Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cirrhosis is a major cause of death and is associated with extensive health care use. Patients with cirrhosis have complex treatment choices due to risks of morbidity and mortality. To optimally counsel and treat patients with cirrhosis requires tools to predict their longer-term liver-related survival. We sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with cirrhosis with no major life-limiting comorbidities. Adults with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration were used for model training and internal validation, and external validation used the OneFlorida Clinical Research Consortium. We used four model-building approaches including variables predictive of cirrhosis-related mortality, focused on discrimination at key time points (1, 3, 5, and 10 years). Among 30,263 patients with cirrhosis ≤75 years old without major life-limiting comorbidities and complete laboratory data during the baseline period, the boosted survival tree models had the highest discrimination, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival rates of 0.77, 0.81, 0.84, and 0.88, respectively. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year discrimination was nearly identical in external validation. Secondary analyses with imputation of missing data and subgroups by etiology of liver disease had similar results to the primary model. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated (internally and externally) a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis. This score would transform management of patients with cirrhosis in terms of referral to specialty care and treatment decision-making for non-liver-related care.

Predicting survival after liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using the LiTES-HCC score.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver transplant priority in the US and Europe follows the 'sickest-first' principle. However, for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), priority is based on binary tumor criteria to expedite transplant for patients with 'acceptable' post-transplant outcomes. Newer risk scores developed to overcome limitations of these binary criteria are insufficient to be used for waitlist priority as they focus solely on HCC-related pre-transplant variables. We sought to develop a risk score to predict post-transplant survival for patients using HCC- and non-HCC-related variables. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using national registry data on adult deceased-donor liver transplant (DDLT) recipients with HCC from 2/27/02-12/31/18. We fit Cox regression models focused on 5- and 10-year survival to estimate beta coefficients for a risk score using manual variable selection. We then calculated absolute predicted survival time and compared it to available risk scores. RESULTS: Among 6,502 adult DDLT recipients with HCC, 11 variables were selected in the final model. The AUCs at 5- and 10-years were: 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.67 and 0.65, 95% CI 0.58-0.72, which was not statistically significantly different to the Metroticket and HALT-HCC scores. The LiTES-HCC score was able to discriminate patients based on post-transplant survival among those meeting Milan and UCSF criteria. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a risk score to predict post-transplant survival for patients with HCC. By including HCC- and non-HCC-related variables (e.g., age, chronic kidney disease), this score could allow transplant professionals to prioritize patients with HCC in terms of predicted survival. In the future, this score could be integrated into survival benefit-based models to lead to meaningful improvements in life-years at the population level. LAY SUMMARY: We created a risk score to predict how long patients with liver cancer will live if they get a liver transplant. In the future, this could be used to decide which waitlisted patients should get the next transplant.

Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Long-Term Survival After Liver Transplantation.

Patients are prioritized for liver transplantation (LT) under an "urgency-based" system using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. This system focuses solely on waitlist mortality, without considerations of posttransplant morbidity, mortality, and health care use. We sought to develop and internally validate a continuous posttransplant risk score during 5-year and 10-year time horizons. This retrospective cohort study used national registry data of adult deceased donor LT (DDLT) recipients with ≥90 days of pretransplant waiting time from February 27, 2002 to December 31, 2018. We fit Cox regression models at 5 and 10 years to estimate beta coefficients for a risk score using manual variable selection and calculated the absolute predicted survival time. Among 21,103 adult DDLT recipients, 11 variables were selected for the final model. The area under the curves at 5 and 10 years were 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-0.66) and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.70), respectively. The group with the highest ("best") scores had 5-year and 10-year survivals of 89.4% and 85.4%, respectively, compared with 45.9% and 22.2% for those with the lowest ("worst") scores. Our score was significantly better at predicting long-term survival compared with the existing scores. We developed and validated a risk score using nearly 17 years of data to prioritize patients with end-stage liver disease based on projected posttransplant survival. This score can serve as the building block by which the transplant field can change the entire approach to prioritizing patients to an approach that is based on considerations of maximizing benefits (ie, survival benefit-based allocation) rather than simply waitlist mortality.

Factors Associated With Lack of Long-Term Follow-Up Data After Global Cardiac Surgery Missions.

Background: Humanitarian medical missions attempt to lessen the burden of limited access to cardiac surgery in low- and middle-income countries. While organizations express difficulties obtaining follow-up information, there is currently little evidence to support the various assumptions for lack of data. This study examines the factors influencing long-term patient follow-ups on repeated short-term cardiac surgery missions across nine countries. Methods: A retrospective analysis of CardioStart International's database (RedCap) was conducted to investigate demographic, socioeconomic, and surgical factors associated with follow-ups. Results: A total of 550 pediatric (50%) and adult (50%) cardiac surgery patients displayed a follow-up rate of 14.7%, with no significant difference between populations (P = 1). Mean follow-up time was 1.5 years postoperative. Countries were highly variable, with Dominican Republic and Vietnam showing follow-up rates of 30.4% and 43.2%, respectively, while Brazil, Nepal, and Tanzania had no follow-ups (P < 0.0001). The 11 surrogate factors for socioeconomic status, including home amenities and technology access, were predominantly insignificant, with the exception of phone access showing an unexpectedly decreased follow-up rate (11.6%, P = 0.006). Surgical intervention was a significant factor (P = 0.009). No adult cardiac surgery trends were noted; however, congenital cases demonstrated increased follow-ups in patients with higher Risk Adjusted Congenital Heart Surgery scores, with ventricular septal defects (32.5%) exceeding atrial septal defects (7.3%). Conclusions: Follow-ups correlate with mission factors, including location and types of intervention, more so than previously assumed socioeconomic and technological factors. Thus, certain missions may require more allocation of resources and adapted organizational policies to overcome site-specific barriers to follow-up.

Eastern European and Asian-born populations are prone to gastric cancer: an epidemiologic analysis of foreign-born populations and gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: The highest incidence of gastric cancer is in East Asia, corresponding to a high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), yet other regions with a similarly high prevalence of H. pylori have lower cancer rates. Foreign-born persons who immigrate to the United States are thought to remain at high-risk for gastric cancer, but this has not been confirmed by large population-based studies. METHODS: We evaluated total and foreign-born populations in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Cardia and non-cardia gastric adenocarcinomas diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Generalized linear regression models determined whether the incidence of gastric cancer in each MSA was associated with specific foreign-born populations. RESULTS: Among 32 MSAs, we identified 55,937 patients with gastric adenocarcinoma. A greater percentage of Eastern European-born individuals in an MSA was associated with a higher incidence of cardia cancers (coefficient 1.32, P=0.02). Evaluating Asian-born populations alone, a greater percentage of Japanese-born individuals was associated with a higher incidence of non-cardia cancers (coefficient 2.48, P=0.03), whereas Korean or Chinese origin was not associated with a significantly higher risk. CONCLUSIONS: On a population level, a greater percentage of Eastern European-born individuals is associated with a higher incidence of cardia gastric adenocarcinomas. Among Asian-born individuals, Korean or Chinese origin was not associated with a significantly higher risk, but a greater percent of persons born in other Asian countries, including Japan, was associated with a higher incidence of non-cardia gastric adenocarcinomas in an MSA.