Wide mismatches in the sequences of primers and probes for monkeypox virus diagnostic assays.

Rapid and accurate diagnosis of infections is fundamental to containment of disease. Several monkeypox virus (MPV) real-time diagnostic assays have been recommended by the CDC; however, the specificity of the primers and probes in these assays for the ongoing MPV outbreak has not been investigated. We analyzed the primer and probe sequences present in the CDC recommended MPV generic real-time PCR assay by aligning those sequences against 1730 MPV complete genomes reported in 2022 worldwide. Sequence mismatches were found in 99.08% and 97.46% of genomes for the MPV generic forward and reverse primers, respectively. Mismatch-corrected primers were synthetized and compared to the generic assay for MPV detection. Results showed that the two primer-template mismatches resulted in a ~11-fold underestimation of initial template DNA in the reaction and 4-fold increase in the 95% LOD. We further evaluated the specificity of seven other real-time PCR assays used for MPV and orthopoxvirus (OPV) detection and identified two assays with the highest matching score (>99.6%) to the global MPV genome database in 2022. Genetic variations in the primer-probe regions across MPV genomes could indicate the temporal and spatial emergence pattern of monkeypox disease. Our results show that the current MPV real-time generic assay may not be optimal to accurately detect MPV, and the mismatch-corrected assay with full complementarity between primers and current MPV genomes could provide a more sensitive and accurate detection of MPV.

Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.

Wastewater surveillance has proved to be a valuable tool to track the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most studies using wastewater surveillance data revolve around establishing correlations and lead time relative to reported case data. In this perspective, we advocate for the integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic within-host and between-host models to better understand, monitor, and predict viral disease outbreaks. Dynamic models overcome emblematic difficulties of using wastewater surveillance data such as establishing the temporal viral shedding profile. Complementarily, wastewater surveillance data bypasses the issues of time lag and underreporting in clinical case report data, thus enhancing the utility and applicability of dynamic models. The integration of wastewater surveillance data with dynamic models can enhance real-time tracking and prevalence estimation, forecast viral transmission and intervention effectiveness, and most importantly, provide a mechanistic understanding of infectious disease dynamics and the driving factors. Dynamic modeling of wastewater surveillance data will advance the development of a predictive and responsive monitoring system to improve pandemic preparedness and population health.

Wastewater analysis of Mpox virus in a city with low prevalence of Mpox disease: an environmental surveillance study.

Background: Tracking infectious diseases at the community level is challenging due to asymptomatic infections and the logistical complexities of mass surveillance. Wastewater surveillance has emerged as a valuable tool for monitoring infectious disease agents including SARS-CoV-2 and Mpox virus. However, detecting the Mpox virus in wastewater is particularly challenging due to its relatively low prevalence in the community. In this study, we aim to characterize three molecular assays for detecting and tracking the Mpox virus in wastewater from El Paso, Texas, during February and March 2023. Methods: In this study, a combined approach utilizing three real-time PCR assays targeting the C22L, F3L, and F8L genes and sequencing was employed to detect and track the Mpox virus in wastewater samples. The samples were collected from four sewersheds in the City of El Paso, Texas, during February and March 2023. Wastewater data was compared with reported clinical case data in the city. Findings: Mpox virus DNA was detected in wastewater from all the four sewersheds, whereas only one Mpox case was reported during the sampling period. Positive signals were still observed in multiple sewersheds after the Mpox case was identified. Higher viral concentrations were found in the pellet than in the supernatant of wastewater. Notably, an increasing trend in viral concentration was observed approximately 1-2 weeks before the reporting of the Mpox case. Further sequencing and epidemiological analysis provided supporting evidence for unreported Mpox infections in the city. Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that the Mpox cases in the community is underestimated. The findings emphasize the value of wastewater surveillance as a public health tool for monitoring infectious diseases even in low-prevalence areas, and the need for heightened vigilance to mitigate the spread of Mpox disease for safeguarding global health. Funding: Center of Infectious Diseases at UTHealth, the University of Texas System, and the Texas Epidemic Public Health Institute. The content of this paper is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of these funding organizations.