Climate warming has direct and indirect effects on microbes associated with carbon cycling in northern lakes.

Northern lakes disproportionately influence the global carbon cycle, and may do so more in the future depending on how their microbial communities respond to climate warming. Microbial communities can change because of the direct effects of climate warming on their metabolism and the indirect effects of climate warming on groundwater connectivity from thawing of surrounding permafrost, especially at lower landscape positions. Here we used shotgun metagenomics to compare the taxonomic and functional gene composition of sediment microbes in 19 peatland lakes across a 1600-km permafrost transect in boreal western Canada. We found microbes responded differently to the loss of regional permafrost cover than to increases in local groundwater connectivity. These results suggest that both the direct and indirect effects of climate warming, which were respectively associated with loss of permafrost and subsequent changes in groundwater connectivity interact to change microbial composition and function. Archaeal methanogens and genes involved in all major methanogenesis pathways were more abundant in warmer regions with less permafrost, but higher groundwater connectivity partly offset these effects. Bacterial community composition and methanotrophy genes did not vary with regional permafrost cover, and the latter changed similarly to methanogenesis with groundwater connectivity. Finally, we found an increase in sugar utilization genes in regions with less permafrost, which may further fuel methanogenesis. These results provide the microbial mechanism for observed increases in methane emissions associated with loss of permafrost cover in this region and suggest that future emissions will primarily be controlled by archaeal methanogens over methanotrophic bacteria as northern lakes warm. Our study more generally suggests that future predictions of aquatic carbon cycling will be improved by considering how climate warming exerts both direct effects associated with regional-scale permafrost thaw and indirect effects associated with local hydrology.

Permafrost thaw causes large carbon loss in boreal peatlands while changes to peat quality are limited.

Rapid, ongoing permafrost thaw of peatlands in the discontinuous permafrost zone is exposing a globally significant store of soil carbon (C) to microbial processes. Mineralization and release of this peat C to the atmosphere as greenhouse gases is a potentially important feedback to climate change. Here we investigated the effects of permafrost thaw on peat C at a peatland complex in western Canada. We collected 15 complete peat cores (between 2.7 and 4.5 m deep) along four chronosequences, from elevated permafrost peat plateaus to saturated thermokarst bogs that thawed up to 600 years ago. The peat cores were analysed for peat C storage and peat quality, as indicated by decomposition proxies (FTIR and C/N ratios) and potential decomposability using a 200-day aerobic laboratory incubation. Our results suggest net C loss following thaw, with average total peat C stocks decreasing by ~19.3 ± 7.2 kg C m-2 over <600 years (~13% loss). Average post-thaw accumulation of new peat at the surface over the same period was ~13.1 ± 2.5 kg C m-2 . We estimate ~19% (±5.8%) of deep peat (>40 cm below surface) C is lost following thaw (average 26 ± 7.9 kg C m-2 over <600 years). Our FTIR analysis shows peat below the thaw transition in thermokarst bogs is slightly more decomposed than peat of a similar type and age in permafrost plateaus, but we found no significant changes to the quality or lability of deeper peat across the chronosequences. Our incubation results also showed no increase in C mineralization of deep peat across the chronosequences. While these limited changes in peat quality in deeper peat following permafrost thaw highlight uncertainty in the exact mechanisms and processes for C loss, our analysis of peat C stocks shows large C losses following permafrost thaw in peatlands in western Canada.

Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw.

Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.

Constraints on potential enzyme activities in thermokarst bogs: Implications for the carbon balance of peatlands following thaw.

Northern peatlands store a globally significant amount of soil organic carbon, much of it found in rapidly thawing permafrost. Permafrost thaw in peatlands often leads to the development and expansion of thermokarst bogs, where microbial activity will determine the stability of the carbon storage and the release of greenhouse gases. In this study, we compared potential enzyme activities between young (thawed ~30 years ago) and mature (~200 years) thermokarst bogs, for both shallow and deep peat layers. We found very low potential enzyme activities in deep peat layers, with no differences between the young and mature bogs. Peat quality at depth was found to be highly humified (FTIR analysis) in both the young and mature bogs. This suggests that deep, old peat was largely stable following permafrost thaw, without a rapid pulse of decomposition during the young bog stage. For near-surface peat, we found significantly higher potential enzyme activities in the young bog than in the mature-associated with differences in peat quality derived from different Sphagnum species. A laboratory incubation of near-surface peat showed that differences in potential enzyme activity were primarily influenced by peat type rather than oxygen availability. This suggested that the young bog can have higher rates of near-surface decomposition despite being substantially wetter than the mature bog. Overall, our study shows that peat properties are the dominant constraint on potential enzyme activity and that peatland site development (successional pathways and permafrost history) through its influence on peat type and chemistry is likely to determine peat decomposition following permafrost thaw.

Aged soils contribute little to contemporary carbon cycling downstream of thawing permafrost peatlands.

Vast stores of millennial-aged soil carbon (MSC) in permafrost peatlands risk leaching into the contemporary carbon cycle after thaw caused by climate warming or increased wildfire activity. Here we tracked the export and downstream fate of MSC from two peatland-dominated catchments in subarctic Canada, one of which was recently affected by wildfire. We tested whether thermokarst bog expansion and deepening of seasonally thawed soils due to wildfire increased the contributions of MSC to downstream waters. Despite being available for lateral transport, MSC accounted for ≤6% of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) pools at catchment outlets. Assimilation of MSC into the aquatic food web could not explain its absence at the outlets. Using δ13 C-Δ14 C-δ15 N-δ2 H measurements, we estimated only 7% of consumer biomass came from MSC by direct assimilation and algal recycling of heterotrophic respiration. Recent wildfire that caused seasonally thawed soils to reach twice as deep in one catchment did not change these results. In contrast to many other Arctic ecosystems undergoing climate warming, we suggest waterlogged peatlands will protect against downstream delivery and transformation of MSC after climate- and wildfire-induced permafrost thaw.

Fluvial CO2 and CH4 patterns across wildfire-disturbed ecozones of subarctic Canada: Current status and implications for future change.

Despite occupying a small fraction of the landscape, fluvial networks are disproportionately large emitters of CO2 and CH4 , with the potential to offset terrestrial carbon sinks. Yet the extent of this offset remains uncertain, because current estimates of fluvial emissions often do not integrate beyond individual river reaches and over the entire fluvial network in complex landscapes. Here we studied broad patterns of concentrations and isotopic signatures of CO2 and CH4 in 50 streams in the western boreal biome of Canada, across an area of 250,000 km2 . Our study watersheds differ starkly in their geology (sedimentary and shield), permafrost extent (sporadic to extensive discontinuous) and land cover (large variability in lake and wetland extents). We also investigated the effect of wildfire, as half of our study streams drained watersheds affected by megafires that occurred 3 years prior. Similar to other boreal regions, we found that stream CO2 concentrations were primarily associated with greater terrestrial productivity and warmer climates, and decreased downstream within the fluvial network. No effects of recent wildfire, bedrock geology or land cover composition were found. The isotopic signatures suggested dominance of biogenic CO2 sources, despite dominant carbonate bedrock in parts of the study region. Fluvial CH4 concentrations had a high variability which could not be explained by any landscape factors. Estimated fluvial CO2 emissions were 0.63 (0.09-6.06, 95% CI) and 0.29 (0.17-0.44, 95% CI) g C m-2  year-1 at the landscape scale using a stream network modelling and a mass balance approach, respectively, a small but potentially important component of the landscape C balance. These fluvial CO2 emissions are lower than in other northern regions, likely due to a drier climate. Overall, our study suggests that fluvial CO2 emissions are unlikely to be sensitive to altered fire regimes, but that warming and permafrost thaw will increase emissions significantly.

Changes in Methane Flux along a Permafrost Thaw Sequence on the Tibetan Plateau.

Permafrost thaw alters the physical and environmental conditions of soil and may thus cause a positive feedback to climate warming through increased methane emissions. However, the current knowledge of methane emissions following thermokarst development is primarily based on expanding lakes and wetlands, with upland thermokarst being studied less often. In this study, we monitored the methane emissions during the peak growing seasons of two consecutive years along a thaw sequence within a thermo-erosion gully in a Tibetan swamp meadow. Both years had consistent results, with the early and midthaw stages (3 to 12 years since thaw) exhibiting low methane emissions that were similar to those in the undisturbed meadow, while the emissions from the late thaw stage (20 years since thaw) were 3.5 times higher. Our results also showed that the soil water-filled pore space, rather than the soil moisture per se, in combination with the sand content, were the main factors that caused increased methane emissions. These findings differ from the traditional view that upland thermokarst could reduce methane emissions owing to the improvement of drainage conditions, suggesting that upland thermokarst development does not always result in a decrease in methane emissions.

A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability.

Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (FCH4 ), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season FCH4 , GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing their C sink function. Experimentally exacerbated droughts further reduced the capacity for the fen to act as a C sink by causing shifts in vegetation and thus reducing magnitude of maximum growing season GPP in subsequent flood years by ~15% compared to control plots. Conversely, water table position had only a weak influence on ER, but dominant contribution to ER switched from autotrophic respiration in wet years to heterotrophic in dry years. Droughts did not cause inter-annual lag effects on ER in this rich fen, as has been observed in several nutrient-poor peatlands. While ER was dependent on soil temperatures at 2 cm depth, FCH4 was linked to soil temperatures at 25 cm. Inter-annual variability of deep soil temperatures was in turn dependent on wetness rather than air temperature, and higher FCH4 in flooded years was thus equally due to increased methane production at depth and decreased methane oxidation near the surface. Short-term fluctuations in wetness caused significant lag effects on FCH4 , but droughts caused no inter-annual lag effects on FCH4 . Our results show that frequency and severity of droughts and floods can have characteristic effects on the exchange of greenhouse gases, and emphasize the need to project future hydrological regimes in rich fens.

Permafrost conditions in peatlands regulate magnitude, timing, and chemical composition of catchment dissolved organic carbon export.

Permafrost thaw in peatlands has the potential to alter catchment export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and thus influence downstream aquatic C cycling. Subarctic peatlands are often mosaics of different peatland types, where permafrost conditions regulate the hydrological setting of each type. We show that hydrological setting is key to observed differences in magnitude, timing, and chemical composition of DOC export between permafrost and nonpermafrost peatland types, and that these differences influence the export of DOC of larger catchments even when peatlands are minor catchment components. In many aspects, DOC export from a studied peatland permafrost plateau was similar to that of a forested upland catchment. Similarities included low annual export (2-3 g C m(-2) ) dominated by the snow melt period (~70%), and how substantial DOC export following storms required wet antecedent conditions. Conversely, nonpermafrost fens had higher DOC export (7 g C m(-2) ), resulting from sustained hydrological connectivity during summer. Chemical composition of catchment DOC export arose from the mixing of highly aromatic DOC from organic soils from permafrost plateau soil water and upland forest surface horizons with nonaromatic DOC from mineral soil groundwater, but was further modulated by fens. Increasing aromaticity from fen inflow to outlet was substantial and depended on both water residence time and water temperature. The role of fens as catchment biogeochemical hotspots was further emphasized by their capacity for sulfate retention. As a result of fen characteristics, a 4% fen cover in a mixed catchment was responsible for 34% higher DOC export, 50% higher DOC concentrations and ~10% higher DOC aromaticity at the catchment outlet during summer compared to a nonpeatland upland catchment. Expansion of fens due to thaw thus has potential to influence landscape C cycling by increasing fen capacity to act as biogeochemical hotspots, amplifying aquatic C cycling, and increasing catchment DOC export.

A synthesis of methane emissions from 71 northern, temperate, and subtropical wetlands.

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane. Here, we assess controls on methane flux using a database of approximately 19 000 instantaneous measurements from 71 wetland sites located across subtropical, temperate, and northern high latitude regions. Our analyses confirm general controls on wetland methane emissions from soil temperature, water table, and vegetation, but also show that these relationships are modified depending on wetland type (bog, fen, or swamp), region (subarctic to temperate), and disturbance. Fen methane flux was more sensitive to vegetation and less sensitive to temperature than bog or swamp fluxes. The optimal water table for methane flux was consistently below the peat surface in bogs, close to the peat surface in poor fens, and above the peat surface in rich fens. However, the largest flux in bogs occurred when dry 30-day averaged antecedent conditions were followed by wet conditions, while in fens and swamps, the largest flux occurred when both 30-day averaged antecedent and current conditions were wet. Drained wetlands exhibited distinct characteristics, e.g. the absence of large flux following wet and warm conditions, suggesting that the same functional relationships between methane flux and environmental conditions cannot be used across pristine and disturbed wetlands. Together, our results suggest that water table and temperature are dominant controls on methane flux in pristine bogs and swamps, while other processes, such as vascular transport in pristine fens, have the potential to partially override the effect of these controls in other wetland types. Because wetland types vary in methane emissions and have distinct controls, these ecosystems need to be considered separately to yield reliable estimates of global wetland methane release.

Characteristics of methane emissions from alpine thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau.

Understanding methane (CH4) emission from thermokarst lakes is crucial for predicting the impacts of abrupt thaw on the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. However, observational evidence, especially from high-altitude permafrost regions, is still scarce. Here, by combining field surveys, radio- and stable-carbon isotopic analyses, and metagenomic sequencing, we present multiple characteristics of CH4 emissions from 120 thermokarst lakes in 30 clusters along a 1100 km transect on the Tibetan Plateau. We find that thermokarst lakes have high CH4 emissions during the ice-free period (13.4 ± 1.5 mmol m-2 d-1; mean ± standard error) across this alpine permafrost region. Ebullition constitutes 84% of CH4 emissions, which are fueled primarily by young carbon decomposition through the hydrogenotrophic pathway. The relative abundances of methanogenic genes correspond to the observed CH4 fluxes. Overall, multiple parameters obtained in this study provide benchmarks for better predicting the strength of permafrost carbon-climate feedback in high-altitude permafrost regions.

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study.

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

Dissolved organic carbon in streams within a subarctic catchment analysed using a GIS/remote sensing approach.

Climate change projections show that temperature and precipitation increases can alter the exchange of greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and high latitude landscapes, including their freshwaters. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays an important role in greenhouse gas emissions, but the impact of catchment productivity on DOC release to subarctic waters remains poorly known, especially at regional scales. We test the hypothesis that increased terrestrial productivity, as indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), generates higher stream DOC concentrations in the Stordalen catchment in subarctic Sweden. Furthermore, we aimed to determine the degree to which other generic catchment properties (elevation, slope) explain DOC concentration, and whether or not land cover variables representing the local vegetation type (e.g., mire, forest) need to be included to obtain adequate predictive models for DOC delivered into rivers. We show that the land cover type, especially the proportion of mire, played a dominant role in the catchment's release of DOC, while NDVI, slope, and elevation were supporting predictor variables. The NDVI as a single predictor showed weak and inconsistent relationships to DOC concentrations in recipient waters, yet NDVI was a significant positive regulator of DOC in multiple regression models that included land cover variables. Our study illustrates that vegetation type exerts primary control in DOC regulation in Stordalen, while productivity (NDVI) is of secondary importance. Thus, predictive multiple linear regression models for DOC can be utilized combining these different types of explanatory variables.

Wildfire as a major driver of recent permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands.

Permafrost vulnerability to climate change may be underestimated unless effects of wildfire are considered. Here we assess impacts of wildfire on soil thermal regime and rate of thermokarst bog expansion resulting from complete permafrost thaw in western Canadian permafrost peatlands. Effects of wildfire on permafrost peatlands last for 30 years and include a warmer and deeper active layer, and spatial expansion of continuously thawed soil layers (taliks). These impacts on the soil thermal regime are associated with a tripled rate of thermokarst bog expansion along permafrost edges. Our results suggest that wildfire is directly responsible for 2200 ± 1500 km2 (95% CI) of thermokarst bog development in the study region over the last 30 years, representing ~25% of all thermokarst bog expansion during this period. With increasing fire frequency under a warming climate, this study emphasizes the need to consider wildfires when projecting future circumpolar permafrost thaw.

Drivers of dissolved organic carbon export in a subarctic catchment: Importance of microbial decomposition, sorption-desorption, peatland and lateral flow.

Tundra soils account for 50% of global stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), and it is expected that the amplified climate warming in high latitude could cause loss of this SOC through decomposition. Decomposed SOC could become hydrologically accessible, which increase downstream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export and subsequent carbon release to the atmosphere, constituting a positive feedback to climate warming. However, DOC export is often neglected in ecosystem models. In this paper, we incorporate processes related to DOC production, mineralization, diffusion, sorption-desorption, and leaching into a customized arctic version of the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS in order to mechanistically model catchment DOC export, and to link this flux to other ecosystem processes. The extended LPJ-GUESS is compared to observed DOC export at Stordalen catchment in northern Sweden. Vegetation communities include flood-tolerant graminoids (Eriophorum) and Sphagnum moss, birch forest and dwarf shrub communities. The processes, sorption-desorption and microbial decomposition (DOC production and mineralization) are found to contribute most to the variance in DOC export based on a detailed variance-based Sobol sensitivity analysis (SA) at grid cell-level. Catchment-level SA shows that the highest mean DOC exports come from the Eriophorum peatland (fen). A comparison with observations shows that the model captures the seasonality of DOC fluxes. Two catchment simulations, one without water lateral routing and one without peatland processes, were compared with the catchment simulations with all processes. The comparison showed that the current implementation of catchment lateral flow and peatland processes in LPJ-GUESS are essential to capture catchment-level DOC dynamics and indicate the model is at an appropriate level of complexity to represent the main mechanism of DOC dynamics in soils. The extended model provides a new tool to investigate potential interactions among climate change, vegetation dynamics, soil hydrology and DOC dynamics at both stand-alone to catchment scales.

Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones.

Methane (CH4 ) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.