Self-rated health in old age, related factors and survival: A 20-Year longitudinal study within the Silver-MONICA cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Self-rated health (SRH) offers insights into the evolving health demographics of an ageing population. AIM: To assess change in SRH from old age to very old age and their associations with health and well-being factors, and to investigate the association between SRH and survival. METHODS: All participants in the MONICA 1999 re-examination born before 1940 (n = 1595) were included in the Silver-MONICA baseline cohort. The Silver-MONICA follow-up started in 2016 included participants in the Silver-MONICA baseline cohort aged 80 years or older. Data on SRH was available for 1561 participants at baseline with 446 of them also participating in the follow-up. The follow-up examination included a wide variety of measurements and tests. FINDINGS: Most participants rated their health as "Quite good" (54.5 %) at baseline. Over the study period, 42.6 % had stable SRH, 40.6 % had declined, and 16.8 % had improved. Changes in SRH were at follow-up significantly associated with age, pain, nutrition, cognition, walking aid use, self-paced gait speed, lower extremity strength, independence in activities of daily living, weekly physical exercise, outdoor activity, participation in organized activities, visiting others, morale, and depressive symptoms. SRH at baseline was significantly associated with survival (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates associations between changes in SRH and a multitude of health- and wellbeing-related factors, as well as a relation between survival and SRH, accentuating their relevance within the ageing population.

Adolescent Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Risk of Cancer in Late Adulthood: Nationwide Sibling-Controlled Cohort Study.

Objective: To investigate whether the higher risks of certain cancers associated with high cardiorespiratory fitness can be explained by increased detection and unobserved confounders. Design: Nationwide sibling-controlled cohort study of adolescents. Setting: Sweden. Participants: 1 124 049 men of which 477 453 were full siblings, who underwent mandatory military conscription examinations between 1972 and 1995 at a mean age of 18.3 years. Main outcome measures: Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of overall cancer diagnosis and cancer mortality, and 14 site-specific cancers (diagnosis or death), as recorded in the Swedish National Patient Register or Cause of Death Register until 31 December 2023, modelled using flexible parametric regressions. Results: Participants were followed until a median (maximum) age of 55.9 (73.5) years, during which 98 410 were diagnosed with cancer and 16 789 had a cancer-related death (41 293 and 6908 among full siblings respectively). The most common cancers were non-melanoma skin (27 105 diagnoses & 227 deaths) and prostate cancer (24 211 diagnoses & 869 deaths). In cohort analysis, those in the highest quartile of cardiorespiratory fitness had a higher risk of prostate (adjusted HR 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.16) and skin cancer (e.g., non-melanoma HR 1.44; 1.37 to 1.50) compared to those in the lowest quartile, which led to a higher risk of any type of cancer diagnosis (HR 1.08; 1.06 to 1.11). However, those in the highest quartile had a lower risk of cancer mortality (HR 0.71; 0.67 to 0.76). When comparing full siblings, and thereby controlling for all behavioural, environmental, and genetic factors they share, the excess risk of prostate (HR 1.01; 0.90 to 1.13) and skin cancer (e.g., non-melanoma HR 1.09; 0.99 to 1.20) attenuated to the null. In contrast, the lower risk of overall cancer mortality was still statistically significant after control for such shared confounders (HR 0.78; 0.68 to 0.89). For other site-specific cancers, the influence of such confounding tended to vary, but none showed the same excess risk as prostate and non-melanoma skin cancer. Conclusions: The association between high levels of adolescent cardiorespiratory fitness and excess risk of some cancers, such as prostate and non-melanoma skin cancer, appears to be fully explained by unobserved confounders shared between full siblings. However, the protective association with cancer mortality persists even after control for such confounding.

Implications of accounting for marker-based population structure in the quantitative genetic evaluation of genetic parameters related to growth and wood properties in Norway spruce.

BACKGROUND: Forest geneticists typically use provenances to account for population differences in their improvement schemes; however, the historical records of the imported materials might not be very precise or well-aligned with the genetic clusters derived from advanced molecular techniques. The main objective of this study was to assess the impact of marker-based population structure on genetic parameter estimates related to growth and wood properties and their trade-offs in Norway spruce, by either incorporating it as a fixed effect (model-A) or excluding it entirely from the analysis (model-B). RESULTS: Our results indicate that models incorporating population structure significantly reduce estimates of additive genetic variance, resulting in substantial reduction of narrow-sense heritability. However, these models considerably improve prediction accuracies. This was particularly significant for growth and solid-wood properties, which showed to have the highest population genetic differentiation (QST) among the studied traits. Additionally, although the pattern of correlations remained similar across the models, their magnitude was slightly lower for models that included population structure as a fixed effect. This suggests that selection, consistently performed within populations, might be less affected by unfavourable genetic correlations compared to mass selection conducted without pedigree restrictions. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the results of models properly accounting for population structure are more accurate and less biased compared to those neglecting this effect. This might have practical implications for breeders and forest managers where, decisions based on imprecise selections can pose a high risk to economic efficiency.

Physical Activity Volume, Intensity, and Mortality: Harmonized Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.

INTRODUCTION: It is unclear whether moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is associated with a lower mortality risk, over and above its contribution to total physical activity volume. METHODS: 46,682 adults (mean age: 64 years) were included in a meta-analysis of nine prospective cohort studies. Each cohort generated tertiles of accelerometry-measured physical activity volume and volume-adjusted MVPA. Hazard ratios (HR, with 95% confidence intervals) for mortality were estimated separately and in joint models combining volume and MVPA. Data was collected between 2001 and 2019 and analyzed in 2023. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 9 years, 4,666 deaths were recorded. Higher physical activity volume, and a greater contribution from volume-adjusted MVPA, were each associated with lower mortality hazard in multivariable-adjusted models. Compared to the least active tertile, higher physical activity volume was associated with a lower mortality (HRs: 0.62; 0.58, 0.67 and 0.50; 0.42, 0.60 for ascending tertiles). Similarly, a greater contribution from MVPA was associated with a lower mortality (HRs: 0.94; 0.85, 1.04 and 0.88; 0.79, 0.98). In joint analysis, a lower mortality from higher volume-adjusted MVPA was only observed for the middle tertile of physical activity volume. CONCLUSIONS: The total volume of physical activity was associated with a lower risk of mortality to a greater extent than the contribution of MVPA to physical activity volume. Integrating any intensity of physical activity into daily life may lower mortality risk in middle-aged and older adults, with a small added benefit if the same amount of activity is performed with a higher intensity.

Panel stacking is a threat to consensus statement validity.

Consensus statements can be very influential in medicine and public health. Some of these statements use systematic evidence synthesis but others fail on this front. Many consensus statements use panels of experts to deduce perceived consensus through Delphi processes. We argue that stacking of panel members toward one particular position or narrative is a major threat, especially in absence of systematic evidence review. Stacking may involve financial conflicts of interest, but nonfinancial conflicts of strong advocacy can also cause major bias. Given their emerging importance, we describe here how such consensus statements may be misleading, by analyzing in depth a recent high-impact Delphi consensus statement on COVID-19 recommendations as a case example. We demonstrate that many of the selected panel members and at least 35% of the core panel members had advocated toward COVID-19 elimination (Zero-COVID) during the pandemic and were leading members of aggressive advocacy groups. These advocacy conflicts were not declared in the Delphi consensus publication, with rare exceptions. Therefore, we propose that consensus statements should always require rigorous evidence synthesis and maximal transparency on potential biases toward advocacy or lobbyist groups to be valid. While advocacy can have many important functions, its biased impact on consensus panels should be carefully avoided.