Rethinking how development assistance for health can catalyse progress on primary health care.

Global campaigns to control HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and vaccine-preventable illnesses showed that large-scale impact can be achieved by using additional international financing to support selected, evidence-based, high-impact investment areas and to catalyse domestic resource mobilisation. Building on this paradigm, we make the case for targeting additional international funding for selected high-impact investments in primary health care. We have identified and costed a set of concrete, evidence-based investments that donors could support, which would be expected to have major impacts at an affordable cost. These investments are in: (1) individuals and communities empowered to engage in health decision making, (2) a new model of people-centred primary care, and (3) next generation community health workers. These three areas would be supported by strengthening two cross-cutting elements of national systems. The first is the digital tools and data that support facility, district, and national managers to improve processes, quality of care, and accountability across primary health care. The second is the educational, training, and supervisory systems needed to improve the quality of care. We estimate that with an additional international investment of between US$1·87 billion in a low-investment scenario and $3·85 billion in a high-investment scenario annually over the next 3 years, the international community could support the scale-up of this evidence-based package of investments in the 59 low-income and middle-income countries that are eligible for external financing from the World Bank Group's International Development Association.

Model-Projected Cost-Effectiveness of Adult Hearing Screening in the USA.

BACKGROUND: While 60% of older adults have hearing loss (HL), the majority have never had their hearing tested. OBJECTIVE: We sought to estimate long-term clinical and economic effects of alternative adult hearing screening schedules in the USA. DESIGN: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis simulating Current Detection (CD) and linkage of persons with HL to hearing healthcare, compared to alternative screening schedules varying by age at first screen (45 to 75 years) and screening frequency (every 1 or 5 years). Simulated persons experience yearly age- and sex-specific probabilities of acquiring HL, and subsequent hearing aid uptake (0.5-8%/year) and discontinuation (13-4%). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated according to hearing level and treatment status. Costs from a health system perspective include screening ($30-120; 2020 USD), HL diagnosis ($300), and hearing aid devices ($3690 year 1, $910/subsequent year). Data sources were published estimates from NHANES and clinical trials of adult hearing screening. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-year-old persons in US primary care across their lifetime. INTERVENTION: Alternative screening schedules that increase baseline probabilities of hearing aid uptake (base-case 1.62-fold; range 1.05-2.25-fold). MAIN MEASURES: Lifetime undiscounted and discounted (3%/year) costs and QALYs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). KEY RESULTS: CD resulted in 1.20 average person-years of hearing aid use compared to 1.27-1.68 with the screening schedules. Lifetime total per-person undiscounted costs were $3300 for CD and ranged from $3630 for 5-yearly screening beginning at age 75 to $6490 for yearly screening beginning at age 45. In cost-effectiveness analysis, yearly screening beginning at ages 75, 65, and 55 years had ICERs of $39,100/QALY, $48,900/QALY, and $96,900/QALY, respectively. Results were most sensitive to variations in hearing aid utility benefit and screening effectiveness. LIMITATION: Input uncertainty around screening effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: We project that yearly hearing screening beginning at age 55+ is cost-effective by US standards.

The Impact of Hearing Loss and Its Treatment on Health-Related Quality of Life Utility: a Systematic Review with Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hearing loss significantly impacts health-related quality of life (QoL), yet the effects of current treatments on QoL utility remain uncertain. Our objective was to describe the impact of untreated and treated hearing loss on QoL utility to inform hearing healthcare policy. METHODS: We searched databases for articles published through 02/01/2021. Two independent reviewers screened for articles that reported elicitation of general QoL utility values for untreated and treated hearing loss health states. We extracted data and quality indicators from 62 studies that met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Included studies predominately used observational pre/post designs (61%), evaluated unilateral cochlear implantation (65%), administered the Health Utilities Index 3 (HUI3; 71%), and were conducted in Europe and North America (84%). In general, treatment of hearing loss improved post-treatment QoL utility when measured by most methods except the Euro-QoL 5 dimension (EQ-5D). In meta-analysis, hearing aids for adult mild-to-moderate hearing loss compared to no treatment significantly improved HUI3-estimated QoL utility (3 studies; mean change=0.11; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.07 to 0.14) but did not impact EQ-5D-estimated QoL (3 studies; mean change=0.0; 95% CI: -0.03 to 0.04). Cochlear implants improved adult QoL utility 1-year post-implantation when measured by the HUI3 (7 studies; mean change=0.17; 95% CI: 0.11 to 0.23); however, pediatric VAS-estimated QoL utility was non-significant (4 studies; mean change=0.12; 95% CI: -0.02 to 0.25). The quality of included studies was limited by failure to report missingness of data and low survey response rates. Our study was limited by heterogeneous study populations and designs. FINDINGS: Treatment of hearing loss significantly improves QoL utility, and the HUI3 and VAS were most sensitive to improvements in hearing. Improved access to hearing healthcare should be prioritized. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD42021253314.

Who benefits from tuberculosis outpatient services in Enugu state, Nigeria? A benefit incidence analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Nigeria is one of the 30 high-burden countries for TB and currently, recurrent costs of TB treatment services are largely dependent on donor-funding, with government providing the health facilities. This study aims to assess the benefit incidence of TB treatment services so as to determine if the poor and rural dwellers preferentially benefit from such services that were subsidized by government and donors. METHODS: A survey of patients (n = 202) accessing TB treatment services was conducted between 2019 and 2020 in five purposively selected rural and urban health facilities in Enugu state. Socio-economic status (SES) was estimated using household assets ownership. Benefits of TB services were measured by multiplying the unit cost of utilization of different services while the net benefit was calculated by subtracting out-of-pocket (OOP) payments incurred from the benefits. We estimated the benefit for 1 month and the benefit for the whole TB treatment course (6 months). Concentration index was used to determine the level of equity in spending across the socio-economic quintiles. RESULTS: 56.4% of the respondents were from urban facilities. 100% had used TB drugs in the past months, 73% had undergone a Gene-Xpert test, and 67% had had a consultation. All patients received TB drugs without OOP payment, but 90% paid for X-ray. Urban respondents captured a disproportionally higher share of benefit from TB services. The concentration index was -0.025 for net benefit from TB services across different quintiles, indicating the pro-poor distribution of TB services in Nigeria. CONCLUSIONS: The benefit from TB services had a pro-poor distribution, but urban respondents obtained a disproportionally higher share of gross and net benefit from TB services. Funding for TB services needs to be secured to promote the equitable access to TB services.

Addressing child health inequity through case management of under-five malaria in Nigeria: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Under-five malaria in Nigeria is a leading cause of global child mortality, accounting for 95,000 annual child deaths. High out-of-pocket medical expenditure contributes to under-five malaria mortality by discouraging care-seeking and use of effective anti-malarials in the poorest households. The significant inequity in child health outcomes in Nigeria stresses the need to evaluate the outcomes of potential interventions across socioeconomic lines. METHODS: Using a decision tree model, an extended cost-effectiveness analysis was done to determine the effects of subsidies covering the direct and indirect costs of case management of under-five malaria in Nigeria. This analysis estimates the number of child deaths averted, out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure averted, cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) averted, and cost of implementation. An optimization analysis was also done to determine how to optimally allocate money across wealth groups using different combinations of interventions. RESULTS: Fully subsidizing direct medical, non-medical, and indirect costs could annually avert over 19,000 under-five deaths, 8600 cases of CHE, and US$187 million in OOP spending. Per US$1 million invested, this corresponds to an annual reduction of 76 under-five deaths, 34 cases of CHE, and over US$730,000 in OOP expenditure. Due to low initial treatment coverage in poorer socioeconomic groups, health and financial-risk protection benefits would be pro-poor, with the poorest 40% of Nigerians accounting for 72% of all deaths averted, 55% of all OOP expenditure averted, and 74% of all cases of CHE averted. Subsidies targeted to the poor would see greater benefits per dollar spent than broad, non-targeted subsidies. In an optimization scenario, the strategy of fully subsidizing direct medical costs would be dominated by a partial subsidy of direct medical costs as well as a full subsidy of direct medical, nonmedical, and indirect costs. CONCLUSION: Subsidizing case management of under-five malaria for the poorest and most vulnerable would reduce illness-related impoverishment and child mortality in Nigeria while preserving limited financial resources. This study is an example of how focusing a targeted policy-intervention on a single, high-burden disease can yield large health and financial-risk protection benefits in a low and middle-income country context and address equity consideration in evidence-informed policymaking.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

Importance: Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID). Objective: To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration. Design, Setting, and Participants: Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022. Exposures: Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age. Results: A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Achieving global mortality reduction targets and universal health coverage: The impact of COVID-19.

Wenhui Mao and coauthors discuss possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health aspirations in low- and middle-income countries.

The Impact of Immediate Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy on Patients' Healthcare Expenditures: A Stepped-Wedge Randomized Trial in Eswatini.

Immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people living with HIV has important health benefits but implications for the economic aspects of patients' lives are still largely unknown. This stepped-wedge cluster-randomized controlled trial aimed to determine the causal impact of immediate ART initiation on patients' healthcare expenditures in Eswatini. Fourteen healthcare facilities were randomly assigned to transition at one of seven time points from the standard of care (ART eligibility below a CD4 count threshold) to the immediate ART for all intervention (EAAA). 2261 patients living with HIV were interviewed over the study period to capture their past-year out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures. In mixed-effects regression models, we found a 49% decrease (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.36, 0.72, p < 0.001) in past-year total healthcare expenditures in the EAAA group compared to the standard of care, and a 98% (RR 0.02, 95% CI 0.00, 0.02, p < 0.001) decrease in spending on private and traditional healthcare. Despite a higher frequency of HIV care visits for newly initiated ART patients, immediate ART initiation appears to have lowered patients' healthcare expenditures because they sought less care from alternative healthcare providers. This study adds an important economic argument to the World Health Organization's recommendation to abolish CD4-count-based eligibility thresholds for ART.

RESUMEN: El inicio inmediato de la terapia antirretroviral (TAR) para todas las personas que viven con VIH tiene importantes beneficios para la salud, pero aún se desconocen las implicaciones en el aspecto económico. Este ensayo controlado aleatorizado por clústers (CRT por sus siglas en inglés) por grupos en distintas etapas pretende determinar el impacto del inicio inmediato de la TAR en los gastos sanitarios de los pacientes en Eswatini. Catorce centros sanitarios fueron asignados aleatoriamente a la transición en uno de los siete periodos de la asistencia estándar (elegibilidad para la TAR en niveles definidos de recuento de CD4) a la intervención de TAR inmediato para todos (EAAA). Se entrevistó a 2.261 pacientes con VIH a lo largo del estudio para conocer sus gastos sanitarios del año anterior. Según los modelos de regresión de efectos mixtos, se observó un descenso del 49% (RR: 0,51; IC del 95%: 0,36, 0,72; p<0,001) en el gasto sanitario total del año anterior en el grupo de la EAAA, y un descenso del 98% (RR 0,02; IC del 95%: 0,00, 0,02; p<0,001) en el gasto en asistencia sanitaria privada y tradicional. A pesar de una mayor frecuencia de visitas deatención de VIH para los pacientes que recién comenzaron laTAR, la aplicación inmediata de laTAR redujo los gastos sanitarios de los pacientes dado que buscaron menos atención de proveedores de asistencia sanitaria alternativos. Este estudio añade un importante argumento económico a la recomendación de la Organización Mundial de la Salud de abolir las restricciones de elegibilidad para la terapia antirretroviral basados en el recuento de CD4.

Did the poor gain from India's health policy interventions? Evidence from benefit-incidence analysis, 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: Health policy interventions were expected to improve access to health care delivery, provide financial risk protection, besides reducing inequities that underlie geographic and socio-economic variation in population access to health care. This article examines whether health policy interventions and accelerated health investments in India during 2004-2018 could close the gap in inequity in health care utilization and access to public subsidy by different population groups. Did the poor and socio-economically vulnerable population gain from such government initiatives, compared to the rich and affluent sections of society? And whether the intended objective of improving equity between different regions of the country been achieved during the policy initiatives? This article attempts to assess and provide robust evidence in the Indian context. METHODS: Employing Benefit-Incidence Analysis (BIA) framework, this paper advances earlier evidence by highlighting estimates of health care utilization, concentration and government subsidy by broader provider categories (public versus private) and across service levels (outpatient, inpatient, maternal, pre-and post-natal services). We used 2 waves of household surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) on health and morbidity. The period of analysis was chosen to represent policy interventions spanning 2004 (pre-policy) and 2018 (post-policy era). We present this evidence across three categories of Indian states, namely, high-focus states, high-focus north eastern states and non-focus states. Such categorization facilitates quantification of reform impact of policy level interventions across the three groups. RESULTS: Utilisation of healthcare services, except outpatient care visits, accelerated significantly in 2018 from 2004. The difference in utilisation rates between poor and rich (between poorest 20% and richest 20%) had significantly declined during the same period. As far as concentration of healthcare is concerned, the Concentrate Index (CI) underlying inpatient care in public sector fell from 0.07 in 2004 to 0.05 in 2018, implying less pro-rich distribution. The CI in relation to pre-natal, institutional delivery and postnatal services in government facilities were pro-poor both in 2004 and 2018 in all 3 groups of states. The distribution of public subsidy underscoring curative services (inpatient and outpatient) remained pro-rich in 2004 but turned less pro-rich in 2018, measured by CIs which declined sharply across all groups of states for both outpatient (from 0.21 in 2004 to 0.16 in 2018) and inpatient (from 0.24 in 2004 to 0.14 in 2018) respectively. The CI for subsidy on prenatal services declined from approximately 0.01 in 2004 to 0.12 in 2018. In respect to post-natal care, similar results were observed, implying the subsidy on prenatal and post-natal services was overwhelmingly received by poor. The CI underscoring subsidy for institutional delivery although remained positive both in 2018 and 2004, but slightly increased from 0.17 in 2004 to 0.28 in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in infrastructure and service provisioning through NHM route in the public facilities appears to have relatively benefited the poor. Yet they received a relatively smaller health subsidy than the rich when utilising inpatient and outpatient health services. Inequality continues to persist across all healthcare services in private health sector. Although the NHM remained committed to broader expansion of health care services, a singular focus on maternal and child health conditions especially in backward regions of the country has yielded desired results.

The impact of continuous quality improvement on coverage of antenatal HIV care tests in rural South Africa: Results of a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled implementation trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the effectiveness of continuous quality improvement (CQI) in resource-poor settings is very limited. We aimed to establish the effects of CQI on quality of antenatal HIV care in primary care clinics in rural South Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing CQI to usual standard of antenatal care (ANC) in 7 nurse-led, public-sector primary care clinics-combined into 6 clusters-over 8 steps and 19 months. Clusters randomly switched from comparator to intervention on pre-specified dates until all had rolled over to the CQI intervention. Investigators and clusters were blinded to randomisation until 2 weeks prior to each step. The intervention was delivered by trained CQI mentors and included standard CQI tools (process maps, fishbone diagrams, run charts, Plan-Do-Study-Act [PDSA] cycles, and action learning sessions). CQI mentors worked with health workers, including nurses and HIV lay counsellors. The mentors used the standard CQI tools flexibly, tailored to local clinic needs. Health workers were the direct recipients of the intervention, whereas the ultimate beneficiaries were pregnant women attending ANC. Our 2 registered primary endpoints were viral load (VL) monitoring (which is critical for elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV [eMTCT] and the health of pregnant women living with HIV) and repeat HIV testing (which is necessary to identify and treat women who seroconvert during pregnancy). All pregnant women who attended their first antenatal visit at one of the 7 study clinics and were ≥18 years old at delivery were eligible for endpoint assessment. We performed intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses using modified Poisson generalised linear mixed effects models. We estimated effect sizes with time-step fixed effects and clinic random effects (Model 1). In separate models, we added a nested random clinic-time step interaction term (Model 2) or individual random effects (Model 3). Between 15 July 2015 and 30 January 2017, 2,160 participants with 13,212 ANC visits (intervention n = 6,877, control n = 6,335) were eligible for ITT analysis. No adverse events were reported. Median age at first booking was 25 years (interquartile range [IQR] 21 to 30), and median parity was 1 (IQR 0 to 2). HIV prevalence was 47% (95% CI 42% to 53%). In Model 1, CQI significantly increased VL monitoring (relative risk [RR] 1.38, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.57, p < 0.001) but did not improve repeat HIV testing (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.13, p = 0.958). These results remained essentially the same in both Model 2 and Model 3. Limitations of our study include that we did not establish impact beyond the duration of the relatively short study period of 19 months, and that transition steps may have been too short to achieve the full potential impact of the CQI intervention. CONCLUSIONS: We found that CQI can be effective at increasing quality of primary care in rural Africa. Policy makers should consider CQI as a routine intervention to boost quality of primary care in rural African communities. Implementation research should accompany future CQI use to elucidate mechanisms of action and to identify factors supporting long-term success. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration number NCT02626351.

Middle-income countries graduating from health aid: Transforming daunting challenges into smooth transitions.

Gavin Yamey and co-authors discuss approaches to providing support for middle-income countries transitioning away from health aid.

Which delivery model innovations can support sustainable HIV treatment?

The rapid scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV since the mid-2000s, mostly through disease-specific or "vertical" programmes, has been a highly successful undertaking, which averted millions of deaths and prevented many new infections. However, the dynamics of the HIV epidemic and changing political and financial commitment to fight the disease will likely require new models for the delivery of ART over the coming decades if the promises of universal treatment are to be met. Delivery model innovations for ART are intended to improve both the effectiveness and efficiency of the HIV treatment cascade, reaching new people who require ART and providing ART to more people without an increase in resources. We describe twelve models for ART delivery, which could be achieved through five categories of delivery innovations: integrating ART ("vertical ART plus", "partially-integrated ART" and "fully-integrated ART"); modifying steps in the ART value chain ("professional task-shifted ART", "people task-shifted ART" and "technology-supported ART"); eliminating steps in the ART value chain ("immediate ART" and "less frequent ART pick-up"); changing ART locations ("private-sector ART", "traditional-sector ART" and "ART outside the health sector"); and keeping the status quo ("vertical ART"). The different delivery model innovations are not mutually exclusive and several could be combined, such as "vertical ART plus" with "task-shifted ART". Suitability of the models will highly depend on local and national contexts, including existing health systems resources, available funding, and type of HIV epidemic. Future implementation research needs to identify which models are the best fit for different contexts.

Modest improvements in skilled birth attendants at delivery with increased Mutuelles coverage in Rwanda.

Background: We revisit the question of the role health insurance coverage played in increasing use of skilled birth attendants (SBA) at delivery in Rwanda. Previous studies have suggested that enrollment in Mutuelles health insurance increased the odds of using an SBA by up to 163%. Methods: We take advantage of latest Rwanda Demographic Health Survey (NISR M, Macro O. Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2010. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda and Ministry of Health, 2012.) to increase the sample size and extend the time frame of analysis to 5 years (2005-10). We also adopt a stronger matching method, coarsened exact matching, to control for model dependence. Results: We find that although enrollment in Mutuelles insurance increases use of SBAs at delivery, the size of the effect is an order of magnitude lower than previously published (12-18% versus 78-163%). We also find that the effect of education on use of SBA is similar in magnitude to that of Mutuelles insurance enrollment. Conclusions: Our findings lead us to conclude that Mutuelles only had a modest effect on increasing use of SBA at delivery and therefore insurance alone may not be the 'magic bullet' that solves the problem of non-use of SBA at delivery.

Health reform in Nigeria: the politics of primary health care and universal health coverage.

Over the past decade, Nigeria has seen major attempts to strengthen primary health care, through the Saving One Million Lives (SOML) initiative, and to move towards universal health care, through the National Health Act. Both initiatives were successfully adopted, but faced political and institutional challenges in implementation and sustainability. We analyse these programmes from a political economy perspective, examining barriers to and facilitators of adoption and implementation throughout the policy cycle, and drawing on political settlement analysis (PSA) to identify structural challenges which both programmes faced. The SOML began in 2012 and was expanded in 2015. However, the programme's champion left government in 2013, a key funding source was eliminated in 2015, and the programme did not continue after external funding elapsed in 2021. The National Health Act passed in 2014 after over a decade of advocacy by proponents. However, the Act's governance reforms led to conflict between health sector agencies, about both reform content and process. Nine years after the Act's passage, disbursements have been sporadic, and implementation remains incomplete. Both programmes show the promise of major health reforms in Nigeria, but also the political and institutional challenges they face. In both cases, health leaders crafted evidence-based policies and managed stakeholders to achieve policy adoption. Yet political and institutional challenges hindered implementation. Institutionally, horizontal and vertical fragmentation of authority within the sector impeded coordination. Politically, electoral cycles led to frequent turnover of sectoral leadership, while senior politicians did not intervene to support fundamental institutional reforms. Using PSA, we identify these as features of a 'competitive clientelist' political settlement, in which attempts to shift from clientelist to programmatic policies generate powerful opposition. Nonetheless, we highlight that some policymakers sought to use health reforms to change institutions at the margin, suggesting future avenues for governance-oriented health reforms.

Are households with under-five children in Nigeria socioeconomically disadvantaged?

Although the sociodemographic and economic contributors to under-five mortality are well established, very little research has been done to assess the levels of disadvantage under-five children in Nigeria face along these dimensions. Nigeria has the second-highest under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in the world (111 deaths per 1000 live births) and contributed to the highest number of annual under-five deaths globally in 2020 (844,321 deaths). The country has also implemented several decades of policy interventions to reduce under-five mortality by improving sociodemographic and economic conditions at the household level. In this paper, we assess the sociodemographic and economic disadvantages that households with children under-five face compared to other households and discuss the implications for health policy. Using the Nigeria Living Standard Survey 2018-19, we conducted a bivariate analysis to compare the sociodemographic and economic characteristics of households with and without under-five children. We performed independent samples t-test and proportions test to assess whether these sociodemographic and economic factors were significantly different for both groups. We found that households with under-five children typically had larger sizes (6.6 vs. 3.6), lower mean adult age (36.5 vs. 45.3), and male household heads (91.3% vs. 71.5%) than households without under-five children. Furthermore, households with under-five children were less likely to have access to improved drinking water (77.2% vs. 86.0%) and sanitation sources (54.0% vs. 61.9%) than those without under-five children. Despite having more adult working members, 71.2% of households with under-five children lived below the poverty line compared to 37.7% of other households. Although their total consumption expenditure was lower than households without under-five children, they spent a higher proportion of their expenditure on health care and were at a higher risk of experiencing catastrophic health expenditure. Our study has shown that households with children under five are disproportionately disadvantaged than other households in Nigeria. The households with under-five children are larger, younger, and poorer than those without children. We also show a wide variation in the proportion of households with children under five by state. Any efforts to reduce under-five mortality and morbidity in Nigeria should recognize these sociodemographic and economic differences.

Rapid growth of private hospitals in China: emerging challenges and opportunities to health sector management.

China's private hospital market has experienced rapid growth over the last decade, with private hospitals now outnumbering public hospitals by a factor of two. This policy analysis uses available data and existing literature to analyze China's rapidly changing hospital market, identify key challenges resulting from rapid private hospital growth, and present recommendations to ensure future sustainable private hospital development in the country. Our analysis shows that while private hospitals outnumber public hospitals, outpatient visits and hospitalizations remain higher among public hospitals, while per-patient expenditure remains higher among private hospitals. Key challenges to private hospital development include limited government financial support, high tax burdens, difficulty in workforce recruitment and retainment, poor government regulation and oversight, and dissipating public trust. Recommendations to address these challenges include opening government contract bidding to private hospitals, creating a system that allows private hospitals to enter national health insurance schemes, reducing tax pressure on private hospitals, defining a legal system for market entry and exit of private hospitals, improving a system of supervision, and monitoring and evaluation of private hospital operation and performance.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of screening and preventive interventions for cardiovascular disease in Myanmar: an economic modelling study.

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality in Myanmar. Despite the burden, CVD preventive services receive low government and donor budgets, which has led to poor CVD outcomes. Methods: We conducted a cost-effective analysis and a budget impact analysis on CVD prevention strategies recommended by the WHO. A Markov model was used to analyse the cost and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from healthcare provider and societal perspectives. We calculated transition probabilities from WHO CVD risk data and obtained treatment effects and costs from secondary sources. Subgroup analysis was performed on different sex and age groups. We framed the budget impact analysis from a healthcare provider perspective to assess the affordability of providing CVD preventive care. Findings: The most cost-effective strategy from the healthcare provider perspective varied. The combination of screening, primary prevention, and secondary prevention (Sc-PP-SP) (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER]: US$1574/QALY) is most cost-effective at the three times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita threshold, while at one time the GDP per capita threshold, secondary prevention is the most cost-effective strategy (ICER: US$160/QALY). Sc-PP-SP is the most cost-effective strategy from the societal perspective (ICER: US$647/QALY). Among age groups, intervention at age 45 years appeared to be the most cost-effective option for both men and women. The budget impact revealed the Sc-PP-SP would avert 55,000 acute CVD events and 28,000 CVD-related deaths with a cost of US$157 million for the first year of CVD preventive care. Interpretation: A combination of screening, primary prevention, and secondary prevention is cost-effective to reduce CVD-related deaths in Myanmar. This study provides evidence for the government and development partners to increase investment in and support for CVD prevention. These findings not only provide a basis for efficient resource allocation but also underscore the importance of adopting a total cardiovascular risk approach to CVD prevention, in alignment with global health goals. Funding: Pilot grant from Duke Global Health Institute, USA.

Differential effect of China's Zero Markup Drug Policy on provider-induced demand in secondary and tertiary hospitals.

Following the marketization of China's health system in the 1980's, the government allowed public hospitals to markup the price of certain medications by 15% to compensate for reduced revenue from government subsidies. This incentivized clinicians to induce patient demand for drugs which resulted in higher patient out-of-pocket payments, higher overall medical expenditure, and poor health outcomes. In 2009, China introduced the Zero Markup Drug Policy (ZMDP) which eliminated the 15% markup. Using Shanghai as a case study, this paper analyzes emerging and existing evidence about the impact of ZMDP on hospital expenditure and revenue across secondary and tertiary public hospitals. We use data from 150 public hospitals across Shanghai to examine changes in hospital expenditure and revenue for various health services following the implementation of ZMDP. Our analysis suggests that, across both secondary and tertiary hospitals, the implementation of ZMDP reduced expenditure on drugs but increased expenditure on medical services, exams, and tests thereby increasing hospital revenue and keeping inpatient and outpatient costs unchanged. Moreover, our analysis suggests that tertiary facilities increased their revenue at a faster rate than secondary facilities, likely due to their ability to prescribe more advanced and, therefore, more costly procedures. While rigorous experimental designs are needed to confirm these findings, it appears that ZMDP has not reduced instances of medical expenditure provoked by provider-induced demand (PID) but rather shifted the effect of PID from one revenue source to another with differential effects in secondary vs. tertiary hospitals. Supplemental policies are likely needed to address PID and reduce patient costs.