The spread of cholera in western Democratic Republic of the Congo is not unidirectional from East-West: a spatiotemporal analysis, 1973-2018.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks in western Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are thought to be primarily the result of westward spread of cases from the Great Lakes Region. However, other patterns of spatial spread in this part of the country should not be excluded. The aim of this study was to explore alternative routes of spatial spread in western DRC. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to reconstruct major outbreak expansions of cholera in western DRC since its introduction in 1973. We also collected data on cholera cases reported at the health zone (HZ) scale by the national surveillance system during 2000-2018. Based on data from routine disease surveillance, we identified two subperiods (week 45, 2012-week 42, 2013 and week 40, 2017-week 52, 2018) for which the retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was implemented to detect spatiotemporal clusters of cholera cases and then to infer the spread patterns in western DRC other than that described in the literature. RESULTS: Beyond westward and cross-border spread in the West Congo Basin from the Great Lakes Region, other dynamics of cholera epidemic propagation were observed from neighboring countries, such as Angola, to non-endemic provinces of southwestern DRC. Space-time clustering analyses sequentially detected clusters of cholera cases from southwestern DRC to the northern provinces, demonstrating a downstream-to-upstream spread along the Congo River. CONCLUSIONS: The spread of cholera in western DRC is not one-sided. There are other patterns of spatial spread, including a propagation from downstream to upstream areas along the Congo River, to be considered as preferential trajectories of cholera in western DRC.

Desert dust impacts on human health: an alarming worldwide reality and a need for studies in West Africa.

High desert dust concentrations raise concerns about adverse health effects on human populations. Based on a systematic literature review, this paper aims to learn more about the relationship between desert dust and human health in the world and to analyse the place of West Africa as a study area of interest. Papers focussing on the potential relationship between dust and health and showing quantitative analyses, published between January 1999 and September 2011, were identified using the ISI Web of Knowledge database (N = 50). A number of adverse health effects, including respiratory, cardiovascular and cardiopulmonary diseases, are associated with dust. This survey highlights obvious dust impacts on human health independently of the study area, health outcomes and method. Moreover, it reveals an imbalance between the areas most exposed to dust and the areas most studied in terms of health effects. None of these studies has been conducted in West Africa, despite the proximity of the Sahara, which produces about half of the yearly global mineral dust. In view of the alarming results in many parts of the world (Asia, Europe, America), this paper concludes by stressing the importance of carrying out impact studies of Saharan dust in West Africa, where dust events are more frequent and intense than anywhere else.

Drivers of the dynamics of the spread of cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2000-2018: An eco-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The dynamics of the spread of cholera epidemics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), from east to west and within western DRC, have been extensively studied. However, the drivers of these spread processes remain unclear. We therefore sought to better understand the factors associated with these spread dynamics and their potential underlying mechanisms. METHODS: In this eco-epidemiological study, we focused on the spread processes of cholera epidemics originating from the shores of Lake Kivu, involving the areas bordering Lake Kivu, the areas surrounding the lake areas, and the areas out of endemic eastern DRC (eastern and western non-endemic provinces). Over the period 2000-2018, we collected data on suspected cholera cases, and a set of several variables including types of conflicts, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), population density, transportation network density, and accessibility indicators. Using multivariate ordinal logistic regression models, we identified factors associated with the spread of cholera outside the endemic eastern DRC. We performed multivariate Vector Auto Regressive models to analyze potential underlying mechanisms involving the factors associated with these spread dynamics. Finally, we classified the affected health zones using hierarchical ascendant classification based on principal component analysis (PCA). FINDINGS: The increase in the number of suspected cholera cases, the exacerbation of conflict events, and the number of IDPs in eastern endemic areas were associated with an increased risk of cholera spreading outside the endemic eastern provinces. We found that the increase in suspected cholera cases was influenced by the increase in battles at lag of 4 weeks, which were influenced by the violence against civilians with a 1-week lag. The violent conflict events influenced the increase in the number of IDPs 4 to 6 weeks later. Other influences and uni- or bidirectional causal links were observed between violent and non-violent conflicts, and between conflicts and IDPs. Hierarchical clustering on PCA identified three categories of affected health zones: densely populated urban areas with few but large and longer epidemics; moderately and accessible areas with more but small epidemics; less populated and less accessible areas with more and larger epidemics. CONCLUSION: Our findings argue for monitoring conflict dynamics to predict the risk of geographic expansion of cholera in the DRC. They also suggest areas where interventions should be appropriately focused to build their resilience to the disease.

Modalities and preferred routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Cholera is endemic along the Great Lakes Region, in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). From these endemic areas, also under perpetual conflicts, outbreaks spread to other areas. However, the main routes of propagation remain unclear. This research aimed to explore the modalities and likely main routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern DRC. We used historical reconstruction of major outbreak expansions of cholera since its introduction in eastern DRC, maps of distribution and spatiotemporal cluster detection analyses of cholera data from passive surveillance (2000-2017) to describe the spread dynamics of cholera from eastern DRC. Four modalities of geographic spread and their likely main routes from the source areas of epidemics to other areas were identified: in endemic eastern provinces, and in non-endemic provinces of eastern, central and western DRC. Using non-parametric statistics, we found that the higher the number of conflict events reported in eastern DRC, the greater the geographic spread of cholera across the country. The present study revealed that the dynamics of the spread of cholera follow a fairly well-defined spatial logic and can therefore be predicted.

The impact of COVID-19 on the living and survival conditions of internally displaced persons in Burkina Faso.

In recent years, as in other parts of the Sahel, the threat of terrorism has escalated in Burkina Faso. In 2019, this country hosted the fourth highest number of new conflict-related internal displaced persons (IDPs) in the world. These people have to cope simultaneously with the full spectrum of environmental, social and health-related stresses in the long, medium and short term, respectively. We seek to compare the living conditions of IDPs before and during the lockdown implemented by the authorities (between 27 March and 5 May 2020) to contain the spread of the virus. Interviews were conducted with 106 IDPs in Kongoussi (Central-Northern region). Although no respondent reported having been directly affected by the virus, 84.9% of the IDPs surveyed had no income-generating activities during the lockdown and the remaining 15.1% who continued to work reported that their activities had been greatly scaled-down. For a large majority of them, their living conditions, already described as difficult under 'normal' circumstances (insufficient food, insignificant financial assistance, or difficult access to health care), further deteriorated. In addition, IDPs were unable to leave the camps or regions where they were located to search for better living conditions or to return home. Lastly, 96.2% of respondents believed that the COVID-19 pandemic would have a negative impact on their future. These IDPs, like many in the sub-region and around the world, therefore require urgent assistance from the authorities and humanitarian NGOs, as the slightest new stress is likely to considerably worsen their already vulnerable state.

What do we know about effects of desert dust on air quality and human health in West Africa compared to other regions?

This study aims to compare, on the one hand, the geographical distribution of the desert dust source areas, their contribution to quantities emitted into the atmosphere, the trajectories and the quantities deposited, with on the other hand the areas of research interest focused on the desert dust impacts on air quality and/or human health. Based on a systematic review of the literature using the ISI Web of Knowledge database, we found 231 articles published over the last decade on the desert dust impacts on air quality. Of these, 48% concerned Asian dust and 39% Saharan dust, with the remaining 13% divided between the other dust source areas. However, only one of these studies addressed the worsening air pollution in West Africa, even though it is very close to the Sahara, the greatest contributor to the global dust budget. Moreover, there have been very few studies (41) looking at the direct links between desert dust and human health; in this context too, no interest has been shown in West Africa. Yet this region is also among the areas in which morbidity rates have been noted to be far higher than those found in other regions of the world, and where respiratory infections alone account for more than 20% of the causes of infant mortality. This survey highlights a clear imbalance between those areas most exposed to dust and the most studied areas in terms of dust impacts. Given these findings and the often alarming results published about other regions of the world, we advocate a revival of interest in research on West Africa in order to achieve a better understanding of the desert dust impacts on air quality and health among the populations of this region.