Association between neighborhood health behaviors and body mass index in Northern Norway: evidence from the Tromsø Study.

AIM: The prevalence of overweight and obesity has risen rapidly worldwide, and the ongoing obesity pandemic is one of the most severe public health concerns in modern society. The average body mass index (BMI) of people living in Northern Norway has also steadily increased since the late 1970s. This study aimed to understand how individuals' health behavior is associated with the general health behavior of the people in their neighborhood. METHODS: Using the population-based Tromsø Study, we examined the life course association between average leisure time physical activity at the neighborhood level and the BMI of individuals living in the same neighborhood. We used a longitudinal dataset following 25,604 individuals living in 33 neighborhoods and performed a linear mixed-effects analysis. RESULTS: The results showed that participants living in neighborhoods whose residents were more physically active during their leisure time, were likely to have a significantly lower BMI (-0.9 kg/m², 95% CI -1.5 to -0.4). Also, individuals living in neighborhoods whose residents were doing mainly manual work, had significantly higher BMIs (0.7 kg/m², 95% CI 0.4-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed a strong association between the average leisure time physical activity level of neighborhood residents and the higher BMI levels of residents of the same neighborhood.

Trends in prevalence, treatment and control of hypertension in 38,825 adults over 36 years in Tromsø prospective study.

AIMS/BACKGROUND: Serial blood pressure surveys in cohort studies can inform public health policies to control blood pressure for prevention of cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: Mean levels of systolic blood pressure (SBP) were collected in six sequential surveys, involving 38,825 individuals aged 30-79 years (51% female), between 1979 and 2015 in the Tromsø Study in Norway. Mean levels of SBP, prevalence of hypertension and use of blood pressure-lowering treatment were estimated by age, sex and calendar year of survey. RESULTS: Age-specific mean levels of SBP in each decade of age increased by 20-25 mmHg in men and 30-35 mmHg in women and the prevalence of hypertension increased from 25% to 75% among adults aged 30-79 years. Among successive cohorts of adults aged 40-49 years at the time of the six surveys between 1979 and 2015, the mean levels of SBP declined by about 10 mmHg and the prevalence of hypertension declined from 46% to 25% in men and from 30% to 14% in women. The proportion of individuals with hypertension who were treated increased sixfold (from 7% to 42%) between 1979 and 2015, and the proportion of adults with hypertension that were successfully controlled also increased sixfold from 10% to 60% between 1979 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study demonstrated a halving in the age-specific prevalence of hypertension in men and women and a sixfold increase in treatment and control of hypertension, the burden of hypertension remains high among older people in Norway.

Data from national health registers as endpoints for the Tromsø Study: Correctness and completeness of stroke diagnoses.

AIM: To assess whether stroke diagnoses in national health registers are sufficiently correct and complete to replace manual collection of endpoint data for the Tromsø Study, a population-based epidemiological study. METHOD: Using the Tromsø Study Cardiovascular Disease Register for 2013-2014 as the gold standard, we calculated correctness (defined as positive predictive value, PPV) and completeness (defined as sensitivity) of stroke cases in four different data subsets derived from the Norwegian Patient Register and the Norwegian Stroke Register. We calculated the sensitivity and PPV with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) assuming a normal approximation of the binomial distribution. RESULTS: In the Norwegian Stroke Register we found a sensitivity of 79.8% (95% CI 74.2-85.4) and a PPV of 97.5% (95% CI 95.1-99.9). In the Norwegian Patient Register the sensitivity was 86.4% (95% CI 81.6-91.1) and the PPV was 84.2% (95% CI 79.2-89.2). The overall highest levels were found in a subset based on a linkage between the Norwegian Stroke Register and the Norwegian Patient Register, with a sensitivity of 88.9% (95% CI 84.5-93.3), and a PPV of 89.3% (95% CI 85.0-93.6). CONCLUSIONS: Data from the Norwegian Patient Register and from the linked data set between the Norwegian Patient Register and the Norwegian Stroke Register had acceptable levels of correctness and completeness to be considered as endpoint sources for the Tromsø Study Cardiovascular Disease Register. The benefits of using data from national registers as endpoints in epidemiological studies must be weighed against the impact of potentially decreased data quality.

Long-Term Survival, Causes of Death, and Trends in 5-Year Mortality After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The Tromsø Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data on long-term survival after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are scarce. In a population-based nested case-control study, we compared long-term survival and causes of death within 5 years in 30-day survivors of first-ever ICH and controls, assessed the impact of cardiovascular risk factors on 5-year mortality, and analyzed time trend in 5-year mortality in ICH patients over 2 decades. METHODS: We included 219 participants from the population-based Tromsø Study, who after the baseline participation had a first-ever ICH between 1994 to 2013 and 1095 age- and sex-matched participants without ICH. Cumulative survival was presented using the Kaplan-Meier method. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality and for the association between cardiovascular risk factors and 5-year mortality in 30-day survivors were estimated by stratified Cox proportional hazards models. Trend in 5-year mortality was assessed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Risk of death during follow-up (median time, 4.8 years) was increased in the ICH group compared with controls (HR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.27-2.06]). Cardiovascular disease was the leading cause of death, with a higher proportion in ICH patients (22.9% versus 9.0%; P<0.001). Smoking increased the risk of 5-year mortality in cases and controls (HR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.15-2.19]), whereas serum cholesterol was associated with 5-year mortality in cases only (HR, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.04-1.86]). Use of anticoagulants at ICH onset increased the risk of death (HR, 2.09 [95% CI, 1.09-4.00]). There was no difference according to ICH location (HR, 1.15 [95% CI, 0.56-2.37]). Five-year mortality did not change during the study period (odds ratio per calendar year, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.93-1.09]). CONCLUSIONS: Survival rates were significantly lower in cases than in controls, driven by a 2-fold increased risk of cardiovascular death. Smoking, serum cholesterol, and use of anticoagulant drugs were associated with increased risk of death in ICH patients. Five-year mortality rates in ICH patients remained stable over time.

Genome-wide Study of Atrial Fibrillation Identifies Seven Risk Loci and Highlights Biological Pathways and Regulatory Elements Involved in Cardiac Development.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure, and premature death. The pathogenesis of AF remains poorly understood, which contributes to the current lack of highly effective treatments. To understand the genetic variation and biology underlying AF, we undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 6,337 AF individuals and 61,607 AF-free individuals from Norway, including replication in an additional 30,679 AF individuals and 278,895 AF-free individuals. Through genotyping and dense imputation mapping from whole-genome sequencing, we tested almost nine million genetic variants across the genome and identified seven risk loci, including two novel loci. One novel locus (lead single-nucleotide variant [SNV] rs12614435; p = 6.76 × 10-18) comprised intronic and several highly correlated missense variants situated in the I-, A-, and M-bands of titin, which is the largest protein in humans and responsible for the passive elasticity of heart and skeletal muscle. The other novel locus (lead SNV rs56202902; p = 1.54 × 10-11) covered a large, gene-dense chromosome 1 region that has previously been linked to cardiac conduction. Pathway and functional enrichment analyses suggested that many AF-associated genetic variants act through a mechanism of impaired muscle cell differentiation and tissue formation during fetal heart development.

Association of glycated hemoglobin A1c levels with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population: results from the BiomarCaRE (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe) consortium.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers may contribute to improved cardiovascular risk estimation. Glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is used to monitor the quality of diabetes treatment. Its strength of association with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population remains uncertain. This study aims to assess the association of HbA1c with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population. METHODS: Data from six prospective population-based cohort studies across Europe comprising 36,180 participants were analyzed. HbA1c was evaluated in conjunction with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) for association with cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, and overall mortality in subjects without diabetes (N = 32,496) and with diabetes (N = 3684). RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier curves showed higher event rates with increasing HbA1c levels (log-rank-test: p < 0.001). Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between HbA1c (in mmol/mol) in the total study population and the examined outcomes. Thus, a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.31, p = 0.02) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.24, p = 0.01) for CVD incidence, and 1.09 (95% CI 1.02-1.17, p = 0.01) for overall mortality was observed per 10 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c. The association with CVD incidence and overall mortality was also observed in study participants without diabetes with increased HbA1c levels (HR 1.12; 95% CI 1.01-1.25, p = 0.04) and HR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.20, p = 0.02) respectively. HbA1c cut-off values of 39.9 mmol/mol (5.8%), 36.6 mmol/mol (5.5%), and 38.8 mmol/mol (5.7%) for cardiovascular mortality, CVD incidence, and overall mortality, showed also an increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: HbA1c is independently associated with cardiovascular mortality, overall mortality and cardiovascular disease in the general European population. A mostly monotonically increasing relationship was observed between HbA1c levels and outcomes. Elevated HbA1c levels were associated with cardiovascular disease incidence and overall mortality in participants without diabetes underlining the importance of HbA1c levels in the overall population.

Is the ongoing obesity epidemic partly explained by concurrent decline in cigarette smoking? Insights from a longitudinal population study. The Tromsø Study 1994-2016.

The increase of obesity coincides with a substantial decrease in cigarette smoking. We assessed post-cessation weight change and its contribution to the obesity epidemic in a general population in Norway. A total of 14,453 participants (52.6% women), aged 25-54 years in 1994, who attended at least two of four surveys in the Tromsø Study between 1994 and 2016, were included in the analysis. Hereof 77% participated in both the first and the last survey. Temporal trends in mean body mass index (BMI), prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and daily smoking were estimated with generalized estimation equations. We assessed BMI change by smoking status (ex-smoker, quitter, never smoker, daily smoker), and also under a scenario where none quit smoking. In total, the prevalence of daily smoking was reduced over the 21 years between Tromsø 4 (1994-1995) and Tromsø 7 (2015-2016) by 22 percentage points. Prevalence of obesity increased from 5 - 12% in 1994-1995 to 21-26% in 2015-2016, where obesity in the youngest (age 25-44 in 1994) increased more than in the oldest (p < 0.0001). Those who quit smoking had a larger BMI gain compared to the other three smoking subgroups over the 21 years (p < 0.0001). The scenario where none quit smoking would imply a 13% reduction in BMI gain in the population, though substantial age-related differences were noted. We conclude that smoking cessation contributed to the increase in obesity in the population, but was probably not the most important factor. Public health interventions should continue to target smoking cessation, and also target obesity prevention.

No additional long-term effect of group vs individual family intervention in the treatment of childhood obesity-A randomised trial.

AIM: Long-term evaluations of childhood obesity treatments are needed. We examined changes in weight and cardiometabolic risk 1 year after children completed individual family or group-based weight management interventions. METHODS: In 2009-2010, 6- to 12-year-old children with overweight or obesity from Finnmark and Troms (Norway) were recruited after media coverage and randomised to 24 months of individual family (n = 49) or group intervention (n = 48). Individual family intervention included counselling by a paediatric hospital team and a public health nurse in the local community. Group intervention included meetings with other families and a multidisciplinary hospital team, weekly physical activity sessions and a family camp. The primary outcome body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic risk factors were analysed 12 months after intervention. RESULTS: From baseline to 36 months, children's BMI increased 3.0 kg/m2 in individual family and 2.1 kg/m2 in group intervention (between-group -0.9kg/m2 , P = 0.096). Data were available from 62 children (64%). Between-group differences in C peptide (P = 0.01) were detected in favour of group intervention. Pooled data from both treatment groups showed continued decrease in BMI standard deviation score (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: No between-group difference in BMI was observed 12 months after intervention. Both groups combined showed sustained decrease in BMI standard deviation score.

Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption: combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies. FINDINGS: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively. INTERPRETATION: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council.

Drug-Eluting or Bare-Metal Stents for Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the long-term effects of contemporary drug-eluting stents versus contemporary bare-metal stents on rates of death, myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, and stent thrombosis and on quality of life. METHODS: We randomly assigned 9013 patients who had stable or unstable coronary artery disease to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the implantation of either contemporary drug-eluting stents or bare-metal stents. In the group receiving drug-eluting stents, 96% of the patients received either everolimus- or zotarolimus-eluting stents. The primary outcome was a composite of death from any cause and nonfatal spontaneous myocardial infarction after a median of 5 years of follow-up. Secondary outcomes included repeat revascularization, stent thrombosis, and quality of life. RESULTS: At 6 years, the rates of the primary outcome were 16.6% in the group receiving drug-eluting stents and 17.1% in the group receiving bare-metal stents (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88 to 1.09; P=0.66). There were no significant between-group differences in the components of the primary outcome. The 6-year rates of any repeat revascularization were 16.5% in the group receiving drug-eluting stents and 19.8% in the group receiving bare-metal stents (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.85; P<0.001); the rates of definite stent thrombosis were 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively (P=0.0498). Quality-of-life measures did not differ significantly between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing PCI, there were no significant differences between those receiving drug-eluting stents and those receiving bare-metal stents in the composite outcome of death from any cause and nonfatal spontaneous myocardial infarction. Rates of repeat revascularization were lower in the group receiving drug-eluting stents. (Funded by the Norwegian Research Council and others; NORSTENT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00811772 .).

Left atrial diameter, left ventricle filling indices, and association with all-cause mortality: Results from the population-based Tromsø Study.

AIMS: To examine the associations between diastolic dysfunction indices and long-term risk of all-cause mortality in adults over 23-year follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants (n = 2734) of the population-based Tromsø Study of Norway had echocardiography in 1994-1995. Of these 67% were repeated in 2001 and/or 2007-2008. Mortality between 1994 and 2016 was determined by linkage to the national death registry. Cox regression was used to model the hazard of all-cause mortality in relation to left atrial parameters (treated as time-dependent using repeated measurements) adjusted for traditional risk factors and cardiovascular disease. During the follow-up, 1399 participants died. Indexed left atrial diameter, mitral peak E deceleration time, and mitral peak E to peak A ratio showed an U-shaped association with all-cause mortality. Combining left atrial diameter with mitral peak E deceleration time increased the prognostic accuracy for all-cause mortality whereas adding mitral peak E to peak A ratio did not increase prognostic value. We estimated new optimal cutoff values of left atrial diameter, mitral peak E deceleration time, and mitral peak E to peak A ratio for all-cause mortality outcome. E/e' had a cubic relation to mortality. CONCLUSION: Both enlarged and small left atrial diameters were associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. A combination of Doppler-based left ventricle filling parameters had an incremental effect on all-cause mortality risk. The cutoff values of diastolic dysfunction indices we determined had similar all-cause mortality prediction ability as those recommended by American Association of Echocardiography and European Association of Cardiovascular Imaging.

Sex Differences and Similarities in Atrial Fibrillation Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Mortality in Community Cohorts: Results From the BiomarCaRE Consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe).

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease in aging populations with high comorbidity and mortality. Sex differences in AF epidemiology are insufficiently understood. METHODS: In N=79 793 individuals without AF diagnosis at baseline (median age, 49.6 years; age range, 24.1-97.6 years; 51.7% women) from 4 community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe), we examined AF incidence, its association with mortality, common risk factors, biomarkers, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, and their attributable risk by sex. Median follow-up time was 12.6 (to a maximum of 28.2) years. RESULTS: Fewer AF cases were observed in women (N=1796; 4.4%), than in men (N=2465; 6.4%). Cardiovascular risk factor distribution and lipid profile at baseline were less beneficial in men than in women, and cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in men. Cumulative incidence increased markedly after the age of 50 years in men and after 60 years in women. The lifetime risk was similar (>30%) for both sexes. Subjects with incident AF had a 3.5-fold risk of death in comparison with those without AF. Multivariable-adjusted models showed sex differences for the association of body mass index and AF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.23 in women versus 1.31; 95% CI 1.25-1.38 in men; interaction P value of 0.001). Total cholesterol was inversely associated with incident AF with a greater risk reduction in women (hazard ratio per SD, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.90 versus 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.97 in men; interaction P value of 0.023). No sex differences were seen for C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. The population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 41.9% in women and 46.0% in men. About 20% of the risk was observed for body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime risk of AF was high, and AF was strongly associated with increased mortality both in women and men. Body mass index explained the largest proportion of AF risk. Observed sex differences in the association of body mass index and total cholesterol with AF need to be evaluated for underlying pathophysiology and relevance to sex-specific prevention strategies.

The independent and joint associations of physical activity and body mass index with myocardial infarction: The Tromsø Study.

Physical activity and overweight are associated with myocardial infarction (MI). However, their joint association with MI remains unclear. Our objective was to examine the independent and joint association between leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), body mass index (BMI) and MI. This prospective cohort study included 16,572 men and women (47.5% women) aged 20-54 years who took part in the second Tromsø Study. At baseline in 1979-80 LTPA was assessed by questionnaire. Data on MI was collected and adjudicated through hospital and causes of death registries between 1979 and 2013. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the independent and joint associations between LTPA, BMI and MI. The final sample included 16,104 individuals. During a median follow up of 34 years, 1613 incident cases of MI were recorded. Physical inactivity and elevated BMI were both independently associated with MI (p for trend 0.02 and <0.001). In joint analyses, normal weight, inactive individuals had a 20% higher risk of MI compared to their active counterparts (hazard ratio (HR) 1.20 (1.02-1.41)). The highest risk of MI was seen in obese, inactive individuals when compared to normal weight, active individuals (HR 3.20 (2.30-4.44)). The risk of MI increased with increasing BMI regardless of the activity level. HRs were lower for active compared to inactive individuals within the same BMI category. The findings suggest that LTPA and BMI are independently associated with risk of MI. LTPA seems to attenuate but not eliminate the risk of MI associated with excess bodyweight.

A frameshift deletion in the sarcomere gene MYL4 causes early-onset familial atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia in man, causing substantial morbidity and mortality with a major worldwide public health impact. It is increasingly recognized as a highly heritable condition. This study aimed to determine genetic risk factors for early-onset AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We sequenced the whole genomes of 8453 Icelanders and imputed genotypes of the 25.5 million sequence variants we discovered into 1799 Icelanders with early-onset AF (diagnosed before 60 years of age) and 337 453 controls. Each sequence variant was tested for association based on multiplicative and recessive inheritance models. We discovered a rare frameshift deletion in the myosin MYL4 gene (c.234delC) that associates with early-onset AF under a recessive mode of inheritance (allelic frequency = 0.58%). We found eight homozygous carriers of the mutation, all of whom had early-onset AF. Six of the homozygotes were diagnosed by the age of 30 and the remaining two in their 50s. Three of the homozygotes had received pacemaker implantations due to sick sinus syndrome, three had suffered an ischemic stroke, and one suffered sudden cardiac death. CONCLUSIONS: Through a population approach we found a loss of function mutation in the myosin gene MYL4 that, in the homozygous state, is completely penetrant for early-onset AF. The finding may provide novel mechanistic insight into the pathophysiology of this complex arrhythmia.

Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; P<0.001) each year. This decline was driven by decreases in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in coronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; P<0.001) of the decline in total coronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events.

Declining Incidence of Ischemic Stroke: What Is the Impact of Changing Risk Factors? The Tromsø Study 1995 to 2012.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: It is proposed that 20% to 40% of the decline in first-ever stroke incidence is attributed to the improvement of risk factor control. We estimated the impact of modifiable cardiovascular risk factors on the changing incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) between 1995 and 2012, using individual person data from repeated surveys in a general population. METHODS: The proportion of the IS incidence decline explained by change in each risk factor over time was estimated from 1995 to 2012 by Poisson regression among 26 329 participants who attended the fourth Tromsø survey in 1994 to 1995. Hazard ratios for IS were estimated with Cox proportional hazards regression among 27 936 participants who attended at least 1 of the Tromsø surveys in 1994 to 1995, 2001, or 2007 to 2008. Age- and sex-adjusted means or prevalences of risk factors over time were estimated by generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: There were 1226 first-ever IS during 367 636 person-years of follow-up. Changes in cardiovascular risk factors accounted for 57% of the decrease in IS incidence from 1995 to 2012. The most important contributors were decreasing mean systolic blood pressure and smoking prevalence, accounting for 26% and 17% of the observed decline, respectively. Conversely, increasing diabetes mellitus prevalence contributed negatively to the declining IS incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in cardiovascular risk factors explained 57% of the decrease in IS incidence from 1995 to 2012. Reduction in systolic blood pressure and prevalence of smoking were the most important contributors.

Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis.

The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data encompassing 1962-2014) with more than 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative mean values of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modeling of the repeated measurements were compared with models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analyzed across studies. Compared with the single-time-point model, the cumulative means and longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (95% CI: 0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared with the single-time-point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (95% CI: 0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative-means model and 0.0177 (95% CI: 0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction.

Myocardial infarction and future risk of cancer in the general population-the Tromsø Study.

The association between myocardial infarction (MI) and future risk of incident cancer is scarcely investigated. Therefore, we aimed to study the risk of cancer after a first time MI in a large cohort recruited from a general population. Participants in a large population-based study without a previous history of MI or cancer (n = 28,763) were included and followed from baseline to date of cancer, death, migration or study end. Crude incidence rates (IRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer after MI were calculated. During a median follow-up of 15.7 years, 1747 subjects developed incident MI, and of these, 146 suffered from a subsequent cancer. In the multivariable-adjusted model (adjusted for age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, HDL cholesterol, smoking, physical activity and education level), MI patients had 46% (HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.21-1.77) higher hazard ratio of cancer compared to those without MI. The increased cancer incidence was highest during the first 6 months after the MI, with a 2.2-fold higher HR (2.15; 95% CI: 1.29-3.58) compared with subjects without MI. After a 2-year period without higher incidence rate, MI patients displayed 60% (HR 1.60; 95% CI: 1.27-2.03) higher HR of future cancer more than 3 years after the event. The increased IRs were higher in women than men. Patients with MI had a higher short- and long-term incidence rate of cancer compared to subjects without MI. Our findings suggest that occult cancer and shared risk factors of MI and cancer may partly explain the association.

N-Acetyl-ß-D-Glucosaminidase Does Not Enhance Prediction of Cardiovascular or All-Cause Mortality by Albuminuria in a Low-Risk Population.

Albuminuria is a well known risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality, but focus on renal tubular dysfunction as a potential risk factor is growing also. The association between the urinary activity of N-acetyl-ß-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) and cardiovascular risk has been assessed mostly in cross-sectional studies. We studied the cross-sectional associations between urinary NAG and cardiovascular risk factors and the longitudinal associations between NAG, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality in a general population. Urinary NAG/creatinine ratio (NAG ratio) and albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) were measured in 6834 participants of the Tromsø Study in 1994-1995. During the median 17.5 years of follow-up, 958 myocardial infarctions, 726 ischemic strokes, and 2358 deaths were registered. In multivariable analyses adjusted for albuminuria and cardiovascular risk factors, a baseline NAG ratio in the highest quartile was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.16 to 1.76), ischemic stroke (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.80), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.39 to 1.84). Combined, ACR and NAG ratio above median associated with a 48%-80% increased risk for the three end points. However, the NAG ratio did not add significantly to the baseline risk-prediction models when assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve or net reclassification improvement. In conclusion, the nonsignificant improvement of risk prediction does not support the clinical use of NAG ratio in cardiovascular risk assessment in a low-risk group.