams in the network.

Thermal onset of cellular and endocrine stress responses correspond to ecological limits in brook trout, an iconic cold-water fish.

Climate change is predicted to change the distribution and abundance of species, yet underlying physiological mechanisms are complex and methods for detecting populations at risk from rising temperature are poorly developed. There is increasing interest in using physiological mediators of the stress response as indicators of individual and population-level response to environmental stressors. Here, we use laboratory experiments to show that the temperature thresholds in brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) for increased gill heat shock protein-70 (20.7°C) and plasma glucose (21.2°C) are similar to their proposed thermal ecological limit of 21.0°C. Field assays demonstrated increased plasma glucose, cortisol and heat shock protein-70 concentrations at field sites where mean daily temperature exceeded 21.0°C. Furthermore, population densities of brook trout were lowest at field sites where temperatures were warm enough to induce a stress response, and a co-occurring species with a higher thermal tolerance showed no evidence of physiological stress at a warm site. The congruence of stress responses and proposed thermal limits supports the use of these thresholds in models of changes in trout distribution under climate change scenarios and suggests that the induction of the stress response by elevated temperature may play a key role in driving the distribution of species.